Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Duke Johnson 2020 Outlook


Recommended Posts

I looked but didn't see a thread already started. Not surprising since many would think him to be nothing but a handcuff. But, as this article suggests he could have some stand alone value this season....

  • Texans running backs coach Danny Barrett said having David Johnson and Duke Johnson on the field at the same time could make it harder for defenses to disguise their schemes.

    Barrett and Texans HC Bill O'Brien talked up an increase in the team's usage of 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end) this season. The personnel grouping would give QB Deshaun Watson a "clearer picture" of the defense and create mismatches against linebackers covering David and Duke Johnson one on one. “We’re going to try to really expose their defense,” David Johnson said. “Whatever they give us, we’re going to definitely be able to use that as an advantage.” While this is the time of year when every coach is going to have every running back on the field at the same time, Duke Johnson would have solid standalone value if Houston follows through and uses 21 personnel often in 2020. 

    RELATED: 
    SOURCE: The Athletic
    Aug 19, 2020, 10:06 AM ET
     
  •  

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 207
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

The Duke Johnson thread is the exact same, every single year, no matter what. "Not just a handcuff!" "He's not just a CoP!" "He's the best back on the team." "That guy they signed

Drop him before the game and save yourself the headache. 

Posted Images

7 hours ago, The G Man said:

I looked but didn't see a thread already started. Not surprising since many would think him to be nothing but a handcuff. But, as this article suggests he could have some stand alone value this season....

  • Texans running backs coach Danny Barrett said having David Johnson and Duke Johnson on the field at the same time could make it harder for defenses to disguise their schemes.

    Barrett and Texans HC Bill O'Brien talked up an increase in the team's usage of 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end) this season. The personnel grouping would give QB Deshaun Watson a "clearer picture" of the defense and create mismatches against linebackers covering David and Duke Johnson one on one. “We’re going to try to really expose their defense,” David Johnson said. “Whatever they give us, we’re going to definitely be able to use that as an advantage.” While this is the time of year when every coach is going to have every running back on the field at the same time, Duke Johnson would have solid standalone value if Houston follows through and uses 21 personnel often in 2020. 

    RELATED: 
    SOURCE: The Athletic
    Aug 19, 2020, 10:06 AM ET
     
  •  

 


That means they wasted the money they paid Cobb to be their slot WR. This is classic coachspeak.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

Virtually no chatter here about Duke and he's being drafted well into the 10th round or so.

Behind an aging and often injured David Johnson, I think he has very underrated value in .5PPR and PPR leagues, especially with D Hop out of town. There are plenty of targets freed up and to go around with a Watson in his prime.

He always seems to produce when given the chance. Do you think he can end the season as a viable RB3?

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

Virtually no chatter here about Duke and he's being drafted well into the 10th round or so.

Behind an aging and often injured David Johnson, I think he has very underrated value in .5PPR and PPR leagues, especially with D Hop out of town. There are plenty of targets freed up and to go around with a Watson in his prime.

He always seems to produce when given the chance. Do you think he can end the season as a viable RB3?

 

Absolutely. He's a must draft for PPR IMO

Link to post
Share on other sites

He is a great value imo, but I admit I have zero faith that David Johnson remains an effective RB. I noticed this in an Athletic article today:

"Duke Johnson in the 14th round is crazy cheap. No one who watches football needs ProFootballFocus to tell us he’s the best Texans running back but there’s objective validation if you want it. I understand the narrative that Bill O’Brien wants David Johnson to work. But Johnson looked washed-up last year. Even if Duke Johnson has only the role he did last year — extremely unlikely — he’s so efficient/good that even with his low 2019 touches he was PPR RB25 last year."

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Duke Johnson thread is the exact same, every single year, no matter what.

"Not just a handcuff!"

"He's not just a CoP!"

"He's the best back on the team."

"That guy they signed is old/washed up/injured/JAG!"

And then,

Every
Single
Time...

He's a CoP back, who gets outplayed, out touched, and out produced by every back you guys pretend couldn't hold Duke's jockstap.

