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Tyler Higbee 2020 Outlook


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Surprised not to find a Higbee thread yet. After deep diving a player I wasn't that interested in but was still available in a NFFC 4 hour draft at pick 100 I came away interested.

Higbee had a 4 game streak of 100 yard games and a hell of a 5 game run to finish the season when the Rams moved to 12 personnel. Arizona was the opponent twice in this span and they couldn't stop the TE, they were last against the TE by a fair margin, Dallas was also in this stretch and they were 5th worse, Seattle was also in the stretch and they finished 8th worse but San Fransisco was also in this stretch and they finished 2nd best against the TE. Sorting by fantasy pts giving up isn't perfect as some teams face much tougher TE's through the year and in such a small sample size 1 broken play that leads to a TD can change the results a fair bit. It is safe to say though that Arizona was really bad, a handful of teams were really good including San Fransisco and the rest were close. Enough about his opponents.

 

Now I bring up Jordan Reed and his ppr/pts per game in 2014-16 they were 18th, 1st and 1st. Why do I cherry pick these seasons and not include the 1 before and 2 after??? Sean Mcvay was his coordinator for those 3 years that is why. I'm now buying Higbee this year more so thanks to Mcvay.

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Surprised not to find a Higbee thread yet. After deep diving a player I wasn't that interested in but was still available in a NFFC 4 hour draft at pick 100 I came away interested. Higbee had a 4

But it would be equally stupid to forget how awesome he was once given the opportunity.  Everett is a fine player, but never came remotely close to that sort of production.  And it’s not as if McVay f

He did look good reminds me of lighter Kelce

I'm also high on Higbee this year if the season is played.  As you mentioned, he had a nice string of games to end last year and he should be the 3rd option in the passing game for the Rams this season.  He will likely have more George Kittle-like big games but it remains to be seen if he can do it consistently.

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I'm not that keen on him. In a deep league I owned Everett last year and he was pretty pretty good until he got hurt. That was disappointing more so because in this stretch (where Higbee was the only TE) they played bad defenses against TE. Arizona Seattle and 49ers. So Everett will be back and imo stealing a good chunk of his workload.

Edited by dorwell
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3 hours ago, dorwell said:

I'm not that keen on him. In a deep league I owned Everett last year and he was pretty pretty good until he got hurt. That was disappointing more so because in this stretch (where Higbee was the only TE) they played bad defenses against TE. Arizona Seattle and 49ers. So Everett will be back and imo stealing a good chunk of his workload.

This. When they were both healthy and playing, Everett was the player to own. I'm not saying that Higbee didn't have a breakout and show chemistry with Goff, but it would be stupid to ignore what the first 2/3 of the season looked like. 

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But it would be equally stupid to forget how awesome he was once given the opportunity.  Everett is a fine player, but never came remotely close to that sort of production.  And it’s not as if McVay forgot about that.

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3 hours ago, BMcP said:

But it would be equally stupid to forget how awesome he was once given the opportunity.  Everett is a fine player, but never came remotely close to that sort of production.  And it’s not as if McVay forgot about that.

 

Not only did Mcvay not forget about it, he embraced it by giving Cooks away which possibly turned into a great deal (remains to be seen) thanks to Bill O'Brien.

On a side note, for 2.5 years Cooper Kupp feasted on linebackers, safeties, zone coverage etc... as Watkins and Woods then Cooks and Woods drew the top coverage, when they switched to 12 personnel outside of the TD's Kupp disappeared. IMO if they don't resign Kupp before the season stay away, stay far away from Kupp as Higbee now gets all these safe throws vs soft coverage. In Matt Harmon's reception perception Kupp was one of if not the worst vs man coverage so this is a big loss for him but a big gain for Higbee.

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3 hours ago, BMcP said:

But it would be equally stupid to forget how awesome he was once given the opportunity.  Everett is a fine player, but never came remotely close to that sort of production.  And it’s not as if McVay forgot about that.

 

Don't be so sure.  McVay forgot to give the ball to Gurley until the Rams were facing elimination from the playoffs.  He's not that great of a coach.

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Gurley is arthritic and was politely asked to leave the team, even though they’d be paying him millions of dollars to not play for them.

I don’t think it’s an apt comparison.

Edited by BMcP
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48 minutes ago, affliction said:

I’m high on this guy. Targeting him and Hurst heavy in drafts. Higbee is also the better blocker so will see more snaps than Everett 

 

I had an option between Higbee and Hurst in my draft last week.  I took Higbee.  IMO, the way he finished last year will push him in front of Everett (I had him last year).  Could be top 5 potential.  

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I have no idea why this guys adp is so high. He had a couple good games to close the season after Everett, a guy who has also had a couple good games, got injured. I don’t think kupp is good personally, but would be very surprised if he was phased out completely. Then they bring in van Jefferson who might be forced outside but projected as a slot. There’s 89 different guys competing for targets over the middle of the field and basically just woods outside. He’s the ram you want to own. 

