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George Kittle 2020 Outlook


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1 hour ago, SvanE42 said:

So much working in Kittle's favor this season before we consider his general dominance at the position:

- Deebo's broken foot and WRs history with this injury if they are rushed back too early

- Replacing a veteran (Sanders) with a very talented rookie (Aiyuk) and the learning curve that comes with that 

- Positive TD regression coming Kittle's way after only scoring 5 TDs the last two seasons

- SF's defense primed for at least a little bit of regression after last year's freakish season

Imagine getting a top 5 pick and pairing him with a cmc, zeke, barkley type and a top 8 wr. 

This dude is a huge taret of mine if I get a top 3 pick in full ppr. 85-1300-8

Edited by nmartinez12443
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Lol Jesus man... can the guys trotting out Logan Thomas, Irv Smith, and Cole Kmet this week with Kittle on the IR at least dream??

Tell us more about your fantasy team. 

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^ I agree with both of you. Given the amazing depth at WR from the 2nd to 5/6th rounds. Kittle is a great find in the late 2nd round and even worth a mid 2nd round price tag. Anything in the 3rd would be a steal.

I'm not sure if he takes Kelce's #1 spot this year, but he's definitely proven to be a 1B to Kelce's 1A now, and you have to love his commitment to staying in elite shape throughout this offseason.

I do think Deebo's loss is a net neutral at best, because Kittle will be the only real threat for defenses to cue on in the passing game now, but that should be canceled out by increased volume.

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13 minutes ago, BornandbredHeel said:

Anyone at the 1st/2nd turn thinking of going back-to-back TE's?

 

 

depending on league size/settings/who is available this is brilliant ... kittle and kelce are essentially WR1s ... not only are you getting elite production, you are putting the rest of your league at a huge disadvantage at TE. If you can start 2 TEs, I would definitely consider this assuming backs like Mixon/Jacobs are off the board. After those backs and Tyreek Hill, I would absolutely take both Kittle/Kelce and get "WR1" production from the TE/Flex spot 

 

if you can't start both, then absolutely not. i hate drafting "trade bait". 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast
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42 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

depending on league size/settings/who is available this is brilliant ... kittle and kelce are essentially WR1s ... not only are you getting elite production, you are putting the rest of your league at a huge disadvantage at TE. If you can start 2 TEs, I would definitely consider this assuming backs like Mixon/Jacobs are off the board. After those backs and Tyreek Hill, I would absolutely take both Kittle/Kelce and get "WR1" production from the TE/Flex spot 

 

if you can't start both, then absolutely not. i hate drafting "trade bait". 

 

No, we do have the FLEX (WR/RB/TE) spot. It would force me to start them every week. Just something to ponder.

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40 minutes ago, BornandbredHeel said:

 

No, we do have the FLEX (WR/RB/TE) spot. It would force me to start them every week. Just something to ponder.

 

going to depend on who's available, but I would absolutely consider doing this. kudos for actually being able to think "outside the box". Points are points, Kelce/Kittle are elite producers. 

and you'll be putting the rest of your league at a huge TE disadvantage 

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5 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

going to depend on who's available, but I would absolutely consider doing this. kudos for actually being able to think "outside the box". Points are points, Kelce/Kittle are elite producers. 

and you'll be putting the rest of your league at a huge TE disadvantage 

How would it be a huge disadvantage? 

You draft both, one is a TE, one is in a flex spot vs all other positions.

The only disadvantage goes to the guy not getting the other TE (Kelce or Kittle).  Everything else is a wash.

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I'm kinda all over him in the second round if I can't nab Kelce. He may be needed more than ever. Such an advantage to hold one TE on the roster and focus on other positions. Not a bad idea to go RB/TE/WR/RB/WR/WR/RB. May be light on RB/WR, but Kittle should make up for it. 

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1 hour ago, JAG said:

How would it be a huge disadvantage? 

You draft both, one is a TE, one is in a flex spot vs all other positions.

The only disadvantage goes to the guy not getting the other TE (Kelce or Kittle).  Everything else is a wash.


No, Not only does the next guy lose them, it’s now pushing every other TE up the board - which impacts every other team as well. 
 

The guy taking Kittle now takes Ertz, the guy who was in line for Ertz is now taking ___ .... it’s not that difficult. 
 

Basic supply and demand.

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27 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


No, Not only does the next guy lose them, it’s now pushing every other TE up the board - which impacts every other team as well. 
 

The guy taking Kittle now takes Ertz, the guy who was in line for Ertz is now taking ___ .... it’s not that difficult. 
 

Basic supply and demand.

Interesting concept.  I've never seen a dude take two TEs at the onset of the draft, so I can't speak on experience.  But I also wouldn't panic and reach for the next tight end a round early just because the top 2 are gone.  I'd expect going in that if I have a shot at one, I'll take it.  If not, wait and let it play out.  Both are top 30 guys, but it doesn't force others upward just because one guy took 2.

