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6 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Here's the issue though, it's not just that he isn't a target "hog", he has low targets for a WR in Rd 3, that's a big difference... And the fact those low targets are coming from a dink and dunk QB compound the problem even more.

In fantasy you often invest in offensive schemes/situations as much as you do the talent of a player.

I mean just look at Stefon Diggs, perfect example. Look at what they did with the offensive scheme and his role last year in Minnesota and look at his scheme and role this season. Did Diggs himself get any better as a player? Or did his scheme and situation change? Look how much of an impact that had on his production.


Again you’re basically restating the same case already made since before this season regarding Brown from you and others.  I get the other side of the argument, obviously there are better situations out there, but I’m betting we saw his floor this year, barring significant injury, and we haven’t seen his upside yet.  Chances are favorable that: 1. He takes that 3rd year leap as a professional, 2. The Titans balance their offense out after being league last in pass attempts 3. They lose Jonnu &/or Davis next year.  4. He won’t be suffering from a chronic season-long injury.

all of these things are accretive for his prospects, I don’t really see anything on the flip side that indicates he would take a step back from his current fantastic production 

 

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AJ Brown has a message for you fantasy owners:  

He should definitely see a urologist in that case.

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Let’s not forget the all-importan “fun factor”. Fewer WRs are more fun/exciting to own than AJ Brown and that matters to me, a lot actually. 

I’d rather have a WR like AJ, DK, etc who are explosive, exciting, and productive despite fewer targets, than a receiver whose production comes from being peppered with a bunch of low value targets with the occasional TD. 
 

Even if the possession-type hog target WR outscores AJ by a few points come season’s end, AJ will have been far more fun to own, and that’s worth sacrificing a few points to me. If it turned out this season that Dionte Johnson actually outscored AJ by a few points, I still would’ve rather had AJ on my team.

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1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

I’d feel pretty comfortable putting him at 76-1200-13 next season. 

You feel pretty comfortable saying that AJ Brown will have one of the most prolific 2 season TD stretches in NFL history.

Okay... 

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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Let’s not forget the all-importan “fun factor”. Fewer WRs are more fun/exciting to own than AJ Brown and that matters to me, a lot actually. 

I’d rather have a WR like AJ, DK, etc who are explosive, exciting, and productive despite fewer targets, than a receiver whose production comes from being peppered with a bunch of low value targets with the occasional TD. 
 

Even if the possession-type hog target WR outscores AJ by a few points come season’s end, AJ will have been far more fun to own, and that’s worth sacrificing a few points to me. If it turned out this season that Dionte Johnson actually outscored AJ by a few points, I still would’ve rather had AJ on my team.

This is a fair point. If you're playing fantasy for fun, feel free to own guys like this with off the charts "fun factor" value. If you're playing to win, then stay the hell away from these guys who are overvalued specifically because they are so much fun to watch. 

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18 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

You feel pretty comfortable saying that AJ Brown will have one of the most prolific 2 season TD stretches in NFL history.

Okay... 


he had 8 his rookie year which basically didn’t get started till Tanny took over midway through, and he has 10 so far this year.  13 TDs is a **** ton of TD for a WR but why should he not get at least another 10? 

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43 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

This is a fair point. If you're playing fantasy for fun, feel free to own guys like this with off the charts "fun factor" value. If you're playing to win, then stay the hell away from these guys who are overvalued specifically because they are so much fun to watch. 

What an awful take. Plenty of fantasy championships were won with AJ Brown in the lineup, including mine. 
 

You’re acting like AJ Brown is somehow a liability, despite his having a fantastic season.

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11 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


he had 8 his rookie year which basically didn’t get started till Tanny took over midway through, and he has 10 so far this year.  13 TDs is a **** ton of TD for a WR but why should he not get at least another 10? 

Again, because TDs for WRs are wildly unpredictable. Players vacillate between double digit TDs and 5 or 6 TDs all the time. Having a big TD number one season does not predict big future numbers.

Mike Williams had 43 receptions at 15.4 yards per catch in 2018 and scored 10 TDs. This year, he had 42 receptions at the exact same 15.4 yards per catch, and scored 4 TDs. In 2019, he had a career best 49 receptions at a staggering 20+ yards per catch, and only scored 2 TDs.

Brown could put up identical numbers across the board, or even better, and end up scoring 5 TDs and it wouldn't be shocking at all. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

What an awful take. Plenty of fantasy championships were won with AJ Brown in the lineup, including mine. 
 

You’re acting like AJ Brown is somehow a liability, despite his having a fantastic season.

He's a "liability" because he's more likely to bust and has a lower floor than any other WR. 

Not denying he's awesome, or that he had a great season. But he's statistically more likely to be a boom/bust WR2 than an elite WR1 next season. 

Drafting Brown with the expectation that he'll repeat his torrid scoring pace would be like having drafted Aaron Jones at 1.02 overall this year and expecting him to score over 15 TDs again.

