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J.K. Dobbins 2020 Outlook


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3 minutes ago, affliction said:

Keeper alert 


He’s a sure fire keeper. One of the best young backs playing for a team that loves to run the ball. RB1 next year. 

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C’mon man....u been doubting JK this whole time, and giving people bad advice to drop him. Now all of a sudden u own him?? Lmao

getting a taste of dobbins and then getting covid is similar to just the tip and no nut. The teasing needs to stop.

Damn he's got receipts

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12 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

Where does get drafted next year assuming he’s the lead back with Gus used sparingly?

I wouldn't write off gus. They'll be used most likely how they've been used these last handful of weeks without ingram. When ingram when inactive

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4 minutes ago, Eaglesflyhigh11 said:

I wouldn't write off gus. They'll be used most likely how they've been used these last handful of weeks without ingram. When ingram when inactive

You think Gus can rip off a 72 yarder like that? When you have a guy like that you give him 20-25 touches a game

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Dobbins would’ve rushed for 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs this season if he wasn’t a bench warmer the first half of the year. 

 

Definitely a fantasy pick up next year. Especially if they don’t resign Gus. 

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I'm keeping him in a league for sure but I'm expecting just RB2.   I don't think i'd feel good about him in the top 25 in PPR at the moment.   He's certainly talented enough to handle a big role, but there's just too many weeks when Lamar hogs the box score for me to want Dobbins as one of my top two players.  

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6 hours ago, BrianM said:

I'm keeping him in a league for sure but I'm expecting just RB2.   I don't think i'd feel good about him in the top 25 in PPR at the moment.   He's certainly talented enough to handle a big role, but there's just too many weeks when Lamar hogs the box score for me to want Dobbins as one of my top two players.  

 

He will probably be overdrafted by people who are expecting RB1 production.

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15 hours ago, Deuce1042 said:

Dobbins would’ve rushed for 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs this season if he wasn’t a bench warmer the first half of the year. 

 

Definitely a fantasy pick up next year. Especially if they don’t resign Gus. 

 

Why wouldn't they re-sign Gus? I assume he will be pretty cheap for them to retain and he's actually pretty decent, which pains me as a JK owner.

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15 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

Why wouldn't they re-sign Gus? I assume he will be pretty cheap for them to retain and he's actually pretty decent, which pains me as a JK owner.


Well, it’s not so much that they don’t want to. It’s that Gus might want to move elsewhere where he can get starters reps. 

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6 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

Why wouldn't they re-sign Gus? I assume he will be pretty cheap for them to retain and he's actually pretty decent, which pains me as a JK owner.

IMO Dobbins with Gus is probably a low #1RB next yr - where without Id have him in the top 5 RBs.  Big swing.  

Gus is a RFA so it depends on the market....Im hoping he gets a big offer and leaves but I think Balt sees the value in having 2 backs so if its a reasonable deal they may match....I could see Gus getting an Ekeler type deal at $6M per yr....Ingram is toast so that will give them $5M to play with....going to be interesting.  

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I feel like I have said this several times throughout the thread, but Gus is a Restricted FA...so it depends on how BAL values him, not so much other teams. BAL is not going to put an original RD tender on him, they aren't dumb. They will most likely slap him with a 2nd Rd tender--which pays him around the 2.4 MM mark, depending on the CAP. That is an affordable salary for a part-time RB, and ZERO teams are signing up to:

A)- give him to a better deal

B)- forfeit a 2nd Rd pick in order to do A)

It is just smart business to approach it as if Gus is going to be back, and with the real RB1 in BAL being Lamar.

I love Dobbins, he is an easy top 10 RB talent in the NFL and there are still scenarios in which he returns RB1-ish value...but I would not pay retail prices here. Just my .02

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On 1/4/2021 at 3:47 PM, ST. STEVEN said:

I feel like I have said this several times throughout the thread, but Gus is a Restricted FA...so it depends on how BAL values him, not so much other teams. BAL is not going to put an original RD tender on him, they aren't dumb. They will most likely slap him with a 2nd Rd tender--which pays him around the 2.4 MM mark, depending on the CAP. That is an affordable salary for a part-time RB, and ZERO teams are signing up to:

A)- give him to a better deal

B)- forfeit a 2nd Rd pick in order to do A)

It is just smart business to approach it as if Gus is going to be back, and with the real RB1 in BAL being Lamar.

