Cam Akers 2020 Outlook

[Benjamin1984 563]

I think stashing him (and players in general a lot of the time) would matter more if this was a bad team he was playing for. The Rams are almost certainly a playoff team and while the offense has not been great the 2 RBs in front of him have been fine. They are 7th in rushing yards per game. It's just a tough sell to change much right now I guess. It's just not a good situation for fantasy production for him. Wrong team, wrong year.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Benjamin1984

[Olliemets 472]

Fully healthy and no touches for 2 straight weeks, even last night in a blowout. Last night he finally got a carry but it was negated by a penalty. Was really high on him in the preseason, but It’s clear he’s a drop with Henderson looking very good and Brown not going away. Maybe worth a spec add coming out of the week 9 bye to see if anything changes, but it’s just not his year.

[dannyz6969 151]

[...] he will never be the main guy or bellcow, this is a 3 way split with Henderson being top dog and Brown always in the mix. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

[Islanderman 251]

I fell for the hype again.  Another rookie RB.  I actually took him over Kareem Hunt in our draft.  Thats my season in a nutshell.

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

If you look at virtually every combine measurable he and Henderson were virtually identical, with Henderson just edging him out. Henderson was also a little more productive in college. I really have no idea why they drafted Akers. 

[Gohawks 10,221]

1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

If you look at virtually every combine measurable he and Henderson were virtually identical, with Henderson just edging him out. Henderson was also a little more productive in college. I really have no idea why they drafted Akers. 

Because Henderson sucked last season?

[Prezkot 496]

1 hour ago, Islanderman said:

I fell for the hype again.  Another rookie RB.  I actually took him over Kareem Hunt in our draft.  Thats my season in a nutshell.

 

James Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson and D'Andre Swift have all started really strong. It's been a good year for rookie RBs.

Cam could still be a fantasy winner in the Rams system if injuries break his way in the next couple of weeks, but odds aren't good.

Not all rookie RBs are put in a system to succeed right away. Sometimes it takes an injury, sometimes they end up just being insurance.

[Spyplane 1,604]

Cam has talent but he may be a season away from making a splash.

[harck 478]

Completely drop-able in redraft. Unless Henderson gets injured, he will not see any play. Even then I expect McVay to go 80% Brown in that case. He's riding his rookie season on the bench.

Edited October 27, 2020 by harck

[Vendetta 528]

He's got to be a drop in most redraft leagues at this point - he's shown no signs of life, and you basically have to hope Henderson gets injured just so Akers has a chance at reaching Henderson's current value, which isn't at all a given because Malcolm Brown could also grab a larger share of the pie in that scenario.

[LongBalls 1,193]

As noted, he's not even really the cuff. Brown should be owned after Henderson. I'm somewhat suspicious they'll get Akers more involved after the bye week, but no reason to hold him through it.

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

14 minutes ago, LongBalls said:

As noted, he's not even really the cuff. Brown should be owned after Henderson. I'm somewhat suspicious they'll get Akers more involved after the bye week, but no reason to hold him through it.

That's really the issue we should be discussing right now. I'm a big handcuff guy, but are we even sure he takes Henderson's role were he to get hurt? We could easily be looking at 50/50 or even 60/40 Brown, which would still make Akers worthless. 

[Benjamin1984 563]

3 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

That's really the issue we should be discussing right now. I'm a big handcuff guy, but are we even sure he takes Henderson's role were he to get hurt? We could easily be looking at 50/50 or even 60/40 Brown, which would still make Akers worthless. 

Yes Akers is still the cuff to me. I have Henderson/Akers in my leagues. Akers would slide into Hendersons's role I'm pretty sure or very close to Henderson's role. This was the first game Brown had double digit carries since Week 2. He's the middle man between the 2. If Akers had run away with the job I think Henderson would be much like Akers right now. Malcolm Brown's pass protection, leadership and football acumen are why he's playing so much. I'd be surprised if they changed his role too much unless both Akers and Henderson got hurt. If you don't have Henderson, Akers doesn't need to be owned right now for sure.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Benjamin1984

[StevenSC400 1,002]

Wow people still holding on? Lol

[Benjamin1984 563]

2 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Wow people still holding on? Lol

Only Henderson owners I think lol. Even most of them have probably bailed by now.