Supply and demand doesn't exactly apply unless multiple teams choose to follow same strategy like if each of the top 9 picks are RBs and you sit 10th and are scared 11 and 12 take the 2 you like, or more, forcing your hand.  There are a handful of TEs that will be available after the draft that can be used as streamers.  A lot of FF players stream TEs, and this strategy won't affect them one bit.

Edited by JAG
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I like the idea, but I wouldn't do it. There's too many tier2 RBs and tier1 WRs available at the turn and even though you can recover at WR, you'd be at a pretty big disadvantage at RB. You'd have to absolutely hit on your 3rd or 4th round pick as RB or if you go zero RB/Waiver strategy. It just seems like too much would have to go right at your core positions.

Now, 2/3 turn? yep, I would but I expect only one of Kittle or Kelce would make it there, if either.

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4 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


No, Not only does the next guy lose them, it’s now pushing every other TE up the board - which impacts every other team as well. 
 

The guy taking Kittle now takes Ertz, the guy who was in line for Ertz is now taking ___ .... it’s not that difficult. 
 

Basic supply and demand.

 

maybe in a public free league but if I'm targeting Kittle why would I now draft Ertz earlier? I think everyone is basically in the "Kelce/Kittle/Andrews" or wait zone.. 

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24 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

maybe in a public free league but if I'm targeting Kittle why would I now draft Ertz earlier? I think everyone is basically in the "Kelce/Kittle/Andrews" or wait zone.. 


I didn’t say/mean take Ertz earlier ... it’s the simple fact that those 2 not being available - and on my team - limits not only the quantity of TE but also the quality of TE available to the rest of the league. 

They are in a tier by themselves as elite WR1s with TE eligibility.

Not only does this give me 2 elite fantasy producers in my lineup, it means the rest of the league has not only no chance at either - - but also the rest of the pool is diminished significantly in terms of difference making TEs. While most of the league has guys getting 3-5 points a week (standard), I’ve got WR1 Production in that spot and a “stud” in my flex spot too. Your actual WRs won’t be the best in the league, but it’s also a lot easier to find 1,000 yard WRs. 

I know it’s scary outside the box thinking, but it’s not that complicated. When I have both, not only do you not have 1 of the stud TEs, but the rest of the quality TEs available for the rest of the league has now been severely diminished. 
 

It effects every other team, not just the guy who was going to take Kittle after you took Kelce. A “ripple effect” if you will. 

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4 hours ago, JAG said:

Interesting concept.  I've never seen a dude take two TEs at the onset of the draft, so I can't speak on experience.  But I also wouldn't panic and reach for the next tight end a round early just because the top 2 are gone.  I'd expect going in that if I have a shot at one, I'll take it.  If not, wait and let it play out.  Both are top 30 guys, but it doesn't force others upward just because one guy took 2.

Supply and demand doesn't exactly apply unless multiple teams choose to follow same strategy like if each of the top 9 picks are RBs and you sit 10th and are scared 11 and 12 take the 2 you like, or more, forcing your hand.  There are a handful of TEs that will be available after the draft that can be used as streamers.  A lot of FF players stream TEs, and this strategy won't affect them one bit.


I didn’t say it means Ertz is now going way earlier than he should. I said/meant owning these 2 means the rest of the league’s options at TE have been significantly impacted ... in addition to these 2 being elite point producers. 
 

In the end, points are points. If I can land this production at a spot like TE, while the rest of the league fights for scraps - I’m at a big advantage over the rest. 
 

So yes, it is as simple as supply and demand. The supply effect is obvious, while the demand for the remaining top 5 guys only goes up. Owning both means : You don’t have either and most of the league will be getting mediocre/terrible production. 
 

I would only consider this if there wasn’t a RB/WR I loved available in round 2 ... at some point you’ve gotta take the studs and think outside the box a little bit (if you can start both) 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast
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54 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


I didn’t say/mean take Ertz earlier ... it’s the simple fact that those 2 not being available - and on my team - limits not only the quantity of TE but also the quality of TE available to the rest of the league. 

They are in a tier by themselves as elite WR1s with TE eligibility.

Not only does this give me 2 elite fantasy producers in my lineup, it means the rest of the league has not only no chance at either - - but also the rest of the pool is diminished significantly in terms of difference making TEs. While most of the league has guys getting 3-5 points a week (standard), I’ve got WR1 Production in that spot and a “stud” in my flex spot too. Your actual WRs won’t be the best in the league, but it’s also a lot easier to find 1,000 yard WRs. 

I know it’s scary outside the box thinking, but it’s not that complicated. When I have both, not only do you not have 1 of the stud TEs, but the rest of the quality TEs available for the rest of the league has now been severely diminished. 
 

