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4 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Not if he's an efficiency outlier like a Tyreek Hill/Kamara. 


hes clearly an efficiency outlier at this point. Ignoring that is just denial. He’s an efficiency outlier with target upside.  Sign me up.  

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AJ Brown has a message for you fantasy owners:  

He should definitely see a urologist in that case.

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2 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Not if he's an efficiency outlier like a Tyreek Hill/Kamara. 

There are so many things to unpack here.

Hill is on one of the most pass happy offenses in league history, playing with a guy who's on pace to be in the conversation for greatest QB of all time. STILL, in 3 of Hill's 5 seasons he has 7 TDs or fewer. 

Kamara is a RB who gets 260 touches per year. He's not an efficiency outlier, he's one of the most heavily used players in the league. Oh, and he's also playing with a Hall of Fame QB, and an innovative coach who has built an entire offense around Kamara. I get that Kamara has been a scoring machine, but still, last year he only had 6 total TDs.

Most importantly, these comps just don't work. Again, you're talking about up-tempo, pass happy offenses, with HoF QBs, built around the talents of these particular superstars. In Tennessee, it's Ryan Tannehill, in a grind it out offense built around Derrick Henry. Apples and oranges, to say the least. 

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13 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

There are so many things to unpack here.

Hill is on one of the most pass happy offenses in league history, playing with a guy who's on pace to be in the conversation for greatest QB of all time. STILL, in 3 of Hill's 5 seasons he has 7 TDs or fewer. 

Kamara is a RB who gets 260 touches per year. He's not an efficiency outlier, he's one of the most heavily used players in the league. Oh, and he's also playing with a Hall of Fame QB, and an innovative coach who has built an entire offense around Kamara. I get that Kamara has been a scoring machine, but still, last year he only had 6 total TDs.

Most importantly, these comps just don't work. Again, you're talking about up-tempo, pass happy offenses, with HoF QBs, built around the talents of these particular superstars. In Tennessee, it's Ryan Tannehill, in a grind it out offense built around Derrick Henry. Apples and oranges, to say the least. 

 

How is Hill not a good comp? In his first two seasons (Pre-Mahomes) he was a WR1 despite only getting 6 targets a game.

Kamara has always been an RB1 despite getting a full workload.

Two guys who dont need elite volume to put up elite numbers. 

And obviously Tannehill isnt on the same planet as a Mahomes or Brees but how long are people going to doubt an offense that has averaged almost 31 points a game since he took over as the Titans starter?

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5 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

How is Hill not a good comp? In his first two seasons (Pre-Mahomes) he was a WR1 despite only getting 6 targets a game.

Kamara has always been an RB1 despite getting a full workload.

Two guys who dont need elite volume to put up elite numbers. 

And obviously Tannehill isnt on the same planet as a Mahomes or Brees but how long are people going to doubt an offense that has averaged almost 31 points a game since he took over as the Titans starter?

How in God's name does Kamara not get elite volume. He's near the league lead in touches every year. He was top 5 in touches per game this year. Super duper duper high volume player. Like 270-280 touches every year. ???

Hill had 6 and 7 TDs his first two years.

His second year is a solid comp for Brown. 75 catches, 1100 yards, 7 TDs. He was indeed WR9 that year, but it was a crazy down year for WRs. Those same numbers this year would have been WR15.

If you want to draft Brown as the WR15 next year, that's fine, but you'll have to draft him top 10, maybe top 8. No thanks.

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On 1/5/2021 at 1:01 AM, ajs723 said:

How in God's name does Kamara not get elite volume. He's near the league lead in touches every year. He was top 5 in touches per game this year. Super duper duper high volume player. Like 270-280 touches every year. ???

Hill had 6 and 7 TDs his first two years.

His second year is a solid comp for Brown. 75 catches, 1100 yards, 7 TDs. He was indeed WR9 that year, but it was a crazy down year for WRs. Those same numbers this year would have been WR15.

If you want to draft Brown as the WR15 next year, that's fine, but you'll have to draft him top 10, maybe top 8. No thanks.

