Raheem Mostert 2020 Outlook

[joshua18 7,029]

7 hours ago, owenmills said:

Makes sense. It's got to be more than just being run heavy. They must be intentionally slowing the tempo of the game down. Probably even moreso when they get a lead.

Anyways, I like Mostert but this offense seems like it will help him and hold him back simultaneously. 

The slower the pace of the game, the more the defense gets to rest. This is why most defense-oriented coaches favor the run to “shorten the game” — unless they have a truly great QB (like Belichick for the past 20 years). As old as football itself. 

[owenmills 5,327]

5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

The slower the pace of the game, the more the defense gets to rest. This is why most defense-oriented coaches favor the run to “shorten the game” — unless they have a truly great QB (like Belichick for the past 20 years). As old as football itself. 

I found the numbers interesting because the Shanahans are always touted in fantasy circles as being extremely fantasy-friendly offenses. Whatever effectiveness/efficiency gains are coming from the Shanahan offense scheme are being offset by the loss of volume with their slow tempo. 

Of course we're in the age of RBBC so maybe I'm thinking about it more than I should. When I started playing fantasy football practically every team had a RB getting 20 carries a game and some even sat on the wire. Now people are tripping over adding any turd even sniffing 20 touches

Edited August 28, 2020 by owenmills

[SpartanEric 727]

6 minutes ago, owenmills said:

I found the numbers interesting because the Shanahans are always touted in fantasy circles as being extremely fantasy-friendly offenses. 

 

The defense had a big influence on that. His offenses were more fantasy friendly because the defenses in ATL were never anything like that one in SF, IMO.  

[SyNdicateZ 1,466]

With McKinnon back and likely being the pass catching/3rd down back I think this hurts Mostert and is a bust candidate. 

[yossarian 3,524]

16 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I read that the starting fb Kyle Juszczyk, who is arguably the best fb in the league, may miss some games which isn't good for the 49ers rb's.

this is under reported and very important. Kittle is also out (short-term) with a bad hammy. Wtf is going on in SF? 

[sjm76 769]

50 minutes ago, yossarian said:

this is under reported and very important. Kittle is also out (short-term) with a bad hammy. Wtf is going on in SF? 

Something in the water out there.  Juszczyk, Kittle, Deebo Samuel and the rookie Brandon Aiyuk all have ailments that could keep them out week 1.

[RunCMC 2,526]

Kyle Juszczyk is huge for their run game, this is very concerning development. 

[herschel 1,994]

so where are we on mostert?  boom or bust?  have seen him go as early as 4th in 12 team drafts which seems a bit pricey....

[Ryansm11 2,132]

12 minutes ago, herschel said:

so where are we on mostert?  boom or bust?  have seen him go as early as 4th in 12 team drafts which seems a bit pricey....

I’m probably the highest on him. I would put a Vegas bet on him leading the league in rushing thisbyear. 

[ST. STEVEN 4,350]

24 minutes ago, herschel said:

so where are we on mostert?  boom or bust?  have seen him go as early as 4th in 12 team drafts which seems a bit pricey....

Early 4th is pretty high, but he def has enough upside to pull a profit in that area. I grabbed him at 5-2 in a 14 team PPR Fri night as my RB3 and felt good about it. He went 5-7 in a high stakes BB I did last night.

[jbarretta 29]

20 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I’m probably the highest on him. I would put a Vegas bet on him leading the league in rushing thisbyear. 

 

Top 5 in rushing yards for sure   taking him at 2/3 turn.   High stakes $8k per team.

To me it looks likes Terrell Davis when they sweep or pitch 

McKinnon and Coleman lol.  TRUST YOUR EYES 

[SpartanEric 727]

28 minutes ago, jbarretta said:

 

Top 5 in rushing yards for sure   taking him at 2/3 turn.   High stakes $8k per team.

To me it looks likes Terrell Davis when they sweep or pitch 

McKinnon and Coleman lol.  TRUST YOUR EYES 

 

Agreed.  I have drafted one team and got him with my 4th round pick (I did a couple mock drafts where I tried waiting to the 5th round/5th pick and he got snagged before it got to me so I was not going to take that chance).  

If this is your RB2 you are in excellent shape.  Like someone else said, looks like he has rocket boosters on his feet.  

[Gohawks 10,164]

33 minutes ago, jbarretta said:

 

Top 5 in rushing yards for sure   taking him at 2/3 turn.   High stakes $8k per team.

To me it looks likes Terrell Davis when they sweep or pitch 

McKinnon and Coleman lol.  TRUST YOUR EYES 

8k per team?

Damn. I already want to bang my head against the wall not doing that high stakes. If I did 8k per team I’d probably go bungee jumping without the cord before the season ended. 

[kyoun1e 1,050]

Consistently landing him as my #3 RB in 12 team PPR mocks in round 5. 

The idiots at ESPN actually have him ranked at #70 so he's actually slipped into the 6th round in mocks. Hope it stays this way by draft day.

