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Antonio Gibson 2020 Outlook


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Man do I LOVE this thread... these posters come in weekly to try and throw water on Gibson then immediately get embarrassed the following week. See you around 8 tonight, get ready to eat. 

Listen, I'm going to have to agree with the "realists" in here. Take away all three of his touchowns, his 7 targets, 5 receptions, and his four longest runs and he is JAG. Not really seeing anything s

I see the "realists" are putting on the full court press ahead of this game against Pittsburgh. I saw the same EXACT narrative for James Robinson last week who (by the way) bowling balled his way to 1

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25 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Gibson is going to finish strong is my guess. He looks like the most talented player they have on offense. As the season wears on it will become more and more important to focus on his development.

 

In the backfield I have no argument.  Scary Terry has some talent though and can give him a run for his money as the best offensive player on their team.

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Starting and hoping Detroit doesn’t jump out in front early. Like it or not, McKissic has carved out a role as a 3rd down/pass-protect role. I’m sure the coaching staff wasn’t thrilled with Kyle Allen getting blown up and injured with Gibson in pass-protect assignment last game.

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3 hours ago, varock said:

Starting and hoping Detroit doesn’t jump out in front early. Like it or not, McKissic has carved out a role as a 3rd down/pass-protect role. I’m sure the coaching staff wasn’t thrilled with Kyle Allen getting blown up and injured with Gibson in pass-protect assignment last game.


I didn’t realize it was Gibson’s fault that Allen got hurt. But everyone has to remember that this is still a very raw RB. For all of his natural ability and athleticism, he has a lot to learn about being a RB in the NFL. Fingers crossed that he gets there sooner than later. 

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20 hours ago, Flyman75 said:


I didn’t realize it was Gibson’s fault that Allen got hurt. But everyone has to remember that this is still a very raw RB. For all of his natural ability and athleticism, he has a lot to learn about being a RB in the NFL. Fingers crossed that he gets there sooner than later. 

 

It wasn't. Washington ran an under-center seven-step-drop play action to the right. The Giants called a Jabrill Peppers safety blitz off the right edge. Play action took Gibson out of position but he was able to shuffle a step to the right and get a shoulder on the thigh of Peppers, forcing the pressure outside and upfield. Not the best block by any means, but maintaining inside leverage is how it's taught.

A seven-step-drop puts the QB on the fringe of the backside of the pocket. You can't avoid pressure by continuing backwards even more! Allen's failure to recognize the blitz and step up in the pocket was the bigger reason he got hurt.

Either way, the coaching staff bears the most blame. Slow developing plays behind bad pass blocking offensive lines is a recipe for sacks and turnovers, especially when you're trailing by 10+ points against a defensive coordinator that loves to blitz (in 2019, DC Patrick Graham's blitz frequency was 7th highest in the NFL despite coaching the Dolphins who had the worst point differential). This type of playcall should be reserved for when you're successfully moving the ball on the ground and wish to take a dagger shot downfield, not when your ground attack is averaging only 2 yards per carry and you're frustrated because you're trailing by 10 points.

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6 hours ago, thebadferret said:

Am I happy, that he got 22 points - Yes.

Am I furious how a team can target JD McKissic 15 (!!!!!) times in a game while AG only got 4? - Also Yes. 

 

It is extraordinary that a guy who made his hay in college primarily as a WR is so ignored in the WFT passing game...but JDM gets 14 and 15 targets the last two weeks. Just extraordinary. I get that Alex Smith has turned into Checkdown Charlie, but I don't get why Gibson isn't a beneficiary, as well. 

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21 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

It is extraordinary that a guy who made his hay in college primarily as a WR is so ignored in the WFT passing game...but JDM gets 14 and 15 targets the last two weeks. Just extraordinary. I get that Alex Smith has turned into Checkdown Charlie, but I don't get why Gibson isn't a beneficiary, as well. 

It also just tells the opposing team what WFT is trying to do. McKissic had 8 rushes for 6 yds and has not been efficient in the run game. May as well telecast pass or run by who is in the game.

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1 hour ago, SkinThatSmokeWagon said:

It also just tells the opposing team what WFT is trying to do. McKissic had 8 rushes for 6 yds and has not been efficient in the run game. May as well telecast pass or run by who is in the game.

Washington is 2-7 on the season and they're 0-2 in the last two games featuring Mckissic in an expanded role. It likely won't be long now before the dial up Gibson more and more because he's ready for it and they have nothing to lose. Gibson has two great matchups in weeks 15 & 16.  He's primed to help us smash teams in the fantasy playoffs. I'm not going to tell people how to feel but Gibson is a top 20 RB who many got for virtually nothing and he's trending towards at top 15 RB who many got for virtually nothing. Perspective.

