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D.K. Metcalf 2020 Outlook


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The best part of this for me was how Russ repeatedly went his way when the game was on the line and in critical downs.  Normally he’s got his long bomb or two a game and that’s that.  He’s the unquest

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3 minutes ago, midlip said:

Is it nitpicking that he only gets 4 catches a game? I worry if his efficiency ever dies down if he'll have a dud 

I was also wondering if this is time to sell high?

He's had a cream puff schedule and has a very difficult schedule after the week 6 bye... 4 catches per game vs terrible opponents? He's only catching 57% with the most efficient QB in the league.... Locket is 33 tgt 79%, Olsen 18 tgt 78%, Carson 16 tgt 94%, Moore 11 tgt 91%... Then you got DK with 28 tgt and 57%... The Seahawks putside of DK real in 84% of their targets and he's at 57%, but he does far more with the ball in his hands than any other... is that 25 yards per catch sustainable? 

Love the talent but we due for regression? 

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11 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

I was also wondering if this is time to sell high?

He's had a cream puff schedule and has a very difficult schedule after the week 6 bye... 4 catches per game vs terrible opponents? He's only catching 57% with the most efficient QB in the league.... Locket is 33 tgt 79%, Olsen 18 tgt 78%, Carson 16 tgt 94%, Moore 11 tgt 91%... Then you got DK with 28 tgt and 57%... The Seahawks putside of DK real in 84% of their targets and he's at 57%, but he does far more with the ball in his hands than any other... is that 25 yards per catch sustainable? 

Love the talent but we due for regression? 


classic example of why looking at stats in a bubble without context will f--- you. Do not sell this beast.

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He's still a top 10 fantasy overall this year no question, but yes, you have to expect a couple dud games because he's a deep threat with fewer targets than a short/intermediate receiver or a slot guy. His consistency for a deep threat has been amazing though, and Seattle hasn't showed any signs of slowing down their offense/passing, so...

If you're in PPR though, maybe try to flip him for a keenan allen or amari cooper. In standard or half ppr though? Hold all season.

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55 minutes ago, harck said:

He's still a top 10 fantasy overall this year no question, but yes, you have to expect a couple dud games because he's a deep threat with fewer targets than a short/intermediate receiver or a slot guy. His consistency for a deep threat has been amazing though, and Seattle hasn't showed any signs of slowing down their offense/passing, so...

If you're in PPR though, maybe try to flip him for a keenan allen or amari cooper. In standard or half ppr though? Hold all season.

 

If Tyrod takes back over you lose that Allen trade 99 / 100 times.  The 1 being DK gets hurt and Allen plays 16.

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They are throwing for more airyards to him ( I would have to look that up to verify that but I think I am right) to it only makes sense the completion % goes down the farther downfield the ball is traveling........ 

Tough schedule or not, the man is freak - who is going to cover him consistently? No one!!

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On a serious note is it a worry? No. I've stated multiple times that he is not ready yet to be a target hog and the go to guy in desperate situations that require a first down. Too many flaws still to be reliable in those situations. Look at some other freaks and when they hit 100 receptions:

Julio - Season 4

Megatron - Season 6

Dez - Never

Andre Johnson - Season 4

Mike Evans - Never

Moss - Season 5

Owens - Season 7

It takes time. Sure DK is going to have some duds like a lot of these guys did. However, his elite deep ball skills will give him a lot more 100 yard and 1 TD games than most players. It evens out in the end. Even Dez was known to dissapear for halfs and Evans has terrible games. Hell, the legendary Megatron would put up 4/40/0 games 3-4 times a year.

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27 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

If Tyrod takes back over you lose that Allen trade 99 / 100 times.  The 1 being DK gets hurt and Allen plays 16.

 

lol.  Maybe it's like 50/100 times now.  I really didn't see Herbert keeping the job, he's been very mediocre IMO and could use more grooming, but whatever.  

 

Chargers offensive skill positions are full go rest of the season.

 

It's such BS every time I discount an offense heading into a season and then a team doctor punctures the lung of the guy that throws for crap yardage whenever he plays loses his job to a guy that is a gunslinger.

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2 hours ago, StevieStats said:

I was also wondering if this is time to sell high?

