Antonio Gibson 2020 Outlook

[Sack Exchange 1,025]

49 minutes ago, BMcP said:

WAS’s O-Line was about average last year in terms of Adjusted Line Yards - almost exactly on par with the line CMC worked with last season.

Why would you want him to walk into a well-balanced offense for fantasy purposes?

They aren’t going to keep all those RBs.

 

true. no way can they keep everyone. but until it shakes out, how do we read this backfield? who will they let go? adrian peterson is well-liked by coaches and players, so he’ll finish his contract. barber and mckissic were just signed. bryce love was just picked at 4.10 last year… so, josh ferguson is out?

really, regarding antonio gibson’s opportunity to rock the rock, there’s only one guy that worries me: derrius guice. i love guice’s talent, and if he’s healthy there is no stopping him. and if that’s the case, change-of-pace is the best we can hope for gibson. maybe with the defense improved (which it is), gibson will have some goal-line opportunities? 

contrary to rivera, i’m not as sure as antonio being a christian mccaffrey clone. if it had been gibson in tampa bay, on a team with wealth at passing, a QB demanding respect, and an improved offensive line, i’d be more inclined to put the pedal to the metal. balanced to keep defenses legit---just my two cents. i like him in dynasty, but in redraft it doesn't seem like it's gibson's time just yet.

 

13 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

In what way is Keshawn Vaughn's tape uninspiring? 

 

look at cam aker's tape. FSU had a comparably bad o-line. akers runs angry and looks deadly. electric. for me, like @LostAtSea, i am uninspired by ke'shawn yawn. great landing spot, though.

 

[BMcP 8,602]

11 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

true. no way can they keep everyone. but until it shakes out, how do we read this backfield? who will they let go? adrian peterson is well-liked by coaches and players, so he’ll finish his contract. barber and mckissic were just signed. bryce love was just picked at 4.10 last year… so, josh ferguson is out?

really, regarding antonio gibson’s opportunity to rock the rock, there’s only one guy that worries me: derrius guice. i love guice’s talent, and if he’s healthy there is no stopping him. and if that’s the case, change-of-pace is the best we can hope for gibson. maybe with the defense improved (which it is), gibson will have some goal-line opportunities? 

contrary to rivera, i’m not as sure as antonio being a christian mccaffrey clone. if it had been gibson in tampa bay, on a team with wealth at passing, a QB demanding respect, and an improved offensive line, i’d be more inclined to put the pedal to the metal. balanced to keep defenses legit---just my two cents. i like him in dynasty, but in redraft it doesn't seem like it's gibson's time just yet.

 

 

look at cam aker's tape. FSU had a comparably bad o-line. akers runs angry and looks deadly. electric. for me, like @LostAtSea, i am uninspired by ke'shawn yawn. great landing spot, though.

 

All fair points, thanks.

I have no idea who they end up keeping, honestly.  It was rumored a short while ago that they’d cut AP.  That would probably be a mistake.  Barber seems like the most expendable to me.

I suppose I’m of the mind that I want to invest in a player like Gibson who has a clear path to carving out a major role on offense - that just won’t happen with anyone in Tampa with their stacked offense.  The line is one of the least of my concerns as I fully expect them to utilize Gibson as a receiver frequently.  Though I would expect WAS to have at least a somewhat improved line.  Hopefully Charles can slide in at LT.

[paulwall29 850]

37 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

true. no way can they keep everyone. but until it shakes out, how do we read this backfield? who will they let go? adrian peterson is well-liked by coaches and players, so he’ll finish his contract. barber and mckissic were just signed. bryce love was just picked at 4.10 last year… so, josh ferguson is out?

really, regarding antonio gibson’s opportunity to rock the rock, there’s only one guy that worries me: derrius guice. i love guice’s talent, and if he’s healthy there is no stopping him. and if that’s the case, change-of-pace is the best we can hope for gibson. maybe with the defense improved (which it is), gibson will have some goal-line opportunities? 

contrary to rivera, i’m not as sure as antonio being a christian mccaffrey clone. if it had been gibson in tampa bay, on a team with wealth at passing, a QB demanding respect, and an improved offensive line, i’d be more inclined to put the pedal to the metal. balanced to keep defenses legit---just my two cents. i like him in dynasty, but in redraft it doesn't seem like it's gibson's time just yet.

