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AJ Brown has a message for you fantasy owners:  

He should definitely see a urologist in that case.

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3 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

Pre school leagues lol. Ok. League size doesn’t mean anything. You can have a 16 team league with people that don’t know what their doing. Or a bunch of skilled players in 10 team league and tell me which one will be harder. Good luck next year in your “respectable” 12 team lol.

I don't play in a 12. I play in 16 but thanks you too. Anything less than 12 is boring. Why does everyone need stacked teams. More rewarding digging for guys on the waiver and having them payoff vs waivers being stacked with talent

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3 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

Pre school leagues lol. Ok. League size doesn’t mean anything. You can have a 16 team league with people that don’t know what their doing. Or a bunch of skilled players in 10 team league and tell me which one will be harder. Good luck next year in your “respectable” 12 team lol.

 

 

So true...I hate when people talk about their leagues. Most of the times they are not playing with skilled players

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22 minutes ago, Eaglesflyhigh11 said:

I don't play in a 12. I play in 16 but thanks you too. Anything less than 12 is boring. Why does everyone need stacked teams. More rewarding digging for guys on the waiver and having them payoff vs waivers being stacked with talent

That’s your opinion. In my opinion it doesn’t matter how stacked or not stacked teams are you still have to pick the right guys to start and the playing field is equal in either scenario. Just like my opinion is why play in PPR and get participation points? So guys like AJ brown get criticized for his low “volume” but your regular average WRs like crowder or Robinson go 5 for 50 get a free ten points and get praised for how “great” they are doing. Either way what makes a league competitive is how good your opponents are in fantasy football. Not whether your league is 16 teams and PPR or 10 teams and standard.

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1 hour ago, StevenSC400 said:

That’s your opinion. In my opinion it doesn’t matter how stacked or not stacked teams are you still have to pick the right guys to start and the playing field is equal in either scenario. Just like my opinion is why play in PPR and get participation points? So guys like AJ brown get criticized for his low “volume” but your regular average WRs like crowder or Robinson go 5 for 50 get a free ten points and get praised for how “great” they are doing. Either way what makes a league competitive is how good your opponents are in fantasy football. Not whether your league is 16 teams and PPR or 10 teams and standard.

Anyone playing in leagues with no good competition shouldn't even be posting in here. Those leagues are as good as a free league.

Standard was fun like ten plus years ago. Whenever ppr didn't really exist. Only way I don't like ppr is when a dude gets a negative catch and still gets a point. That's dumb but hard to tell the computer to do all these special things

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I had last year second half, and drafted him this year.  He is hard to own when you see that 2.4 at halftime, but he mostly seems to end around 20.  Some games he duds for sure and that’s the risk, but also rare to get a real blowup.

I found myself benching him for floor guys with massive target share often and I rarely got burned, and many times he matched them.  Not many times did he beat them by a lot.  
 

I’m not saying I’ll not draft him, but if it’s between him and a DionJohnson type, I’m taking Dionte.  

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1 hour ago, Cleanface said:

I had last year second half, and drafted him this year.  He is hard to own when you see that 2.4 at halftime, but he mostly seems to end around 20.  Some games he duds for sure and that’s the risk, but also rare to get a real blowup.

I found myself benching him for floor guys with massive target share often and I rarely got burned, and many times he matched them.  Not many times did he beat them by a lot.  
 

I’m not saying I’ll not draft him, but if it’s between him and a DionJohnson type, I’m taking Dionte.  

I would draft AJB over Johnson 10/10 times. 

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48 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I would draft AJB over Johnson 10/10 times. 

Why?! Would anyone anywhere project Brown to score more fantasy points than Johnson next year.

Over/unders for Johnson and Brown would look something like this (even being generous with TDs to Brown, and stingy to Johnson).

Johnson 94.5 receptions, 975 yards, 6.5 TDs

Brown 72.5 receptions, 1050 yards 8.5 TDs

That's more points for Johnson in PPR, and it's assuming that Brown gets 8 or 9 TDs again next year. There's just as good of a chance that Johnson has 9 TDs, and Brown has 6, especially with how much the Steelers throw to him.

 

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30 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Why?! Would anyone anywhere project Brown to score more fantasy points than Johnson next year.