Edited by Panthers8912
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1 hour ago, affliction said:

I’m high on this guy. Targeting him and Hurst heavy in drafts. Higbee is also the better blocker so will see more snaps than Everett 

More snaps yes, but the valuable snaps? Tough to say. Funny you should mention hurst. He was a better blocker than mark andrews and actually played on more snaps. Yet andrews has more targets. People also expect more 2 TE sets this year so if 1 of those guys is left in to block it’ll be higbee (assuming you’re correct when you say he’s the better blocker. I really have no idea).

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crazy how aj brown has a 5 game stretch to end his season round 3. drake has 2 good games round 1. A Te outdoes kelce for 5 weeks? round 7 for you TE. I like higbee because of the cheap price. I own a lot of him in bestball and season long so he will make me a mint or i will cry tears.

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On 8/31/2020 at 1:53 PM, Panthers8912 said:

I have no idea why this guys adp is so high. He had a couple good games to close the season after Everett, a guy who has also had a couple good games, got injured. I don’t think kupp is good personally, but would be very surprised if he was phased out completely. Then they bring in van Jefferson who might be forced outside but projected as a slot. There’s 89 different guys competing for targets over the middle of the field and basically just woods outside. He’s the ram you want to own. 

 

"A couple of good games"? He had 4 100+ yard games and an 80something yard game over the last 5 weeks of the season, which is when they switched to 12 personnel.

It'd be silly to expect Higbee to keep up that 1600 yard pace for a whole season obviously, but it does make him outstanding value in that 7/8 round spot.

Edited by Stallion
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I really liked Andrew Cooper's write-up on the TE position in Fantasy Alarm:
https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/AndrewCooper/86132/fantasy-football-tight-end-preview-te-premium-sfbx-draft-strategy/
 

Quote

Gerald Everett  , LA Rams SFBX ADP 188.2

Gerald Everett  has been the better pass catcher of the Rams tight ends this entire time. Higbee finally played well only when he got hurt and only when he played two of the absolute worst teams at guarding the tight end, including the Cardinals who were the very worst. When it was Higbee and Johnny Mundt  in two tight end sets, of course Higbee was the pass catcher. When it’s Higbee and Everett, who is going to be going out for passes?  Sean McVay has an idea.  Even with no Everett, Higbee blocked on 20% of his pass snaps which is Virgil Green  or Jeff Heuerman   territory. I know they are both still locked behind Woods and Kupp but I think it’s bonkers that Higbee goes off the board in round 8 and Everett is available in round 16. Call me old fashioned but I prefer the players who catch to the ones who block in fantasy.

Just my take, but Higbee is going to get people killed in re-draft at the TE position this year. I'm happy to let someone else chase last year's perfect storm.

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On 8/31/2020 at 12:38 AM, isuckatdfs said:

crazy how aj brown has a 5 game stretch to end his season round 3. drake has 2 good games round 1. A Te outdoes kelce for 5 weeks? round 7 for you TE. I like higbee because of the cheap price. I own a lot of him in bestball and season long so he will make me a mint or i will cry tears.

Snagged him in the 12th in a 10 team league because of covid snapped Fant in the 13th.. I'm more optimistic about Higbee though and the "price" was pretty good.

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Not a whole lot of "buzz" around this guy.

Yes, I understand he was pretty irrelevant up until last season BUT when given the chance, like we saw at the end of last year, he went on an absolute tear. I don't imagine the Rams changing what worked for him them at the end of last year when they did personnel adjustments. The Rams paid him pretty handsomely and Everett walks after this year.

I think he does better than what people are giving him credit for. 

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12 hours ago, gmoneypm said:

Not a whole lot of "buzz" around this guy.

Yes, I understand he was pretty irrelevant up until last season BUT when given the chance, like we saw at the end of last year, he went on an absolute tear. I don't imagine the Rams changing what worked for him them at the end of last year when they did personnel adjustments. The Rams paid him pretty handsomely and Everett walks after this year.

I think he does better than what people are giving him credit for. 

Just to repeat (as you are probably aware) that this was mostly the result of their O-line absolutely stinking it up, which forced them to play with 2 TEs more often than usual. 

The Rams seem to think they can do better with more or less the same group (without injuries). If so, the TE usage will probably also be less. If they are wrong, or they have a similar tidal wave of injuries... who knows.

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He's going to be a top 3 TE this season.

Everybody will be talking about him the same way they do Kittle. He's always been an amazing receiver, just look at his college highlights. He really is the whole package at TE. It's just a shame that it took so long to showcase his talent as a pass catcher.

Edited by n4sa
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Just now, affliction said:

At least Everett had a bad drop. But they are going 4 wide at times. 


On Higbee’s 3 catches he showed nice hands and looked quick so I’ll take that.  I guess we’ll just chalk it up to the game script.

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With Everett hurt he is a hold.   I was a little shaken by his lack of targets,  4 is not enough to be elite.  it looks like Kupp is going to take away half of last years targets and if Everett comes back he is going to take more of them.

He is nothing more than a risky TE2 at this point.  To many mouths to feed.  

I cant help but hope Everett is out for awhile as that will help alot.

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