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Josh Jacobs 2020 Outlook


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FTFY

He's got the most rushing attempts in the league.  He's getting Trent Brown and Ruggs back this week.  Not worried at all.

CEH owner is going to enjoy the ride.  Now, back to your regularly scheduled Josh Jacobs programming.  

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3 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

So weird he wasn't used more, didn't seem hurt although maybe they were being cautious with his ankle as that's the only thing I can think of but there was no evidence of that, seems like Gruden's just outsmarting himself.

 

They were still in the playoff hunt. They weren't being cautious with him. Gruden was doing everything Gruden thought he should to win that game. Since week 7 his carries have been weirdly sporadic from single digit touches to 31. There were plenty of games where he was barely moving the ball for a number of reasons, but last night was not one of them and it's pretty baffling. 

And I get the scenario where you score a TD and leave time on the clock for the other team to score a TD. But the chances of them getting into field goal range statistically have to be much higher than them driving the ball down the field for a touchdown. Especially when they had no timeouts. Take the TD and if you want to go for 2. 

It was wildly satisfying for the Raiders to lose that game after seeing Jacobs with 6 points on my championship roster. But I'm not going to complain. He was like RB8 in my ppr league going into this game. All these people saying DND is ridiculous. Taking him in the middle of the second after the board was wiped with RBs, you could do a lot worse. Especially considering the year of quite a few guys drafted before him.

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I don't apologize folks. He let me down as well. Im glad they lost with him doing that on the one yard line. It shows why you should just score the td, because they should have known their defense sucks. take what you can get. Then he decides he is Houdini. He looked electric during the game, but Gruden had other ideas.

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3 hours ago, CletisVanDamme said:

Cant wait to not draft him next year.  Tired of seeing him come up lame, working out some ailment on the sideline, hoping for at least a TD, but usually getting 8 points.  2020s Jeremy Hill.

 

His ADP heading into the year was RB10 overall and he is finishing the season as the RB8 overall. What else were you hoping for?

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39 minutes ago, FlashGordon401 said:

 

Not great. I don't remember Jacobs having any sort of a history of off field issues. Probably 2-4 game suspension to start next year. 

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Even if Jacobs did anything wrong (unknown), will he even serve a suspension?  You may recall the Melvin Gordon situation sort of just got put into the memory hole.

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38 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

Even if Jacobs did anything wrong (unknown), will he even serve a suspension?  You may recall the Melvin Gordon situation sort of just got put into the memory hole.

Gordon could still get suspended. His case continues in a few weeks actually. The difference here is that Gordon got pulled over for speeding, and had been drinking. Jacobs smashed his car. One is much worse optics, IMO. 

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19 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

His ADP heading into the year was RB10 overall and he is finishing the season as the RB8 overall. What else were you hoping for?

yah because he only missed one game, which is nice. but he also had 9 or less pts in 6 of the 14 games he was healthy. he did nothing in week 16. yah i'm not drafting him. not a fan of boom bust players that are td dependent to boom. 

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Jacobs will probably be one of my highest owned players next year, particularly with this DUI news and I think he's a screaming buy in dynasty. I hear so many people starting to talk about him as a bust/fading him next year but he has b2b 1000 yard rushing seasons to start his career and 19 total TD's. To put the start of his career in perspective here are the only other running backs that were drafted at 21 years old who had 400+ fantasy points in their first 28 games: 

Walter Payton

Barry Sanders

Emmitt Smith

Marshall Faulk

Edgerrin James

Clinton Portis

MJD

Marshawn Lynch

Ray Rice

LeSean McCoy

Le'Veon Bell

Ezekiel Elliott

CMC

Saquon

This is a who's who list of stud running backs who had fantastic careers. Everyone is going to focus on his mediocre 3.9 YPC without realizing that this is one of the most meaningless data points in fantasy. The Raiders o-line was ravaged by injuries/covid and Jacobs was last in the league in yards before contact but first in the league in forced miss tackles, which says a lot about his ability to produce even behind a porous o-line. The most legitimate concern with him is the passing game usage, however, he has shown great hands and ability in the open field when utilized as a receiver and the only thing holding him back in this department is Gruden. However, he did increase his reception total from 20 in year one to 33 in year 2 and has shown that he can be a perennial 50 catch running back if given the opportunity. Jacobs is a great talent and the company he keeps to start his career would suggest that he will continue to be a stud. Buy, buy, buy. 

