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George Kittle 2020 Outlook


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"Singing hey diddle diddle with a Kittle in the middle..."

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We are now so used to having monster TE receivers that it's easy to overlook the achievement of Kittle - only 14 TEs in the past 30 years had multiple 1000yd seasons, and only 5 in history had multiple seasons before their 27th birthday (10 points if you can name the others besides the obvious Gronk and Kittle).

Having said that, now that we _are _ used to it, we'd very much like Kittle to get a third one, thank you very much. So we have to ask: what happened and why did Kittle go down from 88/1377/5 to 85/1054/5? And why doesn't he get more TDs, like 8 or 10?

I found that:
- despite the same number of receptions, Kittle actually did that on a lot fewer targets (down from 136 to 107)
- Kittle wasn't able to escape for long TD runs like he did in 2018 (when he had 6 40+ yard receptions)
- 2019 was mostly with Garoppolo, who spreads the ball around more (hence fewer targets but better catch rate). Better real life QB, but less beneficial to Kittle
- Kittle got plenty of use in the red zone (18 plays) but he just wasn't very effective there (2 TD). Instead Moster and Coleman had 6 TDs each in the RZ, and Bourne had 5. That really needs to improve. Kittle still gets most of his TDs outside the Red Zone, on long runs.

One last note: it turns out Kittle has been playing for 2 seasons with a torn labrum:
https://www.nfl.com/news/george-kittle-has-played-with-torn-labrum-since-2018-0ap3000001099361

Quote

"So I dislocated my shoulder last year," Kittle told the Pardon My Take podcast, per NBC Sports Bay Area, "and my labrum is completely torn. So I don't get surgery on it... [The protective sleeve] basically helps me, so it doesn't hurt all the time."

 

That's stunning. It's insane to think that he has done 2 seasons on a torn labrum, but it's even more insane he's not getting surgery.
I've been trying to find examples of young players who had torn labrums (Laviska Shenault is a recent one) but most of those recovered after surgery. It'll be really interesting (and scary, iof you own him) to see how that will go in the next seasons.

Edited by Boudewijn
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Lol Jesus man... can the guys trotting out Logan Thomas, Irv Smith, and Cole Kmet this week with Kittle on the IR at least dream??

Tell us more about your fantasy team. 

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Had always played redraft and never paid up for a TE in fantasy, but last year in my first ever dynasty startup I picked him in the 4th round (I think) and he came up huge in the fantasy playoffs while making it so I pretty much don't have to worry about TE for the next five years--even if he misses two games or so a season

Even as a Chiefs fan he is one of my favorite players in the league to watch

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14 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

"Singing hey diddle diddle with a Kittle in the middle..."

rawImage.jpg

We are now so used to having monster TE receivers that it's easy to overlook the achievement of Kittle - only 14 TEs in the past 30 years had multiple 1000yd seasons, and only 5 in history had multiple seasons before their 27th birthday (10 points if you can name the others besides the obvious Gronk and Kittle).

Having said that, now that we _are _ used to it, we'd very much like Kittle to get a third one, thank you very much. So we have to ask: what happened and why did Kittle go down from 88/1377/5 to 85/1054/5? And why doesn't he get more TDs, like 8 or 10?

I found that:
- despite the same number of receptions, Kittle actually did that on a lot fewer targets (down from 136 to 107)
- Kittle wasn't able to escape for long TD runs like he did in 2018 (when he had 6 40+ yard receptions)
- 2019 was mostly with Garoppolo, who spreads the ball around more (hence fewer targets but better catch rate). Better real life QB, but less beneficial to Kittle
- Kittle got plenty of use in the red zone (18 plays) but he just wasn't very effective there (2 TD). Instead Moster and Coleman had 6 TDs each in the RZ, and Bourne had 5. That really needs to improve. Kittle still gets most of his TDs outside the Red Zone, on long runs.

One last note: it turns out Kittle has been playing for 2 seasons with a torn labrum:
https://www.nfl.com/news/george-kittle-has-played-with-torn-labrum-since-2018-0ap3000001099361

 

That's stunning. It's insane to think that he has done 2 seasons on a torn labrum, but it's even more insane he's not getting surgery.
I've been trying to find examples of young players who had torn labrums (Laviska Shenault is a recent one) but most of those recovered after surgery. It'll be really interesting (and scary, iof you own him) to see how that will go in the next seasons.

