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3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

AJ Brown averaged just over 4.5 receptions and 7 targets per game this year. 

If I were to project him for next year, assuming health...  I'd say 72.5 receptions and 1000 yards. It's all about TDs with this dude. 

Even with 6 TDs, these numbers would make him no more than a decent WR3. 

With 12 TDs, he's a low end WR1 again. 

So the question with Brown is do you want to count a guy scoring a dozen TDs. That's a gigantic risk, as TDs are the hardest thing to predict in fantasy. 

 

Feel like we always find ourselves here, I agree with you but I think we are past the TD assessment honestly he's such a big play threat/nose for the end zone I don't see anyway for him not to be scoring TD's in bunches assuming he plays 14-16 games. That being said the real problem here is the volume as you've stated previous times and used in your WR1 arguments. If they aren't going to tweak this scheme at all and continue to run Henry in games down 20 and such yes you'll be getting a very good player regardless but the upside is capped, what makes it so annoying is with some more opportunity here or there he is as capable as anyone of throwing up 40+ fantasy nights as we've seen from many players the last few days. He's a monster but he hasn't been " fed " not even one game this year the TD barrage will continue but will always leave you wanting more if he's going to be receiving this usage. 

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AJ Brown has a message for you fantasy owners:  

He should definitely see a urologist in that case.

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10 minutes ago, CroNY said:

Feel like we always find ourselves here, I agree with you but I think we are past the TD assessment honestly he's such a big play threat/nose for the end zone I don't see anyway for him not to be scoring TD's in bunches assuming he plays 14-16 games. That being said the real problem here is the volume as you've stated previous times and used in your WR1 arguments. If they aren't going to tweak this scheme at all and continue to run Henry in games down 20 and such yes you'll be getting a very good player regardless but the upside is capped, what makes it so annoying is with some more opportunity here or there he is as capable as anyone of throwing up 40+ fantasy nights as we've seen from many players the last few days. He's a monster but he hasn't been " fed " not even one game this year the TD barrage will continue but will always leave you wanting more if he's going to be receiving this usage. 

I can't see the scheme getting tweaked, BUT Henry has seen a massive workload for 2 straight years. If (*knock on wood*) Henry were to go down with a significant injury, it's almost a guarantee that Brown would see more volume. That's honestly the only way I see it happening. 

As for the nose for the endzone thing, it's all a crapshoot. Sure, some guys are obviously better at it than others, but look at some of the greatest receivers of all time. 

Calvin Johnson in 2012. He had nearly 2000 yards receiving, and was a red zone monster. Somehow, he had 5 total TDs that year. 

Julio Jones is one of the most purely talented players to ever play the position, and he's been alternating between 3, 6, and 8 TDs every year for 7 years!

MIchael Thomas has never had 10 TDs in a season. That one is hard for me to believe. 

DeAndre Hopkins only had 7 TDs last year, and only has 6 this year. 

Mike Evans had 3 TDs in 2015 and 5 TDs in 2017.

Unless we're talking about Jerry Rice or Marvin Harrison, you just can't bank on a guy getting double digit TDs every year. And again, the floor is low. With 6 TDs, Brown is extremely unlikely to be anything more than a WR3. 

 

 

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8 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I can't see the scheme getting tweaked, BUT Henry has seen a massive workload for 2 straight years. If (*knock on wood*) Henry were to go down with a significant injury, it's almost a guarantee that Brown would see more volume. That's honestly the only way I see it happening. 

As for the nose for the endzone thing, it's all a crapshoot. Sure, some guys are obviously better at it than others, but look at some of the greatest receivers of all time. 

Calvin Johnson in 2012. He had nearly 2000 yards receiving, and was a red zone monster. Somehow, he had 5 total TDs that year. 

Julio Jones is one of the most purely talented players to ever play the position, and he's been alternating between 3, 6, and 8 TDs every year for 7 years!

MIchael Thomas has never had 10 TDs in a season. That one is hard for me to believe. 

DeAndre Hopkins only had 7 TDs last year, and only has 6 this year. 

Mike Evans had 3 TDs in 2015 and 5 TDs in 2017.

Unless we're talking about Jerry Rice or Marvin Harrison, you just can't bank on a guy getting double digit TDs every year. And again, the floor is low. With 6 TDs, Brown is extremely unlikely to be anything more than a WR3. 