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3 minutes ago, TroutFister said:

yah because he only missed one game, which is nice. but he also had 9 or less pts in 6 of the 14 games he was healthy. he did nothing in week 16. yah i'm not drafting him. not a fan of boom bust players that are td dependent to boom. 

 

Incorrect, in PPR he had 9 points or fewer in 4 games. Here are the only RB's that had 9 points or fewer in less games than him: Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, James Robinson and Chris Carson. That's it. Chubb and Carson both missed at least 4 games. Derrick Henry had the same amount of 9 point or fewer games as Jacobs, albeit with a far higher ceiling but that is why he was being drafted significantly higher than Jacobs in fantasy.

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25 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Incorrect, in PPR he had 9 points or fewer in 4 games. Here are the only RB's that had 9 points or fewer in less games than him: Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, James Robinson and Chris Carson. That's it. Chubb and Carson both missed at least 4 games. Derrick Henry had the same amount of 9 point or fewer games as Jacobs, albeit with a far higher ceiling but that is why he was being drafted significantly higher than Jacobs in fantasy.

no, 6.

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26 minutes ago, TroutFister said:

no, 6.

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Looks like you're playing 1/2 PPR, whereas in PPR he had a 9.3, 10.3, 6.1, and 5.4.  Aside from the game he missed.

The problem with JJ is obvious.  The guy is a zero in the pass game.  What happened to the Gruden talk about him being used as a pass catcher?  He had 6 targets in week 1 and then I don't believe saw that many ever again.  The Raiders seem to have a carousel of boring third down backs that they seem to trust more.  So if he's not a pass catcher, then he is indeed TD dependent.  Or he needs to smash it on the ground at a rate higher than everyone else.  Essentially he has to be Derrick Henry, and we know he is not.

Then again, to the point above, Henry is drafted high because he produces more.  But this guy was a second round pick in most leagues.  So he was a disappointment to say the least.

There might be talk in the offseason about involving him more in the pass game.  But why should we believe it?  "Gruden likes a workhorse and wants a Cadillac".  Meh, I'll believe it when I see it.

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9 minutes ago, CooL said:

Looks like you're playing 1/2 PPR, whereas in PPR he had a 9.3, 10.3, 6.1, and 5.4.  Aside from the game he missed.

The problem with JJ is obvious.  The guy is a zero in the pass game.  What happened to the Gruden talk about him being used as a pass catcher?  He had 6 targets in week 1 and then I don't believe saw that many ever again.  The Raiders seem to have a carousel of boring third down backs that they seem to trust more.  So if he's not a pass catcher, then he is indeed TD dependent.  Or he needs to smash it on the ground at a rate higher than everyone else.  Essentially he has to be Derrick Henry, and we know he is not.

Then again, to the point above, Henry is drafted high because he produces more.  But this guy was a second round pick in most leagues.  So he was a disappointment to say the least.

There might be talk in the offseason about involving him more in the pass game.  But why should we believe it?  "Gruden likes a workhorse and wants a Cadillac".  Meh, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

His ADP was the RB10 going into the season and he finished as the RB8. That is not what anyone should consider a disappointment, he delivered on his ADP.

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41 minutes ago, TroutFister said:

no, 6.

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You realize that is 1/2 PPR whereas the majority of fantasy gamers play in PPR, which he only had 4 games of 9 or less points in.

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8 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

His ADP was the RB10 going into the season and he finished as the RB8. That is not what anyone should consider a disappointment, he delivered on his ADP.

Well, sure, if you look at it that way.  Most people drafted him in the second.  Surely in part because of the preseason talk of how Gruden was going to throw him the ball and run him till the treads came off.  And then he smashed in week 1, to the tune of 3 TDs, almost a hundy, and 4 catches for 46 yards.  PPR RB 1 that week.  And then the rest of the season?  WTH happened?  So after week 1, all of his owners thought the value they got on him was tremendous in terms of where he was drafted.  And then as the season went along, you're realizing, "nah, he's not what I hoped he was going to turn out to be after that week 1 performance".  So in my opinion, that is a disappointment.

Given how his season went, he should have been a screaming sell high candidate.  You could have flipped him for somebody like Jonathan Taylor who surely brought home boatloads of ships to his owners.  But that's all hindsight.

