Cam Akers 2020 Outlook

[smeeze 6,164]

RIP Darrell Henderson hype train, 2019-2020.

Cam Akers was picked #52 overall by the Rams to replace Todd Gurley.

Akers was the #1 RB recruit in the country out of high school but got stuck on a crappy Florida State team with a crappy OL. He managed to succeed despite his situation and seems like a perfect fit for the Rams offense.

Where do you guys have him in relation to the other rookie backs for dynasty purposes?

[Proteus 3,797]

1 hour ago, smeeze said:

DWhere do you guys have him in relation to the other rookie backs for dynasty purposes?

All things considered I might have him at #1. Could change after others lose competition in their respective backfields, but right now he edges the others due to weaker comp for touches.

[smeeze 6,164]

3 minutes ago, Proteus said:

All things considered I might have him at #1. Could change after others lose competition in their respective backfields, but right now he edges the others due to weaker comp for touches.

I think I have him 3rd right now behind Taylor/CEH but I could understand the case for him over those 2.

[joshua18 7,029]

Don’t see why he’d be ahead of Dobbins. Malcolm Brown and Henderson is as bad of a RBBC as BAL, behind a worse OL, worse defense, and worse QB.

[Impreza178 6,046]

52 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

Don’t see why he’d be ahead of Dobbins. Malcolm Brown and Henderson is as bad of a RBBC as BAL, behind a worse OL, worse defense, and worse QB.

It’s not really a committee tho.... 

when Akers is ready he’ll get all the work he can handle. (Up to 250 touches rookie year).   They rode Brown for times and then Gurley when he was healthy enough. The other backs will fill in the gaps.   
 

more of an immediate role for Akers VS Dobbins behind Ingram until Ingram can be cut for 1.5M dead cap after 2020.  Long term it’s hard to say which is better. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Impreza178

[JE7HorseGod 2,689]

The interior blocking is still bad.

Then again it was for him at FSU too.

[Impreza178 6,046]

Just now, JE7HorseGod said:

The interior blocking is still bad.

Then again it was for him at FSU too.

Yah he’ll be right at home 😆 

[dontclapGonorrhea 374]

He isn't even 21 yet. In dynasty this is a great pick. The Rams haven't addressed their biggest problem with that offensive line. Not sure what to make of his 2020 value yet, but the Rams are rebuilding and their picks are terrible this year and next year. They will have more cap next year, so long term value Akers is a buy for me. 

[Fort4242 744]

#4 in dynasty behind CEH, Taylor and Dobbins.

[SharkSwimmer 4,947]

Really nice landing spot for Akers imo.  Henderson and Brown lol gettouttahere with that nonsense.  Easily number one rookie running back for 2020 in terms of talent + landing spot.  Down the road (2021 and beyond) it seems like Taylor and Dobbins will have a chance to catch up to Akers, and maybe pass him by.

Edited April 27, 2020 by SharkSwimmer

[MrCantaloupe 569]

On 4/25/2020 at 8:38 AM, dontclapGonorrhea said:

He isn't even 21 yet. In dynasty this is a great pick. The Rams haven't addressed their biggest problem with that offensive line. Not sure what to make of his 2020 value yet, but the Rams are rebuilding and their picks are terrible this year and next year. They will have more cap next year, so long term value Akers is a buy for me. 

Youth does not a great dynasty pick make, nor a rebuilding team with a problem offensive line. But for the sake of context..

Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Age 22 (born 5/4/97)

Joshua Kelley - Age 22 (born 11/20/98)

Zach Moss - Age 22 (born 12/15/97)

Lamical Perine - Age 22 - (born 1/30/98)

Anthony McFarland Jr. - Age 22 (born 3/4/98)

A.J. Dillon - Age 21 (born 5/2/98)

Antonio Gibson - Age 21 (born 6/23/98)

Darrynton Evans - Age 21 (born 7/9/98)

J.K. Dobbins - Age 21 (born 12/17/98)

D'Andre Swift - Age 21 (born 1/14/99)

Jonathan Taylor - Age 21 (born 1/19/99)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Age 21 (born 4/11/99)

Eno Benjamin - Age 21 (born 4/13/99)

Cam Akers - Age 20 (born 6/22/99)

[Rush2112 4,317]

Either Henderson or Brown will be the #1 for them. They have far more experience. 