He's had a cream puff schedule and has a very difficult schedule after the week 6 bye... 4 catches per game vs terrible opponents? He's only catching 57% with the most efficient QB in the league.... Locket is 33 tgt 79%, Olsen 18 tgt 78%, Carson 16 tgt 94%, Moore 11 tgt 91%... Then you got DK with 28 tgt and 57%... The Seahawks putside of DK real in 84% of their targets and he's at 57%, but he does far more with the ball in his hands than any other... is that 25 yards per catch sustainable? 

Love the talent but we due for regression? 

He torched one of the best CBs in the league. He's matchup proof. One of the few guys I've ever had where it doesn't matter who they are playing, he's in the starting lineup outside of a Philly-Detroit blizzard like game from years back..

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

On a serious note is it a worry? No. I've stated multiple times that he is not ready yet to be a target hog and the go to guy in desperate situations that require a first down. Too many flaws still to be reliable in those situations. Look at some other freaks and when they hit 100 receptions:

Julio - Season 4

Megatron - Season 6

Dez - Never

Andre Johnson - Season 4

Mike Evans - Never

Moss - Season 5

Owens - Season 7

It takes time. Sure DK is going to have some duds like a lot of these guys did. However, his elite deep ball skills will give him a lot more 100 yard and 1 TD games than most players. It evens out in the end. Even Dez was known to dissapear for halfs and Evans has terrible games. Hell, the legendary Megatron would put up 4/40/0 games 3-4 times a year.

Megatron was known to go catchless in the 1st halves of games a lot. Trust me I had him and that coward coaching staff would play with their balls tucked up in their vaginas for the 1st half and only throw when the other team had taken a 2 TD lead on them into the 4th Q.

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2 hours ago, FavreCo said:

He torched one of the best CBs in the league. He's matchup proof. One of the few guys I've ever had where it doesn't matter who they are playing, he's in the starting lineup outside of a Philly-Detroit blizzard like game from years back..

In case you didn't know, that corner is only 1 of 11 players... And 4 catches isn't exactly "torching" although he had a great fantasy game... New England gives up the 9th most points to WRs... His other opponents did far give up the 10th most (atl), 2nd most (dal), and 8th most (mia)... Pass rush and defensive scheming make a huge impact -- DK has had a cream puff easy schedule no two ways about it, impossible to call him matchup proof.

After this Minnesota (4th most to WR) he doesn't face a single top 10 matchup the test of the way... In fact after the bye the defenses vs WR rank as follows (1=give up most, 32=least): 29, 27, 11, 28, 29, 14, 13, 22, 31, 28... 

Not saying he's going to fail but the schedule gets a LOT more difficult for a guy that hasn't faced a stingy defense vs WRs.

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10 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

In case you didn't know, that corner is only 1 of 11 players... And 4 catches isn't exactly "torching" although he had a great fantasy game... New England gives up the 9th most points to WRs... His other opponents did far give up the 10th most (atl), 2nd most (dal), and 8th most (mia)... Pass rush and defensive scheming make a huge impact -- DK has had a cream puff easy schedule no two ways about it, impossible to call him matchup proof.

After this Minnesota (4th most to WR) he doesn't face a single top 10 matchup the test of the way... In fact after the bye the defenses vs WR rank as follows (1=give up most, 32=least): 29, 27, 11, 28, 29, 14, 13, 22, 31, 28... 

Not saying he's going to fail but the schedule gets a LOT more difficult for a guy that hasn't faced a stingy defense vs WRs.


those defenses stats will be takin a dip after Russ and DK blow through town.

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13 hours ago, StevieStats said:

In case you didn't know, that corner is only 1 of 11 players... And 4 catches isn't exactly "torching" although he had a great fantasy game... New England gives up the 9th most points to WRs... His other opponents did far give up the 10th most (atl), 2nd most (dal), and 8th most (mia)... Pass rush and defensive scheming make a huge impact -- DK has had a cream puff easy schedule no two ways about it, impossible to call him matchup proof.

After this Minnesota (4th most to WR) he doesn't face a single top 10 matchup the test of the way... In fact after the bye the defenses vs WR rank as follows (1=give up most, 32=least): 29, 27, 11, 28, 29, 14, 13, 22, 31, 28... 

Not saying he's going to fail but the schedule gets a LOT more difficult for a guy that hasn't faced a stingy defense vs WRs.

so only 1 team in the top 3? and that 29 and 28...will be like 15 after Russ and DK get them done with them the 1st time around........

Let's put it another way... The Cardinals x2, SF x2, Buffalo, LA x2, Philly, NYG, NYJ, Washington does not look like murderer's row of pass defenses. In fact, quite the opposite......

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