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Michael Thomas 2020 Outlook


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On 1/22/2021 at 9:07 AM, The G Man said:

I agree with this. I think it's 50/50 right now, and if he feels good in another month or two he may very well give it one more shot.

Brees can't throw the ball further than 20 yards anymore.....how does his return help the team?

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Damn. You got it like that huh. I don’t think I know 1 surgeon, let alone multiples. What the heck are you doing here with us peasants. 

And F Sean Payton for having him out there when the game was decided and all the other backups were in.  

How it started: How it’s going:

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47 minutes ago, Kevrunner said:

That was with one of the most accurate passing QBs in history, so yes, it will be absolutely shocking if Thomas ever comes close to having a season close to his 2018 season.  

He's been amazing with Bridgewater and Taysom Hill, so I don't think it's all Brees. Plus, we haven't seen Brees support other WR1s outside of Colston years ago. 

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4 hours ago, ajs723 said:

He's been amazing with Bridgewater and Taysom Hill, so I don't think it's all Brees. Plus, we haven't seen Brees support other WR1s outside of Colston years ago. 

In 2019 he averaged around 24 points a game in PPR leagues, this year with Taysom Hill, he averaged around 15 to 16 points in the games that Hill started, so I guess you are referring to other seasons that Thomas was amazing with Taysom Hill as his QB.   Thomas is getting older, his body is getting banged up and he is losing one of the best QBs of all time.  I just can’t see him being consistent or even close to his top 3 seasons.   He’ll have some good games most definitely, but he just won’t be consistent/trustworthy.

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1 hour ago, Kevrunner said:

In 2019 he averaged around 24 points a game in PPR leagues, this year with Taysom Hill, he averaged around 15 to 16 points in the games that Hill started, so I guess you are referring to other seasons that Thomas was amazing with Taysom Hill as his QB.   Thomas is getting older, his body is getting banged up and he is losing one of the best QBs of all time.  I just can’t see him being consistent or even close to his top 3 seasons.   He’ll have some good games most definitely, but he just won’t be consistent/trustworthy.

He was still good with Hill. Of course not targeting Kamara will definitely help that. The one issue is that he didnt score a TD with Hill and I dont see him being a big TD guy if he is the starter next season.

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1 hour ago, Kevrunner said:

In 2019 he averaged around 24 points a game in PPR leagues, this year with Taysom Hill, he averaged around 15 to 16 points in the games that Hill started, so I guess you are referring to other seasons that Thomas was amazing with Taysom Hill as his QB.   Thomas is getting older, his body is getting banged up and he is losing one of the best QBs of all time.  I just can’t see him being consistent or even close to his top 3 seasons.   He’ll have some good games most definitely, but he just won’t be consistent/trustworthy.

Thomas had 30 catches in 4 games with Hill (including the joke of a "game" against Denver where the Broncos had no QB). Again, that's a 120 catch pace anyway. If you want to worry about his points per game dipping because he didn't happen to catch any TDs in that handful of games, then okay... I guess. But I really doubt he'd catch 0 TDs on 120 grabs. So yes, Thomas was awesome with Hill this year, albeit in a pretty small sample. 

Michael Thomas is currently 27 years old. The general consensus on age of decline for WRs is around 29-30. So he should have another year or two at his peak.

Needless to say, I think you are going to regret how severely you are underrating MT.

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2 hours ago, Kevrunner said:

In 2019 he averaged around 24 points a game in PPR leagues, this year with Taysom Hill, he averaged around 15 to 16 points in the games that Hill started, so I guess you are referring to other seasons that Thomas was amazing with Taysom Hill as his QB.   Thomas is getting older, his body is getting banged up and he is losing one of the best QBs of all time.  I just can’t see him being consistent or even close to his top 3 seasons.   He’ll have some good games most definitely, but he just won’t be consistent/trustworthy.

I’m a bit confused - I thought you said earlier that his 2019 was primarily a product of Kamara’s injuries - now you seem to be attributing it to having Brees throwing him passes.

To the extent all of us are getting older, I’ll agree with that point - but MT will only be 28 entering next season and still well within his prime age-wise, so I don’t see how that’s a concern.  Plus there’s no indication that he won’t be fully recovered from any off-season surgery prior to next season.

 

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18 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

Brees can't throw the ball further than 20 yards anymore.....how does his return help the team?

Welp, I didn't say his return (if he does come back for another season) would help the team. Just said I don't think it's a given he does in fact retire this year. I just think the season left a really bad taste in his mouth. He's such a competitor, so living with that as his last season may be more than he can stand to bare.

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12 hours ago, BMcP said:

I’m a bit confused - I thought you said earlier that his 2019 was primarily a product of Kamara’s injuries - now you seem to be attributing it to having Brees throwing him passes.

To the extent all of us are getting older, I’ll agree with that point - but MT will only be 28 entering next season and still well within his prime age-wise, so I don’t see how that’s a concern.  Plus there’s no indication that he won’t be fully recovered from any off-season surgery prior to next season.

 

Since I had already mentioned my Kamara thoughts, really didn’t think I needed to include them again, but I still feel that Kamara playing thru injuries which resulted in his very subpar season was a major factor in Thomas’s career year.  Everyone knows Brees was one of the most accurate QBs in the history of the NFL, and his physical demise hurt Thomas a lot also and if Brees comes back, he’s just a shell of his former shelf and really don’t see that as anything positive. 

