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Michael Thomas 2020 Outlook


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41 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

No, that's fair. Manning fell of a cliff fast. 

On the other hand, even in his final year (with Brock O making several starts too), the Broncos still had 2 1000 yard WRs.

If you can buy Michael Thomas at any discount right now, go do it.

Agree with this.  If he was a downfield WR, I'd have some concern but when he's in the game, he's a safe short option for Grandpa Brees.

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23 minutes ago, Cord said:

Thing is, if they suspected he'd be out three weeks, why not put him on IR?

Yea, agreed. Looking like Thomas may play next week. If not, then for sure the week after! Prolly be a decoy if he does play next week IMO... But who knows

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Just now, yossarian said:

pretty sure the only reason he wasn't put on IR was to F with my fantasy team. That's really the only explanation I can think of.

It ticks me off because I have to pull him out of IR just to make roster changes. Total BS. I guess just better off letting him take up a regular spot. They already said he's going to be out multiple weeks so I don't understand this at all. Even their opponents know he's not going to play. They aren't fooling anybody.

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24 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Because they're not sure.  You sure wouldn't want to make him ineligible if somehow he's right by Week 4.

But IR is different this year. They only have to be on there for three weeks. So he comes back Week 5, big deal? One extra week. But still they have an early bye so just put him on IR and let him heal up. Be ready to go for the final 10 games.

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3 hours ago, FitzMagic said:

It ticks me off because I have to pull him out of IR just to make roster changes. Total BS. I guess just better off letting him take up a regular spot. They already said he's going to be out multiple weeks so I don't understand this at all. Even their opponents know he's not going to play. They aren't fooling anybody.

The site programmers are enjoying their quarantining a little too much and aren't staying on top of things like updating the site settings because...you know...that would like, require some work on their part.

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14 minutes ago, Leopard said:

People who own Thomas: are you trying to trade him + package player for a RB or is everyone holding on especially since the saints didn’t put him on IR assuming he comes back soon

HOLD!

You don't sell your best player because he got hurt early in the season. Sure, you might be able to slightly improve your roster for a week or two by moving him, but then you'll be much worse for the next 10-12 weeks, including the playoffs. Do not sell. 

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25 minutes ago, Kilo said:

Holding as I have ok WR depth but, not feeling great about it honestly.  I worry that when he comes back (even if they hold him out for a few more weeks), that he may still not be 100%.

My biggest concern as well. Kamara had a high ankle injury last year and, though he played, didn't really look the same till week 16 or 17. 

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20 hours ago, FitzMagic said:

But IR is different this year. They only have to be on there for three weeks. So he comes back Week 5, big deal? One extra week. But still they have an early bye so just put him on IR and let him heal up. Be ready to go for the final 10 games.

Somewhat agree.  But given how Brees looks so far, I'd think they want to give themselves every opportunity to get Thomas in when they can.  

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5 hours ago, ajs723 said:

HOLD!

You don't sell your best player because he got hurt early in the season. Sure, you might be able to slightly improve your roster for a week or two by moving him, but then you'll be much worse for the next 10-12 weeks, including the playoffs. Do not sell. 

Agree with this 100%. I suppose if someone is 0-2 and has other roster holes to fill, trade him for best you can. 
 

As far as Brees looking bad, I think that helps Thomas. It’s not like Thomas is some speed burner and Brees needs to chuck it 50 yards to him. Saints looked like crap. And the solution is some MT.

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5 hours ago, Leopard said:

People who own Thomas: are you trying to trade him + package player for a RB or is everyone holding on especially since the saints didn’t put him on IR assuming he comes back soon

 

I was after week 1 if I could have gotten a decent offer, but no one would bite.

Now though, you're already part way through his missed games.  I assume he misses week 3, and has a chance to play week 4.  Could be on pain management, decoy, snap count, pulled early based on game script etc.  But I expect him week 5 like normal, although I'm fully aware with a week 6 bye, that maybe he doesn't see the field until week 7.