[JE7HorseGod 2,689]

9 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Either Henderson or Brown will be the #1 for them. They have far more experience. 

Brown maybe.  Hendo's got all of 35 NFL carries under his belt.

[Impreza178 6,046]

46 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

Youth does not a great dynasty pick make, nor a rebuilding team with a problem offensive line. But for the sake of context..

Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Age 22 (born 5/4/97)

Joshua Kelley - Age 22 (born 11/20/98)

Zach Moss - Age 22 (born 12/15/97)

Lamical Perine - Age 22 - (born 1/30/98)

Anthony McFarland Jr. - Age 22 (born 3/4/98)

A.J. Dillon - Age 21 (born 5/2/98)

Antonio Gibson - Age 21 (born 6/23/98)

Darrynton Evans - Age 21 (born 7/9/98)

J.K. Dobbins - Age 21 (born 12/17/98)

D'Andre Swift - Age 21 (born 1/14/99)

Jonathan Taylor - Age 21 (born 1/19/99)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Age 21 (born 4/11/99)

Eno Benjamin - Age 21 (born 4/13/99)

Cam Akers - Age 20 (born 6/22/99)

So being an old rookie is an advantage? 🤔 

 

the things you learn on RW.....

[bhawks489 3,678]

1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

So being an old rookie is an advantage? 🤔 

 

the things you learn on RW.....

They are wise beyond their months

[Boudewijn 4,636]

39 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

1 hour ago, MrCantaloupe said:

Youth does not a great dynasty pick make

 

So being an old rookie is an advantage? 🤔 

 

That's not what he said, or implied.

Do you need a chart for that?

[SharkSwimmer 4,947]

I am the one who said I don't need a chart, in a different thread.  I also don't need a chart to tell me that career plugger Malcolm Brown and scatback Darrel Henderson pose around zero threat to Akers starting, and primary, role.

[Boudewijn 4,636]

No worries, it was a joke between me and Impreza.

 

 

 

Of course in the meantime I _did_ make a chart... but I'll spare you that.

[bhawks489 3,678]

49 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

No worries, it was a joke between me and Impreza.

 

 

 

Of course in the meantime I _did_ make a chart... but I'll spare you that.

Thats a gif that came up for "give me"

Edited April 28, 2020 by bhawks489

[Boudewijn 4,636]

1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

Thats a gif that came up for "give me"

Well it might be a bit disappointing.

This is for the top 150 RBs over the past 20 years the career rushing and receiving yards (and career AV just because). RBs drafted at age 21 do around 20-30% better in general than the 22/23 yos. The problem with the 24 and 20 years olds draftees in this chart is that there are so few of them. In this group only 7 were drafted at 24, and only 2 at 20: Dion Lewis (2011) and Ronnie Hillman (2012). That makes the data quite shaky (if not irrelevant).

But in general you can say it's of some benefit for the long term value to be drafted at 21 rather than 23, and that makes sense as the peak age for RBs is quite young.

[JE7HorseGod 2,689]

5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Well it might be a bit disappointing.

This is for the top 150 RBs over the past 20 years the career rushing and receiving yards (and career AV just because). RBs drafted at age 21 do around 20-30% better in general than the 22/23 yos. The problem with the 24 and 20 years olds draftees in this chart is that there are so few of them. In this group only 7 were drafted at 24, and only 2 at 20: Dion Lewis (2011) and Ronnie Hillman (2012). That makes the data quite shaky (if not irrelevant).

But in general you can say it's of some benefit for the long term value to be drafted at 21 rather than 23, and that makes sense as the peak age for RBs is quite young.

[MrCantaloupe 569]

10 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Well it might be a bit disappointing.

This is for the top 150 RBs over the past 20 years the career rushing and receiving yards (and career AV just because). RBs drafted at age 21 do around 20-30% better in general than the 22/23 yos. The problem with the 24 and 20 years olds draftees in this chart is that there are so few of them. In this group only 7 were drafted at 24, and only 2 at 20: Dion Lewis (2011) and Ronnie Hillman (2012). That makes the data quite shaky (if not irrelevant).

But in general you can say it's of some benefit for the long term value to be drafted at 21 rather than 23, and that makes sense as the peak age for RBs is quite young.

 

It makes sense that younger players are more likely to have longer careers and thus, greater career totals. I would be more interested in analyzing their early career success (maybe their first 3 years). Having said that, I think this data does show something we already know - drafting older prospects is kinda risky.

