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Nate Pearson 2020 Outlook


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Every young pitcher has nights like this.  He has elite talent and I find that nights like these are usually good for pitchers in the long run.  Elite young pitchers think they can do no wrong and this re-focuses them to pitch vs throw.  I would bet his next start is a good one.

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Passed his debut with flying colors. Got stronger as the game went on and finished that last inning with a flurry. First time through the order he was throwing nothing but FB/Slider, and was sitting 9

I'm having Kluber flashbacks.

All my other pitchers have been getting murdered, so I’m assuming that the same thing will happen to Nate.  I know that’s not very scientific.  I’ll go 2 2/3 IP with 6 earned runs allowed and 3 Ks.

6 minutes ago, RBI Sports said:

It will be at Baltimore. Another decent chance for him to dominate.

 

 

Baltimore has the #2 offense in baseball right now. Small sample size, but they're raking. 

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54 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Baltimore has the #2 offense in baseball right now. Small sample size, but they're raking. 

 

They're 12th in runs scored, but agreed, they've been better than anyone likely assumes.

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I'm personally holding him (in a 10 team league). But I would completely understand dropping him given the small margin for error in such a short season. In general, I think most owners have been a bit too reactionary to one bad start and/or a small slump. There are wayyyyyyy too many good players (especially pitchers) available in my competitive league. Much more so than in prior seasons. 

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2 hours ago, azeri98 said:

His control is terrible. It has been in every game except the first one against the Nats. I'm dumping him. He will get killed in Baltimore.

 

I don't know man. He only gave up two hits in each of his first two start and in the second one he just made one mistake (to Freeman). I think the swing and miss potential and upside he showed in his first start justifies holding him for at least a few more starts. 

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3 hours ago, azeri98 said:

His control is terrible. It has been in every game except the first one against the Nats. I'm dumping him. He will get killed in Baltimore.

I didn't really notice this until I read your post, but yes- he does seem to walk a lot of guys. That would be fine, except that his weapon (fastball) the guys can just tee off on when they know its coming (hitters' counts, etc.) as a result.

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19 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

I don't know man. He only gave up two hits in each of his first two start and in the second one he just made one mistake (to Freeman). I think the swing and miss potential and upside he showed in his first start justifies holding him for at least a few more starts. 

He walks too many guys and the Jays have trouble scoring. Either way if your in a wins league or QS league you won't get either

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28 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

He walks too many guys and the Jays have trouble scoring. Either way if your in a wins league or QS league you won't get either


the walk rate is at 6.57/9. He was 3 or lower in the minors. It’s going to settle down to some degree and that will help him get some 6 inning outings. 

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50 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:


the walk rate is at 6.57/9. He was 3 or lower in the minors. It’s going to settle down to some degree and that will help him get some 6 inning outings. 

 

I agree. And I don't get the logic in writing off such a top prospect after three starts. Especially when one of them was a great one. Also, let's be honest. How many SPs outside of the maybe 10-15 or so have been consistently pitching 6 innings anyway? Especially this season. I'd much rather gamble on Pearson's upside as my 5th starter than some of these other scrubs like Boyd or Heaney. 

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Rookie pitcher with upside yeah.  But too many factors working against him.. his opposition is NY Bos TB and Baltimore and now even Baltimore is a good offensive team. He’s going to be on a pitch count all year and the Jays aren’t the best team to help with wins.

jays also have a pretty lousy track record developing their young pitchers for many years now.

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11 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Rookie pitcher with upside yeah.

 

Well the ones who have no upside aren't worth starting or owning, so that part was implied. I like Pearson, I think he'll have some good starts as soon as this year, but there's always a chance it could take a year or years for him to put it together. He's going to make for a good dynasty buy low soon enough. 

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2 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Someone in a dynasty isn’t going to dump him so fast.. redraft is a different story.

 

I did say soon enough, assuming he struggles this year. There are lots of terrible dynasty league players, many of whom are on this board let alone the ones who aren't. Not saying every Pearson sells him off if he has a bad rookie year, but many will. 

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3 hours ago, azeri98 said:

I was talking about redraft not dynasty. In a short year like this you can't keep throwing a guy out there who kills you

He’s had one bad start though. That’s not a trend yet. Smart move is to see how he bounces back. 

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22 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I did say soon enough, assuming he struggles this year. There are lots of terrible dynasty league players, many of whom are on this board let alone the ones who aren't. Not saying every Pearson sells him off if he has a bad rookie year, but many will. 

He shouldn’t be dropped in any dynasty league period unless he completely busts out by the end of 2021 and still most should hold. This is the year of the knee jerk. It’s a small sample size for all these players just like it’s a small sample size for Baltimore, Miami and Colorado. Regression is coming so don’t sit guys against Baltimore just because they’re hot right now. These teams legitimately suck and are getting by on smoke and mirrors. 

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2 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

He shouldn’t be dropped in any dynasty league period unless he completely busts out by the end of 2021 and still most should hold. This is the year of the knee jerk. It’s a small sample size for all these players just like it’s a small sample size for Baltimore, Miami and Colorado. Regression is coming so don’t sit guys against Baltimore just because they’re hot right now. These teams legitimately suck and are getting by on smoke and mirrors. 

Exactly. Some teams may get off to a great start in Mar/Apr ('19 Mariners, '18 Mets for instance) only to collapse down the line. And then there are those teams that perform at or below .500 and then go on a tear in Jul/Aug/Sep. 

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Ok, I'm watching Pearson pitch against the Orioles tonight. He clearly still has control issues and seems VERY easily flustered. In fact, he reminds me a lot of a young Kevin Gausman, and that's not a compliment. I'd say hes droppable in shallow redraft mixed leagues. 

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