Justin Herbert 2020 Outlook

[The G Man 1,069]

• JUSTIN HERBERT, QB LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

  

  Chargers selected Oregon QB Justin Herbert with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

  Herbert (6’6/236) is the third signal caller off the board in the first six picks, and will be the Chargers' first new starter at quarterback since 2006. Herbert opted to stay at Oregon for all four seasons despite receiving top-five buzz ahead of the 2019 NFL Draft. He ended his collegiate career with a lopsided 95 touchdowns to 23 picks (and 8.2 YPA) largely because of his elite arm strength. Arguably too reserved in college, Herbert’s traits are best-suited for a vertical or play-action offense. His overall accuracy (64% career completion rate) and stone hands (26 fumbles in 43 starts) are genuine concerns. A gifted athlete with 4.68 speed, Herbert has the ability to scramble for first downs when the pocket collapses and can handle designed runs, which increases his odds of panning out as a rookie starter and franchise cornerstone. While his size, arm talent, and mobility are prototypical of what NFL front offices covet, he needs to improve upon his in-pocket awareness and decision-making to unlock the upside of those gifted tools. Easing the transition will be a strong Chargers skill corps led by Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry. Herbert still seems like a prime candidate for severe rookie growing pains. 

  Apr 23, 2020, 9:02 PM ET

   
•  

[Boudewijn 4,727]

 

 

[MJJ28 1,133]

He’ll probably be another guy people look stupid for mocking as soon as the games start. Seems to be a new trend these days.

[Boudewijn 4,727]

22 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

He’ll probably be another guy people look stupid for mocking as soon as the games start. Seems to be a new trend these days.

Yeah absoutely agree here. I was thinking Josh Allen, or Kyler Murray, or even Daniel Jones who were bashed by a lot of people (I might have joined in a bit) and then turned out somewhere between decent and pretty darn good. It's clear that even in 2020 transferring College skills to the NFL (especially for QBs and WRs) is not an exact science.

[The G Man 1,069]

I really like kid and hope he does well. Will be interesting to see how he does in comparison to Tua 3-5 years from now. 

[Br0kenB 1,943]

I think he will be pretty good. He has a very strong supporting cast, a revamped offensive line, and he seems like a really hard worker with some natural arm talent. Out of the gate, I think he will struggle, but I do think that the Chargers have their guy for the next 10 years with Herbert.

[lolcopter 7,890]

his decision to go back to school says all I need to know about his long term potential

to clarify, he's not smart. and apparently not a leader either. Have fun, Bolts!

Edited April 27, 2020 by lolcopter

[devaster 4,406]

I think he will struggle in the NFL. He has had accuracy issues in college and was never confident pulling the trigger beyond his 1st read. That will get a QB killed in the NFL with what will likely be a lot of sacks because he holds onto the ball too long and interceptions because windows close much faster and are much smaller in the NFL. He didn't play in a QB-friendly scheme in CFB at all, but the traits aren't there to translate to the NFL besides his arm strength and physical traits.

Odd that Mariota has had similar issues pulling the trigger and these are the last two Oregon QB's drafted in the top-10.

Edited April 27, 2020 by devaster

[mocha4313 818]

 

Someone was gonna make the mistake of thinking him. Chargers being that team makes perfect sense. I'm avoiding in dynasty or redraft. Long term I even prefer Love and Hurts over him. 

Feel like no one stayed up to watch Oregon games and find out he sucks

[Evincar 1,722]

On 4/27/2020 at 12:41 AM, Boudewijn said:

 

 

 

Yikes there's some ugly stuff on his film.

I read somewhere that "better Josh Allen" is a good comp for him. He'll have significantly better talent around him in his rookie season than Allen.

[Gohawks 10,213]

I watch a lot of PAC12 football and honestly I was flat out blown away...by how Herbert was viewed as a top 5 pick.

Him and Eason are fairly similar. Very good prototype QBs that can make all the throws from an athleticism perspective except they struggle in decision making, accuracy, and often times seem lost. The difference is Eason has solid footwork and better mechanics overall. One went top 10 the other went in the 4th round... Absolutely mind boggling to me. 

[Gohawks 10,213]

On 4/26/2020 at 10:26 PM, MJJ28 said:

He’ll probably be another guy people look stupid for mocking as soon as the games start. Seems to be a new trend these days.

Lynch, Rosen, Bortles, and Trubisky were all drafted because they had the prototypical size and athleticism for the position but really displayed little of the skill needed. Allen the case is still out on him. He’s flashed signs but he also looks awful when forced to throw a lot of the time.

The only first round QB that was picked on pretty much potential alone that’s worked out as of late is Goff and he’s starting to look more and more like the product of McVays offense than anything else. 

[mocha4313 818]

 

On 5/2/2020 at 1:44 AM, Gohawks said:

Lynch, Rosen, Bortles, and Trubisky were all drafted because they had the prototypical size and athleticism for the position but really displayed little of the skill needed. Allen the case is still out on him. He’s flashed signs but he also looks awful when forced to throw a lot of the time.