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

He's a "liability" because he's more likely to bust and has a lower floor than any other WR. 

Not denying he's awesome, or that he had a great season. But he's statistically more likely to be a boom/bust WR2 than an elite WR1 next season. 

Drafting Brown with the expectation that he'll repeat his torrid scoring pace would be like having drafted Aaron Jones at 1.02 overall this year and expecting him to score over 15 TDs again.


 

 

10 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Again, because TDs for WRs are wildly unpredictable. Players vacillate between double digit TDs and 5 or 6 TDs all the time. Having a big TD number one season does not predict big future numbers.

Mike Williams had 43 receptions at 15.4 yards per catch in 2018 and scored 10 TDs. This year, he had 42 receptions at the exact same 15.4 yards per catch, and scored 4 TDs. In 2019, he had a career best 49 receptions at a staggering 20+ yards per catch, and only scored 2 TDs.

Brown could put up identical numbers across the board, or even better, and end up scoring 5 TDs and it wouldn't be shocking at all. 

 


I totally disagree with this take unsurprisingly. You’re essentially looking at this from too much of a macro perspective and parsing out generalities about touchdown predictability and not looking at browns track record, usage, talent, or the plethora of factors going in his favor next year that could make him a massive breakout candidate.  Again, we just saw his floor. He simply can’t get less targets than he did this year, it’s not possible.  And he still was top 10 in WR PPG.  I’ll eat crow if he is healthy next year and has a worse year than this one.

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3 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


 

 


I totally disagree with this take unsurprisingly. You’re essentially looking at this from too much of a macro perspective and parsing out generalities about touchdown predictability and not looking at browns track record, usage, talent, or the plethora of factors going in his favor next year that could make him a massive breakout candidate.  Again, we just saw his floor. He simply can’t get less targets than he did this year, it’s not possible.  And he still was top 10 in WR PPG.  I’ll eat crow if he is healthy next year and has a worse year than this one.

This is your winning argument, and indeed, the argument in favor of Brown. His upside is top 3 overall WR. If he gets an increase in target volume, he could be a 90/1300/12 

To this point, I just disagree that he has a chance to see this type of volume increase. Banking on him to repeat his scoring production on his paltry target total is a dangerous proposition, no matter how great he is. 

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I was looking around online and yahoo came out with an early 2021 fantasy football rankings and they have AJB at pick 22. I like him a lot but not at that price. If you have time and really look at that list there’s so many better value plays to be had. They got Dionte at pick 38, they have Julio at pick 43, they have Zeke at pick 25 lol. I mean when you look at the players being drafted after him his value is pretty much gone at pick 22. Again these are early rankings and can change but it’s good to see the players that are ranked around him and there’s just so many good options around that range. Winning a fantasy football championship is all about getting the best return on your investment and pick 22 in my opinion for me isn’t worth the risk. But I think as the year gets closer he is going to drop further down on that list.

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12 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

I was looking around online and yahoo came out with an early 2021 fantasy football rankings and they have AJB at pick 22. I like him a lot but not at that price. If you have time and really look at that list there’s so many better value plays to be had. They got Dionte at pick 38, they have Julio at pick 43, they have Zeke at pick 25 lol. I mean when you look at the players being drafted after him his value is pretty much gone at pick 22. Again these are early rankings and can change but it’s good to see the players that are ranked around him and there’s just so many good options around that range. Winning a fantasy football championship is all about getting the best return on your investment and pick 22 in my opinion for me isn’t worth the risk. But I think as the year gets closer he is going to drop further down on that list.

The mistake you’re making is thinking you can accurately assign “value” to players beforehand. How can you possibly know at this point that player X ranked 24th is a “better value” than player Y ranked 22nd? Value can only be accurately assessed after the numbers come in, not before. Preseason rankings are based on expectations, projections, and gut feelings. 
 

After week 16, among RB/WR/TE AJ Brown finished at #20 in my league with pretty standard scoring. Even having missed two games. Where was he ranked before the 2020 season began? Was it accurate? Was Brown a good value pick in 2020? He could actually return better value than pick 22 next season. Or, you may end up being right and he won’t. Or, pick 22 could be just about right when all is said and done. 
 

The point is, we can’t possibly look at preseason rankings and accurately assess “value” because the return on investment is a complete unknown. 
 


 

 

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With regard to my post above, obviously we can safely say that drafting Kamara in round 15 represents excellent projected value. Just as we can safely say that drafting Sony Michel #1 overall represents horrible value.


