Jonnu Smith 2020 Outlook

[BMcP 8,690]

17 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

1. those yards count, on top of the fact they show he’s athletic enough to rip off 50+ yard pitches from the backfield 

2. I cherry picked nothing, I simply pointed out those target numbers were skewed by 2 “0s” in games they blew their opponent out of the water and didn’t need to throw the ball. You also didn’t account for the fact targets that went to Walker are now going somewhere ... and it’s likely Jonnu.

3. The 2019 scheme is changing, the guy calling the plays knows it needs to. 
 

Good luck this year. 

1.  They most certainly do, just as they count for all other TEs - but rushing attempts had absolutely nothing to do with my point re: projected targets.
 

2a.  The fact that the Titans were nursing a comfortable lead in two games doesn’t “skew” the numbers - beating teams by a significant margin is just something that good teams do from time to time throughout the course of a regular season.  It’s nothing even deserving of mention (unless you believe the team is significantly worse this year and won’t find itself in that situation again).

2b.  I most certainly did account for that in a previous comment, in which I explained that, even if you took every single target Walker received and added it to every single target Smith received (yes, even in those games where they were both on the field together), you still wouldn’t reach 60 receptions based on his catch percentage.  (That is even treating Smith as the equivalent of two players - Smith+Walker - for more than a third of the season.)

3.  While I expect certain nuanced differences in 2020, as I’ve repeatedly stated, the scheme would need to not just change, but change drastically to accommodate your projection.  I don’t foresee that happening after their success last season.

P.S.  My calculations attributed Smith with a ~80% catch percentage (2019) - more than ten percentage points above your 70% career number - to acknowledge his improvement in that area.

Edited July 23, 2020 by BMcP

[SharkSwimmer 4,962]

Beware of players Belichick has praised the week before the Patriots played them.  Belichick is a master of misdirection.

Belichick has said the same thing about literal dozens of other marginal opponents over the years.  

[DerrickHenrysCleats 6,068]

Anthony Firkser is still in Tennessee

[joshua18 7,029]

On 7/23/2020 at 12:41 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

Beware of players Belichick has praised the week before the Patriots played them.  Belichick is a master of misdirection.

Belichick has said the same thing about literal dozens of other marginal opponents over the years.  

Not really. If BB praises a player openly, odds are he’s trying to eventually get him on his roster (ie Brandin Cooks)

[BMcP 8,690]

5 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

Not really. If BB praises a player openly, odds are he’s trying to eventually get him on his roster (ie Brandin Cooks)

He must want a whole heck of a lot of guys on his roster, then.

[Boudewijn 4,749]

5 hours ago, BMcP said:

He must want a whole heck of a lot of guys on his roster, then.

And coaches. Last time I checked he was praising Gase.

[CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast 4,135]

2019 TE Ranks

Advanced Metrics: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/te/2019

Catch Rate: 5th best in the NFL among all TEs

DYAR: 9th best among all TEs

DVOA: 6th best among all TEs 

Yards/Reception: 7th best among all TEs

In case you haven't heard, Delanie Walker is no longer in his way, he's in a contract year, and he's been working out with Tannehill every week this summer ... oh, his current offensive coordinator is his former TE coach who wants to open up the offense with more "explosive plays" in the passing game ... oh, Jonnu's broad jump (short area quickness/burst) falls in the 95th percentile of all TEs ... oh, he also had 2 plays where he exceeded 20 MPH per Next Gen Stats - more or less unheard of from a TE ... oh, his average separation per route was better than Kittle, Kelce, and Waller ... oh, he also had the 4th best YAC/Reception among ALL WRs & TEs ... I forgot to mention he also had the longest rush (yes, rush) of any TE in over 40 years... OH, THERE'S THIS TOO: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/why-te-jonnu-smiths-osm-dominance-in-2019-bodes-well-for-the-titans/ (it's just a metric that shows Jonnu was literally the best player in the NFL last year with the ball in his hands) ... 

