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Michael Thomas 2020 Outlook


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1 hour ago, JacobThunder15 said:

Chris carson is a sell high, and will fuller has an injury every year. Its not far fetched

 

A team that has Thomas and lost its opener should be considering taking a deal like this. Thomas is probably going to sit until week 7.  A team that has already lost a game may not have the luxury to sit and wait that long. 

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Damn. You got it like that huh. I don’t think I know 1 surgeon, let alone multiples. What the heck are you doing here with us peasants. 

And F Sean Payton for having him out there when the game was decided and all the other backups were in.  

How it started: How it’s going:

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2 hours ago, TheBoondocks said:

He should get IR'd till Week 7 since they have a  Week 6 bye. I have first round stock in Thomas this year, and it's unfortunate but I'm not gonna cry over it. Just gotta hope some gems pop up on waivers so I can stay afloat in my leagues with MT shares.

Thomas is not Devante (who I had last year lol - I live in a world of 1st round headaches apparently). He's already telling coaches he's fine and wants out there as soon as possible. Whether they let him or not is up in the air. He'll for sure be out this week. Buuuuut, this dude has only missed 1 game in his career. I'm not so sure about a 5 game leave of absence quite yet....especially if they lose without him this week.

Edited by TennisDude
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Having a hard time evaluating this guys value right now. When healthy, he is the consensus #1 WR, with a (usual) floor of 15-20 in ppr formats. There's a reason he was ranked in the top 6-7 picks this year, the man is unreal and a foundation for any fantasy team. 

So, the temptation to trade for him now while his value is the lowest it'll be all year most likely barring injury is super high. It's a move that you could look back on and say, yeah, that's when I won my league this year. As it's totally possible for you to trade your WR2/3 or even RB2/3 for him depending on your current roster.

For example, if I were to trade for him (say for DJ Chark, a borderline WR1/2, my roster when he is hopefully healthy after he takes a few weeks off would look something like this:

QB: Cam

WRs: Thomas, Godwin, Ridley

RBs: CMC, Hunt

TE: Kelce

Flex: RoJo

 

That's three of the top players at their position, and I am not alone in this. There are likely other owners out there staring down a similar decision.

 

What kind of value does he have on the trade market right now for you all? What would you trade for him, and Thomas owners (sorry about him) what would it take for you to trade him?

 

Edit: (I am gonna do some analysis on what he is currently being traded for with Yahoo's trade market feature. Will post results here.)

 

Edited by next big thing cp84
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1 minute ago, FitzMagic said:

I wonder how long we have to wait on this decision? Would love to IR him and move on with the task at hand.

Something tells me he's not going to IR and he'll try to be back by week 4 or 5. Not sure how I feel about it, but that's the sense I get.

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13 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

 

A team that has Thomas and lost its opener should be considering taking a deal like this. Thomas is probably going to sit until week 7.  A team that has already lost a game may not have the luxury to sit and wait that long. 

I was offered crowder and goedert in half ppr. I have need at both positions. Not sure what to do 

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13 hours ago, Terrapinstation said:

Thomas, Golloday, Conner, Mack.  F fantasy football.  I'll be drafting QBs in the 1st rd from now on.  

BTW,I wasn't laughing at you but at the comment as anyone whose played this game long enough feels your pain.

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8 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Yeah, but I think Thomas is going to fight to stay off IR in hopes that he can back by week 4. 

Ya, if Thomas is pushing them hard to keep him off IR then you'd have to think he wants back week 3 or 4. Of course week 3 is a monster game with the Packers. 

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14 hours ago, Terrapinstation said:

And F Sean Payton for having him out there when the game was decided and all the other backups were in.  

Seriously. What the hell with that? He gets like 3 targets the entire game AND he's left out to run out the clock with the scrubs and gets injured as a result. Is he in Payton AND Brees's dog house for some reason?

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Alright, so I did some analysis of the trades that have gone through for Michael Thomas since the injury news. There are some bad ones out there, but after analyzing the value of the trades here are the statistics about how Thomas is currently being valued in Yahoo leagues (value is based on fantasypros 0.5 ppr expert consensus rest of season rankings, found here)

When Thomas is being traded for another player straight up (1 for 1) the average value that is being returned to the Thomas owner is the 36.6th overall player

Players around the 30-40 range are (bolded if involved in 1 for 1 trade analyzed): Golladay, Ertz, Sanders, AJ Brown, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, DJ Chark, Terry Mclaurin, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett. 