Over/unders for Johnson and Brown would look something like this (even being generous with TDs to Brown, and stingy to Johnson).

Johnson 94.5 receptions, 975 yards, 6.5 TDs

Brown 72.5 receptions, 1050 yards 8.5 TDs

That's more points for Johnson in PPR, and it's assuming that Brown gets 8 or 9 TDs again next year. There's just as good of a chance that Johnson has 9 TDs, and Brown has 6, especially with how much the Steelers throw to him.

 

Why would anyone project him to score less than 8 TD’s when he’s gotten 10 seamlessly while missing games. You lose me with the Brown TD’s lol, It’s more likely he gets 14 than 6 assuming he’s healthy. Also theres not just as good of a chance of Johnson scoring more TD’s than AJB imo. AJB currently has 11 more fantasy pts than Johnson in my full PPR and I think we know easily who is the better talent. Looking forward to see how this turns out if he goes for 10+ again we need to stop with that talking point, you have me with the volume undoubtably annoying for a WR1/ borderline WR1 whatever you want to call him to not be able to eclipse 10 targets ever in an entire season.

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17 minutes ago, CroNY said:

Why would anyone project him to score less than 8 TD’s when he’s gotten 10 seamlessly while missing games. You lose me with the Brown TD’s lol, It’s more likely he gets 14 than 6 assuming he’s healthy. Also theres not just as good of a chance of Johnson scoring more TD’s than AJB imo. AJB currently has 11 more fantasy pts than Johnson in my full PPR and I think we know easily who is the better talent. Looking forward to see how this turns out if he goes for 10+ again we need to stop with that talking point, you have me with the volume undoubtably annoying for a WR1/ borderline WR1 whatever you want to call him to not be able to eclipse 10 targets ever in an entire season.

Here's a list of current WRs with an active streak of consecutive 10 TD seasons:

 

.... No one. Not a single WR in the league. It is insanely unlikley that any player, not to mention one in a low volume passing offense, can score 10 TDs in a given season, much less back to back seasons. Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams I'm pretty sure are the only active WR who have done it. And all three were massive target hogs in pass happy offenses.

 

You just can't expect Brown to do that with his 6-7 targets per game. It is exponentially more likely that Brown scores 6 TDs than 14. Not a knock on Brown either. I'd say the same thing of Hopkins, Evans, Michael Thomas, or basically any WR in football. 

 

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9 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Here's a list of current WRs with an active streak of consecutive 10 TD seasons:

 

.... No one. Not a single WR in the league. It is insanely unlikley that any player, not to mention one in a low volume passing offense, can score 10 TDs in a given season. Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams I'm pretty sure are the only active WR who have done it. And all three were massive target hogs in pass happy offenses.

 

You just can't expect Brown to do that with his 6-7 targets per game. It is exponentially more likely that Brown scores 6 TDs than 14. Not a knock on Brown either. I'd say the same thing of Hopkins, Evans, Michael Thomas, or basically any WR in football. 

 

Fair enough respect your opinion I look forward to revisiting this however it plays out have a feeling I will be right, although I will probably forget. That being said saying Johnson whose gotten 5 and 7 TD's respectfully the last 2 seasons is going to jump to 9 now and AJB is going to go from 10 to 6 I just don't see that as something thats likely. To a previous posters take I'm taking AJB over Johnson 10/10 times as well, but to each his own!

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9 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

I missed the late third part actually. I just read it as third round but there’s no where he said 12 team league so I assumed ten team. Anyway though the point that I’m trying to make is that it’s possible his ADP stays the same next year as it did this year. There’s going to be some people that shy away from him for all those reasons I said earlier. I personally wouldn’t draft him in the second for example. The value isn’t there. 

He said top 24. Thats a 12 team reference.

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7 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:

Diontae Johnson over AJB next year? Totally absurd.
 

No player in the league does less with more than Diontae. Conversely no player does more with less than AJB.  

LMAO. This is absolutely true. Which is exactly why you should take Johnson over Brown. Give me the player who's due for positive regression, not the player who's due for negative regression! 

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5 hours ago, Cleanface said:

I had last year second half, and drafted him this year.  He is hard to own when you see that 2.4 at halftime, but he mostly seems to end around 20.  Some games he duds for sure and that’s the risk, but also rare to get a real blowup.

