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Ke'Shawn Vaughn 2020 Outlook


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Agreed - definitely not a threat in any traditional sense to overtaking either’s role.  But another intriguing option to factor in when considering the overall distribution of touches and targets.

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You actually play in leagues where you can drop guys on your bench after they have already played?! That's whack

Arians did identify Vaughn as having a 3-down skill set, but when asked whether he was looking for & found David Johnson, he quickly stated that Vaughn is not that player. Already noted & Aria

😒 Another Thursday hype bust?

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Agreed - definitely not a threat in any traditional sense to overtaking either’s role.  But another intriguing option to factor in when considering the overall distribution of touches and targets.

Especially considering Brady’s noodle arm and penchant for short passing.  Becoming the new James White is a realistic outcome for Vaughn.    

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26 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Agreed - definitely not a threat in any traditional sense to overtaking either’s role.  But another intriguing option to factor in when considering the overall distribution of touches and targets.

 

I'd be surprised if Calais had anything more than 10 carries and 15-20 receptions in his first season. He's a bigger threat to Dare O's bottomline than anything else.

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21 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Especially considering Brady’s noodle arm and penchant for short passing.  Becoming the new James White is a realistic outcome for Vaughn.    

 

I agree with Vaughn having the chance at the James White role and then some. The quote you were responding to was regarding Raymond Calais.

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5 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I agree with Vaughn having the chance at the James White role and then some. The quote you were responding to was regarding Raymond Calais.


Ah yes-  thanks for the correction.   That’s why you scroll back a page before responding lol

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13 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I'd be surprised if he had anything more than 10 carries and 15-20 receptions in his first season.

That would be a shameful lack of use for the only RB last season other than Etienne to average 7.8 ypc on over 100 rushing attempts.  But I guess time will tell.

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24 minutes ago, BMcP said:

That would be a shameful lack of use for the only RB last season other than Etienne to average 7.8 ypc on over 100 rushing attempts.  But I guess time will tell.

 

His production between the tackles came in the sun belt conference. To put things into perspective there was another running back on his team that had 150+ carries and average 7.1 YPC. His best case scenario is being a Lance Dunbar or Chris Thompson. Those guys were significantly better pass catchers in college and Thompson was buried behind Devonta Freeman who was also an excellent pass catcher so we never saw Thompson's full potential in that department in college. 30-50 combined touches is his best case scenario for year one. The Bucs are never going to put him on the field in rushing situations so Calais will have to improve as a pass catcher before seeing significant opportunity behind Jones, Vaughn and Dare O. It's concerning that he was only 10th on his team in receptions with a scat-back profile.

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3 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

His production between the tackles came in the sun belt conference. His best case scenario is being a Lance Dunbar or Chris Thompson. 30-50 combined touches is his best case scenario for year one. Those guys were significantly better pass catchers in college and Thompson was buried behind Devonta Freeman at FSU but excelled as a rusher and passer when given the opportunity. Calais will have to improve as a pass catcher before seeing significant opportunity behind Jones, Vaughn and Dare O.

I can’t ding Calais too much simply due to the conference he played in - he’s never going to be a between-the-tackles banger - you’re drafting him for his home-run-hitting potential.  And he has the sort of elite speed that will seamlessly translate to the pro level.

Thompson saw a grand total of 8 more receptions in his last two college years than Calais did.  I can’t say I watched him in college, but Thompson went on to have 70 touches in his first (somewhat) full season in the NFL.  And CT became one of the best passing-down specialists in the game.  It’s risky to read too much into a RB’s receiving stats when projecting how they will fare at the next level.

I’d feel more comfortable projecting him for between 60-70 touches on offense in year one.  I just can’t seem to bring myself to believe they’ll limit him to slightly more than one touch on average per game if he’s healthy and contributing.

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21 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I can’t ding Calais too much simply due to the conference he played in - he’s never going to be a between-the-tackles banger - you’re drafting him for his home-run-hitting potential.  And he has the sort of elite speed that will seamlessly translate to the pro level.

Thompson saw a grand total of 8 more receptions in his last two college years than Calais did.  I can’t say I watched him in college, but Thompson went on to have 70 touches in his first (somewhat) full season in the NFL.  And CT became one of the best passing-down specialists in the game.  It’s risky to read too much into a RB’s receiving stats when projecting how they will fare at the next level.

I’d feel more comfortable projecting him for between 60-70 touches on offense in year one.  I just can’t seem to bring myself to believe they’ll limit him to slightly more than one touch on average per game if he’s healthy and contributing.