I tore my labrum 4 years ago and I couldn't even put contacts in for the first few weeks after...It took me about 3 or 4 months to even lift my arm above my head(still hurts if I do it fast): Never had surgery...It hurts from time to time, especially if I lay on the shoulder the wrong way...It's crazy he has the range of motion to catch the ball...But you do kind of get used to it  

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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

"Singing hey diddle diddle with a Kittle in the middle..."

rawImage.jpg

We are now so used to having monster TE receivers that it's easy to overlook the achievement of Kittle - only 14 TEs in the past 30 years had multiple 1000yd seasons, and only 5 in history had multiple seasons before their 27th birthday (10 points if you can name the others besides the obvious Gronk and Kittle).

Having said that, now that we _are _ used to it, we'd very much like Kittle to get a third one, thank you very much. So we have to ask: what happened and why did Kittle go down from 88/1377/5 to 85/1054/5? And why doesn't he get more TDs, like 8 or 10?

I found that:
- despite the same number of receptions, Kittle actually did that on a lot fewer targets (down from 136 to 107)
- Kittle wasn't able to escape for long TD runs like he did in 2018 (when he had 6 40+ yard receptions)
- 2019 was mostly with Garoppolo, who spreads the ball around more (hence fewer targets but better catch rate). Better real life QB, but less beneficial to Kittle
- Kittle got plenty of use in the red zone (18 plays) but he just wasn't very effective there (2 TD). Instead Moster and Coleman had 6 TDs each in the RZ, and Bourne had 5. That really needs to improve. Kittle still gets most of his TDs outside the Red Zone, on long runs.

One last note: it turns out Kittle has been playing for 2 seasons with a torn labrum:
https://www.nfl.com/news/george-kittle-has-played-with-torn-labrum-since-2018-0ap3000001099361

 

That's stunning. It's insane to think that he has done 2 seasons on a torn labrum, but it's even more insane he's not getting surgery.
I've been trying to find examples of young players who had torn labrums (Laviska Shenault is a recent one) but most of those recovered after surgery. It'll be really interesting (and scary, iof you own him) to see how that will go in the next seasons.

Kittle had multiple td's called back due to penalties in games last year too, it was very frustrating haha. Positive td regression is coming. 

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My number 1 pick at the TE position.   He has a girlfriend in the medical tent that gives him special treatment.

He cannot be stopped when he gets crazy.

 

giphy.gif

 

 

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On 5/17/2020 at 10:53 AM, mmcc1029 said:

Kittle had multiple td's called back due to penalties in games last year too, it was very frustrating haha. Positive td regression is coming. 

I had him last year as well, I think it was at least 2-3 TDs called back by penalties, could have been more.

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On 5/20/2020 at 3:06 AM, ZappB said:

I had him last year as well, I think it was at least 2-3 TDs called back by penalties, could have been more.

Yes sir. I found at least these and 2 more came very close:

08/09/2019 49ers Buccaneers 1 12:00 2 5 TAM 8 Jimmy Garoppolo pass complete short right to George Kittle for 8 yards. Penalty on Kyle Juszczyk: Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards (no play)
08/09/2019 49ers Buccaneers 2 03:46 2 17 TAM 22 Jimmy Garoppolo pass complete short middle to George Kittle for 22 yards. Penalty on Mike McGlinchey: Illegal Formation, 5 yards (no play)
27/10/2019 49ers Panthers 1 01:21 2 1 CAR 9 Jimmy Garoppolo pass complete short left to George Kittle for 9 yards. Penalty on Deebo Samuel: Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards (no play)
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Why I love Kittle so much, outside of the fact that real life wise he is one of the most well rounded TE’s in the league. He is a straight dog in the run game and I think that’s partly why Shanny loves feeding him too. Besides all that..

We have seen multiple TE’s that have been red zone monster, but how many have we seen be this explosive? He mixes his 4.52 speed with his you ain’t F’n tackling me mentality and that has turn into multiple long run after the catch TDs. The last two years he has a long TDs of 62 and 85. That is ridiculous. 

A big play TE who is target 100+ on the year and is physical enough to be a red zone target.. mixed with a elite play caller and competent QB. He’s a dynasty dream and redraft easily worth a 2nd round pick this year imo. 


I honestly can’t believe this guy went in the 5th round of the NFL draft. That’s just embarrassing for all 32 NFL teams. 

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Not sure if this qualifies as smoke yet, but RW blurb today mentions that they're far apart in extension talks.  I think Kittle is one of the most underpaid players in the league, so this certainly at least has some potential to get hairy.   

