Ke'Shawn Vaughn 2020 Outlook

[DerrickHenrysCleats 6,008]

He won't do better than Josh Jacobs did as a rookie so temper expectations.

 

He won't even be a top 3 rookie RB

[BMcP 8,612]

3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

And I firmly believe that Bruce Arians will keep praising Ronald Jones all summer, when, in fact, Jones has taken up permanent residence in the palatial suite that is Arians's doghouse.

I guess we shall see.  I’d be happy to be proven wrong if it meant we could have some sports again.

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

He won't do better than Josh Jacobs did as a rookie so temper expectations.

 

He won't even be a top 3 rookie RB

Vaughn has less competition for carries compared to CEH, Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, etc.

Because they all have competition and Vaughn doesn't.

[BMcP 8,612]

5 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Vaughn has less competition for carries compared to CEH, Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, etc.

Because they all have competition and Vaughn doesn't.

The guy who doesn’t have competition is Gibson - not Vaughn.

[Impreza178 6,046]

13 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Vaughn has less competition for carries compared to CEH, Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, etc.

Because they all have competition and Vaughn doesn't.

This dude gonna kneecap Rojo and claim victory 

 

🦈 🦈 🦈 

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

38 minutes ago, BMcP said:

The guy who doesn’t have competition is Gibson - not Vaughn.

I consider AD and Guice to be much stiffer competition than Ronald Jones.

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

31 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

This dude gonna kneecap Rojo and claim victory 

 

🦈 🦈 🦈 

No need.  Ronald Jones has already "knee-capped" himself by blowing pass pro and route assignments and getting himself repeatedly benched.

[BMcP 8,612]

3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I consider AD and Guice to be much stiffer competition than Ronald Jones.

AD’s “Day” is nearly done.  Guice can’t stay healthy to save his life.

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

47 minutes ago, BMcP said:

AD’s “Day” is nearly done.  Guice can’t stay healthy to save his life.

And yet both are far better than Ronald Jones.

[BMcP 8,612]

Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

And yet both are far better than Ronald Jones.

Talent-wise?  Sure.  Otherwise...

Have at it, if you buy into Vaughn as an every-down back in 2020.

[Impreza178 6,046]

54 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

No need.  Ronald Jones has already "knee-capped" himself by blowing pass pro and route assignments and getting himself repeatedly benched.

I’m sure the rookie won’t make any mistakes and get pulled.    

 

for the entire game 🙄 

 

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

38 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

I’m sure the rookie won’t make any mistakes and get pulled.    

 

for the entire game 🙄 

 

Oh Arians would never do that, uh, anymore.  Now that Brady is in town, Arians is going to throw out his own offensive playbook, be kind to rookies, and get bunk beds so he can room with OJ Howard.

[DerrickHenrysCleats 6,008]

Dare Ogunbowale is a good receiving back and Arians liked him as the most reliable pass blocker, I don't think Vaughn takes his snaps.

 

I don't think bruce Arians likes rojo but I don't think he cuts him either. He probably splits some 1st and 2nd down work. 

 

I think Vaughn is a rookie and will struggle early on. I liken his situation to that of Miles Sanders last year. He was behind some guys to start the season, he struggle initially but as the season wore on and the RBs in front of him got hurt or were ineffective Miles came in and helped win people fantasy championships and is starting this year as the full time RB. I could see Vaughn following a similar path. This time next year he will have put rojo in the rear view mirror and could split a few passing reps with ogunbowale like miles sanders will with Scott this year.

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

If Bruce Arians was happy with the RBs the Bucs used in 2019, he would not have used a high draft pick on a running back.  Arians only used a RBBC out of desperation last season.  A single primary running back is his demonstrable preference.

Edited May 8, 2020 by SharkSwimmer

[paulwall29 850]

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If Bruce Arians was happy with the RBs the Bucs used in 2019, he would not have used a high draft pick on a running back.  Arians only used a RBBC out of desperation last season.  A single primary running back is his demonstrable preference.

 

I totally agree with this. He could have just signed Devonta Freeman or Lamar Miller--he didn't. He drafted a young, talented rookie that he views as a three down back, very telling.