 

 

I'm just rationalizing this situation by assuming he's going to get 8-12 TD's no problem. I think anyone who has him in keeper is annoyed by the cap and anyone who is going to draft him has to invest heavy capital next year for a guy who has such low volume. He's such a talent you get lured in regardless and he's a good player either way in fantasy and consistent with the TD's. I don't disagree with anything you said just trying to talk myself into anyway he can get to 80 receptions next year which seems light years away. Also yes to your point about Henry how long can he carry on with these ridiculous workloads something needs to give, but to your point why would they change anything winning 10+ games. 

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1 hour ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

So it sounds like we are all in agreement that Brown is capped due to the system....so in keeper/dynasty leagues is he someone you guys would try to buy or try to trade? 

I look at the shelf life of a rb vs a wr and see crazy value in Brown.  When a rb has the volume that Derrick Henry has,  they start to decline.  I wouldn't be surprised to see AJ have a monster year as soon as next year.  

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I had him this year, but he was my WR1 and you never feel great about that given his usage.  

I'd love for him to be my WR2, but that would entail drafting a WR in the first two rounds instead of going RB RB.

It's very nerve racking owning a WR1 who doesn't even get 10 targets.

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Can’t believe some are bashing this guy. It’s pretty simple. If you play in PPR he drops a bit. You obviously want volume guys for a consistent floor. If you play in standard where there’s no fluff involved and you don’t get participation points he’s an easy top 8-10 WR if healthy and playing every game. Perfect round 4 target. This guy has not even had his best season yet. These are the type of players you want to target. Draft them before they break out. Not after at premium prices.

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35 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Can’t believe some are bashing this guy. It’s pretty simple. If you play in PPR he drops a bit. You obviously want volume guys for a consistent floor. If you play in standard where there’s no fluff involved and you don’t get participation points he’s an easy top 8-10 WR if healthy and playing every game. Perfect round 4 target. This guy has not even had his best season yet. These are the type of players you want to target. Draft them before they break out. Not after at premium prices.


agreed but I just think there’s no way he’s a 4th rounder next szn after what he did this year nursing an injury and in his sophomore campaign.  The upside of him getting just another couple targets a game fully healthy will be too tantalizing for him to slip into the 4th.  He WILL be a top 8 WR next year and anything 3rd round and later will be a great buy.

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29 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


agreed but I just think there’s no way he’s a 4th rounder next szn after what he did this year nursing an injury and in his sophomore campaign.  The upside of him getting just another couple targets a game fully healthy will be too tantalizing for him to slip into the 4th.  He WILL be a top 8 WR next year and anything 3rd round and later will be a great buy.

Well way I look at it is in standard right now he’s WR11. So there’s 10 other WRs that could go ahead of him. Top 10 RBs will most likely go ahead of him. Then you got Kelce Waller Kittle and the top QBs that will go ahead of him and then all the injured players like CMC, Thomas, Julio, barkley, mixon etc that didn’t even make it into the top 10 rankings. So there’s a fairly decent chance he slips into the 4th in quite a bit of leagues. Late 3rd early 4th would be my target. And if he goes really early then you don’t reach. In PPR he’s probably like WR13 or something like that right now so he should drop even further in PPR leagues. 

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4 hours ago, cheezor42 said:


agreed but I just think there’s no way he’s a 4th rounder next szn after what he did this year nursing an injury and in his sophomore campaign.  The upside of him getting just another couple targets a game fully healthy will be too tantalizing for him to slip into the 4th.  He WILL be a top 8 WR next year and anything 3rd round and later will be a great buy.

Exactly. I got him late 3rd this year in a standard league. There's not chance in hell he's going in the 4th round 2021 after this season. But it's worth discussing if the he's worth the earlier captial given his lack of WR1 usage. Nobody's bashing the guy, just pointing out how unfortunate it is (and how amazing it is) he's been so reliant on busting big plays on his own or scoring TDs to be the WR1 he was this year.

I think he's going to be a top 24 guy in standard to be honest. And even given that I'll probably still take him and hope the volume goes up or the TDs somehow don't regress because he's so talented. And the dude only just finished his 2nd year lol

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Everyone blaming Henry for lack of volume but are ignoring the obvious... Even though Arthur Juan didn't have a single 10 target game, his counterpart Corey Davis had THREE... And Arthur Juan was on the field and full go healthy for all 3.

At this point, he's overrated for fantasy football.

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3 hours ago, USWAY said:

Exactly. I got him late 3rd this year in a standard league. There's not chance in hell he's going in the 4th round 2021 after this season. But it's worth discussing if the he's worth the earlier captial given his lack of WR1 usage. Nobody's bashing the guy, just pointing out how unfortunate it is (and how amazing it is) he's been so reliant on busting big plays on his own or scoring TDs to be the WR1 he was this year.

