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Justin Herbert 2020 Outlook


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Full confidence in Herbert going up against a Raiders team that has given up 35, 43, 28 (Jets), and 44 points the last 4 weeks. 

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Yeah I am pretty concerned too. Herbert has only faced 1 tough defense so far and that was Tampa's. Kid was totally destroyed by them... 190 passing yards, 0 td 2 int... Wait. What's that? T

James Robinson says hold my beer

2 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

Got to love the Chargers dialing up shaky 5-yards-behind-the-line-of-scrimmage screen passes all day and then only start to attack down field (successfully) when we need OT. 
 

Way to botch not just a TD but the field goal too end the first half. So frustrating 


A weekly occurrence. 

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13 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

It feels like ever since Ekeler has been back the short passing game is the main focus. 
 

The also keep running on 4th and Goal from the 8 yard line and turn the ball over on downs. They used to be much more aggressive. 

They should seriously let Herbert ball it out. Not only is it fun to watch, the Chargers actually keep it pretty competitive for the opposing team. This whole dink and dunk style is atrocious...

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13 hours ago, Andy Mick said:

Full confidence in Herbert going up against a Raiders team that has given up 35, 43, 28 (Jets), and 44 points the last 4 weeks. 

 

Not confident anymore.

LV is brutal on the ground so Lynn could again play it safe on throws and focus too much on the run game.

Herbert's now in a 3 game rut. It is no doubt a trend now.

I'm sure Herbert has a floor of 15 ish, but it seems like the bombs away offense is gone so the ceiling is limited. Need ceiling in the semis.

Considering other options in the semis, but there's not a ton out there.

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11 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Not confident anymore.

LV is brutal on the ground so Lynn could again play it safe on throws and focus too much on the run game.

Herbert's now in a 3 game rut. It is no doubt a trend now.

I'm sure Herbert has a floor of 15 ish, but it seems like the bombs away offense is gone so the ceiling is limited. Need ceiling in the semis.

Considering other options in the semis, but there's not a ton out there.

 

If Herbert has a game similar to what Rivers just had, I'd be pleased. No the ceiling may not be through the roof, but few people have that kind of ceiling.

As long as Herbert gets a couple TDs and doesn't turn the ball over, he should have a solid day.

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1 minute ago, rasrar said:

 

If Herbert has a game similar to what Rivers just had, I'd be pleased. No the ceiling may not be through the roof, but few people have that kind of ceiling.

As long as Herbert gets a couple TDs and doesn't turn the ball over, he should have a solid day.

yup ~250 yards 3tds and i'll be happy

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3 hours ago, jpark211 said:

They should seriously let Herbert ball it out. Not only is it fun to watch, the Chargers actually keep it pretty competitive for the opposing team. This whole dink and dunk style is atrocious...


Agreed. The short passing game + bizarre playing calling inside the 10 has hurt all of the Chargers fantasy value. 

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Not feeling that good.  lots of his weapons are banged up too.  Keenan, MWilliams, HHenry all listed with concerns this week. Any solid updates we know about??  
 

No better options on the wire.  Let’s roll.  
Praise up 🙌

Edited by Cleanface
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8 minutes ago, Cleanface said:

Not feeling that good.  lots of his weapons are banged up too.  Keenan, MWilliams, HHenry all listed with concerns this week. Any solid updates we know about??  
 

No better options on the wire.  Let’s roll.  
Praise up 🙌

Apparently Raiders will be missing a handful of guys from their Defense.

 

Part of me thinks this game has sneaky high scoring upside.

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Had tinkered with the idea of sitting him for other options this week, but with all these LV defensive injuries forget it I'm starting him.

He also knows this D and lit them up pretty good earlier in the year.

Now looking back at the games he faced against BUF and NE it's clear to see that the BUF D has gotten significantly better and NE and Bill B. usually do their thing against rookies.

Weather a non issue. LV just fired their D coordinator.

Not getting cute in the semis.

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1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

Had tinkered with the idea of sitting him for other options this week, but with all these LV defensive injuries forget it I'm starting him.

He also knows this D and lit them up pretty good earlier in the year.

Now looking back at the games he faced against BUF and NE it's clear to see that the BUF D has gotten significantly better and NE and Bill B. usually do their thing against rookies.

Weather a non issue. LV just fired their D coordinator.

Not getting cute in the semis.


He has played 5 games with Ekeler and only has 6 TDs. In his 7 games without Ekeler he had 3 or more TDs in 6 of them (22 Total). The only game he didn’t was the Raiders but he did put up yards and play great. But to me the problem is Ekeler. Look at the targets he gets it’s all dink and dunk to Ekeler and Allen. 

