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Saquon Barkley 2020 Outlook


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5 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah fantasy vs real life is a different discussion. I still don’t know who should go first but CMC seems to be the most durable back I’ve seen since the dudes in the 2000s. That alone has unprecedented value. 


And was easily predictable 3 years ago over comparable RBs made of glass like Fournette for anyone who paid attention to CMAC breaking Barry Sanders’ college yardage record.

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The other 3 teams in your league are in big trouble, for sure. 

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

But this is a highly important debate for those legions of forum members facing a choice between CMC and Saquon!

Completely agree. I have the #1 pick in my league. It’s neck & neck between Saquon and McCaffrey. Every little bit of info helps 

 

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3 hours ago, NInsko said:

It is very rare for a RB to repeat as the RB1, I had a reference but i cant find it. Either way i expect Barkley to out preform his rookie sesson fwiw.

Marshall Faulk in 2000-2001 and Priest Holmes in 2002-2003 (in PPR anyway). 

2 consecutive years in the top-3 is more common: LaDainian Tomlinson was  in the top-3 from 2002-2007, and more recently Lev Bell, Todd Gurley and CMC all had consecutive top-3 years.

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1. Saquon Barkley is the better reality player, and quite frankly it’s not even close. 
2. Saquon Barkley has already put up more yards in a season ... the only time they both played 16 games in the NFL.

3. Go look up RB success a year after 400+ touches.

New HC has already said the game plan will vary based on opponent ... you can expect some weeks of 20+ carries, other weeks of 8+ receptions for Barkley 


In the end, it’s not gonna matter they are in a tier all by themselves. CMC will probably have more receptions (Barkley did have 90+ as a rookie), and the Giants OL should be significantly improved. 

When it’s this close, I want the bigger, more talented player that isn’t coming off 400+ touches. 
 

 

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What a time to be alive , McCaffrey or Barkley ; can't think of a greater dilemma to have than this. You're all but guaranteed a top5 finish at the position.

This is one of those years where you don't mind having the #2 overall pick. Just makes life easier ... that decision is basically made for you already. 

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20 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

What a time to be alive , McCaffrey or Barkley ; can't think of a greater dilemma to have than this. You're all but guaranteed a top5 finish at the position.

This is one of those years where you don't mind having the #2 overall pick. Just makes life easier ... that decision is basically made for you already. 


well said. This is the year to have the #2 pick ... queue up these 2 and let the 1st guy decide ... plus you get the earlier 2nd rounder

 

Oh the numbers Barkley would put up if he was force fed the touches CMC got last year ... 

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34 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

This is one of those years where you don't mind having the #2 overall pick. Just makes life easier ... that decision is basically made for you already. 

I didn't mind having a top-3 pick last year and getting Kamara, easy money. Or in 2017 when I had the first pick and had a guaranteed stud in David Johnson. 

;)

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10 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I didn't mind having a top-3 pick last year and getting Kamara, easy money. Or in 2017 when I had the first pick and had a guaranteed stud in David Johnson. 

;)

 

Hahaha touché 😝 injuries tho can't do much about that

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33 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I didn't mind having a top-3 pick last year and getting Kamara, easy money. Or in 2017 when I had the first pick and had a guaranteed stud in David Johnson. 

;)

Dude...that's almost exactly what I did.   2017 David Johnson at the 1.01 and last year Kamara at 1.04.   Passed on McCaffrey because no way he holds up.

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21 hours ago, NInsko said:

It is very rare for a RB to repeat as the RB1, I had a reference but i cant find it. Either way i expect Barkley to out preform his rookie sesson fwiw.


That was the exact reason I didn’t like saquon as much last season and don’t like CMC as much this season.
 

todd gurley was #1 in standard and half ppr in 2017 and 2018 I couldn’t tell ya the last guy who returned #1 pick value like that, maybe LT? Add that and that most RBs usually break down or have bad seasons after getting 400 touches and I’m especially hesitant to take CMC. The only backs I kno who had good seasons following a 400 touch season is Eric Dickerson, emmitt smith, LT, and Walter Payton.. pretty good company. 

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16 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

1. Saquon Barkley is the better reality player, and quite frankly it’s not even close. 
2. Saquon Barkley has already put up more yards in a season ... the only time they both played 16 games in the NFL.