I think he's going to be a top 24 guy in standard to be honest. And even given that I'll probably still take him and hope the volume goes up or the TDs somehow don't regress because he's so talented. And the dude only just finished his 2nd year lol

Just because you drafted him in the third doesn’t mean the majority of people did. That was a reach. On fantasy pros his ADP he went pick 34 in standard scoring. That’s middle of the 4th in ten team leagues. In PPR he was pick 41. That’s even further. He was also being ranked as WR 13. He didn’t blow those numbers away by any means. There’s absolutely a chance he can go late third to early 4th next year. Especially with his bad game in the finals.

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24 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Just because you drafted him in the third doesn’t mean the majority of people did. That was a reach. On fantasy pros his ADP he went pick 34 in standard scoring. That’s middle of the 4th in ten team leagues. In PPR he was pick 41. That’s even further. He was also being ranked as WR 13. He didn’t blow those numbers away by any means. There’s absolutely a chance he can go late third to early 4th next year. Especially with his bad game in the finals.

Middle of the fourth in a 10 team is third round in a 12 team. Way to throw that in there to fit your narrative. Also judging by his "top 24 guy" quote I imagine he is talking 12, not 10.

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13 minutes ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Middle of the fourth in a 10 team is third round in a 12 team. Way to throw that in there to fit your narrative. Also judging by his "top 24 guy" quote I imagine he is talking 12, not 10.

Yep, I actually took him 35th (late 3rd round) in my 12 team standard league. One spot behind his FantasyPros ADP is you believe that. I just can't see anyway his ADP is below that 2021, think he's going to go right around top 24; that 2/3 turn. 

It's funny because as of now if I walk out of my draft with him as my early 3rd pick, I love it. If he's my late second I'm wary. Wouldn't be that many picks that separate the two, but that's fantasy I guess lol.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

Everyone blaming Henry for lack of volume but are ignoring the obvious... Even though Arthur Juan didn't have a single 10 target game, his counterpart Corey Davis had THREE... And Arthur Juan was on the field and full go healthy for all 3.

At this point, he's overrated for fantasy football.

 

That's a good point.  Does that mean teams sold out to stop AJ and left davis running free?   

 

For wht it's worth on the weeks davis had 10 targets..

Week 7  Davis 10  AJ 7

Week 8 DAvis 10  AJ 8 

Week 13 Davis 13 AJ 7 

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41 minutes ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Middle of the fourth in a 10 team is third round in a 12 team. Way to throw that in there to fit your narrative. Also judging by his "top 24 guy" quote I imagine he is talking 12, not 10.

I’m just using ten team leagues as an average. I bet the majority of leagues are ten team and probably PPR or at the very minimum half PPR. He dropped even further in those leagues. 41 in full PPR. So let’s just say for arguments sake in 12 team standard leagues he was being drafted late third. He didn’t blow away his ADP, he missed a couple games, he looked hobbled for half the season, he didn’t get the big volume people were hoping for and he didn’t have a good game in the finals. Then you got some new stars like DK, and Justin Jefferson etc who did a lot better than their ADP. These are all things that people will be looking at. In my original post I said I would try to target him late third to early 4th. I’m still saying the same thing. There’s a chance he can be drafted there next year. 

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Just now, StevenSC400 said:

I’m just using ten team leagues as an average. I bet the majority of leagues are ten team and probably PPR or at the very minimum half PPR. He dropped even further in those leagues. 41 in full PPR. So let’s just say for arguments sake in 12 team standard leagues he was being drafted late third. He didn’t blow away his ADP, he missed a couple games, he looked hobbled for half the season, he didn’t get the big volume people were hoping for and he didn’t have a good game in the finals. Then you got some new stars like DK, and Justin Jefferson etc who did a lot better than their ADP. These are all things that people will be looking at. In my original post I said I would try to target him late third to early 4th. I’m still saying the same thing. There’s a chance he can be drafted there next year. 

I just like how clearly the guy is talking about a 12 team league but you changed it to 10 to prove him "wrong" lol. 

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10 minutes ago, Ffguy0087 said:

I just like how clearly the guy is talking about a 12 team league but you changed it to 10 to prove him "wrong" lol. 

I missed the late third part actually. I just read it as third round but there’s no where he said 12 team league so I assumed ten team. Anyway though the point that I’m trying to make is that it’s possible his ADP stays the same next year as it did this year. There’s going to be some people that shy away from him for all those reasons I said earlier. I personally wouldn’t draft him in the second for example. The value isn’t there. 

