Jarvis Landry 2020 Outlook

[Boudewijn 4,619]

In 2019 Landry was WR13 in .5 PPR - yet apparently you can have him at the price of WR30 according to the current ADP. That makes very little sense to me.

This is a guy who has:

- 6 straight years of 16 games
- 6 straight years of 100+ targets
- 6 straight years of 80+ rec
- 4 out of the last 5 years of 1000+ yards and one close enough to make no difference
- increased catch rate and yd/target in his second year with 2019.

Plus, Cleveland should be a high powered offense with 2 strong RBs, and multiple receiving threats all over the field. I suppose the fear is that Stefanski was hired as OC to implement the run-first strategy that also ruined the Vikings passing game actually worked pretty well for Minnesota Offense as a whole. Thielen was still WR15 though, so it's not necessarily the end of Landry, and as Stefansky was the QB coach at the VIkings, he may be very good for Mayfield as a QB (clearly Baker has still a lot to learn).

Maybe I'm too optimistic, but if Landry stays at this ADP, I'll be all over him.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Boudewijn

[El_Chingon 1,809]

Mediocre in non PPR, but very good in .5 PPR and a stud in PPR.  Huge value in PPR because he's undervalued in general.

[colepenhagen 3,558]

find it weird that most experts have both metcalf and lockett ahead of landry in full ppr

[itslarry 108]

47 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

find it weird that most experts have both metcalf and lockett ahead of landry in full ppr

A lot of experts aren't experts.

Can RW support 2 top 15 recievers?

 

[colepenhagen 3,558]

14 minutes ago, itslarry said:

A lot of experts aren't experts.

Can RW support 2 top 15 recievers?

 

seems unlikely

2019- dk +lockett - 1957 yds, 140 rec, 15 tds (dk and locketts last 8 games extrapolated for full season Dk-70/1000/6 Lockett- 72/884/8)

2018-bladwin + lockett - 1583 yds 143 rec 15 tds

2017- bladwin+ richardson- 1694 yds 119 rec 14rds

2015 spread out to 4 guys  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2015.htm

Edited May 26, 2020 by colepenhagen

[Rush2112 4,315]

Best slot WR in the game for a long time, Landry will be feasting again in 2020. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Rush2112

[BMcP 8,579]

5 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

find it weird that most experts have both metcalf and lockett ahead of landry in full ppr

Must be an upside play.  He’s going obviously solid as can be in full PPR.

[1972Miamidolphins 1,385]

He did have major surgery done this offseason

[Boudewijn 4,619]

6 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

He did have major surgery done this offseason

That's a great point and I missed that, thanks.

Landry is optimistic (like every player ever) but more reasonable reports project him to be back in August, which is a concern, and Dr Chao is even more careful:

 

 

 

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

The Austin Hooper / Njoku / Hunt reception squeeze could be real and this could be that year the volume doesn't sustain.

He had a career high 14.1 YPR, which is roughly 15-25% higher than his career average. He averaged 6-8 targets a game last quarter of last season.

I don't know- he is meh, hence his price tag. He may beat it slightly, but it's a crowded WR depth chart this year in fantasy. 

[1972Miamidolphins 1,385]

Landry is my guy and i take him every season(wait until 4/5 round ppr since on the browns), but as a fin, id take him all day in the 2nd round, again, ppr

 

this surgery though, i will be following the timeline closely, Landry may be more of the icing on the cake for me this season vs a critical centerpiece.  
 

Kupp is my new reach in every draft nowadays

[Gohawks 10,155]

On 5/26/2020 at 6:40 PM, Rush2112 said:

Best slot WR in the game for a long time,

Yeah no not even close. In fact, he's never been the best slot WR in the league.

Antonio Brown was the best slot WR in the NFL for years (even though he did plenty damage outside the slot). Tyreke Hill is also WAY better in the slot. Thielen as well. There's a very compelling case for Kupp and Edelman had some seasons that were better than him. JuJu dominated in the slot 2 years ago as well.

