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Undervalued = Stefon Diggs at WR24. 1) Deep threat John Brown will lift coverage off of Diggs, something Diggs never had in Minnesota - it was the other way around. 2) Diggs will be a target hog and the focal point of the entire offense. WR1 finish in 2020.

 

Overvalued = Juju at WR12. His elite production early on all came with Antonio Brown, the best WR in the game, drawing double coverage regularly downfield, leaving the entire middle wide open and giving him easy 1-on-1 matchups. No Antonio Brown + diminishing Big Ben = ordinary production. Juju was horrible in 2019 without AB/Ben and will only be slightly better in 2020 with diminished Ben but no AB. Way overrated and overvalued right now. Yes, Diggs should be drafted before Juju and will no doubt be better in 2020.

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Chris Thompson electric? That's overstating it a bit, isn't it? He's a veteran who hasn't played a full season since 2016, and the closest he'll come to being electric is when he's on the wire.

Overvalued - Eckeler . Rivers is a check down to his RB king. ... and hes Gone. Enter Tyrod who will run with it instead..... Undervalued - Allen Robinson. Robinson was good with fricken Trubisky

QBs far worse than Ryan Tannehill have supported fantasy WRs. Kittle is an elite TE on a run heavy offense. Ditto for Andrews. Moore a low WR1 on the run heavy Panthers with QBs way worse than Ta

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Overvalued - Eckeler . Rivers is a check down to his RB king. ... and hes Gone. Enter Tyrod who will run with it instead.....

Undervalued - Allen Robinson. Robinson was good with fricken Trubisky....Imagine what Robinson will accomplish with a real QB..... 

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Overvalued -   Evans WR Tampa -  Tom Brady has 2 great TE, and a fantastic slot WR in Godwin already.  Winston was a gunslinger, Brady is a short quick throw speciaist

 

Undervalued - Slayton - He is in line for a much bigger role going forward.

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5 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

AJ Brown is probably the most overvalued player of any.

Sounds like what I was saying when the Godwin hype started to grow last offseason.

This time I’m gonna trust the talent

Overvalued is Juju to me (by a lot) and maybe Evans with Brady in town. I think Winston for fantasy was better for his skillset

I say Moore is undervalued. Not a big Teddy fan but he loves the short-intermediate routes that Moore excels in

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48 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Sounds like what I was saying when the Godwin hype started to grow last offseason.

This time I’m gonna trust the talent

Overvalued is Juju to me (by a lot) and maybe Evans with Brady in town. I think Winston for fantasy was better for his skillset

I say Moore is undervalued. Not a big Teddy fan but he loves the short-intermediate routes that Moore excels in


Godwin was in one of the most statistically prolific passing offenses of all time. Brown has Ryan Tannehill and is in a run-first ball control offense. I don’t really care how good Brown is, using a pick that high on WR in that type of offense is not a winning formula when, at that ADP, you can have a comparable talent on a team actually looking to air it out.

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15 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:


Godwin was in one of the most statistically prolific passing offenses of all time. Brown has Ryan Tannehill and is in a run-first ball control offense. I don’t really care how good Brown is, using a pick that high on WR in that type of offense is not a winning formula when, at that ADP, you can have a comparable talent on a team actually looking to air it out.

QBs far worse than Ryan Tannehill have supported fantasy WRs.

Kittle is an elite TE on a run heavy offense. Ditto for Andrews. Moore a low WR1 on the run heavy Panthers with QBs way worse than Tannehill. Case Keenum supported two WR2s in Diggs+Thielen on a run heavy offense. TY Hilton did fine last year when healthy despite a run heavy tendencies. Same for Lockett and DK

If Brown was the 2nd WR on his own team I'd be more worried. The Titans playoff games were also not indicative of how their run-pass breakdown will look necessarily. They were playing from ahead and didn't need to throw in every game until the AFCCG

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19 hours ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Overvalued - Eckeler . Rivers is a check down to his RB king. ... and hes Gone. Enter Tyrod who will run with it instead.....

 

austin ekeler, according to fantasyfootballcalculator today, for half-point PPR, is going at 4.02.

i agree with your insight regarding tyrod's propensity to run, however at this ADP, i suggest ekeler is undervalued. 

we can expect ekeler's ADP to climb, but if you're drafting this week ekeler gets a green light at 4.02.

