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59 minutes ago, aapox said:

Really love this post. I would appreciate any feedback.

I am drafting 9th out of 12 in my commish league. It's standard (gimme a break, we voted for half-ppr and it didn't pass because we have yardage bonuses :P)

QB

RB

RB

WR

WR

TE

W/R

W/R/T

5pts per: 80 rec yd; 100 rush yd; 250 pass yd

--

Mostly, I've been going Mixon (amongst Adams, CEH, Sanders, Drake) > Drake/Sanders/Jacobs > OBJ/Thielen/Moore > Moore/Ridley/Woods > Woods/Chark/Hunt > Hunt/Rojo/Kyler/Dak

Now, I love this plan. I'm pretty sold on going RB/RB/WR/WR and then either 2 RBs, RB/WR, or maybe one of the 2 and a QB (prob not). But here's what I'm having trouble with. Who is the guy at 9I like Mixon, but am I fool for passing on the safety of Adams, or the upside of CEH? I could also be sold on Sanders, Drake, Chubb or Jacobs but they might be there in round 2.

Also, are Conner or Taylor worth it over one of the WRs in the 3rd? We can start up to 4 RBs and it's standard.

Would love any and all thoughts. Thanks, y'all!

 

EDIT: I am going for late TE (maybe Hurst in 8th, if not Jonnu, if not Jarwin/whatever; as well as late QB - thinking Goff late on since he will hit the 250 bonus a lot.

Also play standard in a ten year old league, we dont do bonus' but do have return yards.we also only have ten guys so the talent pool is bit larger. We use a QB 2RB 3WR TE FLEX DEF set up. Overall we seem to be looking at the same guys and seem to be having the same concerns about Mixon and Chubb.. I'm not down on Chubb infact i think he could be better than last yr with Stefanski calling plays and the addition of Conklin.. It's hard to ignore the Mixon hype this yr though, i did last yr in this exact same scenario and i went Chubb but with Burrows in cincy their minor O-line upgrade and visions of what Gurley did in this system,i'm changing my mind daily.. I draft 10th so its possible i get both or sanders.. atm I'm leaning Mixon for said reasons and that he catches more passes. 

 

I normally go heavy RB and use the flex spot as a RB spot. If i could play 4 rbs i'd 100% draft 3 in a row and 100% draft 4 in a row 50/50 on the 5th. gotta have some quality insurrance if you invest heavy RB imo

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I see this thread deteriorated in a sort of "rate my draft" thread, but when I originally saw the title I thought of something else. My interpretation of the question was: how does picking in early,

It's sickening what a top 3 pick can stack with this season

If Henry doesn't go at 4 or 5 then you hit the lottery.

1 minute ago, NInsko said:

Also play standard in a ten year old league, we dont do bonus' but do have return yards.we also only have ten guys so the talent pool is bit larger. We use a QB 2RB 3WR TE FLEX DEF set up. Overall we seem to be looking at the same guys and seem to be having the same concerns about Mixon and Chubb.. I'm not down on Chubb infact i think he could be better than last yr with Stefanski calling plays and the addition of Conklin.. It's hard ti ignore the Mixon hype this yr though, i did last yr in this exact same scenario and i went Chubb but with Burrows in cincy their minor O-line upgrade and visions of what Gurley did in this system with Mixon i'm changing my mind daily.. I draft 10th so its possible i get both or sanders.. atm I'm leaning Mixon for said reasons and that he catches more passes. 

 

I normally go heavy RB and use the flex spot as a RB spot. If i could play 4 rbs i'd 100% draft 3 in a row and 100% draft 4 in a row 50/50 on the 5th. gotta have some quality insurrance if you invest heavy RB imo

 

Maybe if Conner is there in the 3rd, or Taylor in the 4th, I will, but I just feel like that's where WR's are so much of a safer return on investment. Thanks for the reply! Glad we see eye to eye on Mixon.

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I have 8/12 in a .5 PPR league.  Awful spot, maybe the worst in the draft.  Before me it will go: CMC, Zeke, Barkley, Kamara, MT, Cook, Henry.  

That leaves me CEH/Sanders/Mixon/Jacobs bunch or Tyreek/Julio/Hopkins/Adams. 