Terrence West, Isaiah Crowell, Nick Chubb, Carlos Hyde in CLE, then Carlos Hyde again in HOU, and now it's 2020 with David Johnson.

Even if DJ gets hurt... more than likely, they're going to sign someone off the street to come in and take the lead back role, rather than give it to Duke Johnson, because despite what this forum thinks, the coaches who watch this man practice and play know that he is nothing more than a change of pace back.  He is not a bellcow.  5 years in a row he's proved this to you, 5 years in a row his coaches have made it clear, and for 5 years you keep chasing this unicorn role he won't have.

In fact, you guys have spent more years telling people he's not just a CoP back, than he has games with double digit carries in his entire career.

Four (4)
5 years in the league, never missed a game, 82 games played... and a grand total of 4 times, has he ever had double digit carries.  10, 10, 12, and 13.
He has NEVER touched the ball more than 17 times in a game.

Now... that's not to say that being a passing back specialist doesn't have value and it definitely doesn't mean his current ADP (12 team PPR) of 12th round doesn't provide an opportunity.  Unfortunately, it seems everyone is chasing 2017 in which Duke had a statistical outlier in both targets and touchdowns, both of which inflated his overall finishing position that year (11th) where he more than doubled his career average TD rate (255%), had 36% more targets than his career average rate, resulting in 44% higher receptions than his career average, 47% higher reception yards than his career average rate, and 48% more fantasy points than his career average rate. *Average Calculated by his other 4 years compared to 2017.

There is no logical reason to expect HOU to do more with Duke this year, than they did last year, in which he ranked 41st in points per game among RBs.

Sometimes, when you're desperate, 4-14 points per game from a RB in full point PPR leagues is all you need.  With Duke, you're praying for a TD, which statistically you only have an 19% chance of getting.  Maybe with Hopkins gone, this offense transforms, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

He's a poor man's Tarik Cohen, who was already a poor man's James White.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

The Duke Johnson thread is the exact same, every single year, no matter what.

"Not just a handcuff!"

"He's not just a CoP!"

"He's the best back on the team."

"That guy they signed is old/washed up/injured/JAG!"

And then,

Every
Single
Time...

He's a CoP back, who gets outplayed, out touched, and out produced by every back you guys pretend couldn't hold Duke's jockstap.

Terrence West, Isaiah Crowell, Nick Chubb, Carlos Hyde in CLE, then Carlos Hyde again in HOU, and now it's 2020 with David Johnson.

Even if DJ gets hurt... more than likely, they're going to sign someone off the street to come in and take the lead back role, rather than give it to Duke Johnson, because despite what this forum thinks, the coaches who watch this man practice and play know that he is nothing more than a change of pace back.  He is not a bellcow.  5 years in a row he's proved this to you, 5 years in a row his coaches have made it clear, and for 5 years you keep chasing this unicorn role he won't have.

In fact, you guys have spent more years telling people he's not just a CoP back, than he has games with double digit carries in his entire career.

Four (4)
5 years in the league, never missed a game, 82 games played... and a grand total of 4 times, has he ever had double digit carries.  10, 10, 12, and 13.
He has NEVER touched the ball more than 17 times in a game.

Now... that's not to say that being a passing back specialist doesn't have value and it definitely doesn't mean his current ADP (12 team PPR) of 12th round doesn't provide an opportunity.  Unfortunately, it seems everyone is chasing 2017 in which Duke had a statistical outlier in both targets and touchdowns, both of which inflated his overall finishing position that year (11th) where he more than doubled his career average TD rate (255%), had 36% more targets than his career average rate, resulting in 44% higher receptions than his career average, 47% higher reception yards than his career average rate, and 48% more fantasy points than his career average rate. *Average Calculated by his other 4 years compared to 2017.

There is no logical reason to expect HOU to do more with Duke this year, than they did last year, in which he ranked 41st in points per game among RBs.

Sometimes, when you're desperate, 4-14 points per game from a RB in full point PPR leagues is all you need.  With Duke, you're praying for a TD, which statistically you only have an 19% chance of getting.  Maybe with Hopkins gone, this offense transforms, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

He's a poor man's Tarik Cohen, who was already a poor man's James White.