Current ADP: 14th round (12 team leagues), 17th TE off the board:

 

Edited July 25, 2020 by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

[SharkSwimmer 4,962]

Well, okay then.  That all actually looks pretty great.  I think I will end up drafting this cat.

[CViewPride35 95]

If he can get little more targets... he is gonna finish top 8, easy. This guy is a freak. 

Him, Henry, and AjBrown are straight up “Titans”. 

[NInsko 258]

This guy was coming on strong last yr and in the playoffs.. perfect last RND TE.

[aapox 898]

The targets are the only concern, but it’s likely that Tennessee will throw more next year and tannehill for a whole season is a big upgrade from Mariota. I’m willing to bet on talent here if I my Hurst (who I am betting on more because of talent plus the opportunity/system). Not shocked at all if he’s second to AJB in targets and posts a really nice season. 

[aapox 898]

4 hours ago, NInsko said:

This guy was coming on strong last yr and in the playoffs.. perfect last RND TE.

He won’t make it to the last round. I’d be prepared to take him in the 10th-12th range. His hype is justifiably getting stronger than guys like Fant, Hock and Geisicki. I think only like Jarwin, Herndon and Doyle are on the draft bubble. 

[ST. STEVEN 4,440]

7 hours ago, aapox said:

He won’t make it to the last round. I’d be prepared to take him in the 10th-12th range. His hype is justifiably getting stronger than guys like Fant, Hock and Geisicki. I think only like Jarwin, Herndon and Doyle are on the draft bubble. 

Yeah, he won't be there late in my leagues, but I play mostly 14-16 teamers...in a standard league I suppose it is in that area of the final rounds though.

Shoot, I popped him in the middle of the 8th in a draft last night.

[BMcP 8,690]

11 hours ago, aapox said:

The targets are the only concern, but it’s likely that Tennessee will throw more next year and tannehill for a whole season is a big upgrade from Mariota. I’m willing to bet on talent here if I my Hurst (who I am betting on more because of talent plus the opportunity/system). Not shocked at all if he’s second to AJB in targets and posts a really nice season. 

Just don’t expect 60 receptions as a floor, and you’re good to go.  Dead last in pass attempts per game last year.

[aapox 898]

@BMcP I've followed the thread.... I'm not going there 😆🤣

[cashvillesent 410]

Titans are going to have to pass more this year.

 

Guy is a freak and had a chance to learn from one of the best Delanie Walker.

[Dreams And Dwightmares 3,229]

I hate getting involved w/ fantasy so late and there's already 5 pages.

Can anyone drop some projections that I don't have to sift through 5 pages for?

I'm looking at:

Overall TE finish range projection; ex: TE5 (OVERALL)
Rec / Yards / TDs; ex: 50 / 500 / 5
And comparisons; ex: Think he'll finish next to Evan Engram, Hunter Henry range

If you can, that's awesome.  If you can't, I get it too.

[ST. STEVEN 4,440]

All reports indicate that he has crushed camp and they are preparing to make him a feature part of the offense. Even a run heavy team will need to toss the ball and there should be some regression in that department from last year. Henry on the field for more 3rd downs (possible a lot more) is really going to open up the play-action in the middle of the field to Jonnu. It is a narrow target tree and his price is very affordable (even if you reach on the end of the TE run after the top 10-12). I don't make a lot of wild predictions around here, but I am feeling a big year for Jonnu.

[ST. STEVEN 4,440]

1 post since July 29th...How can folks not be excited that this force is finally going to be a focal point?!

I find it borderline nuts that various expert rankers (ahem, Rotopat etc) put him at 20th for this week, or worse. Maybe I am way off base, but this is a good offense. An all-world RB and top flight young #1 WR, with a very solid QB that was elite on the play action last year...Jonnu is the #2 receiving option and the coordinator knows how to scheme him looks.

[Fabios1993 42]

5 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

1 post since July 29th...How can folks not be excited that this force is finally going to be a focal point?!

