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AJ Brown has a message for you fantasy owners:  

He should definitely see a urologist in that case.

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There's a big difference for him in PPR vs. standard leagues, no question he is much less valuable in PPR - all of my commentary is based on standard scoring.

I don't think anyone in here pro-AJB is ignoring the middling volume, but the best way to earn more volume? Crush it when you get those opportunities, which he has done (the opposite of Diontae). I think a floor for him across a healthy 16 game season is the 1,000/8 TD range, and the upside is top 3 - more likely, he ends up a mid-range WR1.

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2 minutes ago, trilly said:

There's a big difference for him in PPR vs. standard leagues, no question he is much less valuable in PPR - all of my commentary is based on standard scoring.

I don't think anyone in here pro-AJB is ignoring the middling volume, but the best way to earn more volume? Crush it when you get those opportunities, which he has done (the opposite of Diontae). I think a floor for him across a healthy 16 game season is the 1,000/8 TD range, and the upside is top 3 - more likely, he ends up a mid-range WR1.

 

Fair enough on the standard v PPR. 

Fingers crossed that next year the volume matches the success!  If he could get consistent 8-12 targets he's easily a Top 3 WR. 

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He's actually a perfect example of why I prefer standard scoring, bc it's silly to compare a player of his caliber to someone like Diontae, which only happens when you start talking about PRR scoring. But that's a whole different discussion...

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6 minutes ago, trilly said:

He's actually a perfect example of why I prefer standard scoring, bc it's silly to compare a player of his caliber to someone like Diontae, which only happens when you start talking about PRR scoring. But that's a whole different discussion...

Remember that half PPR leagues exist too, that could give you a happy medium.  I prefer 0.25 PPR the most, but everyone else in the 0.25 PPR leagues I had wanted to move to half PPR.

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Waits for fantasy season to end and throws up his best game of the year...

I could have used this when he put me in a hole to start the year or when i scratched and clawed my way to a championship only for him and DK to turtle and lay duds.

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12 hours ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

 

Listen, I love me some AJ.  I drafted him as a rookie in my dynasty.  I think dude is uber talented and could be the Top WR in the league with the right system. 

This year in 14 games he went 60 for 924 in 14 games.  That would project out to 68 for 1,056.  I'm not exactly jumping for joy at that stat-line over the course of a season.  Where AJ makes his money to this point is the TDs and his YAC TDs are just ridiculous.   

I'm curious to see tomorrow where he ends up in my league in PPR but as of a week or two ago he was I think WR16 or WR18. 

Dude is a baller, stud, beast but yes he is limited in the offense the way it's been and one amazing game today doesn't change that. 

You failed to include this game in his 14 games. He went 70/1075/11. 

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2 hours ago, HK-47 said:

You failed to include this game in his 14 games. He went 70/1075/11. 

The only impressive number there is the TDs. 

75/1100/6 is back end WR2 numbers.

That's almost exactly what Curtis Samuel put up this year (77/1051/5).

Again, there are 0 (Zero!) NFL WRs with an active streak of consecutive double digit TD seasons.

TDs are not a given for anyone. If he doesn't basically lead the league in TDs next year, he'll be a bad value at his inflated price. That's a bad bet. 

 

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22 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

Corey Davis is a free agent.

 

Wether TEN throw money at him is questionable. AJ could have much more targets next year pending on what they do with Davis.

It's possible. But even if he leaves, it's not like the Titans are going to start AJ Brown and nobody across from him. There are plenty of FA WRs they could add, or they could even draft one. It's hard to imagine Brown is going to see that meaningful target volume increase in this offense, as long as the coach, QB, and RB all remain on the team. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

The only impressive number there is the TDs. 

75/1100/6 is back end WR2 numbers.

That's almost exactly what Curtis Samuel put up this year (77/1051/5).

Again, there are 0 (Zero!) NFL WRs with an active streak of consecutive double digit TD seasons.

TDs are not a given for anyone. If he doesn't basically lead the league in TDs next year, he'll be a bad value at his inflated price. That's a bad bet. 

 

 

Let's cut everyone's TD totals in half and see how their stat lines look, questionable logic here.

