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Sophomore WR 2020 Outlook


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8 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

3. Terry McLaurin—80 Rec, 1200 yards, 5 TD (WR 15-19)—admittedly as an older rookie last season he is closer to his apex production age than the other two, but at the same time he is more likely to be forced the ball—perhaps not with the most high quality targets—but still; overall the biggest limitation on his production will be RZ opportunities in a run leaning offense and without ideal size

 

He's 6'0 210. Whats not ideal about his size? Not much different than AJ Brown.

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These are the top 20 rookies of 2019: I grouped them by the total yards in 2019, which is a fair indication of their chances in 2020; generally a receiver who has more than 500 yds, stands a

My take (projections in half PPR) in tiers for long term expectations Future WR1 1. AJB—74 Rec, 1100 yards, 8 TD, 5 Rushing Attempts, 30 Yards, 1 TD (Around WR 13-15)—I don’t expect the effi

I like how people that argue against DK conveniently ignore that Calvin Johnson ran the position by pretty much only running 4 routes: Slant, Go, Post, and Curl.

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8 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Solid post all around.

I bolded the part that I think is interesting. I found that Deebo has a really high catch rate (70%) paired with a very good yd/catch, which is unusual (generally the deeper your play, the lower the catch rate). This is mainly due to his high yac (rated #5 on player profiler), and I think he should be a great asset for the 49ers, and as such get quite a lot more traffic. He's sort of the perfect counterpart to Kittle, in my mind.

Immediately after the season ended I told myself "Don't draft Deebo next year, he's going to be crazy overvalued" because of how strong he finished the season, but questioning that thought.  I absolutely love his YAC and big play ability, and the fact Shanny gives him a couple carries.  Last 5 games of the season he had at least 1 carry in all 5.  He's the undoubted #1 WR on the team and #2 target behind Kittle, and just about nothing behind them.  The dude's player comp is Chris Godwin.  His efficiency was Top 20 in a bunch of categories.  

The only concern I have for Deebo is volume.  The 49ers offense is elite, but extremely run   #29 in pass plays last year.  Now Deebo only got a 72% snap share, so I absolutely see him being on the field a lot more and his target share being higher.  But does more volume lead to lower efficiency?  For example, his catch rate was 4th in the NFL.  

He's one for me, where I'll have to see where ADP is on draft day.  Right now on FantasyPros Tyler Boyd, Michael Gallup, Marvin Jones, Will Fuller, Julian Edelman and Marquise Brown are all right behind him.  To me, that's a really tough group to rank.  And if you include the WRs right ahead of him, McLaurin, Diggs, Green, Landry, makes that whole group even harder.  

 

 

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Niners fan here. It seems many don’t know the inside rumblings on the team include lowering Kittle’s workload and blocking volume by finding a part-time replacement, and there are short and long term worries about Deebo’s health, because of his past injury history and his extremely aggressive and physical play style with the ball in his hands. He always looks for contact and tries to gain extra yards like an RB.

 

Anyways, I just don’t expect the volume for either to be elite for those reasons and because these are guys returning or entering into this of new this year, and Shanahan LOVES to get tricky and weird and mix up who’s getting what on which day etc:

Trent Taylor

Jalen Hurd

Brandon Aiyuk

Jauan Jennings

Travis Benjamin

Jerick McKinnon

Charlie Woerner(blocking TE)

 

So I personally fade all the guys from my favorite team. Sucks but it’s the wise thing to do. 
 

/Sorry this is a bit of a tangent, it is in response to the Deebo talk

 

 

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3 hours ago, LostAtSea said:

Niners fan here. It seems many don’t know the inside rumblings on the team include lowering Kittle’s workload and blocking volume by finding a part-time replacement, and there are short and long term worries about Deebo’s health, because of his past injury history and his extremely aggressive and physical play style with the ball in his hands. He always looks for contact and tries to gain extra yards like an RB.

 

Anyways, I just don’t expect the volume for either to be elite for those reasons and because these are guys returning or entering into this of new this year, and Shanahan LOVES to get tricky and weird and mix up who’s getting what on which day etc:

Trent Taylor

Jalen Hurd

Brandon Aiyuk

Jauan Jennings

Travis Benjamin

Jerick McKinnon

Charlie Woerner(blocking TE)

 

So I personally fade all the guys from my favorite team. Sucks but it’s the wise thing to do. 
 

/Sorry this is a bit of a tangent, it is in response to the Deebo talk

 

 

Good info thanks for posting, the Kittle info especially 

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8 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm not sure older rookies are "more polished". I am however quite sure (because I put some time into this) that 24yo rookies have a lower "expected value"; this could be for instance because if players break out earlier, maybe that's because they're just better. The difference between 21yos and 24yos can be 50% or more, depending on position (for QBs it's most noticeable).