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He's underpaid, and certainly deserves to be one of the higher paid TEs in the league, if not the highest.  Certainly he deserves more money than Austin Hooper.  But for his agent to say Kittle doesn't care what the tight end market is, but he's looking for more.  The heck?  Is that how it works?  He wants to be paid $20 million a year because he wants WR money?  I guess the line is blurred, he's as productive as some of the top WRs.  But again, is that how this market works?

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2 hours ago, CooL said:

But again, is that how this market works?

It should. He's the top receiver on his team, he brought them to the Superbowl, now he wants to get paid.

I don't think it will be how it works, given that a franchise tag would make his salary around half that. But I assume they'll end up somewhere in between - this is just negotiations.

He has been ridiculously underpaid until now and TE is not as easy to find good players asRB, so certainly he should get a nice chunk.

I do remember the 49ers drafted a TE btw, so maybe they saw this coming and wanted some insurance.

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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

It should. He's the top receiver on his team, he brought them to the Superbowl, now he wants to get paid.

I don't think it will be how it works, given that a franchise tag would make his salary around half that. But I assume they'll end up somewhere in between - this is just negotiations.

He has been ridiculously underpaid until now and TE is not as easy to find good players asRB, so certainly he should get a nice chunk.

I do remember the 49ers drafted a TE btw, so maybe they saw this coming and wanted some insurance.

Not to mention he’s one of, if not the best, Blocking TE in the league as well. There may not be a player more deserving of a huge contract extension in the league. 

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13 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

It should. He's the top receiver on his team, he brought them to the Superbowl, now he wants to get paid.

I don't think it will be how it works, given that a franchise tag would make his salary around half that. But I assume they'll end up somewhere in between - this is just negotiations.

He has been ridiculously underpaid until now and TE is not as easy to find good players asRB, so certainly he should get a nice chunk.

I do remember the 49ers drafted a TE btw, so maybe they saw this coming and wanted some insurance.


He’s not underpaid. The NFL in all its collective wisdom valued him as a 5th round pick which set him into a locked-in salary for his first 4 seasons.


But of course those “real football people” on all 32 teams that passed on him at least 4 times during the draft (taking 145 players ahead of him) know “so much more” about player evaluation than we do 🙄

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I also wonder how much the torn labrum he refuses to get fixed is on the mind of the negotiators.    There's no reason to say that he's for sure going to struggle later in his career, at the moment, however..........if 3 years from now he's suddenly missing games and playing through more pain than most of his peers, it can't be considered a total surprise either

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8 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I also wonder how much the torn labrum he refuses to get fixed is on the mind of the negotiators.    There's no reason to say that he's for sure going to struggle later in his career, at the moment, however..........if 3 years from now he's suddenly missing games and playing through more pain than most of his peers, it can't be considered a total surprise either

Just some info on Labrum tears: you can and have a long career without having surgery...It all depends on what type...Honestly, I don't think it has any impact on his negotiations 

 

 

https://www.howardluksmd.com/education/common-injuries/shoulder-labrum-labral-tears-is-surgery-necessary/

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You dont think niners are going to take that in to consideration?

Gtfo.

And now theyre talking about trading Dee to afford this guy? Going to end up like when seahawks gave up everthing for the unstoppable graham.

Gutting the team for a freaking TE. 

 

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He nees to be paid at the same level as a top WR.    He has just as good of hands as a WR, is a leader, and is also a  tremendous blocker.   He plays through pain and injury , and is all about the W.

I do not see a better TE in the game right now.

   

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TE1 2020 and I see no reason to not select him after the first 6 at every position or so have left the board; arguably before a few top RBs. Position scarcity makes this man an auto advantage to have on your squad. I'd take him early R2 to pair with a guy like Hop, Thomas, Godwin in R1.

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9 hours ago, itslarry said:

You dont think niners are going to take that in to consideration?

Gtfo.

 

 

Honesty no, as someone who is living with a torn labrum and the fact he has been elite for a couple years with it as my reasons...GTFO

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So much working in Kittle's favor this season before we consider his general dominance at the position:

- Deebo's broken foot and WRs history with this injury if they are rushed back too early

- Replacing a veteran (Sanders) with a very talented rookie (Aiyuk) and the learning curve that comes with that 

- Positive TD regression coming Kittle's way after only scoring 5 TDs the last two seasons

- SF's defense primed for at least a little bit of regression after last year's freakish season

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