mvttchew 596 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MingusDew 407 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, mvttchew said: Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? Personally I have: Adams Hopkins Tyreek Thomas Jones DK Diggs Ridley In a tier above him. I think that AJ Brown and Scary Terry are right behind these guys. In terms of redraft, not dynasty (where I’d have him ranked higher). Edited November 10, 2020 by MingusDew Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JacobThunder15 321 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, mvttchew said: Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? Top 7-8 for me. Adams, Thomas, Hopkins, Hill, Jones, DK, Allen, AJ and I think past the top 3 its all subjective to matchup Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Vendetta 528 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, mvttchew said: Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? Without looking through the list, top 8 feels about right. Now going through the list and qualitatively comparing them vs. AJB, though this admittedly does not factor in ROS schedule which should matter: Comfortably Ahead (guys I'd instantly accept in a swap) Adams (comfortably #1 overall WR) DK Hill Slightly Ahead (guys I'd probably accept in a swap but would at least think about it first) Hopkins (should probably be up 1 tier... probably biased from yesterday's game! TD's have been a bit low too) Allen (crazy target volume and strong chemistry with Herb... could make the case for him being up 1 tier too) Same Tier (guys I may or may not trade AJB for, depending on ROS schedule / personal preference) MT (could move up 1-2 tiers - need to see how his target volume going forward shakes out) Julio (could maybe be bumped up to the slightly-ahead tier, but I'm always worried about Julio's durability) Diggs (having a great season but probably wouldn't trade AJB for him) Lockett (not a fan of the inconsistency though) Ridley (probably wouldn't trade AJB for him) WR6-10 feels about right. 3 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Evincar 1,689 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, mvttchew said: Where do you guys rank him with the other top 10-15 WRs? Only ones I would have for sure ahead of him: Adams, Hill, Diggs, Allen, Hopkins, DK, Ridley, Thomas, Lockett Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JacobThunder15 321 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Evincar said: Only ones I would have for sure ahead of him: Adams, Hill, Diggs, Allen, Hopkins, DK, Ridley, Thomas, Lockett Lockett I am a little hesitant on, otherwise I agree. Aj Brown does a lot with a little targets, Lockett does little if DK is getting the targets 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
cheezor42 534 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 I agree with the 6-9 range...he continues to have a tough schedule. If he had some cupcakes in there different story. Next year he’s top 5 no hesitation for me. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ryansm11 2,083 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 hours ago, cheezor42 said: I agree with the 6-9 range...he continues to have a tough schedule. If he had some cupcakes in there different story. Next year he’s top 5 no hesitation for me. Tough schedule is good. Cupcakes = Henry time less AJB. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PlayTheWaivers 1,886 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 This dude's projections are still the most disrespected out there. 16 PPG since he's returned yet constantly being projected at 11. And that included one dud outlier game at Cincy. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Everynameistaken 86 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said: This dude's projections are still the most disrespected out there. 16 PPG since he's returned yet constantly being projected at 11. And that included one dud outlier game at Cincy. I love the disrespect, the look on your opponents face when your team beat projection by a wide margin is soul crushing 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JacobThunder15 321 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Everynameistaken said: I love the disrespect, the look on your opponents face when your team beat projection by a wide margin is soul crushing I've had guys in trade talks not rate him over any other WR2 and then face them the following week only to see exactly what youre talking about. They see the low volume and TDs and think it cant keep up, but trust DK in that offense. Basically the same style of player, and I love owning AJ with his consistency Quote Link to post Share on other sites
herschel 1,986 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said: This dude's projections are still the most disrespected out there. 16 PPG since he's returned yet constantly being projected at 11. And that included one dud outlier game at Cincy. CBS projecting him for 15.5 this week in PPR. They’re learning... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
phillyfan461 133 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 9 hours ago, herschel said: CBS projecting him for 15.5 this week in PPR. They’re learning... Put some respect on this man's name Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ajs723 3,327 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Brown's season is really weird if you dive into his numbers a little. He's getting 8 targets per game which is way better than I would have expected. However, he's well outside of the top 50 qualified WRs in catch rate. That's shockingly low. He's also been scoring TDs at an unsustainable rate, and has made more than a few huge plays. If that catch rate goes up, he could be a top 5 WR, but if it doesn't, and the TD production regresses, he could drop precipitously. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PlayTheWaivers 1,886 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, ajs723 said: Brown's season is really weird if you dive into his numbers a little. He's getting 8 targets per game which is way better than I would have expected. However, he's well outside of the top 50 qualified WRs in catch rate. That's shockingly low. He's also been scoring TDs at an unsustainable rate, and has made more than a few huge plays. If that catch rate goes up, he could be a top 5 WR, but if it doesn't, and the TD production regresses, he could drop precipitously. true catch rate is 87%, close to end of top 50...but how much better can this get? Only one drop- he’s probably not getting the best quality targets from Tanny. td paces are sustainable until they aren’t, as well as big plays...that is his game and what his calling card is...big play size speed freak with a nose for the end zone. Way more consistent than last year. They just need to get this guy better quality targets and let him work vs traditional deep threat targets. But their play action game to me seems to be medium risk medium to high reward 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