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So he wasn't bad this year but his stats are a little misleading for fantasy in that he had a huge game week 1 and big game week 17 when it didn't count. In between he had 7 total TDs over 15 games and only 4 of those games where he totaled over 90 yards, including receiving.  I'm still optimistic going forward since his OL was in bad shape this year and his season overall was still decent all things considered.

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40 minutes ago, CooL said:

Well, sure, if you look at it that way.  Most people drafted him in the second.  Surely in part because of the preseason talk of how Gruden was going to throw him the ball and run him till the treads came off.  And then he smashed in week 1, to the tune of 3 TDs, almost a hundy, and 4 catches for 46 yards.  PPR RB 1 that week.  And then the rest of the season?  WTH happened?  So after week 1, all of his owners thought the value they got on him was tremendous in terms of where he was drafted.  And then as the season went along, you're realizing, "nah, he's not what I hoped he was going to turn out to be after that week 1 performance".  So in my opinion, that is a disappointment.

Given how his season went, he should have been a screaming sell high candidate.  You could have flipped him for somebody like Jonathan Taylor who surely brought home boatloads of ships to his owners.  But that's all hindsight.

 

Facts are facts. He was a mid-range RB1 in 2020 and delivered on his ADP whether you like it or not. Just because he never repeated his week 1 performance doesn't change that. The other RB's being drafted around him were CEH, Mixon, Ekeler, Chubb, Jones and Drake. He was more valuable than all but 2 of those players and it's a toss up on whether you would have wanted Jacobs or Chubb (who missed 4 games with injury).

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5 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

You realize that is 1/2 PPR whereas the majority of fantasy gamers play in PPR, which he only had 4 games of 9 or less points in.

Does it matter? It's relative anyways because it's not like Jacobs is some kind of PPR monster. And because he's NOT a ppr beast, he's ranked HIGHER in HALF PPR (ranked 13th) than FULL PPR in terms of average (ranked 15th)* which goes against your narrative. lol.

Anyways semantics...In my PPR league Jacobs had an average score of 15.42 ppg, the number 25 back was melvin gordon at 13.23. So look at how many games Jacobs was at least NOT a rb2 in the games he played in a PPR league.

* ranking average includes antonio williams

 

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So in 7 of his 14 games he was NOT an RB2 in terms of an average RB2 back (13.23 pts or lower). 

In 10 of his 14 games, he had 13.8 pts or less which has him as a BOTTOM tier RB2 at best. 

 

This is a break down of a league that the "majority of fantasy gamers play"

Yah i'm not gambling on a guy that booms for 4 games because he falls into the end zone a few times, and is a ho hum low end rb2 or bust in the remaining games. What's also bad, for a guy that averages slightly over 2 receptions a game, he only rushed over 100 yards twice. 

The only positive i see in jacobs was that fact that he only missed 1 game this year, as he missed 3 the year before. But based on field performance, you don't draft a guy like jacobs in the top 2 rounds. BUYER BEWARE. More often than not, Jacobs ISN'T helping you win your week which is kind of the point of drafting a player in the early rounds. 

And you mentioned CEH, Mixon, Ekeler, Chubb, Jones and Drake....4 of those guys had better averages. 

 

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5 hours ago, CooL said:

Well, sure, if you look at it that way.  Most people drafted him in the second.  Surely in part because of the preseason talk of how Gruden was going to throw him the ball and run him till the treads came off.  And then he smashed in week 1, to the tune of 3 TDs, almost a hundy, and 4 catches for 46 yards.  PPR RB 1 that week.  And then the rest of the season?  WTH happened?  So after week 1, all of his owners thought the value they got on him was tremendous in terms of where he was drafted.  And then as the season went along, you're realizing, "nah, he's not what I hoped he was going to turn out to be after that week 1 performance".  So in my opinion, that is a disappointment.

Given how his season went, he should have been a screaming sell high candidate.  You could have flipped him for somebody like Jonathan Taylor who surely brought home boatloads of ships to his owners.  But that's all hindsight.

buddy keeps talking about his overall ranking, being oblivious of the fact his number was inflated by his week 1 anomaly...more often than not, jacobs WAS NOT HELPING YOU WIN. I mean is this guy also propping up lockett because he was the overall no.8 WR in PPR, but a WR4 or worse in 10 or so games? That KIND of extreme volatility in a game of randomness are NOT the types that help you win leagues... they might help you win a week, but are you sure you can trust em on weeks 14, 15, 16? Oh hellllll nah.

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