Maybe he's talking about carries vs touches for Kamara. Even when you do look at touches, he averages 100 less touches than the touch leader every year. I have no dog in this fight, but I can see where he's coming from when talking about efficiency.

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1 hour ago, wonderbread said:

Maybe he's talking about carries vs touches for Kamara. Even when you do look at touches, he averages 100 less touches than the touch leader every year. I have no dog in this fight, but I can see where he's coming from when talking about efficiency.

I mean, he plays at about a 300 touch pace every single year. If someone like CMC or Henry approaches 400 touches, good for them. But that doesn't make a 300 touch volume any less elite. 

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So Arthur Smith has gone to Atlanta. Do we think this changes amything for the Tennessee offense? It's worth noting, the Derrick Henry offensive identity was first forged at the end of 2018 when Matt LaFleur was still the OC so this set up could very well be Vrabel driven.

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Its purely possible that a new OC actually uses AJ more I guess.  He's a clear top talent, so he's especially worth it if the ADP seems low because of people worried about Smith leaving.     There's always the chance things don't work out, but I think he's gonna be fine

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21 hours ago, MurderInc said:

Current ADP's have him in the early fourth round. I would take A.J. in the third round with no hesitation, so I will be owning him a lot next year. 

Where are you seeing this? The only ADPs I can find are on fantasy pros and fantasy calculator, but those are showing early 4th round ADPs from 2020.

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I guess this is a stupid question given Goodell’s complete lack of care in this department, but how do so many teams routinely get away with not reporting these serious injuries - requiring surgery in many cases - on their weekly injury reports?!

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20 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I guess this is a stupid question given Goodell’s complete lack of care in this department, but how do so many teams routinely get away with not reporting these serious injuries - requiring surgery in many cases - on their weekly injury reports?!

I am confused as well lol, I feel like this is a common occurrence. 

6 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:

Absolute savage.  Playing through severe injuries this year and still balled out. RIP to those who pass on him in the 3rd next year

I’m all for taking him top 25. No Corey Davis and fully healthy, good lord. 

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2 hours ago, cheezor42 said:

Absolute savage.  Playing through severe injuries this year and still balled out. RIP to those who pass on him in the 3rd next year

Enjoy 110 targets from your early 3rd round pick. Too risky for my blood. 

He'll get drafted in the same range as MT, who will get at least 50 more targets. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Enjoy 110 targets from your early 3rd round pick. Too risky for my blood. 

He'll get drafted in the same range as MT, who will get at least 50 more targets. 

How is AJ more riskier than MT given what kind of season we saw from MT?

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18 minutes ago, Evincar said:

How is AJ more riskier than MT given what kind of season we saw from MT?

MT targets

2016 - 121 (15 games)

2017 - 149

2018 - 147

2019 - 185

2020 55 (in 7 games)

 

AJ targets

2019 -84

2020 - 106 (14 games)

 

Best case scenario for Brown, he will get around 110-115 targets, and MT will cruise to 140-150.

Taking Brown over MT in redraft is one of the most indefensible takes I've seen in a while, and many people will do it. 

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5 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

MT targets

2016 - 121 (15 games)

2017 - 149

2018 - 147

2019 - 185

2020 55 (in 7 games)

 

AJ targets

2019 -84

2020 - 106 (14 games)

 

Best case scenario for Brown, he will get around 110-115 targets, and MT will cruise to 140-150.

Taking Brown over MT in redraft is one of the most indefensible takes I've seen in a while, and many people will do it. 

Best case is 115 targets? He had 106 in 14 games despite not being close to 100% healthy. Not to mention there could be vacated targets from Corey Davis and/or Jonnu Smith leaving in free agency.

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2 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Best case is 115 targets? He had 106 in 14 games despite not being close to 100% healthy. Not to mention there could be vacated targets from Corey Davis and/or Jonnu Smith leaving in free agency.

It's not like they're going to line up 9 on 11. If Davis and Jonnu leave (Jonnu and his 4 targets per game aren't even really relevant), they will be replaced. We know what AJ's role is. He's talented as hell, but he's getting 7-8 targets per game on this team. 