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Let me get this straight. He put up 1075/11 while missing 2.5 games early in the season... and somehow we're (again) arguing that he won't be a WR1 in 2021? Because "TDs are flukey"? LOL. He was on pace for ~120 targets, and with his efficiency that's plenty to put him in the highest echelon of WRs. Mid-tier WR1 with top 5 potential.

 

Not to mention - the dude is a bonafide stud, and Vrabel trusts him. His role in the offense continues to grow, and he's *the guy* in clutch situations. Personally I'd argue that Corey Davis leaving next year would have little to no impact to his production - any increase in targets will likely be offset by a decrease in quality of targets. CD is taking a lot of heat off AJ as defenses have to respect him as well. Folks forget that having a good WR on the opposite side can actually be a net positive.

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42 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

Let's cut everyone's TD totals in half and see how their stat lines look, questionable logic here.

Ignoring the fact that outlier totals are the ones where regression comes into play (which is the point of the AJ Brown TD concern), okay, let's do it. Let's look at other WR1s and see how they would do without a big TD season. 

Adams - 115 receptions. 1374 yards. Don't care how many TDs he scores. He's obviously a stud. Duh. 

Hill - 87 receptions 1276 yards. Missed a game and a half. Stud no matter what. TDs are gravy. 

Diggs - 127 receptions. 1535 yards. He could score 2 TDs and be a stud with those numbers. 

Hopkins - 115 recpetions, 1407 yards. He only had 6 TDs this year. Didn't matter. Stud. 

Ridley - 90 receptions 1374. Missed a game. 9 TDs this year. Stud with 4 or 5. 

Jefferson  - 88 receptions 1400 yards. Barely played first two weeks. Absolute stud regardless of TDs. 

Metcalf - 83 for 1303. Had a few stinker games, but should be a stud even with 5 or 6 TDs. 

ARob - 102 receptions for 1250 yards. Only had 6 TDs. Stud regardless of TD total. 

Allen - 100 receptions, 992 yards. Missed two games. Bonafide mega stud regardless of TDs. 

AJ Brown - 70 receptions for 1075 yards.... Literally only a stud with TDs. 

 

Even someone like Amari Cooper, who played several weeks without an NFL QB put up 92 receptions and 1128 yards. He only scored 5 TDs and was right on the doorstep of WR1 numbers.

Brown will be drafted among that group of WRs, but he does not belong in it (unless you are comfortable assuming he's going to be near the lead league in TDs again). 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Allen - 100 receptions, 992 yards. Missed two games. Bonafide mega stud regardless of TDs. 

AJ Brown - 70 receptions for 1075 yards.... Literally only a stud with TDs. 

You must be talking PPR, bc saying Allen had 992 yards with two missed game and is a stud regardless of TDs doesn't jive with AJB putting up 1075 in the same number of games and only being a stud with TDs.

I don't look at PPR numbers at all, but I would guess that AJB is an WR2 in PPR format. Is that really what all your hate on AJB is based on?

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

The only impressive number there is the TDs. 

75/1100/6 is back end WR2 numbers.

That's almost exactly what Curtis Samuel put up this year (77/1051/5).

Again, there are 0 (Zero!) NFL WRs with an active streak of consecutive double digit TD seasons.

TDs are not a given for anyone. If he doesn't basically lead the league in TDs next year, he'll be a bad value at his inflated price. That's a bad bet. 

 

We get it you don’t like him...he was still wr12 in ppr despite missing 2 games. I was simply correcting the guy citing the wrong stats.

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1 minute ago, trilly said:

You must be talking PPR, bc saying Allen had 992 yards with two missed game and is a stud regardless of TDs doesn't jive with AJB putting up 1075 in the same number of games and only being a stud with TDs.

I don't look at PPR numbers at all, but I would guess that AJB is an WR2 in PPR format. Is that really what all your hate on AJB is based on?

Yes, I am. AJ was a WR1 in PPR. He will be drafted as a WR1 in PPR next year. He shouldn't be. That's the point I'm making. 

Don't know anything about standard, because I only play PPR. 

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Just now, HK-47 said:

Lol ok man he was still wr12 in ppr despite missing 2 games. 

Because of his unsunstainably high TD rate. That's my point. He's scoring a TD every 9.5 targets. 

If you want an idea of how unsustainable that rate is, at that scoring rate, Larry Fitzgerald would have roughly 250 TDs in his career. Despite being an elite first ballot hall of fame WR, he only has 121. Julio Jones would have 140. He has 60. 

