A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook

[mvttchew 596]

Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? 

[MingusDew 407]

15 minutes ago, mvttchew said:

Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? 

Personally I have:

Adams

Hopkins

Tyreek

Thomas

Jones

DK

Diggs

Ridley

In a tier above him. I think that AJ Brown and Scary Terry are right behind these guys.

In terms of redraft, not dynasty (where I’d have him ranked higher).  

 

Edited November 10, 2020 by MingusDew

[JacobThunder15 321]

11 minutes ago, mvttchew said:

Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? 

Top 7-8 for me. Adams, Thomas, Hopkins, Hill, Jones, DK, Allen, AJ and I think past the top 3 its all subjective to matchup 

[Vendetta 528]

6 minutes ago, mvttchew said:

Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? 

Without looking through the list, top 8 feels about right.

 

Now going through the list and qualitatively comparing them vs. AJB, though this admittedly does not factor in ROS schedule which should matter:

 

Comfortably Ahead (guys I'd instantly accept in a swap)

Adams (comfortably #1 overall WR)

DK

Hill

 

Slightly Ahead (guys I'd probably accept in a swap but would at least think about it first)

Hopkins (should probably be up 1 tier... probably biased from yesterday's game! TD's have been a bit low too)

Allen (crazy target volume and strong chemistry with Herb... could make the case for him being up 1 tier too)

 

Same Tier (guys I may or may not trade AJB for, depending on ROS schedule / personal preference)

MT (could move up 1-2 tiers - need to see how his target volume going forward shakes out)

Julio (could maybe be bumped up to the slightly-ahead tier, but I'm always worried about Julio's durability)

Diggs (having a great season but probably wouldn't trade AJB for him)

Lockett (not a fan of the inconsistency though)

Ridley (probably wouldn't trade AJB for him)

 

WR6-10 feels about right.

[Evincar 1,721]

20 minutes ago, mvttchew said:

Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? 

 

Only ones I would have for sure ahead of him: Adams, Hill, Diggs, Allen, Hopkins, DK, Ridley, Thomas, Lockett

[JacobThunder15 321]

4 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Only ones I would have for sure ahead of him: Adams, Hill, Diggs, Allen, Hopkins, DK, Ridley, Thomas, Lockett

Lockett I am a little hesitant on, otherwise I agree. Aj Brown does a lot with a little targets, Lockett does little if DK is getting the targets

[cheezor42 534]

I agree with the 6-9 range...he continues to have a tough schedule. If he had some cupcakes in there different story.  Next year he’s top 5 no hesitation for me.

[Ryansm11 2,155]

9 hours ago, cheezor42 said:

I agree with the 6-9 range...he continues to have a tough schedule. If he had some cupcakes in there different story.  Next year he’s top 5 no hesitation for me.

Tough schedule is good. Cupcakes = Henry time less AJB. 

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

This dude's projections are still the most disrespected out there. 16 PPG since he's returned yet constantly being projected at 11. And that included one dud outlier game at Cincy. 

[Everynameistaken 86]

5 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

This dude's projections are still the most disrespected out there. 16 PPG since he's returned yet constantly being projected at 11. And that included one dud outlier game at Cincy. 

I love the disrespect, the look on your opponents face when your team beat projection by a wide margin is soul crushing 

[JacobThunder15 321]

5 minutes ago, Everynameistaken said:

I love the disrespect, the look on your opponents face when your team beat projection by a wide margin is soul crushing 

I've had guys in trade talks not rate him over any other WR2 and then face them the following week only to see exactly what youre talking about. They see the low volume and TDs and think it cant keep up, but trust DK in that offense. Basically the same style of player, and I love owning AJ with his consistency 

[herschel 1,995]

36 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

This dude's projections are still the most disrespected out there. 16 PPG since he's returned yet constantly being projected at 11. And that included one dud outlier game at Cincy. 

CBS projecting him for 15.5 this week in PPR.  They’re learning...

[phillyfan461 133]

9 hours ago, herschel said:

CBS projecting him for 15.5 this week in PPR.  They’re learning...

Put some respect on this man's name

[ajs723 3,410]

Brown's season is really weird if you dive into his numbers a little. He's getting 8 targets per game which is way better than I would have expected. However, he's well outside of the top 50 qualified WRs in catch rate. That's shockingly low. He's also been scoring TDs at an unsustainable rate, and has made more than a few huge plays.

If that catch rate goes up, he could be a top 5 WR, but if it doesn't, and the TD production regresses, he could drop precipitously.

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

16 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Brown's season is really weird if you dive into his numbers a little. He's getting 8 targets per game which is way better than I would have expected. However, he's well outside of the top 50 qualified WRs in catch rate. That's shockingly low. He's also been scoring TDs at an unsustainable rate, and has made more than a few huge plays.