Originally I was going to go Tyreek and then probably one of those backs will be there at my 2nd pick.  But lately I've been thinking about going CEH and then if one of those four WR falls to me I take them. CEH + Tyreek/Julio would be nice.  If not, then I will have a start of something like CEH/Mixon or CEH/Jacobs which I would be happy with.

Ultimately I don't think CEH will make it back to me at pick #17 so if I want to get him I have to take him at #8.

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8 hours ago, aapox said:

 

What do you start? Amount of WRs, RBs and Flexes matters here.

Assuming it's 2/2/1:

Hmm. I'd grab CMC, of course, and then assuming that Jacobs/Jones/Chubb/Ekeler are gone, I'd probably take two WR's. They're just so much of a safer bet at that point in the draft. I would try to match an upside/higher TD/aDot/big play guy like Kenny G or Odell with a secure high target type guy like Thielen, DJ Moore, Juju or Woods. Since it's PPR, I don't hate it if you wanna go Bell or maybe Gurley, but I just feel so much better about the WRs. 

IMO, in PPR, the RB2 is one of the easiest positions to stream because of high level pass catchers that compile points. It's not ideal, but you're going to find more RB2 types come available than WR2 types. Typically only WR3 types come available throughout the season. 

Hope this helps!

I’m in a 3 WR league with a flex so i feel like i can’t completely neglect WR in the first 3 rounds. And with 14 teams having two work horse RB would be more valuable assuming they both pan out. But i get your point that RB2s are much easier to get. I might just go super safe to start with Cmac thielen and woods and stock pile mid round RBs hoping one hits 

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6 hours ago, jay2491 said:

I’m in a 3 WR league with a flex so i feel like i can’t completely neglect WR in the first 3 rounds. And with 14 teams having two work horse RB would be more valuable assuming they both pan out. But i get your point that RB2s are much easier to get. I might just go super safe to start with Cmac thielen and woods and stock pile mid round RBs hoping one hits 


Word. I’m not leaving 2/3 without one low end WR1 then. Do you think johnson/bell and that tier will be gone by the 4/5 turn? I’d assume so. I think I might like going WR/WR and then WR/Hunt but if you like Gurley Bell or Johnson it’d be smart to take one at 3rd. I just don’t think they’re worth it there, but that’s part of the difficulty of being on the end, esp in a 14 teamer 

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I drafted 12th in a 16 team PPR league and ended up with Kenyan Drake and Julio Jones in the first 2 rounds.  Looking back, I would have went rb/rb in the first 2 rounds as I ended up with DeAndre Swift of the Lions as my rb2 which I'm not thrilled about.  Plenty of good wr's were still available when my pick came around in the 3rd.  Was hoping to get a decent rb2 in the 3rd round but guys like Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson and even David Montgomery were flying off the board before my pick earlier than expected.

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7 hours ago, jay2491 said:

I’m in a 3 WR league with a flex so i feel like i can’t completely neglect WR in the first 3 rounds. And with 14 teams having two work horse RB would be more valuable assuming they both pan out. But i get your point that RB2s are much easier to get. I might just go super safe to start with Cmac thielen and woods and stock pile mid round RBs hoping one hits 

I’m also at 1 in a 3 WR league. By the time the 2/3 turn happens for me most of the rb’s are gone. Then I’m looking at the tier of Bell/Gurley/Johnson/etc. 

I’ve been going 2 stud wr’s like Amari & Kenny or Odell and loving the team to start. Get a decent rb2 with some upside (Connor Taylor etc). That’s been the best option I’ve found in my mocks. You get potentially 2 WR1’s with McCaffrey 

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I had my draft on Saturday. 12 team full PPR. Pick number 11. Very Meh feeling.

I went D. Adams/ J. Jones/ L. Bell/ J. Schuster/ D. Montgomery/ M. Ingram/ D. Parker/ T. Boyd

In hindsight, if I knew I could get Parker and Boyd that late I definitely would have taken a RB over Julio w/ my 2nd pick. I'm going to need some luck in order to be in contention (drafted Mattison and Pollard).