 

 

look at cam aker's tape. FSU had a comparably bad o-line. akers runs angry and looks deadly. electric. for me, like @LostAtSea, i am uninspired by ke'shawn yawn. great landing spot, though.

 

 

What does Keshawn Vaughn have to do with Cam Akers? Playing in a tougher conference, Vaughns numbers were just as good despite their differences in style. Per PFF, Vaughn has 2,208 career rushing yards after contact. I wouldn't say being a "soft" runner is a concern with him.

Edited May 6, 2020 by paulwall29

[EWV1 44]

On 5/5/2020 at 8:58 AM, lolcopter said:

Was just gonna post that. Coach speak aside, if he retains WR eligibility and decent ADP I'm on board

CBS has him at RB only for now.

[Fort4242 744]

This guy might be my favorite sleeper so far for this year.  Multi-dimensional and can line up all over the place, a la Deebo Samuel.  A 35 year old AP and always injured Guice are his competition in the backfield.  Terry McLaurin the only real threat they have in the passing game.  83rd percentile SPARQ score, and 89th percentile adjusted SPARQ score.  Best comparable is Joe Mixon on PlayerProfiler.  High draft capital player, Redskins took him at 3.02.  This guy could be the #2 option on the offense this season.

[BMcP 8,602]

On 5/5/2020 at 8:22 PM, Boudewijn said:

We're still talking about Washington. 

The Pats or Chiefs having an army knife scares me. Washington having an army knife makes me think of when I bought my first one as a kid and cut myself within the first 2 minutes of owning it.

Haha!

But if I trust anyone to use a Swiss Army knife, it’s the Rivera/Turner combo.  They may actually reside in Switzerland.

[ST. STEVEN 4,338]

Pretty great intersection of available touches and awesome talent. After reviewing some of his tape and crude measurables, I am very much on board with Gibby.

[Proteus 3,797]

If you’re on the clock in a rookie draft and Zack Moss, A Gibson, and AJ Dillon are all on the board...

...you’re taking them in what order?

[mocha4313 770]

7 minutes ago, Proteus said:

If you’re on the clock in a rookie draft and Zack Moss, A Gibson, and AJ Dillon are all on the board...

...you’re taking them in what order?

Dynasty? Dillon, Moss, Gibson

Not a knock on Gibson's talent. I like him and was hoping to get him later in my rookie draft--just seen so few of these position less offensive weapons pan out, and it's a tough bet to say the Redskins and Trashkins are going to be the team to make it happen.

The other two have a more secure path to guaranteed touches--Dillon in year 2, Moss in year 1--on better offenses

Edited June 30, 2020 by mocha4313

[Boudewijn 4,634]

44 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Dynasty? Dillon, Moss, Gibson

I took Gibson over Dillon and Moss. I do own Dillon in another league though, I like him too, but I also like to hedge my bets a bit  Also, in that league I can afford to wait until Dillon takes over (even if it takes a year).

With Moss I think there's a lot of competition, and I'm not that sure he'll work his way to the front of the line. Gibson I think will get playng time from the start, including on special teams (this league counts return yards), and I think he's the kind of player who will get worked into many types of plays; he's Tarik Cohen with more size and hopefully better ball security.

And there is the chance that Washington will turn him into another CMC-type player. I don't count on it, but to me this kid is a fairly safe play, with chance of meatballs. That's all you can hope for in that area.

[mocha4313 770]

20 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I took Gibson over Dillon and Moss. I do own Dillon in another league though, I like him too, but I also like to hedge my bets a bit  Also, in that league I can afford to wait until Dillon takes over (even if it takes a year).