6 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

AJ Brown is probably the most overvalued player of any.

 

if your "overvalue" classification is based on regression in efficiency on a run-first offense, it makes sense. but 1) it's difficult to watch aj brown's tape from last season and not want him on your roster. and 2) at half-point PPR, aj brown's ADP is at 4.12. i love him at that price, and i would take him over gallup and landry (but not woods or metcalf), also in that price range. 

 

11 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Will be interesting to see how this topic changes with ADPs. 3 months to go let’s hope the season starts on time

 

good point. definitely will change hugely, especially entering june. but if you're drafting this week, according to ffcalculator, here's where we're at in half-PPR with ADP from march to may:

3.07 = lev bell = overvalued. who can say regarding frank gore, but one thing is for sure: you can trust in adam gase to screw you.

4.10 = mark ingram = undervalued. i love jk dobbins in dynasty, but this year it's ingram until the wheels fall off.

4.12 = david montgomery = undervalued. not expecting RB1 here, but the price is right. and i like him.

5.02 = kenyan drake = undervalued. has no business being here. prime candidate to shoot up two rounds next month.

5.07 = robert woods = undervalued. two rounds later than cooper kupp. a great guy to have for your 3rd WR.

 

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Overvalued - Kyler Murray. No way he should be the 4th QB off the board ahead of Wilson and Watson. Theres too much risk of a slump as the league adjusts to Arizonas offense.

 

Undervalued - Fournette. Over 1600 total yards and 76 receptions on a dumpster fire team that couldn't get a lead or run block? Trade rumors should boost his value. Currently a steal at his ADP.

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1 hour ago, sSektor said:

Overvalued - Kyler Murray. No way he should be the 4th QB off the board ahead of Wilson and Watson. Theres too much risk of a slump as the league adjusts to Arizonas offense.

 

Undervalued - Fournette. Over 1600 total yards and 76 receptions on a dumpster fire team that couldn't get a lead or run block? Trade rumors should boost his value. Currently a steal at his ADP.

 

Fournette isn't undervalued. The Jags signed electric 3rd down Back Chris Thompson, who played under Jay Gruden in Washington (Now OC in JAX) to eat into those 76 receptions. Jags will be trailing again in 2020, but unlike 2019 this time, it will be Chris Thompson catching dumpoffs instead of Fournette.

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1 hour ago, euphoriahbo said:

 

Fournette isn't undervalued. The Jags signed electric 3rd down Back Chris Thompson, who played under Jay Gruden in Washington (Now OC in JAX) to eat into those 76 receptions. Jags will be trailing again in 2020, but unlike 2019 this time, it will be Chris Thompson catching dumpoffs instead of Fournette.

Indeed. They didnt sign an Elite Pass catching rb for nuttin. PPR beast when Healthy.

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7 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

austin ekeler, according to fantasyfootballcalculator today, for half-point PPR, is going at 4.02.

i agree with your insight regarding tyrod's propensity to run, however at this ADP, i suggest ekeler is undervalued. 

we can expect ekeler's ADP to climb, but if you're drafting this week ekeler gets a green light at 4.02.

 

if your "overvalue" classification is based on regression in efficiency on a run-first offense, it makes sense. but 1) it's difficult to watch aj brown's tape from last season and not want him on your roster. and 2) at half-point PPR, aj brown's ADP is at 4.12. i love him at that price, and i would take him over gallup and landry (but not woods or metcalf), also in that price range. 

 

 

good point. definitely will change hugely, especially entering june. but if you're drafting this week, according to ffcalculator, here's where we're at in half-PPR with ADP from march to may:

3.07 = lev bell = overvalued. who can say regarding frank gore, but one thing is for sure: you can trust in adam gase to screw you.

4.10 = mark ingram = undervalued. i love jk dobbins in dynasty, but this year it's ingram until the wheels fall off.

4.12 = david montgomery = undervalued. not expecting RB1 here, but the price is right. and i like him.

5.02 = kenyan drake = undervalued. has no business being here. prime candidate to shoot up two rounds next month.

5.07 = robert woods = undervalued. two rounds later than cooper kupp. a great guy to have for your 3rd WR.

 

Agreed, getting Montgomery and or Drake in the 5th round is an absolute theft...Makes me wish I drafted now!

