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Antonio Gibson 2020 Outlook


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Man do I LOVE this thread... these posters come in weekly to try and throw water on Gibson then immediately get embarrassed the following week. See you around 8 tonight, get ready to eat. 

Listen, I'm going to have to agree with the "realists" in here. Take away all three of his touchowns, his 7 targets, 5 receptions, and his four longest runs and he is JAG. Not really seeing anything s

I see the "realists" are putting on the full court press ahead of this game against Pittsburgh. I saw the same EXACT narrative for James Robinson last week who (by the way) bowling balled his way to 1

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3 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

Why are you offering CMC's rookie year numbers as perspective? If Gibson were expected to play that well and catch 80 balls, he'd be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round everywhere.

CMC played 757 snaps that year. Gibson would need to play around 78% of the snaps on the 2019 Redskin team to approach that level. Not impossible to get there eventually, but it's not gonna happen early on. I'm guessing he's more of a 50% snap share guy to begin the year, and that puts his reception ceiling right around 3 catches per game. With maybe 10 carries per game and a TD here or there, he probably has a floor of about 10 PPR points per game. This is perfectly fine for an RB3 drafted near the turn of the 6th and 7th rounds.

The reason you reach for him is because he comes with top of the line size, speed, and receiving skills, finds himself being coached by Ron Rivera who, less than a year ago, fed his back 1056 snaps, 247 carries, and 142 targets, and has recently made comparisons between the two players. Oh, and there's minimal real competition for touches on the roster.

nice post man

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Here's my forecast(s):

  1. 1 TD every two to three games.
  2. 6.5 targets/game, 4.5 catches/game  (7.0 yards/catch)   
  3. 7.5 rushes/game  (4.0 yards/carry) 

 

  1. 72 catches, 500 yards, 3 TD 
  2. 120 rushes, 500 yards, 3 TD
  3. TOTAL: 72 catches, 120 rushes, 1,000 yards, 6 TD
  4. Average: 4.5 catches, 7.5 rushes, 62.5 yards, 0.4 TD
  5.  

Full PPR scoring

  1. Receptions: 72 pts
  2. Receiving Yards: 50 pts
  3. Receiving TDs: 18 pts
  4. Rushing Yards: 50 pts
  5. Rushing TDs: 18 pts
  6. Total Fantasy Points: 208, (13 FPPG)

That's good for RB18 in total points in full PPR based on last year. Probably bump him down to RB25-30 for average FPPG when accounting for missed games by other rushers last year.

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Now all things equal but if we bump up his yards/catch to 8.0, his yards/carry to 5.0 and add two more TDs we get this:

  1. 72 catches, 580 yards, 4 TD 
  2. 120 rushes, 600 yards, 4 TD
  3. Total: 72 catches, 120 rushes, 1,180 yards, 8 TD
  4. Average: 4.5 catches, 7.5 rushes, 73.8 yards, 0.5 TD

 

Full PPR scoring

  1. Receptions: 72 pts
  2. Receiving Yards: 58 pts
  3. Receiving TDs: 24 pts
  4. Rushing Yards: 60 pts
  5. Rushing TDs: 24 pts
  6. Total Fantasy Points: 238, (15 FPPG)

That's good for RB12 in total points in full PPR based on last year. Probably bump him down to RB20-25 for average FPPG when accounting for missed games by other rushers last year.

 

 

Edited by Spyplane
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15 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Here's my forecast(s):

  1. 1 TD every two to three games.
  2. 6.5 targets/game, 4.5 catches/game  (7.0 yards/catch)   
  3. 7.5 rushes/game  (4.0 yards/carry) 

 

  1. 72 catches, 500 yards, 3 TD 
  2. 120 rushes, 500 yards, 3 TD
  3. TOTAL: 72 catches, 120 rushes, 1,000 yards, 6 TD
  4. Average: 4.5 catches, 7.5 rushes, 62.5 yards, 0.4 TD
  5.  

Full PPR scoring

  1. Receptions: 72 pts
  2. Receiving Yards: 50 pts
  3. Receiving TDs: 18 pts
  4. Rushing Yards: 50 pts
  5. Rushing TDs: 18 pts
  6. Total Fantasy Points: 208, (13 FPPG)

That's good for RB18 in total points in full PPR based on last year. Probably bump him down to RB25-30 for average FPPG when accounting for missed games by other rushers last year.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now all things equal but if we bump up his yards/catch to 8.0, his yards/carry to 5.0 and add two more TDs we get this:

  1. 72 catches, 580 yards, 4 TD 
  2. 120 rushes, 600 yards, 4 TD
  3. Total: 72 catches, 120 rushes, 1,180 yards, 8 TD
  4. Average: 4.5 catches, 7.5 rushes, 73.8 yards, 0.5 TD

 

Full PPR scoring

  1. Receptions: 72 pts
  2. Receiving Yards: 58 pts
  3. Receiving TDs: 24 pts
  4. Rushing Yards: 60 pts
  5. Rushing TDs: 24 pts
  6. Total Fantasy Points: 238, (15 FPPG)

That's good for RB12 in total points in full PPR based on last year. Probably bump him down to RB20-25 for average FPPG when accounting for missed games by other rushers last year.

