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Tyler Lockett 2020 Outlook


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He’s the WR1 overall right now. And about to face the Jets + 3 NFC East teams the next 4 weeks.    Sell him?  

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6 hours ago, atdharris said:

 

Not someone I can bring myself to draft again next year. He started the season out on a tear, but just like last year, he really faded after the first half of the year. 

Last year he was hurt towards end of year, but there's no excuse this year. 

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2 hours ago, n1tecrawler said:

Lockett's been averaging 5/49 on 7 targets over the last seven weeks. Anyone else in the playoffs benching him? If so, for who? Not a lot of options this time of year, [...]

Only if Julio plays, for me.

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16 hours ago, n1tecrawler said:

Lockett's been averaging 5/49 on 7 targets over the last seven weeks. Anyone else in the playoffs benching him? If so, for who? Not a lot of options this time of year, [...]

Wash Def is pretty good. They seem to be able to pressure the QB and Wilson has been knocked around some lately. So I'm going with Hilton instead of Lockett

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If you made it this far into playoffs with him in your lineup, then he’s most likely your WR3 and/or you have a stacked team built around him

Might as well continue to roll with him and hope for one of his random huge games (or even a modest 12-15 point game)

Don’t forget on this same team two years ago Doug Baldwin had a very mediocre season and then exploded in the semis & finals to win a lot of his owners championships

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Washington has an elite pass defense. If you start Lockett you're praying for a TD. 6 for 60 seems like the ceiling, as they never throw deep to Lockett anymore, and the defense is just too good for one of Lockett's random double digit catch games.

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3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Washington has an elite pass defense. If you start Lockett you're praying for a TD. 6 for 60 seems like the ceiling, as they never throw deep to Lockett anymore, and the defense is just too good for one of Lockett's random double digit catch games.

Also with Haskins starting Seattle could easily get a big lead early and cease Russell's cooking early. Definitely limits both Metcalf and Lockett's upside since the likelihood of a shootout is basically non-existent. 

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52 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Also with Haskins starting Seattle could easily get a big lead early and cease Russell's cooking early. Definitely limits both Metcalf and Lockett's upside since the likelihood of a shootout is basically non-existent. 

Correct. Even if Haskins is serviceable, I don't see the Seahawks airing it out in this game. Probably a "play it safe" gamescript regardless. Metcalf can score on any play, so his ceiling remains more intact. 

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On 12/16/2020 at 7:22 AM, n1tecrawler said:

Lockett's been averaging 5/49 on 7 targets over the last seven weeks. Anyone else in the playoffs benching him? If so, for who? Not a lot of options this time of year, [...]

This feels like an AC post, but just to give an indication of where I'm pegging his value this week, I'm sitting him for Aiyuk in a flex.

So I'd say most low WR2 to high flex-ish ranked WRs should be ahead of him if they've got better consistency or a better matchup/situation.

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Last time Sea played LAR, Lockett had 5 for 66 with a long of 39, with 9 targets. Metcalf was 2 for 28 with a long of 19 with 4 targets.

Sea had Alex Collins at running back.  Think R. Wilson was sacked 6 times.

Rams must have concentrated on Metcalf last game.

How the Rams lost to the Jets is amazing. But the Rams are now battling for their playoff lives. So Rams Def should be motivated with Sea now in first place.

The game is at Sea. 

Here is what fantasy pros says:

Lockett now hasn't scored a touchdown in over a month, his last one coming on November 19th against the Cardinals. He's become more of a boom-or-bust option, but it's hard to sit him knowing he can go for 100 yards and two touchdowns at any given time with Russell Wilson throwing the football. He should be considered a low-end WR2 in Week 16 against the Rams.

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  • 2 weeks later...

If there was anything I called this year, it was that this dude would fall off a cliff in crunch time, even when he had that hot start. His lack of production killed me in the 2019 playoffs.

It's just crazy how this guy can become an absolute ghost in this offense at any time, and it's exacerbated when Russ starts to stink like he's done two Nov/Dec's in a row. You could see last year that DK was becoming the go to guy, but even he's a low end WR1 when the offense goes like this.

 

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Unanimous decision seems to be that Lockett was a massive bust, who had three massive games. But... in the other 13 games, Lockett still played at a 105 target pace. Not elite, but he's still an upside WR2/3.

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3 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

Of course guy finally goes off again week 17. Most frustrating guy to own in fantasy bar none.

He had 100 catches for 1000 yards and 10 TDs, and I can't give him away for a bag of donuts. It's amazing.

I think his big games actually hurt him. It makes his normal games look so much worse. Boo hoo, he has all these 5 for 50 floor games. 5 for 50 is a great floor for a WR3. People act like he's going 2 for 25 every other week. He's still a rock solid WR3 who has weekly WR1 on steroids upside. 

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14 hours ago, ajs723 said:

He had 100 catches for 1000 yards and 10 TDs, and I can't give him away for a bag of donuts. It's amazing.

I think his big games actually hurt him. It makes his normal games look so much worse. Boo hoo, he has all these 5 for 50 floor games. 5 for 50 is a great floor for a WR3. People act like he's going 2 for 25 every other week. He's still a rock solid WR3 who has weekly WR1 on steroids upside. 

I won't deny Lockett's upside and his potential to win you a week, but the floor is worse than that.  These are half of his games from this year, with the final three from weeks 14-16:

2/39/0, 4/44/0, 4/33/0, 4/40/0, 3/23/0, 5/52/0, 4/34/0, 3/44/0

It's hard to trust that.  

 

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56 minutes ago, ZappB said:

I won't deny Lockett's upside and his potential to win you a week, but the floor is worse than that.  These are half of his games from this year, with the final three from weeks 14-16:

2/39/0, 4/44/0, 4/33/0, 4/40/0, 3/23/0, 5/52/0, 4/34/0, 3/44/0

It's hard to trust that.  

 

The 2 for 39 and the 3 for 23 lines are hard to swallow. But even 7.5 points as a floor for a PPR WR3 is meh, but not devastating. 

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It doesn't help Lockett that it seems Wilson wants to throw to DK every pass. Rightfully so I guess, but if he spread the ball around a bit more I feel like SEA would have had more success, especially in tight games like yesterday. I'll pass on Lockett over a WR with a safer floor each week. His few big weeks weren't enough reason for me to take him. On top of other week he had great match ups and didn't get the targets to be a factor, sad. 

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This is the most negative thread ever for a guy who had 100/1000/10 season.

Everything is going to regress to the mean next year. He won't repeat those 2 insane monster games, but he probably also won't have quite as many duds.

He's still going to go for 85-90 catches and 1000 yards next year. Plus, Wilson likes him in the red zone. 

WR2 with a high ceiling. And no one is going to want to touch him. I actually think he's going to be a good value next year.

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