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A.J. Dillon 2020 Outlook


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Jonas Gray had a good game too.  We need to temper expectations until we've seen a fair bit more of him.  Hopefully we can get a better idea with how they decide to use him in the playoffs.  Obviously if Jones does go we'll have to decide on whether to take a risk on a good situation.  I'm not the biggest fan of that unless it's a Barkley or Zeke like talent though 

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Bro- have you seen his legs? 

well, neither did Lacey ...  

TERRIBLE draft pick. And it's not a knock on Dillon. Rodgers is an all-timer, you only have so many prime years left of him. 2nd round picks are very valuable, and the team had plenty of needs. 

59 minutes ago, kdko said:

Jonas Gray had a good game too.  We need to temper expectations until we've seen a fair bit more of him.  Hopefully we can get a better idea with how they decide to use him in the playoffs.  Obviously if Jones does go we'll have to decide on whether to take a risk on a good situation.  I'm not the biggest fan of that unless it's a Barkley or Zeke like talent though 

 

Huh? I don't see many people going overboard on Dillon. Saying that Jonas Gray had one good game so we need to temper expectations is just bizarre. Jonas Gray was an undrafted free agent with pathetic college production and a horrible athletic profile--he was lucky to ever get a shot in the NFL. AJ Dillon was drafted in the 2nd round, set every rushing record at BC and has a unicorn level athletic profile. He will be given many more opportunities to produce/succeed than someone like Jonas Gray. So, sure, expectations should be tempered but the upside is real.

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2 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Huh? I don't see many people going overboard on Dillon. Saying that Jonas Gray had one good game so we need to temper expectations is just bizarre. Jonas Gray was an undrafted free agent with pathetic college production and a horrible athletic profile--he was lucky to ever get a shot in the NFL. AJ Dillon was drafted in the 2nd round, set every rushing record at BC and has a unicorn level athletic profile. He will be given many more opportunities to produce/succeed than someone like Jonas Gray. So, sure, expectations should be tempered but the upside is real.


sounds like ya came around on the talent of AJ a little bit. 

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9 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


sounds like ya came around on the talent of AJ a little bit. 

 

A bit, but more so the contextual factors that he has going for him and how that is totally different from someone like Jonas Gray. Dillon is still a limited runner who will never be a good pass catcher and could easily end up having a Jordan Howard level career trajectory--which included an RB1 season but the value didn't last long. 

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36 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

A bit, but more so the contextual factors that he has going for him and how that is totally different from someone like Jonas Gray. Dillon is still a limited runner who will never be a good pass catcher and could easily end up having a Jordan Howard level career trajectory--which included an RB1 season but the value didn't last long. 

I don't know where the narrative is that AJ Dillon can't catch passes.  Yes, he only had 21 catches in 3 seasons at BC, but that was mainly due to the scheme.  It's just what the team did, not for lack of talent on his part.

Found this Twitter from the preseason.  The reports I remember was that he could catch.   Edit: Sorry, I don't know how to cut and paste Twitters, can never figure it out.  Somebody smarter than me can find it and post if they want.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tim Boyle hits AJ Dillon down the middle of the field for a big gain. Dillon’s hands have been impressive so far after not being asked to catch passes much at Boston College.</p>&mdash; Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) <a href="https://twitter.com/mattschneidman/status/1296483636343169029?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CooL said:

I don't know where the narrative is that AJ Dillon can't catch passes.  Yes, he only had 21 catches in 3 seasons at BC, but that was mainly due to the scheme.  It's just what the team did, not for lack of talent on his part.

Found this Twitter from the preseason.  The reports I remember was that he could catch.   Edit: Sorry, I don't know how to cut and paste Twitters, can never figure it out.  Somebody smarter than me can find it and post if they want.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tim Boyle hits AJ Dillon down the middle of the field for a big gain. Dillon’s hands have been impressive so far after not being asked to catch passes much at Boston College.</p>&mdash; Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) <a href="https://twitter.com/mattschneidman/status/1296483636343169029?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

 

Point me to a 240+ pound bruiser that has ever been a good enough pass catcher to earn a significant pass catching role in the NFL. I'll wait.

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47 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Point me to a 240+ pound bruiser that has ever been a good enough pass catcher to earn a significant pass catching role in the NFL. I'll wait.

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1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Point me to a 240+ pound bruiser that has ever been a good enough pass catcher to earn a significant pass catching role in the NFL. I'll wait.

Steven Jackson played at 240 and he was a bruiser and he was a solid pass catcher. That 2006 season helped me win a couple of G’s that year!

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9 minutes ago, Cdub2k said:

Steven Jackson played at 240 and he was a bruiser and he was a solid pass catcher. That 2006 season helped me win a couple of G’s that year!

 

Yep I thought of him after I posted that. He has a lot of similarities to Dillon profile wise so I hope that Dillon develops into a Jackson-esque pass catcher but I wouldn't bet on it.

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2 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

Steven Jackson played at 240 and he was a bruiser and he was a solid pass catcher. That 2006 season helped me win a couple of G’s that year!

Yup.  And interestingly, his Player Profiler comp is indeed Steven Jackson.  So...first round material in maybe two years?  We can hope.

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13 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Point me to a 240+ pound bruiser that has ever been a good enough pass catcher to earn a significant pass catching role in the NFL. I'll wait.


Significant role can vary. Back in the day 30 catches from an RB was awesome now ya need 50 to seem good. But for a grinder like Dillon I think most ppl would be tickled to death with 30-40 more catches added onto his totals. So to list a few 240+ guys that have done that.    
 

Before Mike McCarthy started to hate Eddie lacy for being fat he had a 35 and 40 reception season. 

Craig Hayward has a couple 30+ reception seasons 

Jamal Lewis has a couple 30+ and a 40 reception seasons

Eddie George (his weights differ some say 235 some say 240 but close enough right?) had a 5 year stretch with over 30 catches a season.

Mike alstott has a 65 reception rookie season and a couple 30s 

 

Alstott might be the best example to prove our point. He can clearly catch the ball. Was a great athlete but after his rookie year he wasn’t asked to catch the ball as much. Same could be said for the AJ Dillons and Derrick Henry’s of the world. Rumor was Johnathon Taylor couldn’t catch either due to low college reception totals (42 catches in 3 years of college) and now he’s got 36 receptions in his rookie year with no drops and Alvin kamara has 6 drops. 

 

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I think he's going to be a 1st and 2nd down banger.  He may have limited usage in the passing game (dump offs and screens) but I don't see him replacing Jones in the passing game.  He's got absolutely no experience running routes and Jones lined up all over the field because of his route running ability.  

People forget that Green Bay has seen stretches over the last 2 years without DA17 where Jones was their most productive pass catcher.  IMO they will have a RB on the field in passing situations that they can line up anywhere to create mismatches.  Chances are good that Williams is kept and he gets an increased roll in Green Bay's passing game. He's a very good receiver and elite in protection.

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