 

 

If I’m honest it’s all a tad optimistic.  AG has every chance to go out there and win the job...but even that will involve a revolving timeshare with maybe 50% snap share.   Wsh official stance is that this is a timeshare with Mckissic listed first on depth chart.   And Barber isn’t flashy-  but he’s solid, rarely missing assignments or losing yards.   
 

Top 24 finish for any of these backs would be remarkable.   

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12 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

If I’m honest it’s all a tad optimistic.  AG has every chance to go out there and win the job...but even that will involve a revolving timeshare with maybe 50% snap share.   Wsh official stance is that this is a timeshare with Mckissic listed first on depth chart.   And Barber isn’t flashy-  but he’s solid, rarely missing assignments or losing yards.   
 

Top 24 finish for any of these backs would be remarkable.   

I have him coming on somewhat quiet and finishing loud. Its baked into the numbers. His usage will need to be significant and like Mclaurin he has game changing explosiveness. It will be tough to keep both these guys under wraps on passing downs.

 

EDIT: I think top 25 isn't unrealistic in full PPR and it's not that much better than his consensus rank I saw a week ago.

Edited by Spyplane
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58 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

I have him coming on somewhat quiet and finishing loud. Its baked into the numbers. His usage will need to be significant and like Mclaurin he has game changing explosiveness. It will be tough to keep both these guys under wraps on passing downs.

 

EDIT: I think top 25 isn't unrealistic in full PPR and it's not that much better than his consensus rank I saw a week ago.

 

I don’t think it’s unrealistic...but if you’re picking an offense that will likely struggle at times-  and add in a 3 way timeshare at least for the foreseeable future—not a great bet to produce a top 24 rusher.    There will be teams with 2 guys that could outproduce anyone on Wsh.   
 

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

I don’t think it’s unrealistic...but if you’re picking an offense that will likely struggle at times-  and add in a 3 way timeshare at least for the foreseeable future—not a great bet to produce a top 24 rusher.    There will be teams with 2 guys that could outproduce anyone on Wsh.   

You're throwing around terms but give me specifics. What part don't you agree with? The 12 total touches per game? Be specific, this is math, plain and simple.

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1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

missed on this kid last night in my biggest $$$ leeg - i am PISSED!

 

Did you nab him in any other leagues? if you don't have him in EVERY league you're in, it doesn't feel like it counts lol

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Owners shouldn’t be scared of a RBBC

 

carolina implemented one where it was a 60/40 split in Jonathan Stewart’s favor.

The upside will be the production in the receiving. 
 

That piece alone makes him a solid flex play. The carries are just a bonus 

.

 

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4 minutes ago, Chickenmane said:

Is this guy a plug and forget calibre of player or do we expect him to start slow?

 

It's a bold move to start him Week 1 based on the fact he's a rookie with no pre-season. Plug and forget later on? We sure hope so.

However in one league, I have two flex spots, and with players banged up already from camp I might roll the dice.

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28 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

You're throwing around terms but give me specifics. What part don't you agree with? The 12 total touches per game? Be specific, this is math, plain and simple.


It’s really not math.   Too many variables we don’t know-  Total pie,  new scheme,  actual talent of the rb involved,  share for each back...and that’s just scratching the surface.  
 

imo-  it’s more useful to look at the bigger picture using qualitative analysis.  
 

 

Edited by Impreza178
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11 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


It’s really not math.   Too many variables we don’t know-  Total pie,  new scheme,  actual talent of the rb involved,  share for each back...and that’s just scratching the surface.  
 

imo-  it’s more useful to look at the bigger picture using qualitative analysis.  
 

 

No, it is math. Fantasy football is math and so if you say I'm wrong, tell me your prediction: carries, catches, yards and TDs. Shoot.

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1 minute ago, Spyplane said:

No, it is math. Fantasy football is math and so if you say I'm wrong, tell me your prediction: carries, catches, yards and TDs. Shoot.


compiling stats is math...predicting the future is not.   You’re just guessing and throwing numbers out based on that guess.   We don’t even know if Gibson leads his own backfield.  
 

I’ll throw out a random week 1 prediction just for you spyplane.  
 

12 touches, 60 yards, 1 td.    He’s a risky and td dependent second or third flex.  