 

You should when it comes to comparing his YPC to all backs in college football and using it next to Etienne's 7.8 playing in the ACC (again there was another player on Calais' team with almost as many carries and a nearly identical YPC). You aren't putting numbers in context. Chris Thompson play 4 full games his Junior season (so that's a wash) and 9 his senior season. In 9 games his senior season Thompson was 6th on the team in receptions and every guy in front of him played all 14 games. You are right that you have to be cautious about projecting how RB's will project as receivers but one of the biggest things personnel guys use to do so is the percentage share of receptions that backs had on their team. Thompson's percentage was already relatively high and if he played an adittional 5 games it would have been sky high. Raymond Calais played 14 games in both seasons and was rarely used as a pass catcher and the team didn't have another back that was a pass catching back--Calais still never finished better than 10th on the team in receptions. His college target share was in the 9th percentile (absolutely horrific). This is concerning lack of usage for a guy that profiles as a scat back. He will be used almost exclusively as a special teamer as rookie while the Bucs work on developing him in the passing game.

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6 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

You should when it comes to comparing his YPC to all backs in college football and using it next to Etienne's 7.8 playing in the ACC (again there was another player on Calais' team with almost as many carries and a nearly identical YPC). You aren't putting numbers in context. Chris Thompson play 4 full games his Junior season (so that's a wash) and 9 his senior season. In 9 games his senior season Thompson was 6th on the team in receptions and every guy in front of him played all 14 games. You are right that you have to be cautious about projecting how RB's will project as receivers but one of the biggest things personnel guys use to do so is the percentage share of receptions that backs had on their team. Thompson's percentage was already relatively high and if he played an adittional 5 games it would have been sky high. Raymond Calais played 14 games in both seasons and was rarely used as a pass catcher and the team didn't have another back that was a pass catching back--Calais still never finished better than 10th on the team in receptions. This is concerning lack of usage for a guy that profiles as a scat back. 

I’m not sure who you’re referring to on Louisville who even approached Calais’s YPC total - certainly not Hawkins.  I was just trying to explain that only giving a player with that type of extraordinary efficiency (regardless of conference) 10 total carries all season seemed like a waste of talent.

Instead of focusing on whatever reasons there might have been for his college coaches to use him sparingly as a pass-catcher, I’m more inclined to focus on what Arians intends to do with him - and he’s already spoken multiple times of Calais’s ability to play split out wide and create “mismatches” in that position.  Honestly, that’s good enough for me to think he’ll be catching passes as early as this season.  Arians has never been one to mince words when it comes to praising his players or explaining how they will be utilized.

 

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10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I’m not sure who you’re referring to on Louisville who even approached Calais’s YPC total - certainly not Hawkins.  I was just trying to explain that only giving a player with that type of extraordinary efficiency (regardless of conference) 10 total carries all season seemed like a waste of talent.

Instead of focusing on whatever reasons there might have been for his college coaches to use him sparingly as a pass-catcher, I’m more inclined to focus on what Arians intends to do with him - and he’s already spoken multiple times of Calais’s ability to play split out wide and create “mismatches” in that position.  Honestly, that’s good enough for me to think he’ll be catching passes as early as this season.  Arians has never been one to mince words when it comes to praising his players or explaining how they will be utilized.

 

 

Calais played for Louisiana not Louisville. Javian Hawkins is the starting running back for Lousiville. The player on Calais' actual team that I'm referring to Tray Ragas who had 116 carries to Calais' 117 and average 7.1 YPC to Calais' 7.8. 

I understand what Arians intends to do with him but it is going to take time for him to develop Calais to get to that point. I don't see much opportunity for receptions in 2020 on an offense with Evans, Godwin, Gronk, OJ Howard, Brate, Justin Watson, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Ronald Jones, Keshawn Vaughn and Dare O. He has an uphill battle as far as development--shortened offseason to develop as a receiver and pass blocker--and being on one of the most stacked offensive groups in the league. Not saying he will NEVER develop into the kind of player you're envisioning but it seems unlikely in year 1.

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1 minute ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Calais played for Louisiana not Louisville. Javian Hawkins is the starting running back for Lousiville. The player on Calais' actual team that I'm referring to Tray Ragas who had 116 carries to Calais' 117 and average 7.1 YPC to Calais' 7.8. 