I mean, maybe AJ Brown will prove to be exponentially better and more efficient than Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones, but I'm not betting on it.

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15 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Because of his unsunstainably high TD rate. That's my point. He's scoring a TD every 9.5 targets. 

If you want an idea of how unsustainable that rate is, at that scoring rate, Larry Fitzgerald would have roughly 250 TDs in his career. Despite being an elite first ballot hall of fame WR, he only has 121. Julio Jones would have 140. He has 60. 

I mean, maybe AJ Brown will prove to be exponentially better and more efficient than Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones, but I'm not betting on it.

I didn’t even say anything in my post dude all I did was post the correct stats. But for some reason you took that as an invite to come hard with td regression...which I am aware of, but thanks. One thing is though you said DK should be a stud even with td regression. So I guess half a target per game more, 0.1 more receptions, and 4.7 more yards moves the needle drastically for you. Seems like you have a bias as it’s clear there isn’t much difference here. I’m done.

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, HK-47 said:

I didn’t even say anything in my post dude all I did was post the correct stats. But for some reason you took that as an invite to come hard with td regression...which I am aware of, but thanks. One thing is though you said DK should be a stud even with td regression. So I guess half a target per game more, 0.1 more receptions, and 6.3 more yards moves the needle drastically for you. Seems like you have a bias as it’s clear there isn’t much difference here. I’m done.

 

 

 

It's a good point on Metcalf. He is averaging more targets, receptions, and yards per game than AJ, but all are by small margins. For that reason, I'd slightly prefer Metcalf to Brown, but those two are extremely close. He probably doesn't belong on the list either.

The other 8 or 9 guys I listed are clear WR1s. Metcalf and Brown are both much riskier. 

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4 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Because of his unsunstainably high TD rate. That's my point. He's scoring a TD every 9.5 targets. 

If you want an idea of how unsustainable that rate is, at that scoring rate, Larry Fitzgerald would have roughly 250 TDs in his career. Despite being an elite first ballot hall of fame WR, he only has 121. Julio Jones would have 140. He has 60. 

I mean, maybe AJ Brown will prove to be exponentially better and more efficient than Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones, but I'm not betting on it.

How are you quantifying/factoring in Brown’s expected improvement in year 3? Or are you thinking his best days are behind him at 23 years old? 

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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

How are you quantifying/factoring in Brown’s expected improvement in year 3? Or are you thinking his best days are behind him at 23 years old? 

He'll likely get better, but he's already one of the best WRs in all of football. Talent isn't the problem, volume is. He's not going to get enough volume for WR1 production to be a realistic expectation. I don't know why that's so hard to for people to accept. I'm not bashing Brown. Far from it. I'm just saying, if you're banking on Brown scoring a dozen TDs on less 110 targets, you're going to lose that bet more often than not.

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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

How are you quantifying/factoring in Brown’s expected improvement in year 3? Or are you thinking his best days are behind him at 23 years old? 


Yea, I honestly don't know how much room there is for Brown to grow...I think he's that good.  As far as I know he doesn't have issues with drops, he runs good routes, he can make the tough catch.  There's always things everyone can get better at, but I think he is about as good as it gets right now. 

I also agree with @ajs723 that there are a lot of questions about his usage and it's really impossible to bank on him scoring TDs at the rate he did consistently. 

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I get those concerns, but if he does it next year, would that change your mind at all? What about a 4th year? 5th? At some point, his production is a reflection of a) his ability and b) the team scheming to get him the ball in the red zone (def happened this year, not so much last year). Plenty of players have sustained high TD rates because of the quality of their volume, not just the quantity. 

Arthur Smith is slated to get a number of HC interviewing opportunities - who knows what happens there but as many have stated earlier, he certainly won't be getting less looks (barring injury) than this year. So from a volume perspective, the outlook is either the same or better.

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

He'll likely get better, but he's already one of the best WRs in all of football. Talent isn't the problem, volume is. He's not going to get enough volume for WR1 production to be a realistic expectation. I don't know why that's so hard to for people to accept. I'm not bashing Brown. Far from it. I'm just saying, if you're banking on Brown scoring a dozen TDs on less 110 targets, you're going to lose that bet more often than not.

 

Not if he's an efficiency outlier like a Tyreek Hill/Kamara. 

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