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Antonio Gibson 2020 Outlook


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Man do I LOVE this thread... these posters come in weekly to try and throw water on Gibson then immediately get embarrassed the following week. See you around 8 tonight, get ready to eat. 

Listen, I'm going to have to agree with the "realists" in here. Take away all three of his touchowns, his 7 targets, 5 receptions, and his four longest runs and he is JAG. Not really seeing anything s

I see the "realists" are putting on the full court press ahead of this game against Pittsburgh. I saw the same EXACT narrative for James Robinson last week who (by the way) bowling balled his way to 1

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7 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Someone needs to dump some cold water on this hype train lmao. 

No beat reporter or player has made a negative remark—ergo, the ascent must continue daily.

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49 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Hes their new Chris Thompson/Tarik Cohen. Nothing wrong with that. Could have an occasional blowup game. I dont know what some people in this thread are smoking though. 

How can you even say he’s this? At least Thompson (health aside) and Cohen have actually proven themselves and had WAY more reps in college.

Simply put, you can’t treat a guy with ONLY 33 carries his entire college career as your typical rookie hype RB with an opportunity 


stature and ability wise he could only be a slightly bsetter version of Cordarelle Patterson.

 

Definite buyer beware in the 6th and above.

 

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4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

How can you even say he’s this? At least Thompson (health aside) and Cohen have actually proven themselves and had WAY more reps in college.

Simply put, you can’t treat a guy with ONLY 33 carries his entire college career as your typical rookie hype RB with an opportunity 


stature and ability wise he could only be a slightly bsetter version of Cordarelle Patterson.

 

Definite buyer beware in the 6th and above.

 


Have you watched his senior bowl? I think you should.

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18 hours ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

By the way people keep saying Gibson is 6'0. He's 6'2. He's a big bodied WR. 


Actually, according to the combine results, he’s 6’1”. And he’s a RB for Washington. 

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

So this guy had 33 carries in college, but according to AP he’s now he’s going to be a workhorse RB in the NFL? Something isn’t adding up. 


I don’t believe he’ll be a workhorse. I think Love is actually going to get a fair amount of run this year, and part of me almost expects a very poor-man’s Kamara-Ingram scenario...Gibson getting 120-150 carries and a significant number of targets and Love getting 180-200 carries. 

Fwiw, two of the FantasyFootballers podcast predict Gibson to get nearly 200 carries. If he does and gets the expected pass game involvement, he’ll end up with some nice numbers. 

Personally, I think the hype train needs to slow down a bit...but it’s RW. Lol. 

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30 minutes ago, Magoo said:

How can you even say he’s this? At least Thompson (health aside) and Cohen have actually proven themselves and had WAY more reps in college.

Simply put, you can’t treat a guy with ONLY 33 carries his entire college career as your typical rookie hype RB with an opportunity 


stature and ability wise he could only be a slightly bsetter version of Cordarelle Patterson.

 

Definite buyer beware in the 6th and above.

 

The bolded isn't accurate, yet it is commonly used.  He also went to a junior college and was used in all sorts of ways there also. 

 https://247sports.com/Video/Sophomore-Year-ECCC-7826754/

I think he is such an interesting talent that coaches did not want to limit what they could do with him.  Even though he did not have a true position, he was highly efficient with his touches.  I think that is easier to project than the number of touches.

As for trying to figure if he's only a slightly better version of CP - CP came into the NFL a first rounder and branded a WR.  They insisted he be a WR.  He was also given special teams touches to use his gifts when it was obvious he could not play at this level as a stand alone WR.  CP has been a highly efficient per touch player, but he did not receive this level of catering to his skillset like Gibson is receiving.  If he had, it's possible we would have a better comparison for Gibson than David Johnson. 

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11 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

Oh nooo, it's C.Mike train returning to get in on the action

063822d49b65e262e5bff1ddb7a0ba4d--seahawks-trains.jpg

 

I'm in STL and watched him play a few games for the StL Battlehawks xfl team, he still lives lol. Was outperformed by matt jones too

I think  I might actually take a shot on this kid in ppr in the 5th

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Just now, Flyman75 said:


I don’t believe he’ll be a workhorse. I think Love is actually going to get a fair amount of run this year, and part of me almost expects a very poor-man’s Kamara-Ingram scenario...Gibson getting 120-150 carries and a significant number of targets and Love getting 180-200 carries. 

Fwiw, two of the FantasyFootballers podcast predict Gibson to get nearly 200 carries. If he does and gets the expected pass game involvement, he’ll end up with some nice numbers. 

Personally, I think the hype train needs to slow down a bit...but it’s RW. Lol. 

 

I'm still trying to figure out a lot more about this particular RB situation since it seems really weird after the release of one of the best RBs in NFL history and their next-best RB Guice.

Like, they HAVE to have a plan after doing that, and AP seemed to allude to that fact when he mentioned Gibson.

For the life of me, I wish I understood AP-speak...I'm still trying to figure out exactly what he meant by:

[Cont] "..young guys some reps, but I didn’t know I was going to get cut, there was no indication. Today (Ron) Rivera just said this is always tough, but yes we’re gonna release you & go with this offensive style. I respect coach. Look (Antonio) Gibson is a hell of a talent...2/4

[Cont] "...This system really fits him. I feel like I can do that pony style too, more as a receiving back. We were all working on it, but they really want one main guy to do it & they drafted Gibson for it."

