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Justin Herbert 2020 Outlook


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Herbert will be the rookie of the year now that Burrow is hurt. He deserves it. I wouldn’t crown him just yet, but I’d be very excited if I were a Chargers fan. Their record is poor because the team is weak and the coach is usually responsible for at least won loss each season.

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Yeah I am pretty concerned too. Herbert has only faced 1 tough defense so far and that was Tampa's. Kid was totally destroyed by them... 190 passing yards, 0 td 2 int... Wait. What's that? T

James Robinson says hold my beer

6 hours ago, PisEdiRin said:

His 2 Wins came against the Jets and Jags, literally the 2 worst teams in the entire NFL. And you guys are crowning the 2-7 QB like he's established or something. 


You sweating because Herbert in his rookie season is keeping up with Allen in his 3rd??? Never mind demolishing what Allen did in his rookie season.. Herbert has already surpassed thrown tds in 9 games (21), then Allen did in his sophomore season playing all 16 games (20).  Someone is awful jelly of the Herbinator and his talent.

Facts:

Allen fan points: 242 

Herb fan points: 218

Allen passing: 2871

Herb passing: 2699

Allen td: 21

Herb td: 22

Allen rush: 279  Allen rush td: 5

Herb: 187  Herb rush td: 3

 

All this and Allen playing an extra game on hand.  Forget records, coaching, injuries.  Herbert has looked as polished as they come entering his rookie season.  Grab a towel from them sweats.


 

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2 hours ago, Tghetty said:


You sweating because Herbert in his rookie season is keeping up with Allen in his 3rd??? Never mind demolishing what Allen did in his rookie season.. Herbert has already surpassed thrown tds in 9 games (21), then Allen did in his sophomore season playing all 16 games (20).  Someone is awful jelly of the Herbinator and his talent.

Facts:

Allen fan points: 242 

Herb fan points: 218

Allen passing: 2871

Herb passing: 2699

Allen td: 21

Herb td: 22

Allen rush: 279  Allen rush td: 5

Herb: 187  Herb rush td: 3

 

All this and Allen playing an extra game on hand.  Forget records, coaching, injuries.  Herbert has looked as polished as they come entering his rookie season.  Grab a towel from them sweats.


 


Allen and Herbert are a really nice pair if you have both. 
 

Allen plays Pitt in week 14. Herbert plays ATL in week 14.

 

Allen plays at NE in week 16. Herbert plays Denver in week 16.

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15 hours ago, PisEdiRin said:

His 2 Wins came against the Jets and Jags, literally the 2 worst teams in the entire NFL. And you guys are crowning the 2-7 QB like he's established or something. 

 

You are determined to die on this hill I see.

I guarantee you that 99.9% of the people in the NFL who are paid a lot of money to scout NFL talent disagree with your stance here.

Why you are so determined to put a premature stake in the ground on this guy is baffling. So many other arguments to be won. Not this one.

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1 minute ago, yanksman said:

But the guy cant throw. I can see an LJax dropoff with him

That's an exaggeration. He's middle of the pack and he's only 23, he has lots of room for growth. Besides, even if you don't value him, its not about that, its about how others value him when we're talking rankings. Because the only time that stuff generally matters is at the trade table.

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On 11/24/2020 at 10:11 AM, kyoun1e said:

 

You are determined to die on this hill I see.

I guarantee you that 99.9% of the people in the NFL who are paid a lot of money to scout NFL talent disagree with your stance here.

Why you are so determined to put a premature stake in the ground on this guy is baffling. So many other arguments to be won. Not this one.

 

He has to PROVE it first. Herbert has yet to beat a Top 30 NFL team.

 

He's beaten the #31 and #32 teams in a 32 team league.

 

Can Herbert beat a Top 30 NFL team first before we crown him?

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21 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

He has to PROVE it first. Herbert has yet to beat a Top 30 NFL team.

 

He's beaten the #31 and #32 teams in a 32 team league.

 

Can Herbert beat a Top 30 NFL team first before we crown him?

 

You can 👑 Herbo already. 

Kid’s a stud. Very foolish take 

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24 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

He has to PROVE it first. Herbert has yet to beat a Top 30 NFL team.

 

He's beaten the #31 and #32 teams in a 32 team league.

 

Can Herbert beat a Top 30 NFL team first before we crown him?

crown him for what?  A Stud fantasy QB?  Do you play in some crappy league where loses matter?

his numbers as a rookie QB have been close to unmatched in the history of the game.  RG3 is the only one who has even come close

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What do we think about the matchup?
I fully believe in Herbert, but on the other side, @Buffalo is a hard take in my opinion. This defense is better than it seems.

I am really thinking about playing Herbert but also picking up the Bills DEF.

My projection is that it will be his worst/second worst performance of the year this week unfortunately.

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11 hours ago, Cam4Future said:

What do we think about the matchup?
I fully believe in Herbert, but on the other side, @Buffalo is a hard take in my opinion. This defense is better than it seems.

I am really thinking about playing Herbert but also picking up the Bills DEF.

My projection is that it will be his worst/second worst performance of the year this week unfortunately.

 

I’d never start a Defense against my own QB.

With that being said, Herbert has been balling why worry now.

He’s more than solidified an every week starter role. Ranked #9th overall in my league.

Not one dud game on the season, even his week 3 performance was decent.

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2 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I have the same decision to make and right now I'm leaning Herbert as well.