I understand what Arians intends to do with him but it is going to take time for him to develop Calais to get to that point. I don't see much opportunity for receptions in 2020 on an offense with Evans, Godwin, Gronk, OJ Howard, Brate, Justin Watson, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Ronald Jones, Keshawn Vaughn and Dare O. He has an uphill battle as far as development--shortened offseason to develop as a receiver and pass blocker--and being on one of the most stacked offensive groups in the league. Not saying he will NEVER develop into the kind of player you're envisioning but it seems unlikely in year 1.

Ah. That explains it, thanks - my bad.  Just got confused momentarily - involved in too many other discussions!

I do also agree with your points about both the sheer number of weapons Arians now has to work with and the relative lack of pre-season development opportunities.  I wonder what sort of effect that will have league-wide for prospects and newly added FAs to contribute - especially on a Brady-led team.  And to what extent it will impact Vaughn in year one - will they slow-play his integration into the offense somewhat?  In light of the circumstances, it might take him longer than expected to fully entrench himself as the clear-cut passing-down back, even if they choose to cut ties with Dare O.

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

Ah. That explains it, thanks - my bad.  Just got confused momentarily - involved in too many other discussions!

I do also agree with your points about both the sheer number of weapons Arians now has to work with and the relative lack of pre-season development opportunities.  I wonder what sort of effect that will have league-wide for prospects and newly added FAs to contribute - especially on a Brady-led team.  And to what extent it will impact Vaughn in year one - will they slow-play his integration into the offense somewhat?  In light of the circumstances, it might take him longer than expected to fully entrench himself as the clear-cut passing-down back, even if they choose to cut ties with Dare O.

 

No worries, that sort of thing has happened to me plenty on these boards. I think it's definitely going to have an impact and especially on a Brady led team (hence my hesitation with Calais). That is why I am much more cautious than most Vaughn truthers are about him coming in and taking the job from Jones outright--I don't think that will happen. The problem for Jones is that Vaughn is more well-rounded running back and that Jones has really struggled in pass protection, an area that got him in trouble last year before Brady was in the fold:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/12/02/bucs-benched-ronald-jones-for-pass-protection-mistake/

I anticipate Ronald Jones being used similarly to how Lagarette Blount was used in New England and Vaughn being used in the Dion Lewis/James White role. So I expect RoJo to be a nice value in standard leagues with major TD upside. The problem for RoJo is that Vaughn profiles as a better pass catcher and has a better 3 down profile than Dion Lewis or James White had. Arians has a short leash and very little patience for mistakes so if Jones falters Vaughn could quickly find himself in position to have a more significant role. 

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16 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

"... For me, him saying that Vaughn isn't David Johnson is pretty irrelevant here... I can't find anything about him saying that the guy they wanted had just come off the board... I agree that Antonio Gibson is much more comparable to DJ but the difference with Gibson is that he has very little experience playing the running back position--he is a raw prospect and will almost certainly take a longer time to transition to the position at the NFL level than Vaughn. ... Arians ... specifically stated at the combine that he's looking for a back that can play every down. Then he draft Ke'Shawn Vaughn and said he views him as a back that can play on every down. Bucs director of player personnel John Spytek had this to about Vaughn as a pass catcher after the draft:

"He's a guy who can certainly help us in that realm," said Spytek. "As he continues to grow as a player he'll get more opportunities and he's got the ability to do a lot of things that we want a running back to do in the passing game. So it made a lot of sense from that standpoint. He's a good runner and a good receiver out of the backfield. He's got the ability to detach and run some of the routes that Coach Arians likes to do."

Clearly Vaughn is a guy that they believe can play a significant role in the passing game. Another thing to keep in mind is that Vaughn WAS a plus pass catcher with the opportunity

he was given in college--he had 14% of Vanderbilt's receptions, second most for RB's in division I behind only Eno Benjamin's 20%. You mention what RoJo did behind a porous o-line, the good news for Vaughn is that his production came behind the worst offensive line of any of the backs drafted in the top 3 rounds. If you watch his tape you will see the o-line blown off the ball play after play and Vaughn was still able to put up excellent production against the best competition in college football. This says a lot about his talent. It's silly to say that the only path to volume for Vaughn is injury to RoJo. You are pretending to put yourself in the minds of the coaches and saying that there is no way that Vaughn's play on the field could lead to more volume--that is a foolish take and one that loses people fantasy leagues. Peyton Barber essentially split backfield touches with RoJo last season. You mean to tell me that Vaughn, a more talented player than Barber, doesn't pose a significant threat to do the same and possibly more?