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20 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


compiling stats is math...predicting the future is not.   You’re just guessing and throwing numbers out based on that guess.   We don’t even know if Gibson leads his own backfield.  
 

I’ll throw out a random week 1 prediction just for you spyplane.  
 

12 touches, 60 yards, 1 td.    He’s a risky and td dependent second or third flex.  

Thanks, I feel special and all but what do those touches look like? You're debating me on full PPR and so your line is incomplete. Let me guess that four of those 12 touches are catches. That means you're guessing in week one he gets:

  1. Catches: 4 pts
  2. Yards: 6 pts
  3. TDs: 6 pts
  4. Total points: 16 pts

 

That's from a rookie in his first game. I would call that remarkable, Impreza.  If he did that for 16 games he would post 256 points. That's good for RB9 in full PPR based on last season. 

 

Fantasy football is about taking educated guesses. For you to tell me 'no, you're wrong' you had to make a guess. For players with not much track record (ie: rookies) its a lot easier to see what you might be dealing with by forecasting stats based on a variety of things. Otherwise it is impossible to put a value on a player and so you're going to go with someone else's rankings... Who likely took an educated guess by: forecasting stats. 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Chickenmane said:

Is this guy a plug and forget calibre of player or do we expect him to start slow?

 

He's somebody to hold until we see things shake out. Absolutely not plug and forget at this point. You could probably expect a few points from him, but I think almost everybody is waiting to see if he can take the role later in the season.

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4 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Thanks, I feel special and all but what do those touches look like? You're debating me on full PPR and so your line is incomplete. Let me guess that four of those 12 touches are catches. That means you're guessing in week one he gets:

  1. Catches: 4 pts
  2. Yards: 6 pts
  3. TDs: 6 pts
  4. Total points: 16 pts

 

That's from a rookie in his first game. I would call that remarkable, Impreza.  If he did that for 16 games he would post 256 points. That's good for RB9 in full PPR based on last season. 

 

Fantasy football is about taking educated guesses. For you to tell me 'no, you're wrong' you had to make a guess. For players with not much track record (ie: rookies) its a lot easier to see what you might be dealing with by forecasting stats based on a variety of things. Otherwise it is impossible to put a value on a player and so you're going to go with someone else's rankings... Who likely took an educated guess by: forecasting stats. 

 

 


You just gave the wsh timeshare back 16 tds
 

ridiculous

 

statistical analysis requires something called: confidence.    There is little to no confidence in a model based on Gibson’s situation.     Pretending numbers can give u the answers to build upon in this situation is a waste of time.    But it sounds good right 

 


 

 

 

 

Edited by Impreza178
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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:


You just gave the wsh timeshare back 16 tds
 

ridiculous

 

No, I didn't. I forecast 6-8 TDs and you quoted it. That started this whole exchange. I extrapolated out your week 1 forecast because you don't want to provide the full season due to ____________________.

It's a lot harder to go out on a limb than critique someone else. I understand that.

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22 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

No, I didn't. I forecast 6-8 TDs and you quoted it. That started this whole exchange. I extrapolated out your week 1 forecast because you don't want to provide the full season due to ____________________.

It's a lot harder to go out on a limb than critique someone else. I understand that.

 

no need to get upset-  You can model out any number of guesses on a completely unknown player,  role, and offense... but it means diddly squat.   
 

Bigger picture look at what we do know is much more useful.  
 

we can disagree here.  

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5 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

no need to get upset-  You can model out any number of guesses on a completely unknown player,  role, and offense... but it means diddly squat.   
 

Bigger picture look at what we do know is much more useful.  
 

we can disagree here.  

Hey, I'm not mad at all. I'm just explaining my perspective. No one knows anything that will happen in any season, for sure. I find it beneficial to forecast stats though. It helps me determine whether or not there's value to be had. I don't do it for every player, just those who are new or who aren't on my no draft list but have had something of significance change.

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

no need to get upset-  You can model out any number of guesses on a completely unknown player,  role, and offense... but it means diddly squat.   
 

Bigger picture look at what we do know is much more useful.  
 

we can disagree here.  

 

Agree...disagreement is one thing used to make our country great. I forget that sometimes, lol. 

You stated a hypothetical game of 12 touches, 60 yards, 1 TD. If give him 60 yards per game and allow for 8 TDs (which admittedly could be a bit generous), that puts him at 144 points. In half PPR, if we give him 2 receptions per game, that's 160pts for the season, which would have ranked as the no23 RB in half PPR in 2019. If we did ppg average, that would have ranked him tied for 28th. That's, on average, a usable RB3/Flex guy. 

Now will he reach that, or even surpass it? There's just no way to know right now. We're all just guessing and speculating :)

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