With Moss I think there's a lot of competition, and I'm not that sure he'll work his way to the front of the line. Gibson I think will get playng time from the start, including on special teams (this league counts return yards), and I think he's the kind of player who will get worked into many types of plays; he's Tarik Cohen with more size and hopefully better ball security.

And there is the chance that Washington will turn him into another CMC-type player. I don't count on it, but to me this kid is a fairly safe play, with chance of meatballs. That's all you can hope for in that area.

I’m not super high on Moss as a talent but he will split 50-50 with Singletary if I had to guess. Dillon won’t do much this year but 2021 is his

 

For Gibson I am sure they will manufacture some creative touches for him but I am not sure it will be a very high volume role until his play demands it

[ST. STEVEN 4,338]

1 hour ago, Proteus said:

If you’re on the clock in a rookie draft and Zack Moss, A Gibson, and AJ Dillon are all on the board...

...you’re taking them in what order?

I was just on the clock in a recent 14 team rookie draft and took Gibson at #14 overall over those guys.

They are were on my short list (PPR) but I just like Gibson as a talent more and had no needs.

[Boudewijn 4,634]

14 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

For Gibson I am sure they will manufacture some creative touches for him but I am not sure it will be a very high volume role until his play demands it

Yeah, agree. But I hope in my league that with return yards he will still have some flex value until that happens.

I should also add btw that my main concern is that the hype is based on half a season, most of which was played in a super creative offense against minor teams.

The three games that are somewhat relevant to me are the 2 games against Cincinnati and Penn State, in which he had 19/211/2 plus 11/139/1 receiving; but in all of 2019 he had less than 70 touches, so it's safe to say he's not really been tested yet.

So this may well be a swing and a miss, but heck, he looks fun, and Washington needs fun more than anything (well, aside from a name change).

[Boudewijn 4,634]

21 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

They are were on my short list (PPR) but I just like Gibson as a talent more and had no needs

You bastard. My team has more needs than a special-needs needlepointer who's been kneed in the nuts.

[predator_05 3,374]

12 hours ago, Proteus said:

If you’re on the clock in a rookie draft and Zack Moss, A Gibson, and AJ Dillon are all on the board...

...you’re taking them in what order?

 

I can't say who's the best of the 3, but i definitely know who's the worst, and that's AJ Dillon. He's a slow, straight-line plodder. I'm guesing the Packers took him just to piss off Aaron Rodgers and show him 'his place'.

 

Gibson scored 14 TDs on 77 plays in college; he's either a fluke or an incredible, under-the-radar talent. Interesting prospect.

Edited June 30, 2020 by predator_05

[mocha4313 770]

5 hours ago, predator_05 said:

 

I can't say who's the best of the 3, but i definitely know who's the worst, and that's AJ Dillon. He's a slow, straight-line plodder. I'm guesing the Packers took him just to piss off Aaron Rodgers and show him 'his place'.

 

Gibson scored 14 TDs on 77 plays in college; he's either a fluke or an incredible, under-the-radar talent. Interesting prospect.

Dillon is absolutely not slow. Linear? maybe, but definitely not slow.

As for Gibson I really wish there was a larger sample size of production. I would feel a lot better about him in that case

[bhawks489 3,678]

18 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I was just on the clock in a recent 14 team rookie draft and took Gibson at #14 overall over those guys.

They are were on my short list (PPR) but I just like Gibson as a talent more and had no needs.

Went 17th in my 12 team ppr league.

 

Moss and Dillon were 20 and 21 respectively.

 

I dont know if Id buy gibson in redraft but dynasty he seems like a good pick.

[predator_05 3,374]

 

13 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Went 17th in my 12 team ppr league.

 

Moss and Dillon were 20 and 21 respectively.

 

I dont know if Id buy gibson in redraft but dynasty he seems like a good pick.

 

The thing with gibson is, you don't know how or where he's gonna play. He's officially listed as a running back, and worked out as a running back. But what are they doing with him? Nobody can predict with any certainty.

 

That's the risk with guys like him and Lynn bowden jr as well - they excelled in multiple positions without specializing in any one of them. The NFL, unlike college, doesn't really give players time to 'learn'. You're either good at something, or you aren't.