The only first round QB that was picked on pretty much potential alone that’s worked out as of late is Goff and he’s starting to look more and more like the product of McVays offense than anything else. 

This I'll disagree with. Rosen was the opposite of this: he was drafted as a pro ready polished prospect. I remember all the laughing at the Bills for Allen over Rosen.

That said: with regard to Herbert

I did a more in depth look at his tape because I was offered him in a trade in SF:

Lynch and Bortles were "potential" but prolific in college and frankly their production impressed me much more than Herbert's.

I rarely ever say statements like this (worst ever, best ever) but he is the single worst prospect first round QB prospect I have ever seen and worse than quite a few 2nd-3rd round guys

 

The city of Miami should have been protesting in front of the stadium if they took this scrub over Tua.

[mocha4313 818]

On 4/26/2020 at 10:26 PM, MJJ28 said:

He’ll probably be another guy people look stupid for mocking as soon as the games start. Seems to be a new trend these days.

I'll take Jordan Love or even Hurts if he gets a chance to be that guy from this class well before Herbert

At least Love had the excuse of playing with 2 star talent like Allen did

Hurts is more projection

Edited July 3, 2020 by mocha4313

[Gohawks 10,213]

8 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

 

This I'll disagree with. Rosen was the opposite of this: he was drafted as a pro ready polished prospect. I remember all the laughing at the Bills for Allen over Rosen.

That said: with regard to Herbert

I did a more in depth look at his tape because I was offered him in a trade in SF:

Lynch and Bortles were "potential" but prolific in college and frankly their production impressed me much more than Herbert's.

I rarely ever say statements like this (worst ever, best ever) but he is the single worst prospect first round QB prospect I have ever seen and worse than quite a few 2nd-3rd round guys

 

The city of Miami should have been protesting in front of the stadium if they took this scrub over Tua.

Go read any scouting report mate. Yes, Rosen was viewed as being more NFL ready than most guys. However, he was also viewed as a guy with a massive arm and NFL QB size. I didn't like him at all though and I also really didn't like Allen which I may be wrong on but we will see. 

As for Herbert, I 100% agree. He is the most overrated QB prospect of my life and i'm someone that watches a lot of PAC12 football due to being a Huskies fan. Him and Eason are extremely similar. Great prospects that showed flashes but both have A LOT of holes. One went in the top 10 the other in the fourth round. It's just absolutely mind boggling to me. 

[mocha4313 818]

31 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Go read any scouting report mate. Yes, Rosen was viewed as being more NFL ready than most guys. However, he was also viewed as a guy with a massive arm and NFL QB size. I didn't like him at all though and I also really didn't like Allen which I may be wrong on but we will see. 

As for Herbert, I 100% agree. He is the most overrated QB prospect of my life and i'm someone that watches a lot of PAC12 football due to being a Huskies fan. Him and Eason are extremely similar. Great prospects that showed flashes but both have A LOT of holes. One went in the top 10 the other in the fourth round. It's just absolutely mind boggling to me. 

From Rosen's BR scouting report: his negatives seem to be athleticism, being a statue in the pocket, off field voicing of opinions, "being too smart/bad teammate" and injuries

with positives being: clean mechanics, accuracy, arm strength, footwork, touch and pocket presence

Seems to have a lack of some skills but a far cry from a full out project

 

I have been staying up more in recent years to watch the PAC 12. The quality of play sucks quite frankly but it can also be ridiculously entertaining

He just doesn't go through reads. Part of it's the system but it's his processing too. He looks at one read then takes off running just like Trubs but with even worse touch on passes (just throws bullets)

His pocket presence is also atrocious and was covered up by an elite O-Line to combine with poor accuracy covered up by Oregon throwing like 30 screens and 3 yard crosses

Speaking of which: he played at the only PAC school besides USC stacked with 5 stars and pulling in top 10 classes yearly and only managed to win the conference once.

The fact he was anywhere near Burrow/Tua is a joke

Those guys were carving up Auburn and Georgia while Herbert was getting plastered by 5-7 Arizona and their 3 star recruits

 

Not sure I am as opposed to "project" QBs as you are though: I seem to remember Wentz having a fair bit of projection in his outlook with mechanical issues. Mahomes was a full blown project with awful decision making and mechanics. Rodgers' footwork/mechanics weren't great either. There's a reason he sat for so long beyond just Favre. Matt Ryan's decision making and INT totals were seen as a work in progress. Stafford was another arm strength and tools guy. Ben as well with the added advantage of mobility/athleticism but playing at a small school. Tannehill was something similar with the "tools and toughness" according to Mcshay but with inexperience and lack of intangibles

 

None of those guys though had so many negatives while also playing with great talent.