3. Go look up RB success a year after 400+ touches.

New HC has already said the game plan will vary based on opponent ... you can expect some weeks of 20+ carries, other weeks of 8+ receptions for Barkley 


In the end, it’s not gonna matter they are in a tier all by themselves. CMC will probably have more receptions (Barkley did have 90+ as a rookie), and the Giants OL should be significantly improved. 

When it’s this close, I want the bigger, more talented player that isn’t coming off 400+ touches. 
 

 

 

1. Not close? Lol

2. Is this counting CMC's 2018 Week 17 game where he was on the bench?

3. Only 71% of CMC's touches were carries. Not that comparable to most 400 touch RBs.

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38 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I get ur saying #1 doesnt return #1, we dont have a globe, i bet if i handed u a $5000 bill with the #1 pick, ud take cmc today, thats just how it is

 

uhm maybe.. new offense new coaches for both players. Idk how Matt rhule will use an RB but we do know how Jason Garrett  will want to use saquon. I tend to draft late in my leagues so I don’t have this dilemma but I’m def leaning saquon today.. maybe CMC tomorrow.

 

30 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

1. Not close? Lol

2. Is this counting CMC's 2018 Week 17 game where he was on the bench?

3. Only 71% of CMC's touches were carries. Not that comparable to most 400 touch RBs.


2. ya CMC played like the first drive of the 16th game and got like 2 carries and a 30 yard catch so it says he played 16 games but it’s closer to 15. Even then saquon only finished with 67 more yards that CMC in 2018... but he did have an elite cam for 8 games and a bum came for 6 and back ups for 2... saquon had the ghost of Eli Manning the whole season. 

3. Why does it matter how they got their 400 touches? I thought the touches number was only important because it shows the load they take and the amount of wear the body has absorbed. What’s it matter if they’ve been hit on a run or after a reception?

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2 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

3. Why does it matter how they got their 400 touches? I thought the touches number was only important because it shows the load they take and the amount of wear the body has absorbed. What’s it matter if they’ve been hit on a run or after a reception?

 

Its much easier for a RB to defend himself in the open field, run out of bounds etc than it is to carry the ball between the tackles. Some of these RBs like Larry Johnson and DeMarco Murray didnt just have 400 touches they had 400 carries. CMC is the only RB of the 400 touch club to have under 300 carries.

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3 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

1. Not close? Lol

2. Is this counting CMC's 2018 Week 17 game where he was on the bench?

3. Only 71% of CMC's touches were carries. Not that comparable to most 400 touch RBs.


1. Size, athleticism, big play ability ... no, they aren’t close. Barkley blows CMC out of the water in essentially every one of these categories, and the objective data (try it sometime) only proves the point. Barkley’s ripping off more big plays on significantly less career touches so far, fumbling less, and averaging more total yards per game with nearly identical yards per reception. In short, there is nothing CMC does that Barkley can’t ... while there seems to be quite a few plays Barkley has already made that CMC couldn’t if he wanted to. The fact that Barkley is doing this with a frame that’s 30 pounds bigger makes this gap even more ridiculous. 

2. We could play this BS game all day. It’s the same season Barkley played as a rookie with no help behind a train wreck of an offensive line and the shell of Eli Manning under center. 

3. Last time I checked they still get tackled on receptions. There’s also 25 years of data indicating CMC is a huge regression candidate in per touch production following the 400 touch threshold. 
 

You can all relax, I do love CMC and would jump at the opportunity to select him. I would just do it after the bigger, more talented RB not coming off a 400 touch season. 
 

My previous post broke down exactly why I would do this. Total yards per game (rate of performance), 20+/40+ yard plays, size, athletic profile ... it’s weird when all the data proves Barkley is better. 

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22 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

haha limped off field, whatever dude. Him and drake in same day

He'll probably be fine but if he misses time, would Dion Lewis, Wayne Gallman or a combination of the 2 be his backup?

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4 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

He'll probably be fine but if he misses time, would Dion Lewis, Wayne Gallman or a combination of the 2 be his backup?

 

Darius Slayton will be the main beneficiary, as the running game will be a heaping slab of "AYFKM!1!" ... oh, and Dimez, too ... can't forget Dimez. 

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5 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

Darius Slayton will be the main beneficiary, as the running game will be a heaping slab of "AYFKM!1!" ... oh, and Dimez, too ... can't forget Dimez. 

I read that Slayton got injured himself.

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