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I see this thread deteriorated in a sort of "rate my draft" thread, but when I originally saw the title I thought of something else.
My interpretation of the question was: how does picking in early, middle or late position alter your draft strategy?

Preamble

I will look at the first 5-6 rounds in a 12-team draft. Let's first take a look where we can probably find the best value:
- RBs in the top5 are good value, but they drop off quite fast, and by pick 25 generally only slightly damaged RBs are left. Towards the later rounds you can still draft some backups that turn out to be good value later, but you need patience and a lot of luck.
- for WRs there is generally amazing value between pick 15-50. WRs in later rounds only very rarely turn out to be WR1 material, but they will usually have a safer floor than other positions
- QBs in 2020 have depth, but it's still worth it to grab a QB in the first 100 picks. Depending on your league settings (4 vs 6pt TD, PPR or not, etc), I'd start looking at QBs between round 60-90
- TEs are deeper than a couple years ago, but basically in every part of the draft they are overdrafted in the sense that the WRs in the same region are probably worth more, with the possible exception of the absolute top. Therefore, you can either get a TE really early, or completely ignore them and pick them extremely late, or pick 2 in the mid/late rounds hoping one will break out

With that said, let's go through the draft "sections":

Early rounds (pick 1-20)

This is where you probably want to look at RBs, expecially in the first part. Towards the end there will often be a shortage of top RBs already and you should expect to have to look for WRs.

Early/Middle rounds (pick 20-45)

There is so much WR value here that it's hard to pick anything else, but you might also find the occasional TE and even QB value here

Middle rounds (pick 45-65)

Here you should be alert again for some "Damaged Goods" (Bell/DJ/Gurley) or possibly "Hopeful Rookie" RBs (Taylor/Swift), depending on how the draft goes, and also most of the WRs here have some kind of asterisk.

Late Middle rounds (pick 65-90)

You should expect to be RB/WR30, and QB/TE6 in most leagues (obviously 2QB leagues are different, YMMV, bla bla bleh). This means that all RB1s are gone, same for the WRs, but here is still quite a bit of TE/QB value. Here you just need to keep your eyes open and spot where the value is.

Late rounds (pick 90+)

In a 12 team we are now talking about round 8+, which means that most people have picked their starters. You will see the first Def/Ks drafted by autodraft teams, people who go zero-QB/zero-TE will try to pick up their QB/TEs, etc.

OK, so having said that, let's look how that would affect your draft if you pick in early/middle/late position in a typical 12-team draft.

Early position

Let's say you start at pick #3 in a snake, then you would have picks 3, 22/27, 46/51, 70/75; if you follow my guidelines above that would be RB, then WR/WR around the 2/3 turn; WR/RB at the 4/5 turn, then possibly QB/TE. This is quite a reasonable strategy to follow, although you may not really like your RB2.

Late position

If on the other hand you pick #10, then you would have10/15, 34/39, 58/63, 82 and possibly end up with RB/RB, WR/WR, and now you will probably already start looking at TE/QB a bit earlier depending on what is available.

Middle position: 

If you have pick 6, then you have picks 6, 19, 30, 43, 54, 67, 78. This would probably give you: RB, WR, WR, RB, WR, QB/TE. If you follow this, then your 2nd round pick will probably be tough as you have just seen all the nice RBs disappear, and you will need to decide possibly on an early TE; again in the 4th round you will most likely have a tough choice. On the other hand, as you will be up again in a reasonable number of picks, there is a slightly lwoer chance that you might get caught out by a sudden run on one position (TE/RB usually).

So answering my own question: yes, your pick should definitely affect your draft strategy.

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I have put a lot of thought into this I have the #1 pick

At the 2/3 turn my doomsday scenario is Kittle and Lamar Jackson  they mathematically have to be there if Josh Jacob's, ekeler, Hopkins, Godwin are gone

My opinion is golladay/mike evans,thelian,obj with 1200 and 8 arent better picks than Lamar and kittle

Then in the 4th come back with Wr/Wr

So your team could be:

Cmc,lamar,kittle,chark, aj brown

 

Would love comments on this 

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6 hours ago, meverett85 said:

I had my draft on Saturday. 12 team full PPR. Pick number 11. Very Meh feeling.