for your reference to Arians' comment, I can't find anything about him saying that guy that they wanted had just come off the board (and keep in mind in the draft he got DJ he actually wanted Ameer Abdullah). I agree that Antonio Gibson is much more comparable to DJ but the difference with Gibson is that he has very little experience playing the running back position--he is a raw prospect and will almost certainly take a longer time to transition to the position at the NFL level than Vaughn. Arians exact quote you were referring to was: "I think Ke'shawn is a guy that can play every down. I don't consider him a David Johnson." This was after being directly asked if he viewed Vaughn as a David Johnson. To me the most important thing here is that he identifies Vaughn as an every down back. Who cares that he doesn't think that Vaughn is David Johnson, not many backs are. The more important quotes to me are the following. Arians at the NFL combine:

 

It is important to put the Vaughn/David Johnson quote in the context of this NFL combine quote from Arians. He specifically stated at the combine that he's looking for a back that can play every down. Then he draft Ke'Shawn Vaughn and said he views him as a back that can play on every down. Bucs director of player personnel John Spytek had this to about Vaughn as a pass catcher after the draft:

"He's a guy who can certainly help us in that realm," said Spytek. "As he continues to grow as a player he'll get more opportunities and he's got the ability to do a lot of things that we want a running back to do in the passing game. So it made a lot of sense from that standpoint. He's a good runner and a good receiver out of the backfield. He's got the ability to detach and run some of the routes that Coach Arians likes to do."

Clearly Vaughn is a guy that they believe can play a significant role in the passing game. Another thing to keep in mind is that Vaughn WAS a plus pass catcher with the opportunity

he was given in college--he had 14% of Vanderbilt's receptions, second most for RB's in division I behind only Eno Benjamin's 20%. You mention what RoJo did behind a porous o-line, the good news for Vaughn is that his production came behind the worst offensive line of any of the backs drafted in the top 3 rounds. If you watch his tape you will see the o-line blown off the ball play after play and Vaughn was still able to put up excellent production against the best competition in college football. This says a lot about his talent. It's silly to say that the only path to volume for Vaughn is injury to RoJo. You are pretending to put yourself in the minds of the coaches and saying that there is no way that Vaughn's play on the field could lead to more volume--that is a foolish take and one that loses people fantasy leagues. Peyton Barber essentially split backfield touches with RoJo last season. You mean to tell me that Vaughn, a more talented player than Barber, doesn't pose a significant threat to do the same and possibly more?

 

 

Open competition ? 13 lbs of mass, still a rookie, new system

 

Arians, like he said at the NFL Scouting Combine, wants a running back who is a true threat in the passing game, a wide receiver type who also runs the football. ... Arians praised Ronald Jones’ work as a screen-pass catcher but said that’s not enough to make RoJo a three-down back in his offense. “Dare [Ogunbowale] was pretty solid [at screens]. But just using backs out of the backfield as wide receivers, as primary receivers, that’s not RoJo’s deal,” Arians said. “But hopefully we can find somebody like that, you know, that can compete with Dare on third downs and become more of a wide receiver threat.” https://www.joebucsfan.com/2020/03/arians-third-down-wont-be-for-ronald-jones/

 

The first thing Arians mentioned during a media conference call Wednesday was acquiring a pass-catching running back, either in free agency or in next month’s draft. ... “Our backs did a very good job in the screen game last year, especially (Jones),” Arians said. “I

 

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On 5/4/2020 at 2:16 PM, paulwall29 said:

For me, him saying that Vaughn isn't David Johnson is pretty irrelevant here. ... As for your reference to Arians' comment, I can't find anything about him saying that the guy that they wanted had just come off the board (...). I agree that Antonio Gibson is much more comparable to DJ but the difference with Gibson is that he has very little experience playing the running back position--he is a raw prospect and will almost certainly take a longer time to transition to the position at the NFL level than Vaughn. ... To me the most important thing here is that he identifies Vaughn as an every down back. Arians ... specifically stated at the combine that he's looking for a back that can play every down. Then he draft Ke'Shawn Vaughn and said he views him as a back that can play on every down. ... 

You mention what RoJo did behind a porous o-line, the good news for Vaughn is that his production came behind the worst offensive line of any of the backs drafted in the top 3 rounds. If you watch his tape you will see the o-line blown off the ball play after play and Vaughn was still able to put up excellent production against the best competition in college football. This says a lot about his talent. It's silly to say that the only path to volume for Vaughn is injury to RoJo. ... Peyton Barber essentially split backfield touches with RoJo last season. You mean to tell me that Vaughn, a more talented player than Barber, doesn't pose a significant threat to do the same and possibly more?