But when it comes to comparing the draft value of players in a relative range it’s a complete guessing game in which the answer won’t be known until the season plays out. And even then, determining which player was actually the better draft value is a complicated equation combining mathematical statistical analysis with personal drafting preference and team construction. Whether AJ Brown at 22 is a better or worse “value” than Dionte Johnson at 38 is a question containing so many variables and unknowns that it’s really a fruitless debate at this time. A case can easily be made for, and against, each players current draft value, with neither being “right”. Once 2021 is underway we’ll start to have a better idea of which player was the better draft value. By season’s end, the answer may be clear, though likely still debatable.

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42 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

With regard to my post above, obviously we can safely say that drafting Kamara in round 15 represents excellent projected value. Just as we can safely say that drafting Sony Michel #1 overall represents horrible value.


But when it comes to comparing the draft value of players in a relative range it’s a complete guessing game in which the answer won’t be known until the season plays out. And even then, determining which player was actually the better draft value is a complicated equation combining mathematical statistical analysis with personal drafting preference and team construction. Whether AJ Brown at 22 is a better or worse “value” than Dionte Johnson at 38 is a question containing so many variables and unknowns that it’s really a fruitless debate at this time. A case can easily be made for, and against, each players current draft value, with neither being “right”. Once 2021 is underway we’ll start to have a better idea of which player was the better draft value. By season’s end, the answer may be clear, though likely still debatable.

Yeah but we’re all just making educated guesses here. Just like when we go back and forth about starting which players every week. We don’t know what’s going to happen that game till the end. But we are all making an educated guess to what will happen. Ranking guys is no different. When I see someone like Zeke ranked at 25 and AJB ranked at 22. Even though I don’t know for certain what’s going to happen next year. To me it’s a no brainer to roll the dice on Zeke because he should return better value based on his history.

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3 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

Yeah but we’re all just making educated guesses here. Just like when we go back and forth about starting which players every week. We don’t know what’s going to happen that game till the end. But we are all making an educated guess to what will happen. Ranking guys is no different. When I see someone like Zeke ranked at 25 and AJB ranked at 22. Even though I don’t know for certain what’s going to happen next year. To me it’s a no brainer to roll the dice on Zeke because he should return better value based on his history.

Fair enough, I get where you’re coming from. I suppose debating a player’s “draft position value” is really just another (more complicated) way of debating rankings, by introducing more complicated variables, unknowns, and personal draft strategies/preferences.

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AJB's second career 10+ target game. Small sample size, but he averages 9 rec, 132 yards, and 1 TD in such games.

He'll finish this year averaging 7.5 targets per game. Would have been a 121 target 16-game pace. 

If Corey Davis happens to leave this off-season, I will not let this guy be drafted by any other team in my league. The idea of a 150ish target season like the other elite guys (and Dionte Johnson lol) get is too salivating to pass up.

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1 minute ago, USWAY said:

AJB's second career 10+ target game. Small sample size, but he averages 9 rec, 132 yards, and 1 TD in such games.

He'll finish this year averaging 7.5 targets per game. Would have been a 121 target 16-game pace. 

If Corey Davis happens to leave this off-season, I will not let this guy be drafted by any other team in my league. The idea of a 150ish target season like the other elite guys (and Dionte Johnson lol) get is too salivating to pass up.


but but! Low volume offense! Tanny bad! Derrick Henry’s team! TD regression! Too efficient! No way he gets more targets! I would pass

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3 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


but but! Low volume offense! Tanny bad! Derrick Henry’s team! TD regression! Too efficient! No way he gets more targets! I would pass

 

But all of these things are true and have proven true over the whole year.  As mentioned in the guy you are quoting..AJ is averaging 7.5 targets for the year.  That's not elite level volume. 

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2 minutes ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

 

But all of these things are true and have proven true over the whole year.  As mentioned in the guy you are quoting..AJ is averaging 7.5 targets for the year.  That's not elite level volume. 

two seasons in a row of "this guy can't possibly keep being this productive with this few targets". yet--here we are. How many seasons does he have to do it before it's a trend and not just a fluke?

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8 minutes ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

 

But all of these things are true and have proven true over the whole year.  As mentioned in the guy you are quoting..AJ is averaging 7.5 targets for the year.  That's not elite level volume. 


Ok don’t draft him next year then

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3 minutes ago, yossarian said:

two seasons in a row of "this guy can't possibly keep being this productive with this few targets". yet--here we are. How many seasons does he have to do it before it's a trend and not just a fluke?

 

Listen, I love me some AJ.  I drafted him as a rookie in my dynasty.  I think dude is uber talented and could be the Top WR in the league with the right system. 

This year in 14 games he went 60 for 924 in 14 games.  That would project out to 68 for 1,056.  I'm not exactly jumping for joy at that stat-line over the course of a season.  Where AJ makes his money to this point is the TDs and his YAC TDs are just ridiculous.   

I'm curious to see tomorrow where he ends up in my league in PPR but as of a week or two ago he was I think WR16 or WR18. 

Dude is a baller, stud, beast but yes he is limited in the offense the way it's been and one amazing game today doesn't change that. 

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