Landry is a very good slot WR but "Best slot WR in the game for a long time?" Yeah, no. He never had a single season as the best slot WR and hasn't been in the top 3 most seasons let alone best in the game. 

[Gohawks 10,155]

On 5/26/2020 at 3:12 PM, itslarry said:

A lot of experts aren't experts.

Can RW support 2 top 15 recievers?

 

Eh, maybe and maybe not. Wilson never had two very good WRs. When Baldwin was the #1 Lockett was more of a specialist. I also don't think Baldwin or Lockett are very good #1s but rather benefits of being the #1 to Wilson. They're more like WR2 talents. I think DK is a legit #1 WR so this is the first time Wilson actually has very good WRs.

However, if Wilson can't support two top 15 WRs Mayfield damn sure can't. 

[hoppychokes 865]

1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Eh, maybe and maybe not. Wilson never had two very good WRs. When Baldwin was the #1 Lockett was more of a specialist. I also don't think Baldwin or Lockett are very good #1s but rather benefits of being the #1 to Wilson. They're more like WR2 talents. I think DK is a legit #1 WR so this is the first time Wilson actually has very good WRs.

However, if Wilson can't support two top 15 WRs Mayfield damn sure can't. 

Lockett has definitely benefited from RWs amazing ball placement on deep passes.

 

I also think RWs ability difference over Mayfield is the leading reason he can’t support 2 WRs, he is too good at elevating every pass catcher on the field and spreading the ball.

[Gohawks 10,155]

46 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

Lockett has definitely benefited from RWs amazing ball placement on deep passes.

 

I also think RWs ability difference over Mayfield is the leading reason he can’t support 2 WRs, he is too good at elevating every pass catcher on the field and spreading the ball.

I don't agree with this either. I'm not saying it's not true there's just no evidence that it is true and I would treat it as such. 

His first year his #1 WR was Sidney Rice and Tate was his #1

in 2013 it was Tate and Baldwin

2014 and 2015 it was Baldwin and Kearse

2016 it was Baldwin and Graham

2017 it was Baldwin and Richardson

2018 it was Lockett and Baldwin

2019 it was Lockett and DK

So basically in 2013 he had two guys that are really both WR2s (and Baldwin was in his second year), 2014-15 a WR2 as his WR1 and a WR4 as his WR2 (Kearse was honestly REALLY bad), in 2016 a WR2 as his 1 and a washed up TE as his 2, in 2017 a WR2 as his 1 and a WR3-4 as his 2, it 2018 a WR2 as his 1 and a washed up WR2 as his 2, and in 2019 a WR2 as his 1 and a raw rookie as his 2.

My point is, out of any elite QB Wilson has had BY FAR the worst weapons in the league. It's honestly criminal. He hasn't had one elite WR and the second guy probably wouldn't even see the field on most teams. Tate and Baldwin are the only duo that I would consider even close to "alright" and they were only there for a year when Wilson wasn't nearly as good as a passer and as I mentioned Baldwin was only in his second year.

My point is, when you have no one good to throw to you're likely to get the ball spread around more.

 

[colepenhagen 3,558]

2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I don't agree with this either. I'm not saying it's not true there's just no evidence that it is true and I would treat it as such. 

His first year his #1 WR was Sidney Rice and Tate was his #1

in 2013 it was Tate and Baldwin

2014 and 2015 it was Baldwin and Kearse

2016 it was Baldwin and Graham

2017 it was Baldwin and Richardson

2018 it was Lockett and Baldwin

2019 it was Lockett and DK

So basically in 2013 he had two guys that are really both WR2s (and Baldwin was in his second year), 2014-15 a WR2 as his WR1 and a WR4 as his WR2 (Kearse was honestly REALLY bad), in 2016 a WR2 as his 1 and a washed up TE as his 2, in 2017 a WR2 as his 1 and a WR3-4 as his 2, it 2018 a WR2 as his 1 and a washed up WR2 as his 2, and in 2019 a WR2 as his 1 and a raw rookie as his 2.