I found myself benching him for floor guys with massive target share often and I rarely got burned, and many times he matched them.  Not many times did he beat them by a lot.  
 

I’m not saying I’ll not draft him, but if it’s between him and a DionJohnson type, I’m taking Dionte.  

You own AJB for the upside and the week winning weeks.  You start him and play him for that reason.  If you find yourself benching him for guys that will give you 5 for 50 and nothing more, then why are you even owning AJB in the first place?!  Spend that 3rd or 4th rounder on someone else you'll actually play!

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So some people seem to be really focused on targets with brown. How he can’t do it with so little targets again etc. Who says he won’t get more targets next year? This was only his second year. He was banged up in the early part and probably not 100% the whole year. I think that’s one of the reasons Corey Davis finally did something this year. Sooner or later the Titans are going to realize they aren’t going to win the super bowl running all game just like the ravens especially with their terrible defense. At some point you have to be a more balanced offense. The Titans were the number 2 team in most rushing attempts behind the ravens. But were the third worst team in passing attempts. The Worst were the ravens followed by the pats then the Titans. Tanny is an above average QB. There’s no reason why they don’t become a bit more balanced next year. This is the upside that can bring brown to elite status. Some of you that are comparing him to Dionte. Well the Steelers have the most pass attempts this year. More than the chiefs which is crazy especially with how good their defense is. Most likely that’s going to change next year. An argument could be made Dionte might not get as many targets next year especially with how good claypool played this year. I personally think both players have upside and potential downside and both will probably be taken a round apart. I do like AJB more though. But it all comes down to value and where they get ranked next year.

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

LMAO. This is absolutely true. Which is exactly why you should take Johnson over Brown. Give me the player who's due for positive regression, not the player who's due for negative regression! 


except AJ has put up crazy efficient results his effectively his whole career now. Many (maybe you were among them) were here before this season touting the regression to the mean narrative for him too.  Who is more likely to realize upside here, the guy who nearly leads the league in targets per game and over a massive sample size has demonstrated inefficiency in usage or the guy who has huge target increase upside and has been an efficiency stallion his whole career?  I mean for gods sakes AJ outscored diontae in PPG this year despite diontaes target share which leaves him no upside.  Also one of these two has their production completely tied to an aging and oft injured gunslinger.  I owned both of these guys this year and this call is too easy for me.

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36 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


except AJ has put up crazy efficient results his effectively his whole career now. Many (maybe you were among them) were here before this season touting the regression to the mean narrative for him too.  Who is more likely to realize upside here, the guy who nearly leads the league in targets per game and over a massive sample size has demonstrated inefficiency in usage or the guy who has huge target increase upside and has been an efficiency stallion his whole career?  I mean for gods sakes AJ outscored diontae in PPG this year despite diontaes target share which leaves him no upside.  Also one of these two has their production completely tied to an aging and oft injured gunslinger.  I owned both of these guys this year and this call is too easy for me.

This is all fair, except I don't think a huge target increase has much of a chance unless he gets traded, or Henry gets hurt early in the season. 

The bigger issue here is that Diontae will almost certainly get drafted multiple rounds after AJ. You can argue Brown has the higher upside and that you prefer him in fantasy. But I think Johnson, and many others, will pretty clearly provide better value relative to where they get drafted in 2021.

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14 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

This is all fair, except I don't think a huge target increase has much of a chance unless he gets traded, or Henry gets hurt early in the season. 

The bigger issue here is that Diontae will almost certainly get drafted multiple rounds after AJ. You can argue Brown has the higher upside and that you prefer him in fantasy. But I think Johnson, and many others, will pretty clearly provide better value relative to where they get drafted in 2021.


Corey Davis probably isn’t a titan next year and they’re likely to move towards balancing the offense a bit, plus the likelihood of Henry breaking down at some point is there.  


But yeah i agree their relative values will be determined by draft capital but you said you’re taking him over AJB which implies you would leave AJB on the board...Just seems a bit crazy to me unless it’s full PPR then maybe.  I can see a world where diontaes draft value ends up higher cause his adp is significantly lower but I doubt they’re too far apart.  AJB will be an early 3rd rounder and Diontae early 4th is my too-early guess. I think both will be targets of mine but I’ll take the hyper efficient stud with target upside if I have to choose.

