Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

J.K. Dobbins 2020 Outlook


Recommended Posts

30 minutes ago, Maglio said:

I think this was an anomaly. You can tell he is a good pass catcher by his body language. One could argue if he was actually targeted on a regular basis this wouldn’t be an issue either. 

He was wide open and dropped the ball. Right in the chest. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 921
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

C’mon man....u been doubting JK this whole time, and giving people bad advice to drop him. Now all of a sudden u own him?? Lmao

getting a taste of dobbins and then getting covid is similar to just the tip and no nut. The teasing needs to stop.

Damn he's got receipts

Posted Images

6 hours ago, Deuce1042 said:

He was wide open and dropped the ball. Right in the chest. 

Once again, if Dobbins received more passing attempts in the regular season he may have been in a more comfortable place to make these catches in a clutch spot. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Maglio said:

Once again, if Dobbins received more passing attempts in the regular season he may have been in a more comfortable place to make these catches in a clutch spot. 

 

He's a professional football player. You're acting like he never practices during the week. Lamar almost never throws to Miles Boykin and I don't ever see him dropping passes. 

 

Also the Ravens only throw the ball 25 times a game. The RB isn't exactly a priority out of the pass game. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

His ceiling will always be capped with Lamar as the QB and vulturing TDs. 

I’m not sure I buy into that narrative. Dobbins averaged 13.6 carries per game from week 8 on, as a rookie in a timeshare. Logic dictates that his carries will go up in 2021, and they will likely be right in the middle of the RB1 pack in carries per game. The fact that Baltimore runs so much in general more or less offsets the amount of carries LJ gets. 
 

As far as LJ vulturing rushing TDs, it’s really no different than traditional QB’s throwing TD passes near the goal line. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t vulture as many rushing TDs as LJ, but he throws more TDs near the goal line. Really no difference, yet Aaron Jones still scores plenty of TDs. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the LJ value “cap” probably has less to do with vulturing and more to do with a lack of passing to the RB.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I’m not sure I buy into that narrative. Dobbins averaged 13.6 carries per game from week 8 on, as a rookie in a timeshare. Logic dictates that his carries will go up in 2021, and they will likely be right in the middle of the RB1 pack in carries per game. The fact that Baltimore runs so much in general more or less offsets the amount of carries LJ gets. 
 

As far as LJ vulturing rushing TDs, it’s really no different than traditional QB’s throwing TD passes near the goal line. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t vulture as many rushing TDs as LJ, but he throws more TDs near the goal line. Really no difference, yet Aaron Jones still scores plenty of TDs. 

Yes it is different... Dobbins losses a lot of the prime carriers to LJ in red zone. You can't say the same for other high end RB's that have traditional QBs. It's not like Balt only runs in the RZ, they still have to balance pass and run. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

Yes it is different... Dobbins losses a lot of the prime carriers to LJ in red zone. You can't say the same for other high end RB's that have traditional QBs. It's not like Balt only runs in the RZ, they still have to balance pass and run. 

Dobbins losing prime carries in the red zone to LJ is no different than Aaron Jones losing prime carries to Rodgers who chooses to throw more instead of run.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Dobbins losing prime carries in the red zone to LJ is no different than Aaron Jones losing prime carries to Rodgers who chooses to throw more instead of run.

That's a good point. The other thing in favor of Dobbins is that, while he'll get vultured plenty by LJ and Edwards, the team also won't throw often from in close, so they will probably end up scoring more rushing TDs overall than any other team. 

I think the lack of consistent pass catching volume is the biggest concern for JK, whether that's his fault or the offense's fault. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Dobbins losing prime carries in the red zone to LJ is no different than Aaron Jones losing prime carries to Rodgers who chooses to throw more instead of run.

Aaron Jones had 38 carriers in the RZ this season, 13th most in the league. Lamar had 30 carriers in the RZ, 19th in the league. Dobbins is 29th on the list with 25 and Edwards also had 25. My point is Dobbins will always have less opportunities then other feature backs simply because his QB eats there to.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, BMcP said:

I think the LJ value “cap” probably has less to do with vulturing and more to do with a lack of passing to the RB.

Exactly. Im not sure how people view Lamar as a negative when it comes to running production.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/19/2021 at 4:20 PM, Fried Pork Grind said:

Yes it is different... Dobbins losses a lot of the prime carriers to LJ in red zone. You can't say the same for other high end RB's that have traditional QBs. It's not like Balt only runs in the RZ, they still have to balance pass and run. 

The Ravens don’t use Lamar as a rusher in the red zone anymore than they do their other RBs. JK just rode the bench half the year when they were still playing Ingram. 

Edited by Deuce1042
Link to post
Share on other sites

yall r missing a point of LJ "capping" dobbins. Sure Lj may or not vulture few rushing TDs, but the main talking point here should be the fact LJ still rushes a lot between 20s. That's main reason why dobbins upside is capped. His QB runs as often as a general star RB's backup and thats without mentioning gus who is the 1B starter. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/19/2021 at 4:34 PM, Lamont Sanford said:

Dobbins losing prime carries in the red zone to LJ is no different than Aaron Jones losing prime carries to Rodgers who chooses to throw more instead of run.

True, but that changed in the second half of the season where Dobbins scored 8 TDs in his last 8 games (including playoffs).