My point is, out of any elite QB Wilson has had BY FAR the worst weapons in the league. It's honestly criminal. He hasn't had one elite WR and the second guy probably wouldn't even see the field on most teams. Tate and Baldwin are the only duo that I would consider even close to "alright" and they were only there for a year when Wilson wasn't nearly as good as a passer and as I mentioned Baldwin was only in his second year.

My point is, when you have no one good to throw to you're likely to get the ball spread around more.

 

wilson would have to flirt with 5000 yds to support two top 15 full ppr wr. (now thats not saying he cant support 2 fantasy relevant wr)

see winston and evans/godwin. winston needed 5100 yds 33 tds 380 comp for evans wr12 and godwin wr2

goff 4600 yds 22 tds 394 comp  woods/kupp finished wr 19 and wr 6

goff  cooks wr16 and woods wr9 two years ago took goff just a hair under 4700 yds, 32 tds, 364 comp

 

take wilson career highs and he is 4200 yds 35 tds 350 comp

while ill agree he hasnt had true elite weapons he still would have to really air it out to a new level to support both lockett and dk as top 15 ppr wr. (even though dk and lockett are reasonably priced at ppr wr27 and wr22)

 

 

[Boudewijn 4,619]

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/08/jarvis-landy-placed-on-activepup-with-hip-to-start-browns-training-camp-but-hes-still-on-schedule-and-eyeing-the-opener.html

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Browns receiver Jarvis Landry has been placed on the active/physically unable to perform list with his hip injury, but he remains on schedule in his bid to play in the opener Sept. 13 in Baltimore.

 

[Dreams And Dwightmares 3,229]

Sidney rice balled out of control before coming to RW. He was no slouch. Very unfair to label him as such. 

 

Golden Tate blew up year he left for Matt Stafford. 

 

RW spreads ball a lot and scrambles a lot. Different QBs could've made 2 WRs top 15 WRs one of these last 8 years. 

 

Bottom line though the Hawks and Carroll don't play fantasy football, they try to play winning football and sometimes that means throwing less than 30x a game and in that case the WRs likely gonna struggle for points unless someone like lockett had one of those 1 catch 68 yard and TD games. 

[Tenner 1,052]

So, last years high end WR2 (WR14) is being drafted at WR36 this year. Ok

[Members_Only_76 7,283]

Good value, especially full PPR. Baltimore will shut down OBJ for the most part and Landry will benefit. Rinse and repeat.

[NBatum88 2,187]

Are we expecting him to play? I'm thin at WR and would be in pretty bad shape if he didn't play

[PisEdiRin 486]

Anybody who has OBJ needs to immediately find the Landry owner and offer a trade of OBJ for Landry+X.

It's literally a Win-Win. Landry will outscore OBJ, plus u get something extra.

Landry > OBJ in 2020

 

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by PisEdiRin

[johnnyboy8102 246]

Is he going to be limited today? Has practiced in full and is not on the injury report. 

[FlashGordon401 2,465]

15 minutes ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Is he going to be limited today? Has practiced in full and is not on the injury report. 

He's probably a risky play today given his comments on Thursday.

Given that the Browns are 7.5 point underdogs today, their best shot at winning is likely pounding the rock with Chubb/Hunt and eating time to keep the ball out of LJ's hands. Have Landry in one league and likely fading for another option.

[johnnyboy8102 246]

4 minutes ago, FlashGordon401 said:

He's probably a risky play today given his comments on Thursday.

Given that the Browns are 7.5 point underdogs today, their best shot at winning is likely pounding the rock with Chubb/Hunt and eating time to keep the ball out of LJ's hands. Have Landry in one league and likely fading for another option.

If Evans iffy I am pretty much forced to start Landry. Just hoping for the best. 
 

Didn’t think we would have so many issues (Sanders-Evans-Sutton, etc) Week 1.