Having said that, I wouldn't bet against Gibson. He's a great athlete and a big-time playmaker...he'll be successful in the NFL. He brings something different to the redskins offense, so he'll be useful from day 1.

 

14 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Dillon is absolutely not slow. Linear? maybe, but definitely not slow.

As for Gibson I really wish there was a larger sample size of production. I would feel a lot better about him in that case

 

He ran a good 40, but he shifts his weight and changes direction like an oil tanker. His 'play speed' isn't impressive by NFL standards.

He gets compared to Derrick henry, which makes no sense to me because henry is elusive and patient, with good spatial awareness. Dillon is strictly downhill, north-south. Even when he breaks away, he gets caught. He's a big, predictable target.

That's what i saw in his highlights, at least. Did you see anything different?

 

For me, he's an easy fade. Maybe he'll be different in the NFL? Some of these guys were very 'scheme dependent' in college, and couldn't showcase all their skills. It's possible, but i'll let somebody else find out and prove me wrong

[El_Chingon 1,809]

@predator_05 the most important part of the equation you're neglecting with Dillon is draft capital.  Green Bay spent a 2nd round pick on him, therefore he will get every opportunity in 2021.  The RB position is not so much about how pretty someone looks on tape, it's mainly about opportunity and volume which Dillon will receive.

[Impreza178 6,046]

30 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

@predator_05 the most important part of the equation you're neglecting with Dillon is draft capital.  Green Bay spent a 2nd round pick on him, therefore he will get every opportunity in 2021.  The RB position is not so much about how pretty someone looks on tape, it's mainly about opportunity and volume which Dillon will receive.

What a train wreck of a draft for the Pack.  Neither of their first 2 picks are NFL starters,   And do nothing for a 12-4 roster.  a late first for a rookie qb flyer when you have a future HOFer who has given no indication of retiring?   DOH

Then they compound the problem by picking L Blount 2...with a stud young rb and solid backup already on the team?    YIKES
 
Dillon was a wild pick that early and it doesn’t change what he can and can’t do on the field.    price paid is irrelevant 

[Fort4242 744]

10 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

What a train wreck of a draft for the Pack.  Neither of their first 2 picks are NFL starters,   And do nothing for a 12-4 roster.  a late first for a rookie qb flyer when you have a future HOFer who has given no indication of retiring?   DOH

Then they compound the problem by picking L Blount 2...with a stud young rb and solid backup already on the team?    YIKES
 
Dillon was a wild pick that early and it doesn’t change what he can and can’t do on the field.    price paid is irrelevant 

I have to agree.  Teams make dumb picks all the time.  

Dillon isn't coming in and taking the job away from Aaron Jones.  I can see a scenario where he takes Jamaal William's role but I don't see Dillon receiving enough volume or opportunity to be a meaningful fantasy contributor this year. 

If Dillon and Gibson switched places? It would be a different story.  

[El_Chingon 1,809]

6 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I have to agree.  Teams make dumb picks all the time.  

Dillon isn't coming in and taking the job away from Aaron Jones.  I can see a scenario where he takes Jamaal William's role but I don't see Dillon receiving enough volume or opportunity to be a meaningful fantasy contributor this year. 

If Dillon and Gibson switched places? It would be a different story.  

Next year Jones will probably leave.  That's what I meant by dillon having opportunity. 

[El_Chingon 1,809]

23 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

price paid is irrelevant 

This is where we can agree to disagree.

[Fort4242 744]

4 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Next year Jones will probably leave.  That's what I meant by dillon having opportunity. 

Gotcha I missed the part you mentioned 2021 - my fault.

Jones and Williams are both FAs in 2021, and if both go else where I agree Dillon is going to be a hot commodity.  He'll have the backfield all to himself next year so a really nice dynasty target to stash for a season.  

[Naboo 123]

Let's get back to Gibson.

I did draft him as a RB on Yahoo. Can't imagine him losing RB eligibility this season even if deployed as a WR by the Skins.