I went D. Adams/ J. Jones/ L. Bell/ J. Schuster/ D. Montgomery/ M. Ingram/ D. Parker/ T. Boyd

In hindsight, if I knew I could get Parker and Boyd that late I definitely would have taken a RB over Julio w/ my 2nd pick. I'm going to need some luck in order to be in contention (drafted Mattison and Pollard).

I think 11 is a golden spot this year. You’re pretty much guaranteed two RB1 out of Mixon, Jacobs, Sanders, Chubb, Drake, and CEH. The beauty of that third round pick is after everyone is scooping up what’s left of the meh RB’s like the Gurley’s and Bell’s I keep finding stud WR falling to me at the end of the third. 

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On ‎8‎/‎14‎/‎2020 at 12:42 AM, Gohawks said:

Kamara or Sanders

 

I am the 5th spot as well... This was my thought...   I am just curious what your reasons are for passing on Cook,  Henry or Mixon if available.. and going with Sanders in that spot. 

 

I feel he is going to have a breakout year.. talk of being match up proof in the passing game.. and taking the lead back roll.    Eagles always make me nervous though with RB's

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On ‎8‎/‎14‎/‎2020 at 12:42 AM, Gohawks said:

Kamara or Sanders

 

I am the 5th spot as well... This was my thought...   I am just curious what your reasons are for passing on Cook,  Henry or Mixon if available.. and going with Sanders in that spot. 

 

I feel he is going to have a breakout year.. talk of being match up proof in the passing game.. and taking the lead back roll.    Eagles always make me nervous though with RB's

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In a 14 team PPR league(14th pick), Got offered my 4th round pick(43) and 6th round pick(71) for his 3rd round pick(31) and 7th round pick(87).

Is is worth it? I could potentially land Gurley with that 3rd round pick and use my 2nd on a WR? Could start my draft with potentially Mixon/Sanders, Hill & Gurley with the first three picks? Could then potentially get Thielen with my other 3rd round pick(42) if he falls. 

Thoughts?

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On 8/13/2020 at 10:32 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

I draft 10th full ppr. 1qb, 2wr, 2rb, 1 flex

In yahoo mocks, I have been consistently going

10- Adams or Julio Jones- Safe

15- Kelce- Safe

34-DJ Moore or Calvin Ridley- Safe

39- Fournette- A risk, but should get 250 touches gets receiving work and has a cheap handcuff, 

58- Kareem Hunt- This is the trade off of not going RB in the first 3 picks. Stand alone value in ppr and then top 5 rb if chubb misses time

63- Devante Parker or TY Hilton

82- James White or Cohen

87- Landry or Edelman or B. Cooks

106- Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers (Imagine no crowd noise every game these guys will destroy defenses)

Then go WR/RB the entire draft don't draft a defense or a kicker just pick up all handcuffs and upside wr guys. Corona can hit at any minute. 

 

Starting Line-Up Ideal

QB- Brady

WR- Adams and DJ Moore

RB- Fournette and Hunt

TE- Kelce

 

 

 

Had not considered the crowd noise (or potential lack thereof)... Interesting thought for sure... I think the Chiefs have already announced they'll have fans in the stadium for game #1 (a lot can obv change in the next month, but that's the intent) but many others are not... going to be interesting...

Good thought, anyways...

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In 10ers standard & half-ppr matters not what my pick is. Going RB-RB-RB or RB-RB-WR  , rounds 3-6 is flooded with value @ the WR position.  Try to snatch up Kyler Murray in 5th round, if not pivot to Watson. Wait on TE for a Hayden Hurst or Jonnu Smith later on . And I might grab Bears D with my final pick, I have a good feeling about them this year. Akiem hicks is back and healthy , which is just a boon for this dominant defensive line.  Just some thoughts 

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On 8/18/2020 at 4:15 AM, jbarretta said:

I have put a lot of thought into this I have the #1 pick

At the 2/3 turn my doomsday scenario is Kittle and Lamar Jackson  they mathematically have to be there if Josh Jacob's, ekeler, Hopkins, Godwin are gone

My opinion is golladay/mike evans,thelian,obj with 1200 and 8 arent better picks than Lamar and kittle

Then in the 4th come back with Wr/Wr

So your team could be:

Cmc,lamar,kittle,chark, aj brown

 

Would love comments on this 

 

It's a great start in theory despite only having 1 RB -- but (1) I think AJ Brown my not be there (though should still get a very good WR) and (2) TE seems so deep that instead of Kittle, I would go RB there.  I would also take Mahomes over LJax.  But again, it's a great first 5 if it goes according to your plan.