Basically sounds to me that Antonio Gibson is their moveable chess piece and they want to do with him what they did in Carolina with Christian McCaffrey.  Dallas called it a "web-back" when they tried to do that with Tavon Austin.  The difference is Carolina with Rivera was successful at implementing it, so there's solid reasoning (and now opportunity with AP gone) to be excited here.

Now, here's a good article about Christian McCaffrey and the effect having him on the field in various positions in the formation can have on the defense (and getting other offensive players open if the defense gives them that):

https://www.panthers.com/news/how-christian-mccaffrey-helped-create-plays-for-others-19355466

Basically it sounds like the rest of the RBs will mostly do more RB-oriented things, and Antonio Gibson will be running all around the formation as the moveable mismatch creator.

When AP said "pony style, more as a receiving back", I think what he was meaning wasn't so much that they want a workhorse RB like we think of in fantasy (or "bellcow").  Instead he was more alluding to two different roles in the backfield:

1A Christian McCaffrey role where the RB is moved all over the formation and has a heavy emphasis on catching passes.  Almost certainly sees greater than 50% of the overall RB touches.

1b: This is a more traditional RB role, and could even be broken down further into speed versus short-yardage.  Speed would be Bryce Love in limited doses as he comes along from his injury, with Peyton Barber being the short-yardage in minimal doses.  Either could spell Antonio Gibson depending on the situation on the field as needed, and either could be put on the field at the same time as Antonio Gibson (I'm imagining they want to combine Bryce Love's speed element on the field at the same time as moving Antonio Gibson around in double-RB formations to put the defense in difficult situations where they start to lose track of offensive players).

===============

But what are we projecting for the role?  What are we anticipating in our fantasy scorecards?

Some rough comparisons to consider:

Ray Rice:
2009: 254 Carries / 1,339 Rushing Yards | 101 Targets / 78 Receptions / 702 Receiving Yards | 7 Rushing TDs / 1 Receiving TD
2010: 308 Carries / 1,223 Rushing Yards |  82 Targets / 63 Receptions / 556 Receiving Yards | 5 Rushing TDs / 1 Receiving TD
2011: 291 Carries / 1,364 Rushing Yards | 104 Targets / 76 Receptions / 704 Receiving Yards | 12 Rushing TDs / 3 Receiving TDs
2012: 257 Carries / 1,143 Rushing Yards | 83 Targets / 61 Receptions / 478 Receiving Yards | 9 Rushing TDs / 1 Receiving TD

Brian Westbrook: (15 or fewer games per season)
2004: 177 Carries / 812 Rushing Yards | ?? Targets / 73 Receptions / 703 Receiving Yards | 3 Rushing TDs / 6 Receiving TDs
2005: 156 Carries / 617 Rushing Yards | ?? Targets / 61 Receptions / 616 Receiving Yards | 3 Rushing TDs / 4 Receiving TDs
2006: 240 Carries / 1,217 Rushing Yards | ?? Targets / 77 Receptions / 691 Receiving Yards | 7 Rushing TDs / 4 Receiving TDs
2007: 278 Carries / 1,333 Rushing Yards | ?? Targets / 90 Receptions / 771 Receiving Yards | 7 Rushing TDs / 5 Receiving TDs
2008: 233 Carries / 936 Rushing Yards | ?? Targets / 54 Receptions / 402 Receiving Yards | 9 Rushing TDs / 5 Receiving TDs

Christian McCaffrey:
2017: 117 Carries / 435 Rushing Yards | 113 Targets / 80 Receptions / 651 Receiving Yards | 2 Rushing TDs / 5 Receiving TDs
2018: 219 Carries / 1,098 Rushing Yards | 124 Targets / 107 Receptions / 867 Receiving Yards | 7 Rushing TDs / 6 Receiving TDs
2019: 287 Carries / 1,387 Rushing Yards | 142 Targets / 116 Receptions / 1,005 Receiving Yards | 15 Rushing TDs / 4 Receiving TDs

Alvin Kamara:
2017:
120 Carries / 728 Rushing Yards | 100 Targets / 81 Receptions / 826 Receiving Yards | 8 Rushing TDs / 5 Receiving TDs
2018: 194 Carries / 883 Rushing Yards | 105 Targets / 81 Receptions / 709 Receiving Yards | 14 Rushing TDs / 4 Receiving TDs
2019: 171 Carries / 797 Rushing Yards | 97 Targets / 81 Receptions / 533 Receiving Yards | 5 Rushing TDs / 1 Receiving TD

Ray Rice was a workhorse, bellcow RB.

David Johnson's standout season would likely also be in that area:

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/230/david-johnson/stats

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25 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

When AP said "pony style, more as a receiving back", I think what he was meaning wasn't so much that they want a workhorse RB like we think of in fantasy (or "bellcow").  Instead he was more alluding to two different roles in the backfield:

 

Thanks for this.  I had no idea what pony style meant.  But totally makes sense.  Not a horse, but a smaller type, thus the pony.

 

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This thread...

 

Gibson owner: Antonio Gibson is incredibly athletic and he's quite large and powerful.

AP owner:

anigif_sub-buzz-29873-1504623885-1.gif

Gibson owner: Antonio Gibson played phenomenal in college when given opportunity and that has transferred over to camp in the pros.

AP owner:

anigif_sub-buzz-29873-1504623885-1.gif

Gibson owner: They cut AP, AP said Gibson is a freak and he's why get got cut. The coaching staff say he's a very special player and he's going to have a large role. The best writers say he's a very special player and it looks like he's going to have a big role. Everyone in Washington who has physically been around the team says he's going to have a big rookie season.

AP owner:

anigif_sub-buzz-29873-1504623885-1.gif

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