cheezor42 534 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, ajs723 said: Brown's season is really weird if you dive into his numbers a little. He's getting 8 targets per game which is way better than I would have expected. However, he's well outside of the top 50 qualified WRs in catch rate. That's shockingly low. He's also been scoring TDs at an unsustainable rate, and has made more than a few huge plays. If that catch rate goes up, he could be a top 5 WR, but if it doesn't, and the TD production regresses, he could drop precipitously. catch rate is a virtually meaningless statistic. DKs catch rate is lower for example. as long as he’s getting 8+ targets per game, he’s going to feast far more often than not. Say his catch rate was 70% instead of 62%...that’s less than one more catch per game..hardly make or break. He gets high value targets and can take any play to the house. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ajs723 3,327 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, cheezor42 said: catch rate is a virtually meaningless statistic. DKs catch rate is lower for example. as long as he’s getting 8+ targets per game, he’s going to feast far more often than not. Say his catch rate was 70% instead of 62%...that’s less than one more catch per game..hardly make or break. He gets high value targets and can take any play to the house. If looked at outside of context, of course it's meaningless. DK has an average depth of target of about 15 yards downfield (very high). AJ Brown, on the other hand, has an average depth of target under 9 yards (very low). There's no good reason Brown's catch rate should be so low. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
cheezor42 534 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 46 minutes ago, ajs723 said: If looked at outside of context, of course it's meaningless. DK has an average depth of target of about 15 yards downfield (very high). AJ Brown, on the other hand, has an average depth of target under 9 yards (very low). There's no good reason Brown's catch rate should be so low. By low we're talking about a few percentage points here, if he catches one or two more balls overall he moves up that list exponentially which isn't much considering the small sample size. His catch rate is virtually unchanged over his career so far, it hovers around 62-65%. This season he's still proving he's a YAC God at WR, with only Kupp & McLauren having more YAC per catch out of receivers playing in 6 or more games this year, so again if we're getting beyond individual stats and looking at context his skillset is well suited towards taking those shorter catches to the house. Part of the reason I think his catch rate isn't elite is that he's not an elite separator, he wins by out-muscling the DB at the catch and then being a nightmare to bring down in the open field. I don't mean to discredit your point, I think it's interesting to bring up, but when I look at the full picture it doesn't worry me, especially given he's been battling an exposiveness-sapping injury for most of the year. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ajs723 3,327 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, cheezor42 said: By low we're talking about a few percentage points here, if he catches one or two more balls overall he moves up that list exponentially which isn't much considering the small sample size. His catch rate is virtually unchanged over his career so far, it hovers around 62-65%. This season he's still proving he's a YAC God at WR, with only Kupp & McLauren having more YAC per catch out of receivers playing in 6 or more games this year, so again if we're getting beyond individual stats and looking at context his skillset is well suited towards taking those shorter catches to the house. Part of the reason I think his catch rate isn't elite is that he's not an elite separator, he wins by out-muscling the DB at the catch and then being a nightmare to bring down in the open field. I don't mean to discredit your point, I think it's interesting to bring up, but when I look at the full picture it doesn't worry me, especially given he's been battling an exposiveness-sapping injury for most of the year. Right, I don't know if it worries me either. It actually could be a plus. He's producing this well with that low of a catch rate, you could argue it can only get better from here. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
pierceNKC 493 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Wtf y’all? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
fbi314159 157 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Sour grapes, but if you're just going to try and force it to receivers try and force it to your best one. Two targets sucks. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
yossarian 3,519 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, fbi314159 said: Sour grapes, but if you're just going to try and force it to receivers try and force it to your best one. Two targets sucks. yup. he gets so few targets that something like that drop is 10x more painful than if he was a typical WR1 who gets 10ish targets a week. Also Indy is just a good defense. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jrt80 228 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 This is what I was fearing with him. At the end of the day he just doesn’t get enough targets to be a weekly WR1 in standard leagues. He’s fine in standard, but this offense just doesn’t throw it enough to give him a safe volume every game. I think we honestly got lucky this didn’t happen sooner (and it almost did 2 weeks ago). If he makes that one catch it’s an entirely different convo, but it shouldn’t be. His productivity really does hinge on 1-2 plays a game, way more than other top WR’s do. And if we’re being honest he doesn’tExactly have the softest hands. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ajs723 3,327 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, pierceNKC said: Wtf y’all? This is a weekly possibility with Brown. He's still a stud, but he doesn't get a lot of volume, and he has a low catch rate. This is his weekly floor. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
cheezor42 534 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 **** happens 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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