If that catch rate goes up, he could be a top 5 WR, but if it doesn't, and the TD production regresses, he could drop precipitously.

true catch rate is 87%, close to end of top 50...but how much better can this get? Only one drop- he’s probably not getting the best quality targets from Tanny.

td paces are sustainable until they aren’t, as well as big plays...that is his game and what his calling card is...big play size speed freak with a nose for the end zone. Way more consistent than last year. They just need to get this guy better quality targets and let him work vs traditional deep threat targets. But their play action game to me seems to be medium risk medium to high reward 

[cheezor42 534]

16 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Brown's season is really weird if you dive into his numbers a little. He's getting 8 targets per game which is way better than I would have expected. However, he's well outside of the top 50 qualified WRs in catch rate. That's shockingly low. He's also been scoring TDs at an unsustainable rate, and has made more than a few huge plays.

If that catch rate goes up, he could be a top 5 WR, but if it doesn't, and the TD production regresses, he could drop precipitously.

catch rate is a virtually meaningless statistic. DKs catch rate is lower for example.  as long as he’s getting 8+ targets per game, he’s going to feast far more often than not. Say his catch rate was 70% instead of 62%...that’s less than one more catch per game..hardly make or break. He gets high value targets and can take any play to the house.

[ajs723 3,410]

5 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:

catch rate is a virtually meaningless statistic. DKs catch rate is lower for example.  as long as he’s getting 8+ targets per game, he’s going to feast far more often than not. Say his catch rate was 70% instead of 62%...that’s less than one more catch per game..hardly make or break. He gets high value targets and can take any play to the house.

If looked at outside of context, of course it's meaningless. DK has an average depth of target of about 15 yards downfield (very high). AJ Brown, on the other hand, has an average depth of target under 9 yards (very low). 

There's no good reason Brown's catch rate should be so low. 

[cheezor42 534]

46 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

If looked at outside of context, of course it's meaningless. DK has an average depth of target of about 15 yards downfield (very high). AJ Brown, on the other hand, has an average depth of target under 9 yards (very low). 

There's no good reason Brown's catch rate should be so low. 

 

By low we're talking about a few percentage points here, if he catches one or two more balls overall he moves up that list exponentially which isn't much considering the small sample size.  His catch rate is virtually unchanged over his career so far, it hovers around 62-65%.  This season he's still proving he's a YAC God at WR, with only Kupp & McLauren having more YAC per catch out of receivers playing in 6 or more games this year, so again if we're getting beyond individual stats and looking at context his skillset is well suited towards taking those shorter catches to the house.  Part of the reason I think his catch rate isn't elite is that he's not an elite separator, he wins by out-muscling the DB at the catch and then being a nightmare to bring down in the open field.  I don't mean to discredit your point, I think it's interesting to bring up, but when I look at the full picture it doesn't worry me, especially given he's been battling an exposiveness-sapping injury for most of the year.

[ajs723 3,410]

5 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:

 

By low we're talking about a few percentage points here, if he catches one or two more balls overall he moves up that list exponentially which isn't much considering the small sample size.  His catch rate is virtually unchanged over his career so far, it hovers around 62-65%.  This season he's still proving he's a YAC God at WR, with only Kupp & McLauren having more YAC per catch out of receivers playing in 6 or more games this year, so again if we're getting beyond individual stats and looking at context his skillset is well suited towards taking those shorter catches to the house.  Part of the reason I think his catch rate isn't elite is that he's not an elite separator, he wins by out-muscling the DB at the catch and then being a nightmare to bring down in the open field.  I don't mean to discredit your point, I think it's interesting to bring up, but when I look at the full picture it doesn't worry me, especially given he's been battling an exposiveness-sapping injury for most of the year.

Right, I don't know if it worries me either. It actually could be a plus. He's producing this well with that low of a catch rate, you could argue it can only get better from here. 

[pierceNKC 493]

Wtf y’all?

[fbi314159 157]

Sour grapes, but if you're just going to try and force it to receivers try and force it to your best one.  Two targets sucks.

[yossarian 3,524]

1 minute ago, fbi314159 said:

Sour grapes, but if you're just going to try and force it to receivers try and force it to your best one.  Two targets sucks.

yup. he gets so few targets that something like that drop is 10x more painful than if he was a typical WR1 who gets 10ish targets a week. Also Indy is just a good defense. 

[Jrt80 228]

This is what I was fearing with him. At the end of the day he just doesn’t get enough targets to be a weekly WR1 in standard leagues. He’s fine in standard, but this offense just doesn’t throw it enough to give him a safe volume every game. I think we honestly got lucky this didn’t happen sooner (and it almost did 2 weeks ago).
 

If he makes that one catch it’s an entirely different convo, but it shouldn’t be. His productivity really does hinge on 1-2 plays a game, way more than other top WR’s do. And if we’re being honest he doesn’tExactly  have the softest hands. 
 

 

[ajs723 3,410]

14 minutes ago, pierceNKC said:

Wtf y’all?

This is a weekly possibility with Brown. He's still a stud, but he doesn't get a lot of volume, and he has a low catch rate. This is his weekly floor. 

[cheezor42 534]

**** happens