A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook

[ajs723 3,319]

7 minutes ago, peleincubus said:

all i did was pick the week that they changed QB's to what he will have this entire season. it is not just a random week where his targets increased that i picked to make an argument. but whatevers have a good one and good luck with your season.

 

And I picked the week that Haskins truly took over as the legit starter for Washington. The analogy is basically one-to-one. The difference is that AJB is the number one,  and Sims is the number two. My point is just that your target prediction model is flawed.

That said, I do really like AJB, especially long term. Strongly believe he's going to be one of those elite elite top tier WR1s for a decade. 

[peleincubus 110]

1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

And I picked the week that Haskins truly took over as the legit starter for Washington. The analogy is basically one-to-one. The difference is that AJB is the number one,  and Sims is the number two. My point is just that your target prediction model is flawed.

That said, I do really like AJB, especially long term. Strongly believe he's going to be one of those elite elite top tier WR1s for a decade. 

Haskins? I was comparing Kupp and AJ Brown's projected targets based on what happened last year. I'm not sure what you mean but i may just be confused.

[ajs723 3,319]

1 minute ago, peleincubus said:

Haskins? I was comparing Kupp and AJ Brown's projected targets based on what happened last year. I'm not sure what you mean but i may just be confused.

I was talking about Sims. Once Haskins took over, Sims paced for 130 targets using the same "targets +25 after QB switch" method that you used for AJB. Sims is not seeing 130 targets, so that math has flaws. That's all I'm saying. No worries.

[peleincubus 110]

49 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I was talking about Sims. Once Haskins took over, Sims paced for 130 targets using the same "targets +25 after QB switch" method that you used for AJB. Sims is not seeing 130 targets, so that math has flaws. That's all I'm saying. No worries.

I got you. I looked at the game logs and your right in a general sense. But it’s not that simple of a comparison. For reasons perhaps many of them Sims was not efficient with his targets while Brown was. Let’s see what happens though. I’m only in one league this year and CEH got me off on the right foot last night while my opponent had Houston’s kicker with one point lol. 

[cashvillesent 410]

On 9/8/2020 at 2:31 PM, WVFalcon said:

Brown wasn't really on my radar, but I felt like he was BPA at pick 59. I believe in the talent, but reading all the articles about Tannehill regression, YAC regression, and titans low passing volume has me a little bit concerned. Hopefully they feed the man.

Article about Tannehill regression? Source?

[cheezor42 534]

34 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

Article about Tannehill regression? Source?

he’s just speaking to the fact that no one thinks Tanny is actually as good / efficient as he played and that his statistics are sure to regress.  This is the dominant narrative in fantasy circles but I’m taking the opposite bet and think he picks up right where he left off and has a nice season.

[Kaii23 374]

19 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:

he’s just speaking to the fact that no one thinks Tanny is actually as good / efficient as he played and that his statistics are sure to regress.  This is the dominant narrative in fantasy circles but I’m taking the opposite bet and think he picks up right where he left off and has a nice season.

I'm with you there. I would be more apt to call it a fluke if he did it under the same conditions that he's always done it. But he only got good once he switched ta new situation. He immediately got better once he left Miami. That tells me that it's more about his new situation than it is about luck. I think he's extremely legit. And therefore so is Brown 

[cashvillesent 410]

37 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:

he’s just speaking to the fact that no one thinks Tanny is actually as good / efficient as he played and that his statistics are sure to regress.  This is the dominant narrative in fantasy circles but I’m taking the opposite bet and think he picks up right where he left off and has a nice season.

He obviously isnt going to keep up the same pace. But he still will have a very good season.

 

Last year he was probably one if not the best QB about 3 to 4 weeks stretch.

[vthokie3 1,371]

Tannehill's O/U for yards is around 3.5k I think. You have to think AJ gets at least 1000 of those

[SuperJoint 4,116]

The Titans are hard to figure out offensively right now. The way they WANT to do business is hand off to Henry on every play - that's why it seems obvious Tannheill should regress from his numbers last year. But of course we know in the NFL a lot of times teams don't let other teams do what they want to do, and make them do something different. That's how Tannehill emerged last year and I don't expect anything particularly different this year. Henry will still be the focus of defenses.

Tannehill's comfortable in this offense and he still has his security blankets in AJ, Smith and of course Henry. I was just fine taking Tannehill as a QB2 in the closing rounds of drafts. No one remembers how good he was just one season ago.

I don't expect tremendous volume for AJ but I do think he'll pay the bills nonetheless this year. I agree w/many that if things break right he has top 5 upside. I'll settle for solid WR2.

[cheezor42 534]

4 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

The Titans are hard to figure out offensively right now. The way they WANT to do business is hand off to Henry on every play - that's why it seems obvious Tannheill should regress from his numbers last year. But of course we know in the NFL a lot of times teams don't let other teams do what they want to do, and make them do something different. That's how Tannehill emerged last year and I don't expect anything particularly different this year. Henry will still be the focus of defenses.

Tannehill's comfortable in this offense and he still has his security blankets in AJ, Smith and of course Henry. I was just fine taking Tannehill as a QB2 in the closing rounds of drafts. No one remembers how good he was just one season ago.

I don't expect tremendous volume for AJ but I do think he'll pay the bills nonetheless this year. I agree w/many that if things break right he has top 5 upside. I'll settle for solid WR2.

I agree with a lot of this but I actually think Tanny made Henry work and not the other way around.  It’s a common thought that the run opens up the pass but it’s actually the other way around usually.  Tanny now keeps defenses honest, and that opens up their run game. 