 

The Arians comment pertaining to Antonio Gibson was from the same interview that you've cited & is sourced below. He's initially asked whether their board fell as expected & that third quote I have is exactly what he says. Again, later in the interview a reporter asks; (I'm paraphrasing) prior to the draft you said you were looking for a RB like David Johnson, did you get him? You & I both have already cited his response. Those two quotes, along with other factors is how I deduced that player being Gibson. Ball skills, speed & his usage as a WR had him as one of the better receiving prospects. Gibson is also a player they took a closer look at & the last RB to come off the board prior to their 3rd RD selection. Arians own draft history suggests he doesn't like taking a RB any earlier than the 3rd RD. We've also noted him stating that the last time this had occurred it involved the RB position. 

The initial quotes below aren't meant to dispute your contention they were looking for a RB with a 3-down skill set, but rather establishes that they were looking for a RB who could play the role of a featured WR, but also a guy who could stay on the field. I disagree with your contention that they were looking for an every down RB, drafted Vaughn, then depict him as such & thus, conclude they got the player they were looking for.

With respect to Jones, his height to weight ratio is not what evaluators look for. Last year, still very much an inexperienced player, carrying 13 additional lbs of mass & in a new system. He didn't break big but as the season wore on he started looking like the player they had hoped for. Due to his build, his workload may always need to be monitored. Barber's role, in part, due to that concern. When defenders aren't mindful, even Gronk can get knee-capitated! If that can happen to him it can happen to anyone. If, as I've assumed, we hear that Jones has had a similar offseason, I can't see him regressing. Perhaps he does, but if his development continues in it's current trend, again, Vaughn is going to need an injury to Jones. That is, to assume a heavy workload. 

Quote

"Arians, like he said at the NFL Scouting Combine, wants a running back who is a true threat in the passing game, a wide receiver type who also runs the football. ... Arians praised Ronald Jones’ work as a screen-pass catcher but said that’s not enough to make RoJo a three-down back in his offense. “Dare [Ogunbowale] was pretty solid [at screens]. But just using backs out of the backfield as wide receivers, as primary receivers, that’s not RoJo’s deal,” Arians said. “But hopefully we can find somebody like that, you know, that can compete with Dare on third downs and become more of a wide receiver threat.” https://www.joebucsfan.com/2020/03/arians-third-down-wont-be-for-ronald-jones/

"The first thing Arians mentioned during a media conference call Wednesday was acquiring a pass-catching running back, either in free agency or in next month’s draft. ... “Our backs did a very good job in the screen game last year, especially (Jones),” Arians said.https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2020/03/26/which-pass-catching-running-backs-are-the-best-fit-for-the-bucs/

"Yeah it was really, really close. There was a guy or two, one for sure I had my eye on that went before us & that always happens ... the last time that happened to me was Ameer Abdullah and we ended up with David Johnson." https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0r7sX4sr2Ig

 

 

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

 

The Arians comment pertaining to Antonio Gibson was from the same interview that you've cited & is sourced below. He's initially asked whether their board fell as expected & that third quote I have is exactly what he says. Again, later in the interview a reporter asks; (I'm paraphrasing) prior to the draft you said you were looking for a RB like David Johnson, did you get him? You & I both have already cited his response. Those two quotes, along with other factors is how I deduced that player being Gibson. Ball skills, speed & his usage as a WR had him as one of the better receiving prospects. Gibson is also a player they took a closer look at & the last RB to come off the board prior to their 3rd RD selection. Arians own draft history suggests he doesn't like taking a RB any earlier than the 3rd RD. We've also noted him stating that the last time this had occurred it involved the RB position. 

The initial quotes below aren't meant to dispute your contention they were looking for a RB with a 3-down skill set, but rather establishes that they were looking for a RB who could play the role of a featured WR, but also a guy who could stay on the field. I disagree with your contention that they were looking for an every down RB, drafted Vaughn, then depict him as such & thus, conclude they got the player they were looking for.

With respect to Jones, his height to weight ratio is not what evaluators look for. Last year, still very much an inexperienced player, carrying 13 additional lbs of mass & in a new system. He didn't break big but as the season wore on he started looking like the player they had hoped for. Due to his build, his workload may always need to be monitored. Barber's role, in part, due to that concern. When defenders aren't mindful, even Gronk can get knee-capitated! If that can happen to him it can happen to anyone. If, as I've assumed, we hear that Jones has had a similar offseason, I can't see him regressing. Perhaps he does, but if his development continues in it's current trend, again, Vaughn is going to need an injury to Jones. That is, to assume a heavy workload. 