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Overvalued- AJ Brown. Beast talent in a terrible situation. AJB had 7 or more targets only 4 times the entire season and none of those were in the playoffs. He only had 82 total targets on the season. He will need at least 120-130 targets to be a WR1. Also AJB had insane YAC last year and that is almost definitely going to dip. Having D Henry to smash the ball in in the red zone and being on a run first team doesn’t help either. 
 

 

Undervalued - B Cooks. This guy is going in rounds 6-8 on FantasyPros DrFt Wizard right now. That is insane. He should have the potential to have blow up games when Will Fuller isn’t hurt and Will Fuller is going to get hurt. When that happens, combined with a diminished defense, Cooks could be a top 15 WR like he has been with three different teams and QBs already.

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On 5/17/2020 at 2:40 PM, hockeyfan77 said:

Agreed, getting Montgomery and or Drake in the 5th round is an absolute theft...Makes me wish I drafted now!

Drake especially.  No way he goes there in competitive leagues.   Expecting him to shoot up to the third 

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Drake especially.  No way he goes there in competitive leagues.   Expecting him to shoot up to the third 

 

I expect his ADP to rise to the 2nd round in ppr leagues.  

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Overvalued:

Waller. Raiders have real receivers now. He was never an elite talent--just a product of elite opportunity.

Aaron Jones. Still really good but that kind of TD efficiency has to regress

Undervalued:

Woods. He and Kupp will be about equal in PPR as TD rates equalize--both mid to low WR2s

Guice: Upside is too good to pass on for where he is being drafted

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QB

Overvalued - Lamar Jackson. Always fade the consensus #1 QB. High chance of injury, fluke TD rate will definitely regress.

Undervalued - Phillip Rivers - Could put up 4500/30 now that he's in a much better offensive environment. Will be drafted significantly later than his older counterparts: Brees, Ryan, Brady, Ben, so there's potential profit here.

RB

Overvalued - David Johnson and LeVeon Bell. Both are strict volume guys who were just awful last season. Not sure I want to invest RBs that look like theyre running in quicksand.

Undervalued - Matt Breida. Health is always an issue but he'll have a much clearer path to touches as part of a timeshare than a 4 man RBBC. Miami drafted 3 OL and should have an improved defense.

WR

Overvalued - Courtland Sutton - Much more competition: Broncos drafted Jeudy and Hamler. Signed Gordon to help in the redzone and on passing downs. Love his talent but If I can get someone like Metcalf a round later I'll pass.

Undervalued - Terry McLaurin. Scary Terry had the best contested catch rate in the NFL as a rookie! Ridiculous athletic profile and should be a target monster for the Skins. Might not even be drafted as a top 24 WR. Sign me up at that price

TE

Overvalued - Zach Ertz. He only finished as the TE5 despite leading his team by 50 targets. Goedert is emerging and played through most of 2019 with a calf injury. Eagles added Reagor and Goodwin. He's never finished as a top 2 TE.

Undervalued - Hayden Hurst. He put up 30-349-2 on a team with the fewest passing attempts in 2019 and now goes to the team that led the NFL with 684 attempts. Dirk Koetter's offenses are TE friendly.

Edited by Evincar
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13 minutes ago, Evincar said:

RB

Overvalued - David Johnson and LeVeon Bell. Both are strict volume guys who were just awful last season. Not sure I want to invest RBs that look like theyre running in quicksand.

What's wrong with being volume guys in high volume opportunities? I don't care if my RB is going for 20/75/1 or 15/75/1. They're both good options as RB2s which is where they are being drafted. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

What's wrong with being volume guys in high volume opportunities? I don't care if my RB is going for 20/75/1 or 15/75/1. They're both good options as RB2s which is where they are being drafted. 

 

Go Hawks and anyone else who would like to chime in please, how do you rank these two guys?  Curious to know, do you have a preference?  Can you please add Gurley in your overall assessment since he's appears to be a volume guy as well.

How would you rank them?

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38 minutes ago, Evincar said:

RB

Overvalued - David Johnson and LeVeon Bell. Both are strict volume guys who were just awful last season. Not sure I want to invest RBs that look like theyre running in quicksand.


Agreed. The people still chasing these guys are stuck in 2016. Gotta move on when it comes to RBs in fantasy.

Edited by MJJ28
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