I find it borderline nuts that various expert rankers (ahem, Rotopat etc) put him at 20th for this week, or worse. Maybe I am way off base, but this is a good offense. An all-world RB and top flight young #1 WR, with a very solid QB that was elite on the play action last year...Jonnu is the #2 receiving option and the coordinator knows how to scheme him looks.

I'm putting him on the starting lineup, I want to trust in this titans offense and he demonstrate to have some quality.  Let's hope 

[Guwop 802]

got him in the later rounds, hoping he produces so i can possibly flex him some weeks and have him in on andrew's bye week

[Macgregor 116]

Something I haven't seen mentioned here, and not trying to jinx anything, but... what if Henry gets hurt? What if, for whatever reason, the run game suffers?

I feel safe about Jonnu. 

[ST. STEVEN 4,440]

Blurb:

An NFC executive told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler he views Jonnu Smith as a “top-five” tight end.

With Delanie Walker gone, Smith has an every-down role for the first time in his career. He spent the offseason as the only pass catcher working out with Ryan Tannehill in South Florida. Smith caught 29-of-35 targets for 342 yards and three touchdowns in 10 games with Tannehill last year, and there’s potential for a big Week 1 role with Corey Davis playing through a hamstring injury. Denver’s secondary allowed the sixth-most receptions and fourth-most yards to tight ends in 2019.

Source: ESPN

[cdd10 1,200]

1 minute ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Blurb:

An NFC executive told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler he views Jonnu Smith as a “top-five” tight end.

With Delanie Walker gone, Smith has an every-down role for the first time in his career. He spent the offseason as the only pass catcher working out with Ryan Tannehill in South Florida. Smith caught 29-of-35 targets for 342 yards and three touchdowns in 10 games with Tannehill last year, and there’s potential for a big Week 1 role with Corey Davis playing through a hamstring injury. Denver’s secondary allowed the sixth-most receptions and fourth-most yards to tight ends in 2019.

Source: ESPN

The Broncos faced the seventh-most targets to tight ends last year but allowed the 21st-most fantasy points. That highlights the efficiency they had. That's a problem for someone like Smith, who hasn't seen much volume in this offense. Despite Delanie Walker missing over half the season, Smith saw more than five targets just twice all year. He was highly efficient with those targets, averaging 10.0 yards per target. Are there more targets to go around in this offense this year? Teams averaged just 33.6 pass attempts per game, and a large part of that is due to their games averaging just 122.3 plays per game, which was the third-lowest mark in the league. The Titans also ranked in the bottom 12 for total plays per game, and it's why you're seeing the game total as low as it is. Because of the projected low-scoring/low-volume affair between these two, I'd prefer to hold off on Smith as a streamer. He's a TE2 this week.

 

An analysis as to why he might not be so high this week.

[DerrickHenrysCleats 6,068]

15 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

The Broncos faced the seventh-most targets to tight ends last year but allowed the 21st-most fantasy points. That highlights the efficiency they had. That's a problem for someone like Smith, who hasn't seen much volume in this offense. Despite Delanie Walker missing over half the season, Smith saw more than five targets just twice all year. He was highly efficient with those targets, averaging 10.0 yards per target. Are there more targets to go around in this offense this year? Teams averaged just 33.6 pass attempts per game, and a large part of that is due to their games averaging just 122.3 plays per game, which was the third-lowest mark in the league. The Titans also ranked in the bottom 12 for total plays per game, and it's why you're seeing the game total as low as it is. Because of the projected low-scoring/low-volume affair between these two, I'd prefer to hold off on Smith as a streamer. He's a TE2 this week.

 

An analysis as to why he might not be so high this week.

Broncos LB Mark Barron (hamstring) missed the last two days of practice.

The Broncos just signed Barron last month. He has an extra day to get ready with Denver playing Monday night but looks on the wrong side of questionable. One of Denver’s better cover linebackers, Barron's absence would be an upgrade to TE Jonnu Smith’s matchup.

 

Which denver LBer will cover Jonnu? Josey Jewell?

Edited September 12, 2020 by DerrickHenrysCleats