 

 

 

Man, there is absolutely no mention of Antonio Gibson in any of those interviews, not that it should matter much if he was mentioned, but it's misleading that you are including his name. Arians was asked if he got every guy he wanted in the draft and he said, "almost, there was a guy I was interested in that got taken in front of us but that always happens. Last time that happened to me I wanted Ameer Abdullah and got David Johnson." It appears that you are assuming that he is referring to the same scenario in this years draft in wanting Antonio Gibson but getting KeShawn Vaughn, but he never says this and just uses the Ameer/DJ thing as an example of not always getting your top targets.

Also, I'm confused by your last two posts. What are you trying to say? Just to make my ideas clear for you, this is what I think about this backfield: I do NOT think that Vaughn will come in and take Jones' job outright. I think that Jones will be used in the Lagerette Blount role as the 2 down and goal line back and will be a good value in standard league drafts. I think Vaughn's initial role will be in the Dion Lewis/James White role where he will be the primary 3rd down back and will be mixed in on 1st and 2nd downs, essentially soaking up Peyton Barber's usage last season. I think Dare O and Calais will have very small roles in the backfield this season. This means that Vaughn will be more valuable in PPR leagues.

The reason I like this landing spot for Vaughn is because Vaughn is an Arians draft pick and Jones is not, Arians recognizes that Vaughn has a 3 down skillset, Ronald Jones got in his doghouse last year for his poor blitz pickup, which is something that won't be tolerated with Brady at QB. There are several routes to Vaughn taking over primary backfield duties: simply outproducing RoJo, the fact that he has a skillset to be a better all purpose back which will lead to more 3rd down usage, RoJo getting in the doghouse for pass pro issues or fumbling, RoJo getting hurt. RoJo's biggest threat to his Job last season was Peyton Barber, who is not even a league average running back. Vaughn is a far superior talent to Barber, thus, he is a much bigger threat to RoJo. 

Regardless of whatever scenario plays out, Ronald Jones is not going to be used as the primary passing downs back so I think that Vaughn is the better target for fantasy purposes (unless you play in a standard format).

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2 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Man, there is absolutely no mention of Antonio Gibson in any of those interviews, not that it should matter much if he was mentioned, but it's misleading that you are including his name. Arians was asked if he got every guy he wanted in the draft and he said, "almost, there was a guy I was interested in that got taken in front of us but that always happens. Last time that happened to me I wanted Ameer Abdullah and got David Johnson." It appears that you are assuming that he is referring to the same scenario in this years draft in wanting Antonio Gibson but getting KeShawn Vaughn, but he never says this and just uses the Ameer/DJ thing as an example of not always getting your top targets. 

You're right, Gibson isn't named specifically. But again, one of the Bucs picks was selected after a player Arians wanted had come off the board. So the premise is indeed a fact. The question isn't answered with yes or no, but with which selection did it occur? Wirfs is a guy they traded up to get, so it isn't him. Then, with Cam Akers still on the board, they select a 5' 9" guy to play in the back. I wouldn't have done that but they love Winfield Jr' versatility. For them he fills a need & Bowles likes moving his safeties around. Every indication suggests he's also a player they wanted. 

Further into the interview Jason Licht jokes about how he let Arians pick a guy from Nebraska before he selected a player from Temple. Sure enough, a player from each program was selected. Earlier Arians is asked whether drafting two RBs was the plan or was it just how the board fell. He responds by saying that he wanted a guy that can do everything & a "joystick"  a guy he "can play with", referring to Calais. So, of the day 3 players there's perhaps, Tyler Johnson, taken with the 161st pick. What is there to suggest this was the selection Arians was referring to?

"... I do NOT think that Vaughn will come in and take Jones' job outright. I think that Jones will be used in the Lagerette Blount role as the 2 down and goal line back and will be a good value in standard league drafts. I think Vaughn's initial role will be in the Dion Lewis/James White role where he will be the primary 3rd down back and will be mixed in on 1st and 2nd downs, essentially soaking up Peyton Barber's usage last season. I think Dare O and Calais will have very small roles in the backfield this season."

I agree that Jones shouldn't be viewed as a high volume RB. But consistently get this guy in space & he'll hit home runs. If they fix the greater issues on that offense, with 15-20 touches per, I think he'd have an excellent chance to outperform his adp. 