[Vendetta 528]

5 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Wow people still holding on? Lol

It can be hard to give up on early draft picks. 😕

[StevenSC400 1,002]

7 minutes ago, Benjamin1984 said:

Only Henderson owners I think lol. Even most of them have probably bailed by now.

 

3 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

It can be hard to give up on early draft picks. 😕

It’s not like this guy was a first to third round pick. He was a mid round pick in most leagues. I have Henderson and I have zero interest in rostering Akers. He hasn’t had any work at all they don’t trust him in pass protection if Henderson were to get injured brown is the guy to own. They trust him too much. Akers is the odd man out here.

Edited October 28, 2020 by StevenSC400

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

25 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Wow people still holding on? Lol

 

19 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

It can be hard to give up on early draft picks. 😕

Very true. Can also depend on what's available on your waiver wire. I'm in just a 10-teamer and the best players available at each position are Beasley, Ebron, and Hines. Other RBs would be guys like Duke Johnson and Rex Burkhead. 

I have very little faith that Akers will do anything this year, but for teams who are fine depth wise he could still conceivably be the best flyer available in some leagues. 

[StevenSC400 1,002]

3 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

 

Very true. Can also depend on what's available on your waiver wire. I'm in just a 10-teamer and the best players available at each position are Beasley, Ebron, and Hines. Other RBs would be guys like Duke Johnson and Rex Burkhead. 

I have very little faith that Akers will do anything this year, but for teams who are fine depth wise he could still conceivably be the best flyer available in some leagues. 

If he is the best guy available sure keep him. But I personally wouldn’t hesitate to drop him for a defense of the week if my good defense had a bad matchup for example. Using the waiver wire to get wins now is more important than holding a guy who’s odds of doing anything this year are slim to none.

[Benjamin1984 563]

26 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

 

It’s not like this guy was a first to third round pick. He was a mid round pick in most leagues. I have Henderson and I have zero interest in rostering Akers. He hasn’t had any work at all they don’t trust him in pass protection if Henderson were to get injured brown is the guy to own. They trust him too much. Akers is the odd man out here.

I didn't draft any of them personally. I scooped up Henderson when everyone faded him and then picked up Akers when everyone dropped him. I just see it a little differently though. I think Akers would get the bulk or at least as many carries. Brown has been getting the majority of passing work either way here but in my opinion his role would be largely the same. If Henderson were to go down Akers would definitely be getting a solid workload. This is 100% a run first team. I think I've gotten rid of him in a place or two where I have Henderson but he does have a pathway to a fairly big role.

[KennyWoo 3,323]

A lot of rookies have a hard time earning the trust of the coaching staff.  For RBs, that's usually because of pass protection.  I'm guessing Akers can't pass protect.  Maybe he'll learn; maybe he'll never be able to do it.  

Malcolm Brown gets run because he has the 100% trust of the coaching staff in pass pro.  Brown has played 232 snaps.  Hendo and Akers have been hurt at various times so it's not a straight comparison but they've played 235 snaps combined.  Now, snap counts don't always translate into touches, etc., and not all touches are equal for fantasy, etc.  But the fact is that Brown has been on the field about 50% of the time and I don't really see him ever projecting below around 40%.  (He has one game at 38% this year; in four of seven games he's at 49% or more.)  In six of seven Rams games this season, Brown has had touches + targets of nine or more.  That's a significant bite out of any RB and I don't see Akers usurping anything from Brown.  I see the Rams depth chart as:

1a.  The Non-Brown Role.

1b.  Brown.  (This includes the majority of passing game work; Brown has 19 targets to 14 combined for Hendo/Akers so far.  That's a touch below 60% of all RB targets.)

So Hendo and Akers are basically fighting for their share of that "1a" slice, which is going to be between 50% and 70% of the touches/targets in any given game.  So that's Akers's ceiling this season, and it can probably only be realized if Hendo is hurt.  Of course, if Brown gets injured, who knows what happens.