[BMcP 8,612]

1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I totally agree with this. He could have just signed Devonta Freeman or Lamar Miller--he didn't. He drafted a young, talented rookie that he views as a three down back, very telling.

23 is actually on the older side for a rookie RB - but I otherwise agree that Arians would prefer to have an RB that could be used on every down.

[paulwall29 850]

5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

23 is actually on the older side for a rookie RB - but I otherwise agree that Arians would prefer to have an RB that could be used on every down.

 

Older by comparison but objectively young. His being older for a rookie is pretty irrelevant as far as his value for this year and next and may actually be a good thing. He wasn't run into the ground in college either.

[BMcP 8,612]

30 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Older by comparison but objectively young. His being older for a rookie is pretty irrelevant as far as his value for this year and next and may actually be a good thing. He wasn't run into the ground in college either.

Right - it’s not a re-draft concern, just a dynasty concern.  That’s where I imagine he will be much more valuable and sought-after.

[paulwall29 850]

42 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Right - it’s not a re-draft concern, just a dynasty concern.  That’s where I imagine he will be much more valuable and sought-after.

 

Still should be a first rounder in dynasty (unless you are rebuilding and opt WR for longer shelf life). In dynasty I view things in 2-3 year windows. Vaughn landed in an excellent offense with a coach that likes to utilize guys with his skillset and a QB that takes what is there and has no problem checking down to RB's. Getting an RB2 with RB1 upside for 2-3 years is incredibly valuable and rare to find at the back-end of rookie drafts. 

[Impreza178 6,046]

9 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Still should be a first rounder in dynasty (unless you are rebuilding and opt WR for longer shelf life). In dynasty I view things in 2-3 year windows. Vaughn landed in an excellent offense with a coach that likes to utilize guys with his skillset and a QB that takes what is there and has no problem checking down to RB's. Getting an RB2 with RB1 upside for 2-3 years is incredibly valuable and rare to find at the back-end of rookie drafts. 

Agree that hes worth a late first in dynasty rookie drafts-   There is potential here even if he’s not the lead.  
 

You can stop drooling now Paul Wall 😆 

[SharkSwimmer 4,953]

If only it had been De'Andre Swift instead...

Sad

Shark

[the_dying_dream 188]

Rojo still had over 4ypc behind that crappy line and improved on pass protection late in the year. He had the wrong attitude year one and paid for it. He changed his attitude, body, and work ethic last off-season. Arians likes Rojo, but given what they have and want (Superbowl bound team) they need another rb regardless. 

What does Arians love and value? Pass catching rbs. Hence the pick. Rojo is not a terrible pass catcher either. He caught 31/49 targets for 342 yards (Only one of those was a drop). I have followed the bucs pretty closely and believe this is Rojos job to lose. The only way he loses it is letting Brady get flattened once or twice.

Brady loves to dump off and whoever that rb is will be valuable. Both rbs will have a role regardless, but anyone investing in Vaughn would be foolish not to lockup Rojo, especially with his lower price. 

Edited May 9, 2020 by the_dying_dream

[Ddam2013 607]

I’m very conflicted over Vaughn in Dynasty leagues. IMO any time a team drafts a RB on day 1 or 2 they have to be planning on using him, those are valuable picks especially at a devalued RB position across the NFL. But Vaughn is 23 years old, so using college stats/film to show how good of a player he is, is pointless. A 22/23 year old should dominate in college football as he is significantly older than his competition. If Ronald Jones was to go to Vanderbilt this year I would bet that he would easily out produce Vaughn.

I honesty just don’t know what to think about these two, in redraft I would be willing to take Vaughn/Jones at like the 7/8 turn but I’m definitely not taking one without the other.

In dynasty leagues I won’t be drafting him at all unless my league drafts during the pre season and he clearly looks like a better player than Jones against NFL competition. He has a chance to be a starting RB so he will probably go in the 8-12 range and I would rather have Reagor or Jefferson over him. To me the stats Jones put up as a 22 year old in the NFL are far more impressive than the stats Vaughn put up last year as a 22 year old in college.

But hey who knows I could very well be wrong, I’m just going to wait until Vaughn plays against NFL competition before making my final decision on how I feel about him.