The reason I like this landing spot for Vaughn is because Vaughn is an Arians draft pick and Jones is not, Arians recognizes that Vaughn has a 3 down skillset, Ronald Jones got in his doghouse last year for his poor blitz pickup, which is something that won't be tolerated with Brady at QB. There are several routes to Vaughn taking over primary backfield duties: simply outproducing RoJo, the fact that he has a skillset to be a better all purpose back which will lead to more 3rd down usage, RoJo getting in the doghouse for pass pro issues or fumbling, RoJo getting hurt. RoJo's biggest threat to his Job last season was Peyto Barber, who is not even a league average running back. Vaughn is a far superior talent to Barber, thus, he is a much bigger threat to RoJo. 

Jason Licth is still there, he obviously had a hand in drafting Ronald Jones. Accordingly, he's the reason Arians is there. Earlier in the thread we talked about the play that got Jones benched. A lot of things that went wrong with that play. When defenses get into their mix up front, breakdowns in protection are going to occur. That this was the case on this given play is indicative of just how friggin' messed up that offense was! Tom Brady would not have run that play, he would've more likely just handed the ball off to Jones. I'm curious, I'd be interested looking over your source contending Vandy's OL was junk. 

 

 

 

 

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Like I said, whether or not they wanted Antonio Gibson is irrelevant, Vaughn is the back on the team. This is where I am getting my info on the Vandy O-line (which it's pretty common knowledge at this point how atrocious they were: https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-ranking-all-130-college-football-offensive-line-situations

Hahahahahahahaha are you seriously trying to defend RoJo's pass blocking? Clearly you don't know that he ranked 66 out of 75 qualifiers in pass blocking efficiency. It's common knowledge that he's not good in this department. Playing alongside Peyton Barber and Dare O he saw just 33% of the snaps on passing downs--this is a clear indication that they do not want him on the field in these situations if they can help it. What do you think is going to happen now that a guy like Vaughn is in the fold?

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12 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

Like I said, whether or not they wanted Antonio Gibson is irrelevant, Vaughn is the back on the team. This is where I am getting my info on the Vandy O-line (which it's pretty common knowledge at this point how atrocious they were: https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-ranking-all-130-college-football-offensive-line-situations

Hahahahahahahaha are you seriously trying to defend RoJo's pass blocking? Clearly you don't know that he ranked 66 out of 75 qualifiers in pass blocking efficiency. It's common knowledge that he's not good in this department. Playing alongside Peyton Barber and Dare O he saw just 33% of the snaps on passing downs--this is a clear indication that they do not want him on the field in these situations if they can help it. What do you think is going to happen now that a guy like Vaughn is in the fold?


That Gibson wasn’t mentioned in those interviews certainly seemed like a bone of contention for you, but I get it. There’s no way around having to acknowledge that one of those draft picks was not the player Arians had his eye on, the evidence pointing toward Vaughn is pretty strong. Your source grading Vandy’s OL doesn’t tell us what’s taken into consideration, leaving  it’s accuracy unknown. According to football outsiders, Tampa’s OL was ranked the 23rd unit at run blocking & 22nd protecting the QB. Same consideration though, those figures don’t tell us how often the offense was in the wrong play, which is huge. Or how often the defense stacked the box or how often they blitzed the QB, how long the QB tended to hold onto the football, none of it. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/offensive-line/2019 

Below appears to be your source of information pertaining to Jones In PP. Thought I’d add back the content that was left out....

Quote

As a receiver, Jones was RB7 in Yards per Route run, besting Christian McCaffrey, Kamara and Aaron Jones among many others. ... [Jones] ranked 66 out of 75 qualifying RBs in pass blocking efficiency, allowing a sack, two hits and five hurries in 49 pass blocking snaps. For the record, Dare Ogunbowale and Peyton Barber were almost as bad, and offer far less as receivers. But the Buccaneers clearly don’t trust Jones on passing downs: he saw just 33% of the passing snaps in 2019. Maddeningly, poor pass blocking wasn’t a limiting factor for some of 2019’s most prolific receiving RBs, Melvin Gordon, Dalvin Cook, Phillip Lindsay, and Leonard Fournette all managed well above Jones’ 40 targets while also being poor pass blockers. They just weren’t asked to do what they weren’t good at — pass blocking on between 6-14% of their pass snaps.