P.S.  What about goal line?  Henderson and Brown have scored three goal line TDs each.  If we define "goal line" as inside the 10 yard line, here are the carry counts so far this season: Henderson 16; Brown 8.  So that "1a" role would appear to have more TD upside, although Brown converted on first and goal from the 1 in Week 7 so it isn't as if Henderson has taken it all over.

[Benjamin1984 563]

24 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

A lot of rookies have a hard time earning the trust of the coaching staff.  For RBs, that's usually because of pass protection.  I'm guessing Akers can't pass protect.  Maybe he'll learn; maybe he'll never be able to do it.  

Malcolm Brown gets run because he has the 100% trust of the coaching staff in pass pro.  Brown has played 232 snaps.  Hendo and Akers have been hurt at various times so it's not a straight comparison but they've played 235 snaps combined.  Now, snap counts don't always translate into touches, etc., and not all touches are equal for fantasy, etc.  But the fact is that Brown has been on the field about 50% of the time and I don't really see him ever projecting below around 40%.  (He has one game at 38% this year; in four of seven games he's at 49% or more.)  In six of seven Rams games this season, Brown has had touches + targets of nine or more.  That's a significant bite out of any RB and I don't see Akers usurping anything from Brown.  I see the Rams depth chart as:

1a.  The Non-Brown Role.

1b.  Brown.  (This includes the majority of passing game work; Brown has 19 targets to 14 combined for Hendo/Akers so far.  That's a touch below 60% of all RB targets.)

So Hendo and Akers are basically fighting for their share of that "1a" slice, which is going to be between 50% and 70% of the touches/targets in any given game.  So that's Akers's ceiling this season, and it can probably only be realized if Hendo is hurt.  Of course, if Brown gets injured, who knows what happens.

P.S.  What about goal line?  Henderson and Brown have scored three goal line TDs each.  If we define "goal line" as inside the 10 yard line, here are the carry counts so far this season: Henderson 16; Brown 8.  So that "1a" role would appear to have more TD upside, although Brown converted on first and goal from the 1 in Week 7 so it isn't as if Henderson has taken it all over.

This is 110% how I read this backfield as well. This is the best written thing I have read on here in a while. Not because it supports what I think but because I don't think there's any way I could have put it this well. Bravo.

[nb009 932]

There have been so many 2nd round RB busts (real life not fantasy) in recent memory. Who's to say Cam Akers isn't trending towards being one of those? I keep hanging on to this idea that he's definitely a stud in the making just needs playing time, but I realize I have nothing to base this off of and he can very well be dogging it in practice.

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

20 minutes ago, nb009 said:

There have been so many 2nd round RB busts (real life not fantasy) in recent memory. Who's to say Cam Akers isn't trending towards being one of those? I keep hanging on to this idea that he's definitely a stud in the making just needs playing time, but I realize I have nothing to base this off of and he can very well be dogging it in practice.

He is not a stud in the making, I can assure you that. I really don't know why they drafted him. He's a very ordinary RB. Nothing jumps off the page. I guess he was pretty physical in college but what guys quickly realize is it's a whole different ballgame running with that style with the size of guys in the NFL. Often leads to injury. 

[MJJ28 1,133]

28 minutes ago, nb009 said:

There have been so many 2nd round RB busts (real life not fantasy) in recent memory. Who's to say Cam Akers isn't trending towards being one of those? I keep hanging on to this idea that he's definitely a stud in the making just needs playing time, but I realize I have nothing to base this off of and he can very well be dogging it in practice.

I mean, he’s essentially played one game. Second round RBs bust all the time, but even the worst busts, guys like Bishop Sankey and Ameer Abdullah, still got to start for 10-20 games.

It’s hard to imagine he’s been bad in practice given he was the starting RB in weeks 1 and 2. You don’t just make a rookie RB a starter for no reason.

He might turn out to be a bust, but at some point he will get a chance to prove his worth, that is all but guaranteed. He’s not just going to get 2 snaps a game for the rest of the year and exit the NFL.

He’s an injured rookie and the run game is working pretty well right now. All of last year’s Rams rookies sat, and all of this year’s Rams rookies are currently sitting. It’s probably not going to happen this week or the next, or maybe even this year at all, but he will see legitimate run at some point, guaranteed.

Edited October 28, 2020 by MJJ28