Regarding the breakout leap: yeah, that's a good shout. I just did a quick check and I come to 20-30% leaps for 21/22 year olds, and 0-10% for 23/24yos. The most interesting group (breakout wise) are 21yos with at least 500 yards in the rookie season (40-50% jump in that group): currently, that's only Mecole Hardman. This confirms your examples; JuJu was 20 and Chris Godwin was 21 as a rookie. Here's a list of such rookies the past 10 years:

image.png.7be690a5d3095f7ee376147d65701eed.png

So it's not a 100% hit rate, but that's a pretty good target to go after, it seems.

21 as of when? DK was 21 last season and turned 22 in December. Are you using the end of the season for the age bracket? Just trying to get some clarity...

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5 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

Gonna try and nab Preston Williams in both leagues he was awesome before the season ending injury. Have a feeling once he returns PW will break out even more in 2020. 

Interesting you’re so high on him given that you tend to hate almost every player coming off an ACL.  I mean, I’m high on him. Just surprised that you are. 

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5 hours ago, LostAtSea said:

Niners fan here. It seems many don’t know the inside rumblings on the team include lowering Kittle’s workload and blocking volume by finding a part-time replacement, and there are short and long term worries about Deebo’s health, because of his past injury history and his extremely aggressive and physical play style with the ball in his hands. He always looks for contact and tries to gain extra yards like an RB.

 

Anyways, I just don’t expect the volume for either to be elite for those reasons and because these are guys returning or entering into this of new this year, and Shanahan LOVES to get tricky and weird and mix up who’s getting what on which day etc:

Trent Taylor

Jalen Hurd

Brandon Aiyuk

Jauan Jennings

Travis Benjamin

Jerick McKinnon

Charlie Woerner(blocking TE)

 

So I personally fade all the guys from my favorite team. Sucks but it’s the wise thing to do. 
 

/Sorry this is a bit of a tangent, it is in response to the Deebo talk

 

 

 

This is interesting info, can you provide any sources? I agree that Kittle's volume will reduce organically because of the presence of Deebo and Aiyuk but I also think the Niners D is going to regress and their passing volume will increase this season (obviously they will still be a run first team). Kittle is always going to be a 100 target floor guy when healthy. I don't put too much stock into the "internal fears about Deebo's health" take. The Niners were very aware of Deebo's injury history and playing style when they selected him with one of the first picks in the 2nd round over guys like AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Parris Campbell, Diontae Johnson, Hardman etc. You don't spend that kind of draft capital on a guy, who then goes on to blow expectations out of the water in his first season, to not continue to get him more involved in the offense. In listing the players that will be involved in the offense, you failed to mention the loss of Emmanuel Sanders and Matt Breida. Most teams roster 6 receivers and none of the guys mentioned (outside of Aiyuk) pose any more threat than being rotational receivers (Taylor = slot, Hurd = possession/red zone and Benjamin is a one trick pony deep threat). I don't expect Aiyuk in his rookie season to be as productive as Sanders was last year so I think there is plenty of opportunity for growth for Deebo. He only has a 72% snap share last year and it is a lock for that to increase this season, perhaps significantly. His ADP of WR31 is more than fair right now and I don't anticipate it moving significantly higher. 

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7 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

He's 6'0 210. Whats not ideal about his size? Not much different than AJ Brown.

You are actually right on that--especially with the NFL's trend towards skilled route running sub 6'3'' WRs. Maybe I was just looking at the eye test and how much bigger/bulkier AJB looks on tape.

Either way more than size I am of the belief that the Titans see AJB as their future #1 WR. With Davis's contract expiring next offseason they are likely to take a WR day 2 next year but AJB is the clear alpha IMO.

For McLaurin I am less sure the Redskins see him that way. I certainly hope they do and think he is capable, but they reportedly made a huge push for Amari Cooper this offseason and were interested in Diggs as well. For the record, I am not sure that in one year's time we will consider those guys significantly above Terry (though I am admittedly not the biggest fan of either of those guys), but it is still a bit concerning. It's certainly nice that they didn't take a WR until round 4 in the draft, but there is still the threat of Jamarr Chase next year if the Redskins pick high or another disgruntled established star becoming available.

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5 hours ago, Gohawks said:

21 as of when? DK was 21 last season and turned 22 in December. Are you using the end of the season for the age bracket? Just trying to get some clarity...

"Age on December 31" says Pro Football Reference (where I got the data).