Jones however, was asked to protect 22% of the time, making him the RB14 in pass blocking %. Let me emphasize that: Even though he was effective as a receiver, but ineffective as a pass blocker, Jones was asked to pass block as much as 3.5x more than other RBs with his passing down skill set. In fact, all three of Tampa Bay’s RBs ranked top-14 in pass blocking percentage. This was very likely a function of Tampa Bay’s poor offensive line play, and not a feature of the Bruce Arians offense, as Arians hasn’t had multiple RBs blocking on over 20% of their pass snaps since 2012.
 https://establishtherun.com/rbs-to-avoid-in-best-ball-and-dynasty/
 

Quote


“Tampa Bay has allowed 30 sacks and 27 quarterback hits, in part because of a new scheme Winston hasn’t mastered. Certainly, it isn’t a surprise. Arians tries to get five eligible receivers into routes on every pass play. ... This has resulted in some pretty high sack numbers for Arians’ quarterbacks: 41 in 2016 and 52 in 2017 with the Cardinals. The Bucs inconsistent offensive line is certainly a factor. So are injuries. ... Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich said Winston also is partially at fault.“ https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2019/11/08/why-the-hits-keep-coming-for-jameis-winston/ 


I find the “statistical” rating of Jones Jr. in pass protection to be at best subjective & likely, meaningless! 

 

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2 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 


That Gibson wasn’t mentioned in those interviews certainly seemed like a bone of contention for you, but I get it. There’s no way around having to acknowledge that one of those draft picks was not the player Arians had his eye on, the evidence pointing toward Vaughn is pretty strong. Your source grading Vandy’s OL doesn’t tell us what’s taken into consideration, leaving  it’s accuracy unknown. According to football outsiders, Tampa’s OL was ranked the 23rd unit at run blocking & 22nd protecting the QB. Same consideration though, those figures don’t tell us how often the offense was in the wrong play, which is huge. Or how often the defense stacked the box or how often they blitzed the QB, how long the QB tended to hold onto the football, none of it. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/offensive-line/2019 

Below appears to be your source of information pertaining to Jones In PP. Thought I’d add back the content that was left out....


I find the “statistical” rating of Jones Jr. in pass protection at best subjective & likely, meaningless! 

 

 

Lol basically no matter what I show you, you will refute it. It's common knowledge that the Vandy O-line was horrible (regardless of whether you believe it and question it) and that Jones sucks as a pass blocker (hence him getting benched). I will trust football analytics professionals over your eyeball test. Not sure what point you're trying to make about the Tampa O line, everyone knows that they sucked. The good news for Vaughn is that he already posted good numbers behind a bad o line.

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Don't get confused now.  Just because Arians signed Brady, does not mean they are installing the Patriots offense.  Tampa Bay will be running Bruce Arians's offense.  And that offense calls for one running back, playing on all three downs, to run the ball, catch the ball out of the backfield on WR type routes, and protect the quarterback.  Ronald Jones is okay at one of those three things and pretty horrible at the other two.  This will be Vaughn's backfield even if Jones stays 100% healhy.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Don't get confused now.  Just because Arians signed Brady, does not mean they are installing the Patriots offense.  Tampa Bay will be running Bruce Arians's offense.  And that offense calls for one running back, playing on all three downs, to run the ball, catch the ball out of the backfield on WR type routes, and protect the quarterback.  Ronald Jones is okay at one of those three things and pretty horrible at the other two.  This will be Vaughn's backfield even if Jones stays 100% healhy.

We have no idea how Vaughn will perform in any one of those three things at the NFL level.  I strongly believe that if you draft Vaughn with the expectation that he will soon overtake RJII completely and take on an every-down role, you will end up regretting that draft pick in 2020.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Don't get confused now.  Just because Arians signed Brady, does not mean they are installing the Patriots offense.  Tampa Bay will be running Bruce Arians's offense.  And that offense calls for one running back, playing on all three downs, to run the ball, catch the ball out of the backfield on WR type routes, and protect the quarterback.  Ronald Jones is okay at one of those three things and pretty horrible at the other two.  This will be Vaughn's backfield even if Jones stays 100% healhy.

Oh BLESS sharky 

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19 minutes ago, BMcP said:

We have no idea how Vaughn will perform in any one of those three things at the NFL level.  I strongly believe that if you draft Vaughn with the expectation that he will soon overtake RJII completely and take on an every-down role, you will end up regretting that draft pick in 2020.

And I firmly believe that Bruce Arians will keep praising Ronald Jones all summer, when, in fact, Jones has taken up permanent residence in the palatial suite that is Arians's doghouse.

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