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Why do people think that his target share will increase, other than the idea that Davis and Jonnu may both be gone?  

This is a Titans team that has has success for 2 years pounding it to Henry.

Whoever said a few posts up that Tanny is an above average QB...Tanny is the definition of average, maybe slightly below average.  He is a bad QB who is in a good system that supports the abilities he does have.  He doesn't have to be the guy to win the game, just needs to not turn the ball over and make a few accurate passes in the short, intermediate range. 

Unless Henry gets hurt there's no reason to think they will move away from that game plan next year. 

 

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Adams

Hill

Diggs

Hopkins

Thomas

Allen

Metcalf

Ridley

Brown

Justin Jefferson?

ARob?

Diontae Johnson?

You could argue for other guys near the bottom, but Brown sticks out like a sore thumb! 

Every other name on the list averages roughly 9 to 11 targets per game (Justin Jefferson is averaging about 10 per game since breaking out, DK is averaging just over 8 on the season). Brown, meanwhile, is averaging 7.3 targets per game. You might not think 2 targets per game is a big deal, but think about it this way. 2 targets per game fewer than Brown would be 5.3. That's what Jakobi Myers is averaging. Would you put Myers in the same tier as Brown? Of course not. Then you shouldn't have Brown in the same tier as any of the other names on this list. 

In other words, no player drafted as a WR1 next year has a bigger bust risk than Brown. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

2 targets per game fewer than Brown would be 5.3. That's what Jakobi Myers is averaging. Would you put Myers in the same tier as Brown? Of course not. Then you shouldn't have Brown in the same tier as any of the other names on this list.

Of course not, bc Meyers isn't a big play guy with demonstrated efficiency like AJB. If they were even remotely comparable players, then this would be a reasonable comp.

If you remove DK's 15 target game, he averages 7.5 targets (8 with it). Nowhere near the elite top tier WRs either, yet I don't hear people worry about him. These last few weeks you've seen what can happen when these guys don't break a big one, but that risk exists with everyone except the elite tier.

I don't know what the Titans will do next year, but safe to say that there's a possibility he gets more targets and only an injury would lead to him having less in 2021.

Regardless, plenty of options at WR if you don't care for him.

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32 minutes ago, trilly said:

Of course not, bc Meyers isn't a big play guy with demonstrated efficiency like AJB. If they were even remotely comparable players, then this would be a reasonable comp.

If you remove DK's 15 target game, he averages 7.5 targets (8 with it). Nowhere near the elite top tier WRs either, yet I don't hear people worry about him. These last few weeks you've seen what can happen when these guys don't break a big one, but that risk exists with everyone except the elite tier.

I don't know what the Titans will do next year, but safe to say that there's a possibility he gets more targets and only an injury would lead to him having less in 2021.

Regardless, plenty of options at WR if you don't care for him.

AJ has zero games of double digit targets all season. That's just not WR1 volume.

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4 hours ago, ajs723 said:

AJ has zero games of double digit targets all season. That's just not WR1 volume.


we get it dude, you love target hogs. Nothing wrong with that.  You can take diontae and kupp and others of us will take aj and we will see where things shake out. I only say this cause we’re all gonna repeat these same arguments over and over about AJ till the draft, I think both sides have merit, but I just can’t resist this player personally and will probably be targeting him.

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5 hours ago, cheezor42 said:


we get it dude, you love target hogs. Nothing wrong with that.  You can take diontae and kupp and others of us will take aj and we will see where things shake out. I only say this cause we’re all gonna repeat these same arguments over and over about AJ till the draft, I think both sides have merit, but I just can’t resist this player personally and will probably be targeting him.

Here's the issue though, it's not just that he isn't a target "hog", he has low targets for a WR in Rd 3, that's a big difference... And the fact those low targets are coming from a dink and dunk QB compound the problem even more.

In fantasy you often invest in offensive schemes/situations as much as you do the talent of a player.

I mean just look at Stefon Diggs, perfect example. Look at what they did with the offensive scheme and his role last year in Minnesota and look at his scheme and role this season. Did Diggs himself get any better as a player? Or did his scheme and situation change? Look how much of an impact that had on his production.

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