It effects every other team, not just the guy who was going to take Kittle after you took Kelce. A “ripple effect” if you will. 

 

yeah enjoy that bro! 

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1 minute ago, JSA2422 said:

 

yeah enjoy that bro! 

I took kittle and kelce last tear, worked, ended up moving kelce in week two because i realized a had a hole in my team and so did the other team , got julio

 

its not a bad strat, can play them both, but after the draft, if u need to move one, theyre worth a wr1

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1 hour ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


I didn’t say/mean take Ertz earlier ... it’s the simple fact that those 2 not being available - and on my team - limits not only the quantity of TE but also the quality of TE available to the rest of the league. 

They are in a tier by themselves as elite WR1s with TE eligibility.

Not only does this give me 2 elite fantasy producers in my lineup, it means the rest of the league has not only no chance at either - - but also the rest of the pool is diminished significantly in terms of difference making TEs. While most of the league has guys getting 3-5 points a week (standard), I’ve got WR1 Production in that spot and a “stud” in my flex spot too. Your actual WRs won’t be the best in the league, but it’s also a lot easier to find 1,000 yard WRs. 

I know it’s scary outside the box thinking, but it’s not that complicated. When I have both, not only do you not have 1 of the stud TEs, but the rest of the quality TEs available for the rest of the league has now been severely diminished. 
 

It effects every other team, not just the guy who was going to take Kittle after you took Kelce. A “ripple effect” if you will. 

There is not going to be a ripple effect.  If there are 12 teams in your league, and you take both as you say, teams 1-11 will "fight" over the rest of the TEs.  So 1 team will still end up with Ertz.  1 team Andrews.  1 team Waller, and so on until you get to teams that waited and will stream.

You seem to think that there will be a team left holding an empty bag at the end, and I'm quite certain they will not.  There is not only 1 TE per owner FF-worthy TEs.

Also, since you insist this is such a slam dunk advantage over the rest of the league, I'll add what this has done to your team.  No Lamar or Mahomes.  The top available WR1s and RB1s are gone.  Depending on roster makeup, you will start a RB3 and a WR3 against other teams RB1 and WR1.  Also, the depth of the WRs doesn't work in your favor since your flex is taken.

I have 0 issue taking a top TE as it is an advantage.  I think the flaw in the argument as it pertains to your squad is the TE vs all comers at flex.  The lift you get is around 50 yearly points difference (vs taking a middle RB3/WR3).  You've lost at least that in not taking a RB1.  The other hit of not taking a WR1 is less but there went the advantage of taking a top guy at TE.  I'm not going to derail this thread any more, but the notion it is an advantage on all accords is not true.

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11 hours ago, JAG said:

There is not going to be a ripple effect.  If there are 12 teams in your league, and you take both as you say, teams 1-11 will "fight" over the rest of the TEs.  So 1 team will still end up with Ertz.  1 team Andrews.  1 team Waller, and so on until you get to teams that waited and will stream.

You seem to think that there will be a team left holding an empty bag at the end, and I'm quite certain they will not.  There is not only 1 TE per owner FF-worthy TEs.

Also, since you insist this is such a slam dunk advantage over the rest of the league, I'll add what this has done to your team.  No Lamar or Mahomes.  The top available WR1s and RB1s are gone.  Depending on roster makeup, you will start a RB3 and a WR3 against other teams RB1 and WR1.  Also, the depth of the WRs doesn't work in your favor since your flex is taken.

I have 0 issue taking a top TE as it is an advantage.  I think the flaw in the argument as it pertains to your squad is the TE vs all comers at flex.  The lift you get is around 50 yearly points difference (vs taking a middle RB3/WR3).  You've lost at least that in not taking a RB1.  The other hit of not taking a WR1 is less but there went the advantage of taking a top guy at TE.  I'm not going to derail this thread any more, but the notion it is an advantage on all accords is not true.

 

1. I never said "on all accords" ... quite the opposite, actually: 

"depending on league size/settings/who is available this is brilliant ... kittle and kelce are essentially WR1s ... not only are you getting elite production, you are putting the rest of your league at a huge disadvantage at TE. If you can start 2 TEs, I would definitely consider this assuming backs like Mixon/Jacobs are off the board. After those backs and Tyreek Hill, I would absolutely take both Kittle/Kelce and get "WR1" production from the TE/Flex spot 

2. I also never said a team will be left holding an empty bag ... I said that bag will eventually be left with absolute trash production and that is only exacerbated by the fact I now own 2 of the few difference making TEs (the "supply" meaning "of good TEs that make a difference in fantasy lineups"). I'm well aware there are more than 12 tight ends in the NFL, thank you.