Vegas has a nice point total and the Chargers are the dogs which is good for him. Based on the prop bets seems that Vegas is projecting him for 285 and 2 TDs 1 INT which is pretty solid. But I don’t trust him with Ekeler back and the coaching staff right now. 

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1 hour ago, alleyce said:


He has played 5 games with Ekeler and only has 6 TDs. In his 7 games without Ekeler he had 3 or more TDs in 6 of them (22 Total). The only game he didn’t was the Raiders but he did put up yards and play great. But to me the problem is Ekeler. Look at the targets he gets it’s all dink and dunk to Ekeler and Allen. 

Vegas has a nice point total and the Chargers are the dogs which is good for him. Based on the prop bets seems that Vegas is projecting him for 285 and 2 TDs 1 INT which is pretty solid. But I don’t trust him with Ekeler back and the coaching staff right now. 

This is where I’m at.  Deciding between Herbert and Hurts.  The other factor is that both of LAC’s tackles are out.  LV doesn’t typically pressure the qb well, but with no tackles I’m afraid the short passing game will be even more relied upon...

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14 hours ago, Loadedbrewer said:

This is where I’m at.  Deciding between Herbert and Hurts.  The other factor is that both of LAC’s tackles are out.  LV doesn’t typically pressure the qb well, but with no tackles I’m afraid the short passing game will be even more relied upon...

 

Per my post above was in set it and forget it mode, but now I'm reading that both K. Allen and M. Williams are both GTDs.

Guyton and T. Johnson I'm sure are decent fill ins, but this is a tad concerning. 

[...]

Edited by tonycpsu
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Mike Williams is out and Keenan is supposed to be “limited” even if he does play. Thursday night on the road for a rookie with an awful coaching staff.

 

I think Herbert is going to be great, but this isn’t adding up for a positive outcome.

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Lots of factors making me uneasy and ready to pivot.

Mostly, it is this useless head coach that is killing the kids upside, coupled with the return of Ekeler:

1 TD/1.25 INT per game with Ekeler (5 games)

2.85 TD/0.59 INT per game w/out Ekeler (7 games)

Now Big Mike Williams looks out and Allen is quite the question mark--and prob no better than 50/50 to even get thru the game. Bulaga is out. Henry playing but nicked up.

Big yeesh feelings...at least Raiders are missing 4 legit decent defensive starters. But still think I gotta bail?

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Just now, ST. STEVEN said:

Lots of factors making me uneasy and ready to pivot.

Mostly, it is this useless head coach that is killing the kids upside, coupled with the return of Ekeler:

1 TD/1.25 INT per game with Ekeler (5 games)

2.85 TD/0.59 INT per game w/out Ekeler (7 games)

Now Big Mike Williams looks out and Allen is quite the question mark--and prob no better than 50/50 to even get thru the game. Bulaga is out. Henry playing but nicked up.

Big yeesh feelings...at least Raiders are missing 4 legit decent defensive starters. But still think I gotta bail?

I’d rather see him have a good game on my bench, then poop the bed in my semi-final starting lineup. 

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FUUUUUUUU, this news really kneecaps his upside. I feel if you have a Brady, Rivers, Hurts or someone similar, might be time to pivot. I am only really still considering him just because I want a reason to watch the game tonight, but I cant risk that in the playoffs. 

Edited by noles1983
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6 minutes ago, noles1983 said:

FUUUUUUUU, this news really kneecaps his upside. I feel if you have a Brady, Rivers, Hurts or someone similar, might be time to pivot. I am only really still considering him just because I want a reason to watch the game tonight, but I cant risk that in the playoffs. 

I’m in the same boat, will probably pivot to Hurts. Too much risk in my opinion, I just don’t trust their coaching staff at all at this point. They are so so bad 

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Think how you're projected against your opponent matters here too.

If you're projected to win, it's probably ok to roll with Herbert. Would think his floor is pretty solid at 15 ish points.

It's the ceiling I'm concerned about if I was projected to lose. If I was a serious underdog I'd probably be rolling the dice with other options (like Hurts).

This may come down to if K. Allen and M. Williams are active or not.

If yes, stay the course. If no, punt.

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Ugh.

 

  • ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Chargers are "concerned" it won't have Keenan Allen (hamstring) available for Week 15 against the Raiders.

    Schefter adds that Allen is likely to be limited even if he is cleared to play. With Mike Williams (back) also expected to sit, both Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton will be thrust into Los Angeles' starting lineup outside of Hunter Henry. Johnson, who most recently recorded 6/55/1 off the bench for Williams in Sunday's win over the Falcons, suddenly becomes an intriguing WR2/3 play in season-long playoffs since the Raiders will be without 4-5 key starters on defense. Allen is a worrisome option who likely isn't worth risking in a must-win fantasy matchup.

    Dec 17, 2020, 11:20 AM ET
     
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