I've got to think Shanahan knows by now what he has in Mostert. He'll still be annoying with some kind of committee, but I've got to think Mostert gets the lion's share.

[SpartanEric 727]

1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

Consistently landing him as my #3 RB in 12 team PPR mocks in round 5. 

The idiots at ESPN actually have him ranked at #70 so he's actually slipped into the 6th round in mocks. Hope it stays this way by draft day.

I've got to think Shanahan knows by now what he has in Mostert. He'll still be annoying with some kind of committee, but I've got to think Mostert gets the lion's share.

 

That's a terrible job by ESPN, but I would not count on that happening in real life.  If you don't take him in the 4th round (12 team) then someone else will likely grab him before it gets back to you.  It happened to me on a few occasions.  

And I think after looking back on things, 4th round will feel like SOD territory.  

 

[young dude 534]

In my $250 league at pick 5.4 I was debating between him and Swift as my RB2 after taking 3 receivers. Agonized for a couple of hours (slow draft) but took Mostert. IMO ideally you have Mostert as your RB3 or flex, but the upside is definitely there.

Edit: 12 team ppr

Edited August 31, 2020 by young dude

[EWV1 44]

1 hour ago, young dude said:

In my $250 league at pick 5.4 I was debating between him and Swift as my RB2 after taking 3 receivers. Agonized for a couple of hours (slow draft) but took Mostert. IMO ideally you have Mostert as your RB3 or flex, but the upside is definitely there.

Edit: 12 team ppr

Think you made the right call, at least in re-draft.

[WaiverLooter 931]

I had first pick in a 12 team half ppr so if I didn’t draft him as the last pick of the 4th or first of the 5th, I was not going to get him. That being said, I think his true value is a mid 5th rounder. At this point Bell is off the boards most likely and you’re left with Jonathan Taylor (uncertain what the pecking order is there), David Johnson (health permitting), Ingram, or Swift. Mostert seems like as reasonable of a pick as any.

[GriffeySwag 1,142]

Going to be some disappointed folks who take him in the 4th/5th.

 

He's not going to be a bellcow under Shanahan, and no amount of RW hype posts will make it happen. Going to be a committee. Better hope Mostert makes the most of his 12 carries a game.

[HeHateMe23 119]

29 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

Going to be some disappointed folks who take him in the 4th/5th.

 

He's not going to be a bellcow under Shanahan, and no amount of RW hype posts will make it happen. Going to be a committee. Better hope Mostert makes the most of his 12 carries a game.

He won the job last year with Coleman there.. is this thinking because of McKinnon?  

[Mustangt125 104]

I was just going to ask, how certain are we that he's the guy? They just gave him the new money he wanted and he was great at the end of last year, but maybe that's the nightmares I'm still having from the NFCC game.

 

He went for $21 in my first auction, so was hoping to get him for around $15-20.  Is that too much? Do people really think McKinnon, who hasn't really played in what seems like 5 years, is going to steal carries?

[mikeflavaz 679]

16 minutes ago, Mustangt125 said:

I was just going to ask, how certain are we that he's the guy? 

 

 

As certain as we can be.  He's running ahead of everyone with the 1st team in practice and "dominating" as one beat reporter stated as recent as a few days ago. That being said, anything is possible...  I'm a big believer in Mostert personally.  I think he has a beast year in 2020.  

[Ryansm11 2,132]

29 minutes ago, mikeflavaz said:

 

As certain as we can be.  He's running ahead of everyone with the 1st team in practice and "dominating" as one beat reporter stated as recent as a few days ago. That being said, anything is possible...  I'm a big believer in Mostert personally.  I think he has a beast year in 2020.  

Me too. Sometimes you just gotta bet on the talent even if the situation doesn’t look the best. 

[Mustangt125 104]

21 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Me too. Sometimes you just gotta bet on the talent even if the situation doesn’t look the best. 

 

Doesn't the situation look pretty damn good? If he's the #1, just extended RB on a run heavy team with a genius designing run plays, with a top level defense.  

[Fried Pork Grind 524]

37 minutes ago, Mustangt125 said:

 

Doesn't the situation look pretty damn good? If he's the #1, just extended RB on a run heavy team with a genius designing run plays, with a top level defense.  

I am not disagreeing but to put your comment into perspective they gave him a raise because he was being paid like a special teamer and being used as a high end RB. I don't think the raise in pay equates to more touches. 

With that said Shannahan is going to use the hot hand regardless. Countless times last year he started Coleman because Coleman is considered the thumper and can loosen up the D. Raheem came in and gashed them, if he can do it again then expect a big workload. I do think Breadia being gone helps Mostert get more carriers while McKinnon is eased back into game shape. As the season progresses I would expect McKinnon's role to increase if he is close to what he was. Dude is just a perfect fit in this offense and the Niners have invested a lot into him. 

Raheem might be the perfect player to ride to fantasy W's for the first half of the season and then sell high knowing that McKinnon will start to eat as well.