[Impreza178 6,046]

9 hours ago, the_dying_dream said:

Rojo still had over 4ypc behind that crappy line and improved on pass protection late in the year. He had the wrong attitude year one and paid for it. He changed his attitude, body, and work ethic last off-season. Arians likes Rojo, but given what they have and want (Superbowl bound team) they need another rb regardless. 

What does Arians love and value? Pass catching rbs. Hence the pick. Rojo is not a terrible pass catcher either. He caught 31/49 targets for 342 yards (Only one of those was a drop). I have followed the bucs pretty closely and believe this is Rojos job to lose. The only way he loses it is letting Brady get flattened once or twice.

Brady loves to dump off and whoever that rb is will be valuable. Both rbs will have a role regardless, but anyone investing in Vaughn would be foolish not to lockup Rojo, especially with his lower price. 

Rojo will be a pleasant surprise this season methinks.   2019 was basically his rookie season,  and Arians responded in kind.   Benched for every mistake and held accountable down to the minute in practices and meetings.    He responded well and kept his cool even tho players these days are soft and don’t take tough love kindly.    His YPC was easily better than Barber, and he showed pass catching chops that were a major red flag out of USC.  Every team drafts guys like Vaughn to see what they can be-   But Arians history strongly favors limiting rookies and giving the majority volume to a vet.   
 

if Vaughn works hard and proves himself to Big Daddy Bruce... 2021 could be a different story.   They like his potential obviously.    Late first round dynasty pick.   Late redraft flyer. 

 

[markrc99 611]

 

10 hours ago, the_dying_dream said:

Rojo still had over 4ypc behind that crappy line and improved on pass protection late in the year. He had the wrong attitude year one and paid for it. He changed his attitude, body, and work ethic last off-season. Arians likes Rojo, but given what they have and want (Superbowl bound team) they need another rb regardless. 

What does Arians love and value? Pass catching rbs. Hence the pick. Rojo is not a terrible pass catcher either. He caught 31/49 targets for 342 yards (Only one of those was a drop). I have followed the bucs pretty closely and believe this is Rojos job to lose. The only way he loses it is letting Brady get flattened once or twice.

Brady loves to dump off and whoever that rb is will be valuable. Both rbs will have a role regardless, but anyone investing in Vaughn would be foolish not to lockup Rojo, especially with his lower price. 

 

Totally agree, both RBs are potential value plays. I also agree that Jones did much better as a runner & receiver. Further, citing playerprofile.com, the average number of defenders in the box he faced (7.0) was the 5th most among RBs. His stacked front figure was the 6th highest! I don’t know about 300+ touches, but should he avoid serious injury, I do think 250 touches is likely. Your sticking point is pass-protection & most would agree.

Others will consider what they will, but is pass-protect mode for RBs equal across the NFL? Is pass protecting for Kyle Shanahan in his run heavy system as equally difficult than for Bruce Arians, with that OL? I would sooner believe it’s not. I did go back & review the play that got Jones benched, he wasn’t positioned to the wrong side, he took himself there. He thought he was assigned to protect Winston’s blind side, which ironically, is where they usually have him. Or perhaps where they had him for that game. But again, this play, which occurred well into the 3rd qtr, was a 1st & 10 in Jacksonville territory. Tampa was ahead 25-0, yet, Arians or Leftwich subjects Winston to a jailbreak!

Accordingly, of the sacks Winston took, much of the responsibility is on him, but also Arians. First in Arizona, now Tampa, his QBs get hit & sacked a lot. Any OL or protection scheme frequently subjected to the pass rush & elaborate blitz packages is going to appear worse than they are. Arians loves pass-catching RBs & so does Brady. But according to Paul’s source, Tampa RBs are asked to pass protect far more frequently than their peers. Just James White alone was targeted 95 times last year. It would seem one of those two things has to change or some of both.

Remember when Peyton Manning went to Denver & Gary Kubiak decided he’d be the one calling the plays? That lasted for a game & and a half. Magically, in the 2nd half of week 2 Manning looked like, well, Peyton Manning again.  I don’t think a clash of egos plays out here & I think the plays will come in from the sideline, but Tom Brady will be deciding what play they’re in!