Keep in mind, since the rookie wage scale was instituted in 2012, the average age of NFL draft prospects has dropped substantially. Players have little incentive to stay in college and improve their draft stock, instead they try to get into the pros as quickly as possible and set the clock in motion for their second contract. From 2000 - 2011, an average of 49 underclassmen entered the draft per year. Since then, the average has nearly doubled (87 per year from 2012-2018, 103 in 2019, and 99 in 2020). Sure, there are justifiable cases after 2012 where prospects decided to go back to school to compete for a championship, finish their degree, maybe they were in the military, etc., but I feel like most of the time these players would have entered the draft if they were ready at a younger age. As a scout, I would be concerned that their college production was a product of their advanced age, experience, and more developed bodies.

Because of this, I am more interested in looking at the last 9 years of data, instead of the last 20. I hypothesize that NFL performance among players drafted at age 20,21 is very similar, with maybe a bit of a decline around age 22, and a fairly sharp decline thereafter - around age 23+.

Take a look at these 1st round and 2nd round QB prospects (from 2012 on) and their ages at the time they were drafted. I italicized and crossed out the 2012 prospects from the list because the rookie wage scale was instituted in July 2011 - they were likely unaware of the rookie wage scale when they decided to go back to school and forego entering the 2011 NFL draft. I also highlighted in bold the players who were past or approaching their 23rd birthday. It's an interesting list..

 

Andrew Luck (22.61) ... likely should/would have entered at age 21

Robert Griffin III (22.19) ... likely should/would have entered draft at age 21

Ryan Tannehill (23.74) ... would have been approaching age 23 in 2011 draft 

Brandon Weeden (28.53)

EJ Manuel (23.12)

Geno Smith (22.56) - 2nd Round - 39 overall

Blake Bortles (22.04)

Johnny Manziel (21.43)

Teddy Bridgewater (21.50)

Derek Carr (23.13) - 2nd Round - 36 overall

Jameis Winston (21.33)

Marcus Mariota (21.51)

Jared Goff (21.55)

Carson Wentz (23.34)

Paxton Lynch (22.22)

Mitchell Trubisky (22.70) ☹️

Deshaun Watson (21.63)

Patrick Mahomes (21.62)

DeShone Kizer (21.33) - 2nd Round - 52 overall

Baker Mayfield (23.05)

Sam Darnold (20.90)

Josh Allen (21.95)

Josh Rosen (21.22)

Lamar Jackson (21.31)

Kyler Murray (21.73)

Daniel Jones (21.93)

Dwayne Haskins (21.99)

Joe Burrow (23.38) 

Tua Tagovailoa (22.16)

Justin Herbert (22.14)

Jordan Love (21.49)

 

Edit: Jalen Hurts (21.73) - 2nd Round - 53 Overall

I think that's everyone.

Edited April 28, 2020 by MrCantaloupe

[Boudewijn 4,636]

4 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

Take a look at these 1st round and 2nd round QB prospects

I looked specifically for RB prospects. QB is an entirely different ballgame, and I expect it to look very different. I don't have time right now but I'll take another look tomorrow.

Your comment regarding 2012 makes sense, so I'll also compare that, but in general I always try to get a reasonably large data set. The fewer players you look at, the more important the anomalies become.

[MrCantaloupe 569]

1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

I looked specifically for RB prospects. QB is an entirely different ballgame, and I expect it to look very different. I don't have time right now but I'll take another look tomorrow.

Your comment regarding 2012 makes sense, so I'll also compare that, but in general I always try to get a reasonably large data set. The fewer players you look at, the more important the anomalies become.

 

Right - I know I should have focused on running backs, but I'm fairly certain the divide will be much less pronounced and difficult to see in a simple list of names. Thought the QB list would at least highlight the point I was trying to make, regarding prospects entering the draft sooner.

At the end of the day, I am very high on Cam Akers in redraft and dynasty - I just believe his being the youngest RB prospect is irrelevant with so many other top RB prospects born only a few months before.

[Proteus 3,797]

On 4/25/2020 at 8:28 AM, smeeze said:

I think I have him 3rd right now behind Taylor/CEH but I could understand the case for him over those 2.

After listening to more talk about the Rams bewildering decision not to improve their OLine, I still like Akers, but I think I’m with you on this pecking order, mostly because I think Goff under duress equals a lower scoring offense than hoped for.