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Dynasty Debate: Kamara vs. CMC (WHIR 100%)


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So I have an offer on the table in my dynasty league and it involves my Kamara and his CMC. This is the part where you usually get into price/round you have them at, their contract, roster, league scoring etc. While that is all super important with these questions, I know we (at least I am) are afforded some extra time right now and my real question is how far apart do you view these guys in dynasty? As far as ranking/and or just overall value. 
 

Career wise they have been very similar to this point. I won’t list all of the numbers but they are extremely similar outside of last season. It was annoying how they used Murray and Taysom Hill last season.. but I also don’t think last season was so much that Kamara underperformed as it was he got hurt, but it was definitely a down season. Mccaffery on the other end had an historic year and that’s going to be tough to even come close to again. 
 

I think most have Cmac pretty close to #1 overall in dynasty and Kamara top #10 (Rb wise like top 4). I am just starting to think the separation is a little more than that ranking would show. With Brees looking like his last year, Kamara coming up on FA and having a possible hold our scenario, or even leaving the Saints eventually. And CMAC getting the extension already and being locked in with Joe Brady, Teddy and co. just seems so secure and locked in and Kamara has a ton of risk coming.

 

I think 99.9% would agree Cmac is superior so I am not asking that. I guess my question is in dynasty.. where do you view their separation? How much more valuable is Cmac than Kamara? Would you have them in the same tier, seperate tiers? Do you think Cmac is locked into the top 5 for the next 3 years and Kamara has the ability to drop dramatically depending on contract/no Brees/other teams etc. 

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4 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

CMC all the way!! 


Yeah thanks but that’s not really what I was asking. I said Cmac is going to be the straight up pick.. that is pretty obvious. Maybe I wrote too much for this forum or this type of conversation isn’t for here.. but I was just examining what the separation is in these two over the next 5 years.  

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I would put CMC a tier ahead of Kamara, personally (in tier 1 with only Saquon).  When it comes to skill-set and their output thus far, I think they're pretty equal.  The only reason I knock Kamara down a tier is because of the unknown in future years.  How will Brees' eventual replacement affect his production? His contract status, as you've stated.  I think those are both important things to consider when placing players in rankings/tiers.  In a standard, non-dynasty league I'd place them in the same tier.  With dynasty, however, you have to consider those other things when considering someone's overall value.  

Now to answer your question, 'How much more valuable is CMC?', all I can say is I place him a tier ahead of Kamara, and I'd say Kamara's tier (tier 2) consists of Dalvin Cook and Zeke (add Henry and Chubb for non-PPR), if that means anything.  I couldn't really tell you that a 1-tier difference in players equals a #3 WR, or X draft pick...I think only you could figure that based on the make-up of your league. 

 

Hope this helps.

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Playing for five years down the road, particularly for RBs, seems darn near impossible to me.

For example, here's the top ten in dynasty ADP from 2016:

1 1.01 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG 1.4 0.7 1.01 1.03 94  
2 1.02 Antonio Brown WR PIT 2.2 0.9 1.01 1.04 194  
3 1.03 Julio Jones WR ATL 2.8 0.7 1.01 1.04 33  
4 1.04 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 3.9 1.2 1.01 1.07 144  
5 1.06 Allen Robinson WR JAX 5.5 1.2 1.02 1.08 60  
6 1.06 Todd Gurley RB LAR 5.5 1.8 1.01 1.11 268  
7 1.06 Amari Cooper WR OAK 6.0 1.3 1.04 1.09 74  
8 1.08 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 7.8 1.9 1.03 1.12 90  
9 1.09 Mike Evans WR TB 8.8 2.2 1.05 2.03 129  
10 1.10

Dez Bryant

 

WR DAL 9.7 2.4 1.03 2.03 77

Here's 2017:

1 1.02 David Johnson RB ARI 2.0 1.0 1.01 1.05 101  
2 1.02 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG 2.2 0.9 1.01 1.05 90  
3 1.03 Mike Evans WR TB 3.1 1.3 1.01 1.06 84  
4 1.04 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL 3.7 1.8 1.01 1.08 67  
5 1.04 LeVeon Bell RB PIT 4.0 1.3 1.01 1.08 95  
6 1.06 Antonio Brown WR PIT 6.4 1.4 1.01 1.09 93  
7 1.07 Amari Cooper WR OAK 7.1 2.1 1.02 2.03 59  
8 1.08 Julio Jones WR ATL 7.6 1.5 1.01 1.11 91  
9 1.10 Michael Thomas WR NO 9.8 1.7 1.07 2.02 76  
10 1.10 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 10.2 1.7 1.05 2.01 7

 

So my response would be, I guess, CMac is in his own tier for 2020.  For 2025?  Seems likely that guy is in college.  The separation between the two likely gets thinner as years go on if recent history of the league is any indication.