[SadFaceHappy 2,049]

2 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

The Titans are hard to figure out offensively right now. The way they WANT to do business is hand off to Henry on every play - that's why it seems obvious Tannheill should regress from his numbers last year. But of course we know in the NFL a lot of times teams don't let other teams do what they want to do, and make them do something different. That's how Tannehill emerged last year and I don't expect anything particularly different this year. Henry will still be the focus of defenses.

And they can't give him 500 carries.

Even 400, which has been done, is 25/game if he plays all 16.

Even if they play slow, that's gonna be about 60 offensive plays a game.

That means, on average, we're looking at at least 30-35 plays/game that aren't going to Henry.  About 500 plays over the course of 16 games that aren't Henry runs.

So what are they going to do with all those non-Henry plays?

I think we can reasonably expect an absolute minimum (barring injury) of 100 of those plays going AJ's way.

He's clearly their 2nd best player on offense.  I think 120 targets is a solid bet.  If he catches two-thirds of those targets, and he drops by 25% to 15 yards/catch, that's 80/1200 for the season. 

If healthy all year, we're looking at a worst case scenario of something like 70/1100/5.

And I don't think "worst case" is all that likely. 

[Kaii23 374]

16 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

And they can't give him 500 carries.

Even 400, which has been done, is 25/game if he plays all 16.

Even if they play slow, that's gonna be about 60 offensive plays a game.

That means, on average, we're looking at at least 30-35 plays/game that aren't going to Henry.  About 500 plays over the course of 16 games that aren't Henry runs.

So what are they going to do with all those non-Henry plays?

I think we can reasonably expect an absolute minimum (barring injury) of 100 of those plays going AJ's way.

He's clearly their 2nd best player on offense.  I think 120 targets is a solid bet.  If he catches two-thirds of those targets, and he drops by 25% to 15 yards/catch, that's 80/1200 for the season. 

If healthy all year, we're looking at a worst case scenario of something like 70/1100/5.

And I don't think "worst case" is all that likely. 

Only 5, tds? No way. Who else is tannehill throwing to? He'll get close to 10. 

[SadFaceHappy 2,049]

10 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

Only 5, tds? No way. Who else is tannehill throwing to? He'll get close to 10. 

This was an "absolutely worst case" scenario 

[Brye 402]

7 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

This was an "absolutely worst case" scenario 

Yeah agreed, AJ Brown is the real deal.  Just know that tennehill is smart and if Tannehill wants to completely revive his career after a stellar year last year he’s most definitely going to be targeting AJ a hell of a lot as he’s basically the lone unicorn 🦄 on the field as far as pass catchers go.  
 

tannehill wants millions of dollars on a multi year deal well AJ is his main weapon then, as Henry will most definitely help with the play actions that will open the field up for AJ to make some huge big plays this year.  AJ will be a top 10 WR this year and you can bet on that, with top 5 upside 

[Brye 402]

What should we expect from him tonite? He did horrible against them last year , but they have no more chris Harris shadowing him .

[ponchsox 1,800]

Just now, Brye said:

What should we expect from him tonite? He did horrible against them last year , but they have no more chris Harris shadowing him .

I'm worried about the Titans offense in general traveling to Denver with only a 24 hour turnaround. Looking at a 17-14 type score.

[MayorMcCheese 137]

13 minutes ago, Brye said:

What should we expect from him tonite? He did horrible against them last year , but they have no more chris Harris shadowing him .

I wouldn't look into last year's game. Mariota was the starter and benched in the 2nd half. The game was also in the first half of the season before Brown became a focal point of the offense. 

[zen25 96]

Is he playing. I do not see him.

 

Its all Corey Davis.

[Jrt80 228]

He's merely a decoy this year. An illusion to distract the defense from the real threat Mr. Davis. 

[RunCMC 2,462]

1 hour ago, zen25 said:

Is he playing. I do not see him.

 

Its all Corey Davis.

 

Never thought I would hear those words 😂 . But alas it's 2020 

Stranger things have happened.

[zen25 96]

AJ Brown got 6 out of 40 attempts so far from Tannehill. He caught 5 of them.

Corey Davis got 10.

 

Perplexing.

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

7 minutes ago, zen25 said:

AJ Brown got 6 out of 40 attempts so far from Tannehill. He caught 5 of them.

Corey Davis got 10.

 

Perplexing.

looks like in the second half they got their heads out of their asses.

looks like a really good buy low...AJ brown was an inch a way from the game winning td and the first read 

[RunCMC 2,462]

7 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

looks like in the second half they got their heads out of their asses.

looks like a really good buy low...AJ brown was an inch a way from the game winning td and the first read 

 

I think so as well, great buy low opportunity. 

Corey Davis 10 targets is a major outlier, imo . The man has been a proverbial JAG since entering the league ( in relation to being drafted 5th overall )

Titans aerial attack you want AJ Brown first, followed by Jonnu Smith 2nd 

Edited September 15, 2020 by RunCMC

[herschel 1,986]

1 minute ago, RunCMC said:

 

I think so as well, great buy low opportunity. 

Corey Davis 10 targets is a major outlier, imo . The man has been a proverbial JAG since entering the league ( in relation to being drafted 5th overall )

Titans aerial attack you want AJ Brown first, followed by Jonnu Smith 2nd 

Agree about Davis but might switch AJ and Smith in terms of priority.