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12 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

It's not like they're going to line up 9 on 11. If Davis and Jonnu leave (Jonnu and his 4 targets per game aren't even really relevant), they will be replaced. We know what AJ's role is. He's talented as hell, but he's getting 7-8 targets per game on this team. 

You’re all but guaranteeing in the MT thread that he wont skip a beat with Taysom Hill at QB possibly,  meanwhile in here you put Browns ceiling meant for a hobbit  the only possible improvement is minimal for him according to you he’s going to have a 4 target increase next year? Michael Thomas 4 game sample size with Taysom Hill high end WR 1 easily book it... AJ Brown two consecutive seasons of 10+ tds naw hell regress to 6 touchdowns more likely than get 10+ again. Respectfully you seem swell but some of your takes in this thread are baffling. I’m sure the fellas who quote stuff from six months ago will be all over you in this thread next year lol..

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

It's not like they're going to line up 9 on 11. If Davis and Jonnu leave (Jonnu and his 4 targets per game aren't even really relevant), they will be replaced. We know what AJ's role is. He's talented as hell, but he's getting 7-8 targets per game on this team. 

I dont see why his targets wont increase especially with more vacated targets, one of them being the #2 WR. I mean I dont expect 150 but 125-135 is pretty reasonable. Is 20-25 less targets make taking AJ over MT indefensible? 

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39 minutes ago, CroNY said:

You’re all but guaranteeing in the MT thread that he wont skip a beat with Taysom Hill at QB possibly,  meanwhile in here you put Browns ceiling meant for a hobbit  the only possible improvement is minimal for him according to you he’s going to have a 4 target increase next year? Michael Thomas 4 game sample size with Taysom Hill high end WR 1 easily book it... AJ Brown two consecutive seasons of 10+ tds naw hell regress to 6 touchdowns more likely than get 10+ again. Respectfully you seem swell but some of your takes in this thread are baffling. I’m sure the fellas who quote stuff from six months ago will be all over you in this thread next year lol..


We should give it a rest the guy has been singing the same tune in here egging folks on with the same reductionist argument over and over again lol.  

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9 hours ago, CroNY said:

You’re all but guaranteeing in the MT thread that he wont skip a beat with Taysom Hill at QB possibly,  meanwhile in here you put Browns ceiling meant for a hobbit  the only possible improvement is minimal for him according to you he’s going to have a 4 target increase next year? Michael Thomas 4 game sample size with Taysom Hill high end WR 1 easily book it... AJ Brown two consecutive seasons of 10+ tds naw hell regress to 6 touchdowns more likely than get 10+ again. Respectfully you seem swell but some of your takes in this thread are baffling. I’m sure the fellas who quote stuff from six months ago will be all over you in this thread next year lol..

No one can be sure of anything in projecting fantasy outlooks. If I'm wrong, I'll take the beating, lol. 

For me, the number one concern when projecting WR production is volume. There are a million variables to consider when analyzing WRs (size, speed, hands, route running, coach, scheme, weather, QB, schedule, quality of offense, etc.), but to me, target volume trumps all of it. 

Let's imagine I'm given the following information for next season. 

Player X has awesome size and speed, will play with a great QB, a creative offensive coach, plays his home games in a dome, etc.

Player Y will get at least 140 targets. That's all you know.

I'm taking player Y 100/100 times. This is just my personal approach to WRs, and it's worked well for me over the years. 

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9 hours ago, Evincar said:

I dont see why his targets wont increase especially with more vacated targets, one of them being the #2 WR. I mean I dont expect 150 but 125-135 is pretty reasonable. Is 20-25 less targets make taking AJ over MT indefensible? 

Maybe, maybe not. Arguably, nothing is indefensible. Take your guy. I just wouldn't consider it. 

For what it's worth, 20-25 targets in this range is the difference in volume between Davante Adams (149 targets) and Robert Woods (129 targets) or Cooper Kupp (124 targets). 

That's a reasonably large difference. And this is best case scenario for Brown. 

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