So, your valuation has to depend on how long you think the injury is going to be.  If you trade him now, you're getting a lesser play AND you already sacrificed Week 2 without him.    I'm fine with trading Thomas, if you get maximum value; and I don't mean player, I mean timeline.  Trading him too late into his injury missed games, just results in taking all the negative of his missed games AND the negative of a lesser player.  It can be one or the other, but not both.

So, if you think he's back week 4, and you've already suffered without him Week 2... is missing 1 week of Thomas (Wk3) worth trading him away?  I say no.

BUT, if you think he's back week 7, you've only suffered without him week 2... you can get 2 players into your lineup for 4 weeks before you expect to have Thomas back, then I say yes.

Based on not using the 3 week IR, I expect him to play Week 4.  In that scenario, I think it's too late to trade him, you're already half way through his missed games, and his price isn't getting higher, so diminishing returns.

I use this same mentality when trying to pick up injured players (like CMC this week).  If you can offer someone something they can use right away and their lineup never takes a hit, they're more likely to take it right now, and just move on.  Offer the same trade in 1-2 weeks, and they've already committed to holding and waiting, and you don't get the deal done.  Especially if they win without him.

If anyone bailed last week on Thomas, and got value in their lineup for Week 2, I commend them.
If you bail this week, I think it's probably too little, too late.

Sometimes, the smartest bet, is to wait until he's officially going to play and then sell him before anyone can see how he does.  As far as maximizing perception and trade value.  If the Saints come out and say 'He's 100%, he'll be out there Sunday with no limitations.' you can try to leverage that, to avoid the entire ordeal and still get 1st round value.  It all stems back to your expectations of the injury though.

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5 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Sometimes, the smartest bet, is to wait until he's officially going to play and then sell him before anyone can see how he does.  As far as maximizing perception and trade value.  If the Saints come out and say 'He's 100%, he'll be out there Sunday with no limitations.' you can try to leverage that, to avoid the entire ordeal and still get 1st round value.  It all stems back to your expectations of the injury though.

I get where you are coming from but there is no way I’m going to wait until the week he is going to play, and then trade him. At that point, he is in my lineup. And yes, he may not perform at the level we want. But if I’m paying for the time he is out by holding, I’m seeing what he can do.

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20 hours ago, Gootz said:

The site programmers are enjoying their quarantining a little too much and aren't staying on top of things like updating the site settings because...you know...that would like, require some work on their part.

Yeah I noticed it as well on a lot of sites. Even here there’s a bunch of duplicate threads that normally would be merged into one and conversations that would normally result in locked threads within an hour go on for days. Even Sleeper for instance has been out of wack during game day compared to last year

Interesting to say the least...

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I'd bet on him staring either this week or latest, next week.

 

If the Schefter report of him feeling"fantastic" last week was true, then perhaps they held him out as a precaution. I think its conceivable he plays this week, we'll see. But I'd be really surprised if he doesn't play next wekk.

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17 minutes ago, TennisDude said:

Brees look finished out there without Thomas this week. Do they push him to get back out there this week? I mean they are playing for a Super Bowl or bust.

He looked finished with Thomas as well. Dude looks like toast. But hell, in ppr leagues all the dumpoffs count the same.

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20 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

He looked finished with Thomas as well. Dude looks like toast. But hell, in ppr leagues all the dumpoffs count the same.

Well to be fair, he didn't throw to Thomas in Week 1 because he was double and sometimes triple teamed leaving other guys wide open. So he took what they gave him and won. Buuuut week 2 was a nightmare, Sanders cannot get separation any longer is a better a 3 receiver on a team let alone a 1. Dump offs to Kamara work for a little while but won't win games. They have to get Thomas back out there or this season and probably Brees career is shot. 

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As a manager, you have to make moves or you let your team die. I traded Thomas away because I know you will be forced to put him in your lineup not at 100%. It becomes a trap, but you just deal with it.  I do hope you Thomas owners get him back he’s dropping 20 point games moving forward. 

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