I love Dobbins, he is an easy top 10 RB talent in the NFL and there are still scenarios in which he returns RB1-ish value...but I would not pay retail prices here. Just my .02

 

The man issue I have is that he going to get at most 25 catches in this offense. Thats not going to cut in full PPR.

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3 minutes ago, Evincar said:

The man issue I have is that he going to get at most 25 catches in this offense. Thats not going to cut in full PPR.

Full agree. We have enough data to show that whether it is the Roman scheme or simply Lamar's tendencies, they just hardly utilize RBs in the passing attack.

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9 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Full agree. We have enough data to show that whether it is the Roman scheme or simply Lamar's tendencies, they just hardly utilize RBs in the passing attack.

 

Most mobile QBs don't check the ball down to their RBs much. That's not a Lamar specific thing. Josh Allen might have the lowest checkdown % in the NFL. Kyler has a low check down % too. 

 

And the Ravens hardly ever run screens. 

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After all these negative pts I’ll throw out a positive spin on Dobbins. The Ravens are an extremely efficient rushing team. I don’t see him having a lot of 30 pt games but I don’t think there will be many 5-6 pt games either. 
 

my 2021 prediction 

 

1200 rushing 

200 receiving 

12 TDs 

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*beating a dead horse*  This team made be the shining example of the benefit of a RBBC attack.  You spread out enough carries between Lamar, Dobbins, and Gus (maybe a little Hill too), and how do you stop it?  Gonna be hard to find a ton of value in the backfield or predict who's going to have the big week.  Can't justify draft capital on that and deal with the headache every week.

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On 1/8/2021 at 9:42 PM, Deuce1042 said:

 

Most mobile QBs don't check the ball down to their RBs much. That's not a Lamar specific thing. Josh Allen might have the lowest checkdown % in the NFL. Kyler has a low check down % too. 

 

And the Ravens hardly ever run screens. 

 

Yeah but Buffalo and Arizona throw a lot so it offsets those low checkdown %.Ravens dont even pass much period, let alone to their RBs.

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JK Dobbins 2021 

Pros - very run efficient/committed  team which will allow for consistent weekly rushing totals and red zone opportunities. 
 

Cons - splitting carries with Lamar and Gus. Add to this the teams lack of creative check down and screen game. 
 

Conclusion - although the talent is there Dobbins will remain a mid RB2 with upside until something changes. 

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1 hour ago, Maglio said:

JK Dobbins 2021 

Pros - very run efficient/committed  team which will allow for consistent weekly rushing totals and red zone opportunities. 
 

Cons - splitting carries with Lamar and Gus. Add to this the teams lack of creative check down and screen game. 
 

Conclusion - although the talent is there Dobbins will remain a mid RB2 with upside until something changes. 

Agreed, this is my analysis of Dobbins. Lamar is going to vulture yards and rushing TD's, as will Gus Edwards if he stays. But Dobbins had 925 total yards and 9 TD's while barely being used the first six games, so next year will be interesting. 

The question is where will Dobbins be going by draft time next season. Some way too early ADP's have Dobbins as a 5th round pick which I would definitely take him at. Fourth round, maybe. Third round probably not, but RB is always so thin.

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If 2021 continues the trend of Dobbins being rarely targeted, he will be a TD dependent back.   That's not a guy you want as your top back, especially in a commitee.  

The playoffs basically proved again that the Ravens seem to win only when Lamar has big days on the ground.   If they can somehow balance him out, Dobbins comes out better, but that's a bit of a leap right now.    I think it's going to be a big offseason for Lamar to take a step as a passer.

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

If 2021 continues the trend of Dobbins being rarely targeted, he will be a TD dependent back.   That's not a guy you want as your top back, especially in a commitee.  

The playoffs basically proved again that the Ravens seem to win only when Lamar has big days on the ground.   If they can somehow balance him out, Dobbins comes out better, but that's a bit of a leap right now.    I think it's going to be a big offseason for Lamar to take a step as a passer.

 

JK Dobbins dropped three passes yesterday and was wide open. I dunno what to tell you man. 

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Going back to his November 1st breakout vs Pittsburgh, in the 10 games total including the Titans WC game, he received 11 targets. One game with five targets should not make anyone comfortable that he's getting targeted next year given how the last two months went.    Could things change?  Of course, but skepticism is warranted

 

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1 hour ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

JK Dobbins dropped three passes yesterday and was wide open. I dunno what to tell you man. 

I think this was an anomaly. You can tell he is a good pass catcher by his body language. One could argue if he was actually targeted on a regular basis this wouldn’t be an issue either. 

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