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3 hours ago, valdy34 said:

I would put CMC a tier ahead of Kamara, personally (in tier 1 with only Saquon).  When it comes to skill-set and their output thus far, I think they're pretty equal.  The only reason I knock Kamara down a tier is because of the unknown in future years.  How will Brees' eventual replacement affect his production? His contract status, as you've stated.  I think those are both important things to consider when placing players in rankings/tiers.  In a standard, non-dynasty league I'd place them in the same tier.  With dynasty, however, you have to consider those other things when considering someone's overall value.  

Now to answer your question, 'How much more valuable is CMC?', all I can say is I place him a tier ahead of Kamara, and I'd say Kamara's tier (tier 2) consists of Dalvin Cook and Zeke (add Henry and Chubb for non-PPR), if that means anything.  I couldn't really tell you that a 1-tier difference in players equals a #3 WR, or X draft pick...I think only you could figure that based on the make-up of your league. 

 

Hope this helps.

 

This was awesome man, really appreciate it! This is pretty on board with what my general thinking is as well. 

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2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Playing for five years down the road, particularly for RBs, seems darn near impossible to me.

For example, here's the top ten in dynasty ADP from 2016:

1 1.01 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG 1.4 0.7 1.01 1.03 94  
2 1.02 Antonio Brown WR PIT 2.2 0.9 1.01 1.04 194  
3 1.03 Julio Jones WR ATL 2.8 0.7 1.01 1.04 33  
4 1.04 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 3.9 1.2 1.01 1.07 144  
5 1.06 Allen Robinson WR JAX 5.5 1.2 1.02 1.08 60  
6 1.06 Todd Gurley RB LAR 5.5 1.8 1.01 1.11 268  
7 1.06 Amari Cooper WR OAK 6.0 1.3 1.04 1.09 74  
8 1.08 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 7.8 1.9 1.03 1.12 90  
9 1.09 Mike Evans WR TB 8.8 2.2 1.05 2.03 129  
10 1.10

Dez Bryant

 

WR DAL 9.7 2.4 1.03 2.03 77

Here's 2017:

1 1.02 David Johnson RB ARI 2.0 1.0 1.01 1.05 101  
2 1.02 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG 2.2 0.9 1.01 1.05 90  
3 1.03 Mike Evans WR TB 3.1 1.3 1.01 1.06 84  
4 1.04 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL 3.7 1.8 1.01 1.08 67  
5 1.04 LeVeon Bell RB PIT 4.0 1.3 1.01 1.08 95  
6 1.06 Antonio Brown WR PIT 6.4 1.4 1.01 1.09 93  
7 1.07 Amari Cooper WR OAK 7.1 2.1 1.02 2.03 59  
8 1.08 Julio Jones WR ATL 7.6 1.5 1.01 1.11 91  
9 1.10 Michael Thomas WR NO 9.8 1.7 1.07 2.02 76  
10 1.10 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 10.2 1.7 1.05 2.01 7

 

So my response would be, I guess, CMac is in his own tier for 2020.  For 2025?  Seems likely that guy is in college.  The separation between the two likely gets thinner as years go on if recent history of the league is any indication.

 

Yeah you're absolutely right, I really shouldn't have said generally threw out 5 years because that is not how I even look at dynasty RB's. I was just saying think more down the line then "CMAC all the way" and I threw out 5 years haha. But I generally like to think in 3 year windows with RB's. The last point you made about the separation between the two getting thinner was really what I was trying to think about.. I couldn't decide if because there is so much uncertainty with Karama's down year, contract, Brees status, etc. and CMAC getting a big deal and security with the things around him that he would be more likely to stay a top 10 overall piece, while Kamara might actually be on the Lev Bell, David Johnson type plummet. 

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I have CMC 2 tiers higher and think now is the time to sell Kamara.

T1

Barkley

CMC

T1.5

Zeke

T2

Dalvin

T3

Mixon

Jacobs

Chubb

Kamara

I think it is pretty much set that he walks because I can't see the Saints being dumb enough to pay an RB big money. Also, he struggled mightily without Brees (unlike Thomas). When an RB has an injury hobbled year, I have a hard time brushing it off like I can for WRs because their shelf life is so short (as pointed out above). Kamara is very talented but he gets helped a lot by Payton and Brees and hasn't really been a true workhorse (always had Ingram or Murray).

CMC has a considerably higher floor and ceiling to me

Help?

 

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