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9 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

You are actually right on that--especially with the NFL's trend towards skilled route running sub 6'3'' WRs. Maybe I was just looking at the eye test and how much bigger/bulkier AJB looks on tape.

Either way more than size I am of the belief that the Titans see AJB as their future #1 WR. With Davis's contract expiring next offseason they are likely to take a WR day 2 next year but AJB is the clear alpha IMO.

For McLaurin I am less sure the Redskins see him that way. I certainly hope they do and think he is capable, but they reportedly made a huge push for Amari Cooper this offseason and were interested in Diggs as well. For the record, I am not sure that in one year's time we will consider those guys significantly above Terry (though I am admittedly not the biggest fan of either of those guys), but it is still a bit concerning. It's certainly nice that they didn't take a WR until round 4 in the draft, but there is still the threat of Jamarr Chase next year if the Redskins pick high or another disgruntled established star becoming available.


Dallas had Amari and Gallop and still took Lamb in round 1.  That is always a threat. Washington needs weapons badly.  They have an aging RB to go with a brittle one. Possibly the worst starting TE in the league, and not much besides Terry on the outside and he still had a great first year. I would expect 1000 yards, 6 TDS and 65 catches as his floor next season.

 

Deebo is another situation entirely.  He is in a significantly better offense, though completely run first.  The 49ers have one of the top TE in the league they rely on heavily, and They have a considerably better defense at worst keeping the running game involved for 4 qtrs. 

 

Garbage yards And scores for Terry will be the difference maker between these two next season with Washington lucky to win 4 games and blown out in 10.

 

Terry is my top option of this group next season. Though I have enjoyed the info by several. 

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Tried to tell you about Deebo. He’s not fragile, but everything he does, even videos of training and practice, he’s a bulldog. The kind of guy you expect to miss 3-4 games per year randomly with injuries like separated shoulder or hip pointer or broken foot.

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On 6/15/2020 at 8:36 AM, Boudewijn said:

What flashes? In 7 games he had 12 rec (50% catch rate) for 100 yds rec and 50 more rushing. In the playoffs he got 7 targets and caught 2. His longest play was 18 yd.

I'm somewhat underwhelmed. But on the other hand I know that you have seen more of him, so tell me what you liked?


His TD vs. Byron Jones for one: 1:07 in the link
This obvious TD non call vs. the Chiefs: 1:36
His plays vs. Cincy (jet sweeps, diving catch negated by penalty, TD catch): 2:00
Made some nice plays vs. Buffalo

Just watch the video. Now imagine if he didn't miss half the season.
 

 

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36 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:


His TD vs. Byron Jones for one: 1:07 in the link
This obvious TD non call vs. the Chiefs: 1:36
His plays vs. Cincy (jet sweeps, diving catch negated by penalty, TD catch): 2:00
Made some nice plays vs. Buffalo

Just watch the video. Now imagine if he didn't miss half the season.
 

 

I watched the video.  And I think he's a good WR.  But that video made me appreciate Brady more than Harry.  I'm not going to count on Cam or Stidham to be able to hit those back shoulder throws or lay perfect swing passes in to him.  

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On 6/15/2020 at 4:13 AM, Gohawks said:

A didn’t think a graph fetish existed until now...

Anyways, DK is my completely not bias opinion. The crazy thing is out of everyone on that list he very well may have been the most raw WR. He’s just such a freak that it didn’t matter. His athleticism and size combo just gives him a higher ceiling than anyone else.

I like Brown as well but I think his ceiling is capped a bit more. Seattle likes to run but the Titans like to run even more and of course there’s the QB difference. McLaurin is a great talent but if that offense is a total mess which it may be it’s tough. Samuel is in a similar case to Brown.

So yeah, I genuinely think DK does the best. Although I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if any of those 4 finish top 15. After those 4 it gets really dicey for me. I do like the potential of Johnson though with Big Ben back. 

 

I'm happy that the Seahawks have been able to make great progress with DK. At Ole Miss, he was very much "look like Tarzan, play like Jane", and it was a shame to see the raw talent go to waste. I honestly didn't believe in him last year, but seeing him emerge in Seattle was fun to watch. I'm anything but an Ole Miss or Seattle fan, lol, but I do like DK for some reason. I hope to see his career trajectory point upward. 

 

On 6/15/2020 at 12:01 PM, aMediumPace said:

Sure, Jameis can put up good totals with volume, but if my HOF superstar QB goes down, the team is already going to be at a disadvantage. Bringing in a guy who slings it around and throws 4 INT in a game isn't going to help your team stay above water. Id rather have a more boring, stable option. More of a game manager type. Not that there are many great options available of that type either. To each his own, but if Brees gets injured, the Saints are in big trouble. 