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54 minutes ago, Kevrunner said:

Since I had already mentioned my Kamara thoughts, really didn’t think I needed to include them again, but I still feel that Kamara playing thru injuries which resulted in his very subpar season was a major factor in Thomas’s career year.  Everyone knows Brees was one of the most accurate QBs in the history of the NFL, and his physical demise hurt Thomas a lot also and if Brees comes back, he’s just a shell of his former shelf and really don’t see that as anything positive. 

I agree that Brees dragging his corpse out there for another year would be bad news for the entire Saints organization. But, I don't feel like that's likely. 

FWIW, you went from "MT won't be good because he won't have Brees" to "MT won't be good because he might have Brees again".

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1 hour ago, Kevrunner said:

Since I had already mentioned my Kamara thoughts, really didn’t think I needed to include them again, but I still feel that Kamara playing thru injuries which resulted in his very subpar season was a major factor in Thomas’s career year.  Everyone knows Brees was one of the most accurate QBs in the history of the NFL, and his physical demise hurt Thomas a lot also and if Brees comes back, he’s just a shell of his former shelf and really don’t see that as anything positive. 

Brees and Thomas were rarely on the field together in 2020, so I don’t think there’s a sufficiently large sample size to draw conclusions from there.  To your other point, I mentioned up-thread how Kamara’s usage and targets/receptions remained almost eerily stable over the past three seasons, so I must disagree that that was in any way a factor.

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

I agree that Brees dragging his corpse out there for another year would be bad news for the entire Saints organization. But, I don't feel like that's likely. 

FWIW, you went from "MT won't be good because he won't have Brees" to "MT won't be good because he might have Brees again".

I only said “might” in response to another poster mentioning that he’s not retiring for sure.  I thought he was retiring 100%.

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Just now, Kevrunner said:

I only said “might” in response to another poster mentioning that he’s not retiring for sure.  I thought he was retiring 100%.

Oh, gotcha. I think you were on the right track. He hasn't announced yet, but I think it's a pretty safe bet. 

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Brees and Thomas were rarely on the field together in 2020, so I don’t think there’s a sufficiently large sample size to draw conclusions from there.  To your other point, I mentioned up-thread how Kamara’s usage and targets/receptions remained almost eerily stable over the past three seasons, so I must disagree that that was in any way a factor.

I guess we’ll just have to disagree on my Kamara take, even though  he scored 15 more TDs and had over 350 more total yards in 2020 than he did in 2019 and that was with Taysom Hill only giving him 1 target over a 2 game period.  I think it is a big factor but I really do respect your take on it also.  It’s going to be interesting to see who Thomas does from here on out.  

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-heres-how-saints-can-dig-out-of-2021-salary-cap-mess-potential-cap-casualties-and-restructures/amp/


No matter what happens with the QB situation, the fact remains that the Saints are in complete salary cap hell. There are going to be a lot of changes in New Orleans regardless. They’ve been restructuring deals and manipulating the system for so long that it has finally caught up to them and their Final Notice just showed up and the rent is due. This year was their last chance to win, their window to being a legitimate championship contender is officially closed IMO.

Edited by Dislimb
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In a dynasty league who wins the following trade? PPR

SIDE A : gets Micheal Thomas and Marlon Mack

SIDE B : gets Ceedee Lamb

 

which side wins?

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1 hour ago, SyNdicateZ said:

In a dynasty league who wins the following trade? PPR

SIDE A : gets Micheal Thomas and Marlon Mack

SIDE B : gets Ceedee Lamb

 

which side wins?

I think the assistant coach forum wins this one.

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Just now, Boudewijn said:

My pleasure mr admin.

lol. The Assistant coach forums doesnt have as much traffic. Figured Id post hefe and bend one of my rules.. ;)

 

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14 hours ago, SyNdicateZ said:

In a dynasty league who wins the following trade? PPR

SIDE A : gets Micheal Thomas and Marlon Mack

SIDE B : gets Ceedee Lamb

 

which side wins?

Thomas and Mack.

Lamb is a really good young player, but Thomas can win people championships next year. 

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18 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

My pleasure mr admin.

tumblr_n1wly85oaG1smcbm7o1_500.gif

My post has yet to be moved by one of my assistants. Heads are about to roll!

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6 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Thomas and Mack.

Lamb is a really good young player, but Thomas can win people championships next year. 

UPDATE: Because I know you all care.

I ended up trading away Lamb and got Odell and a 2021 2nd overall rookie pick instead

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46 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

UPDATE: Because I know you all care.

I ended up trading away Lamb and got Odell and a 2021 2nd overall rookie pick instead

That's a big bet on OBJ. You expecting him to stay in Cleveland?

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On 1/26/2021 at 8:36 PM, Dislimb said:

"No matter what happens with the QB situation, the fact remains that the Saints are in complete salary cap hell. There are going to be a lot of changes in New Orleans regardless. They’ve been restructuring deals and manipulating the system for so long that it has finally caught up to them and their Final Notice just showed up and the rent is due. This year was their last chance to win, their window to being a legitimate championship contender is officially closed IMO."

Some time back this was part of the reasoning for Brees getting done. Makes no sense to bring him back. It's also hard to buy into believing there aren't enough players around him. We're all aware that at one point, over the last several seasons they were 8-0 w/o him. 

I'd draft a guy & roll with Winston, but I suspect it will be Hill. Thomas is apt to be discounted a bit, so he could be a value where you get him. With Hill I think it's Kamara who I'd likely pass on. 

 

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6 hours ago, ajs723 said:

That's a big bet on OBJ. You expecting him to stay in Cleveland?

Doesnt matter to me whether he leaves or not. Im just hoping he is healthy next year..

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