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/20/2021 at 9:00 PM, cincythunder said:

yall r missing a point of LJ "capping" dobbins. Sure Lj may or not vulture few rushing TDs, but the main talking point here should be the fact LJ still rushes a lot between 20s. That's main reason why dobbins upside is capped. His QB runs as often as a general star RB's backup and thats without mentioning gus who is the 1B starter. 

The point you’re missing is that many of those LJ runs between the 20’s would otherwise be passing plays were LJ a more traditional QB. LJ isn’t stealing carries from JK, he’s stealing pass attempts from himself. I mean sure, JK’s upside may be “capped” because he won’t get a Derrick Henry type workload, but few RBs do anymore. 

Based on his usage over the second half of 2020, and the expected increase in usage in year two as the lead RB from week 1, Dobbins is likely going to receive mid-range RB1 average carries per game in 2021. With his ability and efficiency, and even a small role in the passing game, that could be good enough for mid-high-end RB1 numbers. If that means his upside is capped, ok I guess.🤷🏻‍♂️

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

The point you’re missing is that many of those LJ runs between the 20’s would otherwise be passing plays were LJ a more traditional QB.

You are right, but I think it's also a bit of a moot point, and in the end you both don't say something drastically different: in the Ravens system, the RBs still have a good chunk of yardage, but if you take into account that LJax takes 1000-1200 yds, they're suddenly not that run-heavy as a team (they'd be between the Packers and the Eagles, more or less).

image.png.ff64033b64ba396b7c882fa7213e333e.png

Bottom line, between LJax, the system and them apparently running sort of a RBBC, I don't see Dobbins getting a 1500 yds season, although he is extremely talented. Him being drafted by the Ravens was a crime to Fantasy (*).

(* But in real football terms a pretty solid move)

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

You are right, but I think it's also a bit of a moot point, and in the end you both don't say something drastically different: in the Ravens system, the RBs still have a good chunk of yardage, but if you take into account that LJax takes 1000-1200 yds, they're suddenly not that run-heavy as a team (they'd be between the Packers and the Eagles, more or less).

image.png.ff64033b64ba396b7c882fa7213e333e.png

Bottom line, between LJax, the system and them apparently running sort of a RBBC, I don't see Dobbins getting a 1500 yds season, although he is extremely talented. Him being drafted by the Ravens was a crime to Fantasy (*).

(* But in real football terms a pretty solid move)

Well said. Though, I do wonder if the emergence of a talented back like Dobbins combined with a huge long-term contract for LJ will result in a slight offensive philosophy shift.
 

The last thing Baltimore wants to do is give LJ this massive contract only to see him break his leg, tear his ACL, etc. With a back like Dobbins, it makes a lot of sense to scale back LJ’s role as a rusher a bit and give Dobbins a larger share of the rushing work, with Edwards having a role as well. I’m not suggesting LJ isn’t going to run, as that’s clearly a key to his game. I’m suggesting a more subtle shift that sees Dobbins’ carries increase, and LJ’s role as a rusher used more judiciously. 
 

We’ll see. I just think the ownership and coaching staff will have to start wondering if it makes sense to continue putting the franchise QB at increased risk over and over again when they have one of the most promising young RBs in the league in the backfield. 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/28/2021 at 1:55 AM, Boudewijn said:

You are right, but I think it's also a bit of a moot point, and in the end you both don't say something drastically different: in the Ravens system, the RBs still have a good chunk of yardage, but if you take into account that LJax takes 1000-1200 yds, they're suddenly not that run-heavy as a team (they'd be between the Packers and the Eagles, more or less).

image.png.ff64033b64ba396b7c882fa7213e333e.png

Bottom line, between LJax, the system and them apparently running sort of a RBBC, I don't see Dobbins getting a 1500 yds season, although he is extremely talented. Him being drafted by the Ravens was a crime to Fantasy (*).

(* But in real football terms a pretty solid move)

Tell you what though, Aaron Jones is a 1/2 round talent, as is (was?) Sanders.  The data in this graph debunks the notion Dobbins doesn't get volume based on LJax - he gets the same or more volume as other high ranked RBs.  Great chart.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

1200 rushing 200 receiving 12 TDs. 
 

I will stick with these previous predicted numbers. He lacks the huge upside as the other young RBs drafted in his range due to lack of passing game work. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
On 1/28/2021 at 1:55 AM, Boudewijn said:

You are right, but I think it's also a bit of a moot point, and in the end you both don't say something drastically different: in the Ravens system, the RBs still have a good chunk of yardage, but if you take into account that LJax takes 1000-1200 yds, they're suddenly not that run-heavy as a team (they'd be between the Packers and the Eagles, more or less).

image.png.ff64033b64ba396b7c882fa7213e333e.png

Bottom line, between LJax, the system and them apparently running sort of a RBBC, I don't see Dobbins getting a 1500 yds season, although he is extremely talented. Him being drafted by the Ravens was a crime to Fantasy (*).

(* But in real football terms a pretty solid move)


this is true but you just took away all qb rushing yards for one team and none of the others. Take away wentz, hurtz 500 yards. Rodgers 150 yards, Murray’s 700 yards, cams 600 yards., taysom hills 500 yards away And the ravens are still a top 3-4 rushing team meaning dobbins should have plenty of opportunities in a still Very run heavy offense... but I agree with  you 1500 yards is awful lofty and LJ doesn’t check down often. One thing that gives me hope besides the high TD numbers he could get is his long run ability. Even with limited carries he was #4 on the league with runs over 20 yards with 11. Henry led the league with 21 but had well over twice the carries dobbins had.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...