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2 hours ago, RunCMC said:

In 10ers standard & half-ppr matters not what my pick is. Going RB-RB-RB or RB-RB-WR  , rounds 3-6 is flooded with value @ the WR position.  Try to snatch up Kyler Murray in 5th round, if not pivot to Watson. Wait on TE for a Hayden Hurst or Jonnu Smith later on . And I might grab Bears D with my final pick, I have a good feeling about them this year. Akiem hicks is back and healthy , which is just a boon for this dominant defensive line.  Just some thoughts 

This is a good strategy until Michael Thomas comes to you at the 10th pick in a 10 team .5 ppr where you feel obligated to take him 😂

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2 hours ago, Leopard said:

This is a good strategy until Michael Thomas comes to you at the 10th pick in a 10 team .5 ppr where you feel obligated to take him 😂

 

I still wouldn't take him unless I'm in a full ppr league (which i don't play) . And the man is my favorite wideout in the league , went to high school here in LA ,  have multiple jerseys of him. I'm a Saints fan , but I digress. I think with Sanders there as a capable #2 , Brees won't force the issue as much with Thomas. If Kamara is healthy for the whole season that also will change the landscape. If anything Tyreek Hill is poised a monster season ... his ceiling is limitless. But MT is definitely the safer play. Honestly I love starting the draft with a deadly duo or trio of RB's , every mock and actual draft I participate in, they all end with me having a very dominant team. 

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Just curious for those with an early pick 1-4 is anyone targeting Lamar or mahommes on the 2/3 turn in 12-14 team leagues? If i had c Mac and Lamar I’d imagine that’s a pretty damn good floor but I’ve been “wait for a qb” pretty much my whole fantasy career. 

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54 minutes ago, jay2491 said:

Just curious for those with an early pick 1-4 is anyone targeting Lamar or mahommes on the 2/3 turn in 12-14 team leagues? If i had c Mac and Lamar I’d imagine that’s a pretty damn good floor but I’ve been “wait for a qb” pretty much my whole fantasy career. 

With lamar its a little different because he is close to having a qb and rb all wrapped in one. CMC, Lamar, Kittle could be interesting if possible and just load up on wrs the next rounds. Really depends on settings 4 pt passing tds make lamar more valuable. That being said I would go RB-WR-WR.

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Well, I can only speak for my experience, I got the 8 of 12 spot, ppr, gag me, all the elite rbs are off the board(and no, Henry and cook are not above tyreek imo)and wrs, I see tyreek and decide to build around him, get mahomes round 2, points are points, anything 6-10 sucks this year

 

edit:. If Lamar is there, I'm taking him over mahomes, even with the tyreek stack potential, points are points

Edited by 1972Miamidolphins
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5 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

With lamar its a little different because he is close to having a qb and rb all wrapped in one. CMC, Lamar, Kittle could be interesting if possible and just load up on wrs the next rounds. Really depends on settings 4 pt passing tds make lamar more valuable. That being said I would go RB-WR-WR.

It's sickening what a top 3 pick can stack with this season

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13 hours ago, RunCMC said:

In 10ers standard & half-ppr matters not what my pick is. Going RB-RB-RB or RB-RB-WR  , rounds 3-6 is flooded with value @ the WR position.  Try to snatch up Kyler Murray in 5th round, if not pivot to Watson. Wait on TE for a Hayden Hurst or Jonnu Smith later on . And I might grab Bears D with my final pick, I have a good feeling about them this year. Akiem hicks is back and healthy , which is just a boon for this dominant defensive line.  Just some thoughts 

 

FYI Eddie Goldman opted out. We have Bilal Nichols to fill the role, and he has some ability, but he's not Eddie. I'm hoping for the best but it could be a big negative on our run D.

Edit: re everything else, love it.

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