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1 hour ago, StevenSC400 said:

Just because you drafted him in the third doesn’t mean the majority of people did. That was a reach. On fantasy pros his ADP he went pick 34 in standard scoring. That’s middle of the 4th in ten team leagues. In PPR he was pick 41. That’s even further. He was also being ranked as WR 13. He didn’t blow those numbers away by any means. There’s absolutely a chance he can go late third to early 4th next year. Especially with his bad game in the finals.

Most people don't play in pre school leagues of less than 12. Anything less than 12 your team's are all loaded. Even 12 is loaded but respectable

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24 minutes ago, Eaglesflyhigh11 said:

Most people don't play in pre school leagues of less than 12. Anything less than 12 your team's are all loaded. Even 12 is loaded but respectable

Pre school leagues lol. Ok. League size doesn’t mean anything. You can have a 16 team league with people that don’t know what their doing. Or a bunch of skilled players in 10 team league and tell me which one will be harder. Good luck next year in your “respectable” 12 team lol.

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7 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Pre school leagues lol. Ok. League size doesn’t mean anything. You can have a 16 team league with people that don’t know what their doing. Or a bunch of skilled players in 10 team league and tell me which one will be harder. Good luck next year in your “respectable” 12 team lol.

I hate when people say "late third" or "early fourth".  Everyone plays in different size leagues and that's fine.  Why can't people just use ADP?  Would skip a lot of this useless arguing if you were to just say "he'll be at #35 next year".

I have owned him both years but I think I'm out next year.  He's got talent to be a top 5 WR.  But as said many times here, his usage isn't there.  You can't expect him to a house a slant every single game.  He's PPR 16 I believe this year, and that's about where he was drafted.  But unless there's any offseason coach speak about changing the offensive philosophy, there's no way I'm going to target him next year.  Watching that Packer Titans game where they are down 25 or so points and seeing Vrabel hand the ball off 4 times in a row to Henry is enough for me.  Even when the team is down big, they still run the ball.  

AJ is talented, but he's not an alpha.  The mere fact that Corey Davis became a thing this year is a reflection of that.  Tannehill is a limited albeit competent passer.  This team won't force feed their #1.  I'd be fine owning him as my WR2 or 3, but if you're having to pick him at #35, that's not going to be the case in most circumstances unless you sacrificed at the RB position.

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Y’all have some hardcore recency bias from this terrible packers game in the snow. Yes it was a terrible game but it was not at all representative of what AJ gave all year.  I’m tired of people saying “you can’t expect him to get a big play every game!” when for 2 straight years that’s what he’s done week in and week out on net.  AJ has also been gimped literally the entire year.  People draft for upside and floor. We saw AJs floor this year.  He will be drafted for his 3rd year alpha breakout upside.  Even if he doesn’t achieve it you still just got a top 10 wr.

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43 minutes ago, CooL said:

I hate when people say "late third" or "early fourth".  Everyone plays in different size leagues and that's fine.  Why can't people just use ADP?  Would skip a lot of this useless arguing if you were to just say "he'll be at #35 next year".

I have owned him both years but I think I'm out next year.  He's got talent to be a top 5 WR.  But as said many times here, his usage isn't there.  You can't expect him to a house a slant every single game.  He's PPR 16 I believe this year, and that's about where he was drafted.  But unless there's any offseason coach speak about changing the offensive philosophy, there's no way I'm going to target him next year.  Watching that Packer Titans game where they are down 25 or so points and seeing Vrabel hand the ball off 4 times in a row to Henry is enough for me.  Even when the team is down big, they still run the ball.  

AJ is talented, but he's not an alpha.  The mere fact that Corey Davis became a thing this year is a reflection of that.  Tannehill is a limited albeit competent passer.  This team won't force feed their #1.  I'd be fine owning him as my WR2 or 3, but if you're having to pick him at #35, that's not going to be the case in most circumstances unless you sacrificed at the RB position.

Well he wasn’t healthy for most of the year either. Even his last game he looked hobbled running on and off the field. Those are just one of the many reasons he probably won’t go top 24. But if you can get him pick “35-40” in standard or pick “40-45” in PPR there’s some upside there. I can’t talk for PPR but in standard he should easily finish top 10 if healthy and playing every game. I personally like him a lot more in standard. Only thing that matters is yards and TDs. So if he’s producing I could care less if it’s on 10 catches or 5 catches. He has true breakout potential next year. 

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4 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Everyone blaming Henry for lack of volume but are ignoring the obvious... Even though Arthur Juan didn't have a single 10 target game, his counterpart Corey Davis had THREE... And Arthur Juan was on the field and full go healthy for all 3.

At this point, he's overrated for fantasy football.

 

Tannehill is indifferent between them. It shows.

One player is much better than the other though, which also shows.

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