 

When Thomas is being traded for two other players (1 for 2) the average value that is being returned to the Thomas owner are the 37.85th and 116.4th overall players. 

As with most 1 for 2 trades, which depending on situation are more than likely to return better long term for the owner getting the single player, these trades give the owner receiving Michael Thomas the best chance of getting a good deal based on depth of roster.

For context, here are the players ranked 41-45 (bolded if involved in 1 for 1 trade analyzed): DK Metcalf, James Conner, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Cooper Kupp.

 

------For fun-----

Most common players involved in a trade for Michael Thomas were: AJ Brown (3 times), DK Metcalf (3 times), JuJu (2 times), Odell Beckham (2 times), Chris Carson (2 times).

Worst trade packages analyzed for Michael Thomas (and left out of averages as they would have skewed the data😞)

Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill for Jonathan Taylor and Cedee Lamb 

Michael Thomas and Travis Kelce for Amari Cooper, Cedee Lamb, and James Robinson

Michael Thomas and Drew Brees for Jerry Jeudy and Leonard Fournette

Michael Thomas for Saquon Barkley and Jarvis Landry

---------------------

Disclaimer: This analysis was done to get a rough estimate of his trade value right now. The data could be skewed in the fact that it comes from Yahoo leagues where we don't know the league settings which could massively skew MT's value (i.e. weird scoring or dynasty). 

TL;DR - Average trade value with trades analyzed for Thomas 1 for 1 is the 36th overall player (Golladay, Sanders, Cooper, ODB, Chark, Chris Carson range)

Edited by next big thing cp84
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Whether or not you make a "panic trade" to get rid of Thomas is going to be very dependent on your league and your situation.  If you are in a league that lets too many teams in the playoffs - say 8 of 12, or 6 of 10 (6 of 12 is debatable), you might just want to ride your luck and hope to make the playoffs regardless.  If you are in a more competitive league that lets in 4 of 12, 4 of 10 (although 10-team leagues are so shallow that they tend to be a different beast anyway), 6 of 14, etc., and you lost your opener, don't delude yourself into thinking you can wait until Thomas returns in Week 7.  By that time you may well be 1-5 or 2-4 without a trade and you'll be needing to basically win out to make the playoffs.

Far too many people dig themselves into these intractable positions: "I'm not going to let myself be taken advantage of."  "I'm not going to let Team X get a 'monster team' by trading him Thomas."  Etc.  More often than not, they miss the playoffs just because of their pride and they have a guy like Thomas in their lineup for the 7th-place consolation final.

If you have Thomas, you need to take a hard look at your roster and figure out how strong it is with Thomas on the shelf.  Maybe you hit on a bunch of lower picks: a great RB in the 2nd, Jonathan Taylor in the 5th, a WR or two after round 6 that looks like they can ball out (Fuller, maybe?) and you have a strong team even without Thomas.  Then you might want to just roll with it.  But if you had an average draft and started 0-1?  Gut check time.

Big kudos to @next big thing cp84 for his post.  Study that if you're thinking of dealing Thomas.  And by the way that post confirmed my gut feeling that the offer someone else listed of Fuller and Carson for Thomas was a steal.

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1 hour ago, Ceco2 said:

I just traded MT and JT for Julio and Chark in full PPR. What do you guys think about that? 

You've already made the trade, so why are you coming in here? To gloat? To get a pat on the back? Take the JV rubbish out of here...

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7 minutes ago, Ceco2 said:

Sorry didn't realize there was a specific place for this kind of stuff. Thanks for the info. 

No worries, it takes time to figure out. I still get in trouble sometimes . I figure helping out is better than being a jerk 😁.

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2 hours ago, Ceco2 said:

Just genuinely asking for advice, sorry.

All good.

People are rabid about things being in their proper place here... with one exception. 

If there is any sort of controversy between 2 running backs (examples: RoJo vs Fournette, Conner vs Snell) anybody with any stake in either of them is free to go into either player's thread and throw flame all over the place.

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