 

So you think Sean Payton and Drew Brees are going to allow Mr. Crab Legs be a gunslinger in NOLA if anything happens to Brees? Gotta say, you'll be very wrong. Payton won't put up with school yard football, and I have to believe that one of the reasons why Winston signed with NOLA was allow two of the best to coach and mentor him. We'll see if it works. 

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8 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:


His TD vs. Byron Jones for one: 1:07 in the link
This obvious TD non call vs. the Chiefs: 1:36
His plays vs. Cincy (jet sweeps, diving catch negated by penalty, TD catch): 2:00
Made some nice plays vs. Buffalo

Just watch the video. Now imagine if he didn't miss half the season.
 

 

He's a guy who couldn't separate from PAC 12 defenders, then he couldn't separate from linebackers or be a reliable option on a Patriots depth chart that absolutely needed one.

I will dispute the Benjamin comp because Harry's analytic profile is absolutely sterling with regard to breakout age, dominator, YPR and target share (as opposed to an unathletic 21 year old breakout) but he never passed the tape test for me. And at this point I don't see the Patriots as ever having been a WR friendly system for non slot guys (obviously they have had their exceptions--but speaking compared to the rest of the league). Now they get a worse QB in that system

I will say Cam is better for him than Stidham because he is willing to throw into tight windows, but his accuracy is still his biggest issue and something that he needs to pair up efficiently with Harry considering how tight the windows will be

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Not totally sure Cam “wanted” to throw into tight windows - more like he had to.  And very unsure BB will want him attempting that regularly - doesn’t mesh with their concepts.

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9 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

He's a guy who couldn't separate from PAC 12 defenders, then he couldn't separate from linebackers or be a reliable option on a Patriots depth chart that absolutely needed one.

I will dispute the Benjamin comp because Harry's analytic profile is absolutely sterling with regard to breakout age, dominator, YPR and target share (as opposed to an unathletic 21 year old breakout) but he never passed the tape test for me. And at this point I don't see the Patriots as ever having been a WR friendly system for non slot guys (obviously they have had their exceptions--but speaking compared to the rest of the league). Now they get a worse QB in that system

I will say Cam is better for him than Stidham because he is willing to throw into tight windows, but his accuracy is still his biggest issue and something that he needs to pair up efficiently with Harry considering how tight the windows will be

 

Looks fine to me. Receivers don't have to look the same. Some use their speed and quickness. others use their size, and Harry is in that 2nd category. He tracks the ball well and wins it high, where most corners don't have a chance. Tee higgins, in this year's draft class, is very similar (and probably better).

I don't know what their offense will look like, but Harry is an easy target for any QB in the red zone. He could score 8+ TDs if he's featured in the passing game.

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On 6/15/2020 at 11:22 PM, Boudewijn said:

Solid post all around.

I bolded the part that I think is interesting. I found that Deebo has a really high catch rate (70%) paired with a very good yd/catch, which is unusual (generally the deeper your play, the lower the catch rate). This is mainly due to his high yac (rated #5 on player profiler), and I think he should be a great asset for the 49ers, and as such get quite a lot more traffic. He's sort of the perfect counterpart to Kittle, in my mind.

Nvm

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On 6/17/2020 at 5:10 AM, urban2014 said:

What about Sims? He did great down the stretch 

Yea I don’t get why he’s been ignored. Game speed belies 40 time. Haskins likes him. 
 

All in.

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16 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

So you think Sean Payton and Drew Brees are going to allow Mr. Crab Legs be a gunslinger in NOLA if anything happens to Brees? Gotta say, you'll be very wrong. Payton won't put up with school yard football, and I have to believe that one of the reasons why Winston signed with NOLA was allow two of the best to coach and mentor him. We'll see if it works. 

No I don't think they will. Which is partly my point. Jameis isn't going to put up numbers in such a controlled environment because the volume isn't going to be there. 

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On 6/15/2020 at 11:41 PM, mocha4313 said:

Maybe not closer to their ceiling, but I do think an older rookie should have the expectation of being more polished coming in no? That's not to say what they did wasn't as impressive; but sample size wise, I am having trouble thinking of older rookies who took the huge year 2/year 3 leaps like Juju 2018 or Chris Godwin 2019. Maybe it's just on me and you can identify some examples. Or maybe Calvin Ridley does it this year or even one of McLaurin or Deebo does it

 

Golladay? I think he was 24 coming into the league.

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1 hour ago, aMediumPace said:

No I don't think they will. Which is partly my point. Jameis isn't going to put up numbers in such a controlled environment because the volume isn't going to be there. 

Off topic but you have the best name of any poster. Brings back memories 

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