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Kenny Golladay 2020 Outlook


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Two seasons in a row of 65+ rec and 1000+ yards - can he get to the next level and get to 1200, 1300 1400 yards?

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Golladay is an interesting case: he is a deep threat and gets 18 yd per catch (one of the highest of all the top receivers of each team, and not surprisingly he also has the lowest catch rates to match it.

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(as you can see, receivers that are used deeper generally have a lower catch rate - seeing this makes what Brown and Diggs do even more awesome).
For Golladay a third of his catches went for more than 20 yards and 20% went even 30 yards or more, which is a lot. He also did that with 3 different QBs, 

The other interesting thing is that Golladay went from 5 to 11 TDs. That's not really due to increased red zone usage (although that did increase a bit) but mostly due to 5 long TDs, where in 2018 he had 5 long runs strand in the final 10 yards. For example, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8bwkm07Tzc

 

As the Detroit Offense was a huge mess in 2019 (3 QBs, Marvin Jones injured, Kerryon injured), I guess it's anybody's guess what this mess will look like in 2020 - I'm going to go for 70/1200 season with 8 TD. That should give him a good season, but the expectations are high at WR7 (current ranking). Let's hope bad offense, injury or and bad luck won't harm him too much.

 

 

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I would rather go down with the motha ******** pontoon boat if i received that poop dick of an offer. 

Kenny Golladay (hamstring) out for Week 1 (One week later) "...The issue here is the pain Golladay would feel when trying to raise his arms above his head to catch passes. "    

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  • 1 month later...

pretty boom or bust (who isnt outside thomas, adams, julio- ppr)

 

how much difference between kenny vs hill?

hill had about 6 or 7 games of around 12 full ppr pt games and under (2018)  132 targets

kenny had 7 (2 out of 8 games with stafford) 8 games with stafford - 35/640/7- 70/1280/14 124 targets (cant project those tds year 2 year)

stafford about 550-560 attempts last few years. any chance kenny gets larger share of targets? (140+) wr target leaders last year https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php

does mahomes upside vs stafford really account for $20 difference in price?

 

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14 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

pretty boom or bust (who isnt outside thomas, adams, julio- ppr)

how much difference between kenny vs hill?

hill had about 6 or 7 games of around 12 full ppr pt games and under (2018)  132 targets

kenny had 7 (2 out of 8 games with stafford) 8 games with stafford - 35/640/7- 70/1280/14 124 targets (cant project those tds year 2 year)

stafford about 550-560 attempts last few years. any chance kenny gets larger share of targets? (140+) wr target leaders last year https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php

does mahomes upside vs stafford really account for $20 difference in price?

I LOVE Golladay and think he can easily be a top 5 WR, but Tyreek>Golladay or really anyone outside of MT

The 2018 Hill stats are skewed by the Chiefs not being as pass heavy due to having Hunt. Last year Tyreek continued his improvement as a route runner and well rounded WR and it netted a higher floor. Hill has Mahomes for one but more than that he is schemed into the game in ways beyond just downfield passes

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You have to think KG is definitely finishing as mid to low-end WR1 with upside for more if he ever gets the targets he deserves, but that's been the story with him thus far (limited targets) so I think he'll continue to be a lower target, higher ADOT guy with some boom/bust but big boom and TD potential. I'd be happy to have him as my WR1 but would probably look to get a Woods type or someone stable to pair him with (ideally, not set in stone, of course).

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Kenny G, Kenny G.

I have been a 100% stock holder the past 2 seasons. And the only way I could describe Kenny G is, if he is your WR2 you are estatic, if he is your WR1 you would play him regardless of matchups of course but you would be nervous and would not be surprised to look at 3/60/0 or 4/80/0 lines a few games in the season. 
 

Not someone I would circle going into the draft like a Can’t Guard Mike or Cheetah. But if I am on the clock and Baby Tron is the best available option, I wouldn’t be mad or would regret drafting. 

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On 7/4/2020 at 9:13 AM, colepenhagen said:

pretty boom or bust (who isnt outside thomas, adams, julio- ppr)

 

how much difference between kenny vs hill?

hill had about 6 or 7 games of around 12 full ppr pt games and under (2018)  132 targets

kenny had 7 (2 out of 8 games with stafford) 8 games with stafford - 35/640/7- 70/1280/14 124 targets (cant project those tds year 2 year)

stafford about 550-560 attempts last few years. any chance kenny gets larger share of targets? (140+) wr target leaders last year https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php

does mahomes upside vs stafford really account for $20 difference in price?

 

I’m sorry what?

In 2018 Hill has 3 games under 12 points in PPR. He didn’t have a single game under 5. Golladay had 6 games under 12 and 3 under 5 last year. 

It’s not even close. He isn’t worth mentioning in the discussion with Hill. 

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27 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I’m sorry what?

In 2018 Hill has 3 games under 12 points in PPR. He didn’t have a single game under 5. Golladay had 6 games under 12 and 3 under 5 last year. 

It’s not even close. He isn’t worth mentioning in the discussion with Hill. 

i didnt factor in the 3 games when he sneaked over 12 pts with rushing yds.

still had 4. not 3.... week 3- 2/52/0 5 rush yds, week 8- 3/70/0, week 13 -1/37/0 37 rush yds, week 15- 4/46/0 -5 rush yd

 

with rushing - week 5- 4/61/0 21 rush yds,  week 9 - 4/69/0 16 rush yds, week 16

 

only really one game with stafford that he didnt produce and one game where he had 2 targets. (seems unlikely to happen again)

but his ceiling comes down to if he gets and increase in targets and if stafford stays healthy. if those 2 things happen then you will be surprised.

obviously hill is safer and has mahomes but also coming at 20-25 even $30 difference. hill 50-55$ kenny 25-30$

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Noticed this today in Mike Clay's excellent CB/WR season matchup column:

"Detroit is set to face the easiest slate in all three of our categories: overall, against No. 1 receivers and against the slot. Golladay will generally receive No. 1 WR treatment...it's pretty clear sledding for this group, as the Lions will face 12 CB units I have ranked in the bottom half of the league and only one I have ranked better than ninth (Saints)"

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13 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Noticed this today in Mike Clay's excellent CB/WR season matchup column:

"Detroit is set to face the easiest slate in all three of our categories: overall, against No. 1 receivers and against the slot. Golladay will generally receive No. 1 WR treatment...it's pretty clear sledding for this group, as the Lions will face 12 CB units I have ranked in the bottom half of the league and only one I have ranked better than ninth (Saints)"

 

Fire up the late round pick Stafford and Golladay connection!

 

Denzel Washington Boom Gif 

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  • 1 month later...

Was pacing for 124 targets, 1,280 yards, and 14 TDs for the year prior to Stafford's injury.  Positive camp reports so far.  Lions passing offense kind of floating under the radar right now.  Inconsistent running game likely.  Good to great QB throwing to him.  I am all in in Round 3.

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5 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Man I’m worried about this guy (drafted him in the 3rd anyways like an idiot). Any thoughts on who gets hurt more if hockenson emerges? Jones showing any signs of slowing down? On the plus side, this team should be throwing a lot. Golloday still relatively young too

Nothing to be worried about. Getting him in the 3rd is a steal. Congrats on your top 5 receive this year 

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