3. The depth at WR applies to ... the WR position on rosters, not just the flex spot. I never said it had to be my flex spot. I said 1,000 yard WRs are a lot easier to find than TEs ... because they are. Again, basic supply and demand (29 players topped 1,000 yards last year; 3 were TEs / 25 were WRs - and 1 RB). 

 

Now let's have more fun with numbers ... Kelce and Kittle averaged 13 fantasy points/game last year in .5 PPR. The "Low End TE1" averaged 8/game. So, we're at a +5 advantage at TE  ... a flex/WR3 averaged 8.5 points/game ... oh snap, we're now at a 9-10 point advantage from TE/Flex ... and wow, I still may have RBs like Ekeler, Drake, Conner, Leveon Bell, Melvin Gordon, CEH, David Montgomery,  etc. available at my 3rd pick ... and wow, I still may have WRs like Cooper, Robinson, Ridley, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf available ... 

 

I'm glad you got some likes for your "argument" ... but not only did you completely disregard what I initially said (which was, in fact, grab the RB1/WR1 if available), you've completely wasted your time arguing points I didn't even make. Here's a thought: Read, re-read, ask for clarification, research, then counter with an actual argument.  Points are points, your WRs/RB stable may not be the best in the league, but having point producers like Kittle + Kelce in your lineup is never a bad thing ... ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE PRODUCING THOSE POINTS AT A POSITION WITH LIMITED QUALITY OPTIONS TO BEGIN WITH

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Il be spending my 2nd on Kittle. With no Deebo this team is going to pound the rock and hit kittle with the play action. Kittle has a chance to overtake Kelce this year. In the 3rd and 4th you can still land a solid rb 2. Wr is immeasurably deep this year. There are roughly 35 wrs I would draft without hesitation, but there are roughly 7 tight ends I would take. Teams with Kittle are going to have a major advantage at tight end and in PPR formats.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Man just got paid!
 

49ers signed TE George Kittle to a five-year, $75 million extension through 2025. 

Kittle will get an $18 million signing bonus. The extension "blows the doors off the TE market," according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Kittle has dominated when given the opportunity in San Francisco's run-first scheme, averaging 13.6 yards per reception over his first three years in the NFL. He's gone for 81 receiving yards per game since becoming the team's primary pass catcher in 2018, as he's led all tight ends and receivers in broken tackles over the past couple seasons. Kittle, 26, is positioned to be a dominant real and fantasy football force for years to come. 

Aug 13, 2020, 11:02 AM ET
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On 7/24/2020 at 6:08 PM, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


I didn’t say/mean take Ertz earlier ... it’s the simple fact that those 2 not being available - and on my team - limits not only the quantity of TE but also the quality of TE available to the rest of the league. 

They are in a tier by themselves as elite WR1s with TE eligibility.

Not only does this give me 2 elite fantasy producers in my lineup, it means the rest of the league has not only no chance at either - - but also the rest of the pool is diminished significantly in terms of difference making TEs. While most of the league has guys getting 3-5 points a week (standard), I’ve got WR1 Production in that spot and a “stud” in my flex spot too. Your actual WRs won’t be the best in the league, but it’s also a lot easier to find 1,000 yard WRs. 

I know it’s scary outside the box thinking, but it’s not that complicated. When I have both, not only do you not have 1 of the stud TEs, but the rest of the quality TEs available for the rest of the league has now been severely diminished. 
 

It effects every other team, not just the guy who was going to take Kittle after you took Kelce. A “ripple effect” if you will. 

 

Unless your league has special scoring for TEs, the statement in bold simply isn't backed up by statistical reality.

In half PPR, Kelce scored 205.8 last season, and Kittle's 16-game pace was 205.7. Neither would have even been a WR1. They would have been 15th and 16th in a combined WR/TE ranking in ppg...12th and 23rd in total points. 

In full PPR, Kelce scored 254.3, and Kittle's 16-game pace was 254.3. On a per-game basis, they would have tied for 11th among all WR/TE...total points would have ranked them 9th and 20th. 

In Standard it's even worse. 

In none of the three typical scoring systems were either Kelce or Kittle an "elite" WR1 with TE eligibility. In half PPR and standard, they weren't even in the WR1 realm...and they barely were in full PPR. 

Not commenting on the viability of the strategy...just on the statement in bold. 

Edited by Flyman75
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I am buying him this season.  Instincts are telling me huge year, #1 TE.

Just hope I don't have a late pick in a snake draft.  I'm perfectly fine using 2nd pick on him if I got a RB I love in the 1st.

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11 hours ago, JAG said:

I am buying him this season.  Instincts are telling me huge year, #1 TE.

Just hope I don't have a late pick in a snake draft.  I'm perfectly fine using 2nd pick on him if I got a RB I love in the 1st.

 

I think he's a good pick at the end of the 2nd, but I favor a top 5 WR or a top 12 RB in the beginning/mid 2nd.

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