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2 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Washington is 2-7 on the season and they're 0-2 in the last two games featuring Mckissic in an expanded role. It likely won't be long now before the dial up Gibson more and more because he's ready for it and they have nothing to lose. Gibson has two great matchups in weeks 15 & 16.  He's primed to help us smash teams in the fantasy playoffs. I'm not going to tell people how to feel but Gibson is a top 20 RB who many got for virtually nothing and he's trending towards at top 15 RB who many got for virtually nothing. Perspective.

I feel you are correct on this. I will probably hold him as my keeper for next year as well in my big money league. Would be able to keep him for a 6th rounder next year. Barring injury, I can see Gibson going in round 4 next year.

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4 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Only its not that simple. I don't have the snap count for this week but last week he played 45 snaps. If teams view it as you say, that its obvious they're going to him when he's on the field, then its perfect because it opens up something somewhere else; someone is getting pulled if that's true.

 

Washington is 2-7 on the season and they're 0-2 in the last two games featuring Mckissic in an expanded role. It likely won't be long now before the dial up Gibson more and more because he's ready for it. Gibson has two great matchups in weeks 15 & 16.  He's primed to help us smash teams in the fantasy playoffs. I'm not going to tell people how to feel but Gibson is a top 20 RB who many got for virtually nothing and he's trending towards at top 15 RB who many got for virtually nothing. Perspective.

 

In my half PPR league, he'll be the RB11 once this week is done. Granted, it's with Zeke in a bad situation, Barkley on IR, and CMC hurt all season. But he's still going to be a top-12 RB once this week is wrapped up after 10 weeks of the season. 

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13 minutes ago, SkinThatSmokeWagon said:

I feel you are correct on this. I will probably hold him as my keeper for next year as well in my big money league. Would be able to keep him for a 6th rounder next year. Barring injury, I can see Gibson going in round 4 next year.

He may go much higher depending on how he closes the year. He's so young and explosive. If he ends the season with an exclamation then he could go as high as round one. Look at Drake's situation last year and how that impacted this years draft.

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1 hour ago, Spyplane said:

Washington is 2-7 on the season and they're 0-2 in the last two games featuring Mckissic in an expanded role. It likely won't be long now before the dial up Gibson more and more because he's ready for it and they have nothing to lose. Gibson has two great matchups in weeks 15 & 16.  He's primed to help us smash teams in the fantasy playoffs. I'm not going to tell people how to feel but Gibson is a top 20 RB who many got for virtually nothing and he's trending towards at top 15 RB who many got for virtually nothing. Perspective.


agree with this and am a huge fan.  
 

the one thing that us fantasy folks don’t always take into consideration tho is the non-fantasy strengths/weaknesses of these guys.  The truth is that Gibson still appears to be learning pass-pro and has missed some blocks.  That goes hand in hand with getting more snaps and takes time to learn.

but agree, his future is very bright.

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McKissic was a career backup for a reason and he's already 27.

It's mind boggling that a young team wouldn't want to future their young RB more. Based on what we've seen Gibson very well may stand as the most talented RB in this class. Why not give him a chance to prove it?

I'm not saying make Gibson a full time bellcow like Cook (although it would be nice) but he hasn't broken 50% snap count in 4 weeks. That's an absolute joke getting out snapped by a dude that is a flat out JAG.

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As a realistic stand point, it's "Why would you run a young RB into the ground when you can use your vet while you have a throw away season."

 

I know the division is in their grasp, but longterm thinking would be focusing on future seasons. With bad weather coming up, and Smith being their QB (short to mid range is his game), the run game will come more important. Interesting to see if they will move towards the passing down RB (McKissic) or lean on a play-action style with a running RB (Gibson).

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6 minutes ago, 2014olympicgold said:

As a realistic stand point, it's "Why would you run a young RB into the ground when you can use your vet while you have a throw away season."

 

I know the division is in their grasp, but longterm thinking would be focusing on future seasons. With bad weather coming up, and Smith being their QB (short to mid range is his game), the run game will come more important. Interesting to see if they will move towards the passing down RB (McKissic) or lean on a play-action style with a running RB (Gibson).

They spent high capital on Gibson and are not even giving him 50% because of a career backup.

At least do a 60/40 split in favor of Gibson. He has 1 game with over 15 carries all year compared to 4 with single digit carries. He's on pace for only 180 carries. Should be closer to 215 taking into account not wanting to run him into the ground. Although it really should be around 260-280 because drafting a back that high to not use him when he is balling out is ridiculous.

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He's on pace for 183 carries, 46 receptions, 1,134 total yards and 12 TDs. In PPR that translates to 234 points and that would rank him 12th at the RB position based on last year's stats and 11th based on 2018 stats.

 

Most of us got him for free or cheap and still the complaints. I must be playing this for different reasons than some people. I play to enjoy it and win in the process. 

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