This guy sucks. Glad to have him in the division

Though with the 2021 QB class and the Chargers (IMO) looking like a dumpster fire I don't think he is in the division long

Edited July 3, 2020 by mocha4313

[Flyman75 5,102]

9 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Speaking of which: he played at the only PAC school besides USC stacked with 5 stars and pulling in top 10 classes yearly and only managed to win the conference once.

The fact he was anywhere near Burrow/Tua is a joke

I don’t disagree with you on Herbert, but I will say you’re vastly overrating his supporting cast at Oregon. Herbert was a part of the 2016 Oregon class that ranked 27th. Going back to 2014 to get a wider grasp of the recruited talent on his team, Oregon had two 5-star players from the 2014-2019 classes, and those classes were ranked 21st, 16th, 27th, 19th, 13th, and 7th. So the only top 10 class at Oregon on his sideline was the freshman class of his final season. 

That said, your point remains in that if he was really worthy of a top 10 pick, shouldn’t he had elevated those classes to something more in a weak conference. And I’m glad I’m not the only one perplexed by the hype surrounding him. 

Since you mentioned Burrow and Tua, to put into perspective the difference in talent surround them vs Herbert...

2014-19...Oregon one top-10 class, two top-15 classes, two 5-stars. 
2014-19...Alabama six top-5 classes, top class five times, 26 5-stars. 
2014-19...LSU six top-7 classes, 2nd to Bama twice, 13 5-stars. 

But Burrow and Tua were also in a vastly superior conference to the Pac-12, and are much more refined passers than Herbert has even dreamed about being. 

ETA: recruiting info is courtesy of 247 Sports. I’m a member of their LSU site. 

Edited July 3, 2020 by Flyman75

[Gohawks 10,213]

On 7/2/2020 at 11:58 PM, mocha4313 said:

Not sure I am as opposed to "project" QBs as you are though: I seem to remember Wentz having a fair bit of projection in his outlook with mechanical issues. Mahomes was a full blown project with awful decision making and mechanics. Rodgers' footwork/mechanics weren't great either. There's a reason he sat for so long beyond just Favre. Matt Ryan's decision making and INT totals were seen as a work in progress. Stafford was another arm strength and tools guy. Ben as well with the added advantage of mobility/athleticism but playing at a small school. Tannehill was something similar with the "tools and toughness" according to Mcshay but with inexperience and lack of intangibles

 

None of those guys though had so many negatives while also playing with great talent.

This guy sucks. Glad to have him in the division

Though with the 2021 QB class and the Chargers (IMO) looking like a dumpster fire I don't think he is in the division long

I'm not 100% opposed to project QBs. I liked Mahomes because his decision making was more wreckless compared to like Herbert where wreckless is the wrong word. It's just...wrong. It's a lot easier to fix a guy that always tries to do too much compared to a guy that doesn't know what to do. Mahomes also had a flat out cannon of an arm.

Lacking in accuracy, some decision making, and mechanics doesn't make me write off a college QB. Those are things that can be brushed up in the NFL. Something I always look for is leadership, the "it" factor, ability to make plays when needed, and things along those lines along with the typical QB tools. That's why I thought Watson should be the first overall pick. 

I just don't see any of it in Herbert. LIke at all. Decision making was just flat out awful, never saw the "it" factor, made a lot of terrible plays down the stretch, and just overall didn't impress me. Doesn't mean I think he will bust because he obviously has the size and talent needed to be good in the NFL but 6th overall? Hell no. 

[Boudewijn 4,727]

1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

where wreckless is the wrong word. It's just...wrong.

Yes. The word is reckless.

reckless

/ˈrɛkləs/

 

adjective

1. heedless of danger or the consequences of one's actions; rash or impetuous.

   "you mustn't be so reckless"

[BMcP 8,683]

5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Yes. The word is reckless.

reckless

/ˈrɛkləs/

 

adjective

1. heedless of danger or the consequences of one's actions; rash or impetuous.

   "you mustn't be so reckless"

Check yourself before you wreck yourself.

[SharkSwimmer 4,960]

Good thing Anthony Lynn likes Tyrod Taylor so well.  Herbert will have plenty of time to get used to the NFL behind Taylor.

[devaster 4,406]

2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Check yourself before you reck yourself.

ftfy

Edited July 7, 2020 by devaster

[predator_05 3,374]

Hard knocks was an eye opener. This might be the most unQB-like thing ever said by a QB:

 

"My job is to get you the ball. I'm your assistant."

 

i can see why those scouts flagged this kid's personality. Can't remember the last QB that was like this...maybe joe flacco?

[devaster 4,406]

2 hours ago, predator_05 said:

Hard knocks was an eye opener. This might be the most unQB-like thing ever said by a QB:

 

"My job is to get you the ball. I'm your assistant."

 

i can see why those scouts flagged this kid's personality. Can't remember the last QB that was like this...maybe joe flacco?

He was coached in a run-heavy scheme and asked to do very little in college.

[sjm76 769]

Not a bad showing at all for Herbert in his NFL debut.  He looks like he'll be pretty good.