Don’t overthink this one. This should be an easy call this week and the answer is Herbert

On paper Herbert and Rodgers have been highly comparable in that both have been very good, roughly to the same extent. Same thing rings true for their teams’ overall respective offenses in terms of scoring prowess, as both the Chargers and the Packers are roughly equally capable in terms of rheir abilities to fill up the scoreboard. So with those things being a wash for all reasonable intents and purposes, all that leaves in terms of discerning between Herbert & Rodgers this week are the factors of matchup and weather circumstances.

Weather conditions for each QB (Herbert @ Buffalo, Rogers at home in Green Bay) too project to be a total wash. Judging from current hourly forecast projecting out to game times (noon est in Buffalo and 7:20 pm in Green Bay) neither spot calls for any real weather concerns and thus shouldn’t be a factor towards the outlook for either game: Buffalo clear skies, 47 to 48 degrees, 13 to 17 mph winds; and Green Bay also with clear skies with about the same mild winds conditions (13 to 14 mph) and about 10 degrees cooler with temps between 33 and 37. So all in all a wash in weather conditions.

So with everything up to this point being equal, all that remains to possibly discern between the two this week are matchups...and that’s where Herbert has a decided advantage. 2 subset factors are involved when it comes to matchups; one those of factors being the offense & defense as to the opposing team facing up against Herbert (the Buffalo Bills ) and the offensive & defensive units as to the team opposing Rodgers (the Chicago Bears), and the other being the defensive units of Herbert and Rodgers own respective teams. 

Beginning with the latter (the defensive units of the Chargers and Packers), that part is again kind of a wash. Neither the Chargers nor the Packers are very good on the defensive side of the football. The Packers balance is tilted more towards the running game as the primary culprit towards their defensive flaws, certainly more so than the Pack secondary, which is actually pretty good. Whereas the Chargers are more balanced in their defensive ineptitude’s. Their run defensive isn’t as bad as the Packers, although still appreciably below average in its own right, and their secondary right now, while not necessarily one of the worst in the league, markedly worse than the Pack, and unlike to Pack, worse than average. All things considered, neither defense is very imposing. 


And now onto the thing that separates the two: the one discernible factor that provides a clear and decided advantage for Herbert this week: the opposition.
 

Herbet’s opposition — the Buffalo Bills:

the Bills offense is one of the top scoring units in the league. They can really score the football and they can strike fast; and considering the Chargers rather mediocre defense, it creates an environment that would be supportive towards Herbert having to throw the football and put up points throughout to keep up. And on the other side of the football, the Bills defense has been surprisingly pretty bad this season. But surprising or not, that Buffalo defense has in fact been bad. They’ve been involved in several high scoring affairs; shootouts if you will. And all the elements supportive to a shootout this week between the Bill and the Chargers this week, they are a present and they are inarguably so. 

Rodgers opposition — the Chicago Bears

the Bears offense is a disgrace. It’s not good, it’s not average, it’s not below average, it’s not bad: it is an abject disgrace. Bottom three in the league across the board. Can’t run, can’t run block, can’t pass, can’t pass protect....can’t score. This is the second worst offense in NFL; and the gap between the Bears offense as the second worst in the league and the team that sits all alone as the worst (that team being be the NY Jets), it ain’t that large of a gap. The patheticness of the Bears offense seriously lowers the prospects of Rodgers need to sling the football around chasing points. I mean the Bears offense is so bad that it lowers these prospects to the degree where it’s practically assured there will be no need for A-Rod to have to put up more than 25 pass attempts all game. And then further working to the detriment to Rodgers scoring ceiling this week is that of those projected limited number of foreseeable pass attempts for Rogers this week, well, the prospects of these limited number attempts as to being efficient / effective/ big hitting scoring plays...that outlook ain’t too good either. Because quite frankly the Bears defense is very good. It’s good in real life football, but it’s probably been even better in the world of fantasy as it relates to preventing big scoring days from opposing fantasy offenses, and especially so to opposing QB’s. Part of that goes hand in hand with the Bears distinct offensive woes; but the net result between that and the Bears sound defensive front, is that the Bears have allowed the fewest amount of TD’s through the air in the league this season (I think. Might be tied with the Rams). Big passing days in both the TD and the yardage departments to opposing fantasy QB’s simply do not occur. I’m not saying it’s impossible and that it won’t happen at some point. What I am saying is, that if ever does, at least through 11 weeks of the 2020 season, it has not once yet. And all things considered, if it were to ever happen this season, it doesn’t appear at all likely that this would be the week.


TLDR — Between the binary choice of starting Justin Herbert or Aaron Rodgers at QB this 12th week of the 2020 fantasy football season, if your objective is to start the quarterback as to whom will score more fantasy football points, then the choice should be pretty clear: Justin Herbert is your guy.

Edited by Chest-Rockwell
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On 11/24/2020 at 1:35 AM, Tghetty said:


You sweating because Herbert in his rookie season is keeping up with Allen in his 3rd??? Never mind demolishing what Allen did in his rookie season.. Herbert has already surpassed thrown tds in 9 games (21), then Allen did in his sophomore season playing all 16 games (20).  Someone is awful jelly of the Herbinator and his talent.

Facts:

Allen fan points: 242 

Herb fan points: 218

Allen passing: 2871

Herb passing: 2699

Allen td: 21

Herb td: 22

Allen rush: 279  Allen rush td: 5

Herb: 187  Herb rush td: 3

 

All this and Allen playing an extra game on hand.  Forget records, coaching, injuries.  Herbert has looked as polished as they come entering his rookie season.  Grab a towel from them sweats.


 

 

 

8-3 vs 2-8

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10 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

 

8-3 vs 2-8

You realize it’s a team sport. There are 10 other players on offense. 11 others on Defense. Win and loss records don’t fall on one player. 

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