 

Tell me how you really feel

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No but seriously excellent post. Be smart gentlemen don’t grab this Johnson

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

The Duke Johnson thread is the exact same, every single year, no matter what.

"Not just a handcuff!"

"He's not just a CoP!"

"He's the best back on the team."

"That guy they signed is old/washed up/injured/JAG!"

And then,

Every
Single
Time...

He's a CoP back, who gets outplayed, out touched, and out produced by every back you guys pretend couldn't hold Duke's jockstap.

Terrence West, Isaiah Crowell, Nick Chubb, Carlos Hyde in CLE, then Carlos Hyde again in HOU, and now it's 2020 with David Johnson.

Even if DJ gets hurt... more than likely, they're going to sign someone off the street to come in and take the lead back role, rather than give it to Duke Johnson, because despite what this forum thinks, the coaches who watch this man practice and play know that he is nothing more than a change of pace back.  He is not a bellcow.  5 years in a row he's proved this to you, 5 years in a row his coaches have made it clear, and for 5 years you keep chasing this unicorn role he won't have.


The same coaches who: 

1. led a talented roster to an 0-16 finish (while doubting that Wentz could be franchise a QB

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/philadelphia-eagles/hue-jackson-carson-wentz-wasnt-right-fit-browns%3famp)

-and in a March 2018 interview with Schefter said that LJax wasn’t a franchise QB.

 

2. Started Tom Savage over Watson despite having months to see them in practice every single day. 
 

I don’t put too much stock in the caliber of NFL coaching Duke Johnson has received. The one year he got volume was the one year he was an RB1 in PPR.  He is the all-time rushing leader at Miami not because he’s only a COP RB. 
 

Shame that by the time he actually gets competent coaching he’ll be near the end of his career.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, joshua18 said:

The one year he got volume was the one year he was an RB1 in PPR.

 

Your argument would have been a lot more impactful if the "volume" he received that year wasn't just more "change of pace" work.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I was admittedly a big Duke fan when he came out of college. I drafted him for cheap in a keeper league that year(long since thrown him back). He put up numbers at Miami and I thought he could be an NFL bellcow, but I agree with people who are saying if it was going to happen it would've. For some reason, coaches who have a very real interest in putting the best guys on the field haven't trusted him to run between the tackles. I'm not one of those guys who sits behind my computer and calls any coach an idiot who doesn't do what I think they should do, so I'm guessing there's something to it.

HOWEVER, maybe this is the year he gets the keys just out of necessity. I'm not sure how much DJ has left in the tank, and if he goes down who else will get the carries? There's a guy named Howell listed at 3rd on the depth chart who's been in the league a couple years and has 5 career carries. Someone else will be involved in some capacity but I would think Duke will finally get a healthy amount of carries/touches to work with if something happens to DJ.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/29/2020 at 10:47 PM, FFCollusion said:

The Duke Johnson thread is the exact same, every single year, no matter what.

"Not just a handcuff!"

"He's not just a CoP!"

"He's the best back on the team."

"That guy they signed is old/washed up/injured/JAG!"

And then,

Every
Single
Time...

He's a CoP back, who gets outplayed, out touched, and out produced by every back you guys pretend couldn't hold Duke's jockstap.

Terrence West, Isaiah Crowell, Nick Chubb, Carlos Hyde in CLE, then Carlos Hyde again in HOU, and now it's 2020 with David Johnson.

Even if DJ gets hurt... more than likely, they're going to sign someone off the street to come in and take the lead back role, rather than give it to Duke Johnson, because despite what this forum thinks, the coaches who watch this man practice and play know that he is nothing more than a change of pace back.  He is not a bellcow.  5 years in a row he's proved this to you, 5 years in a row his coaches have made it clear, and for 5 years you keep chasing this unicorn role he won't have.

In fact, you guys have spent more years telling people he's not just a CoP back, than he has games with double digit carries in his entire career.

Four (4)
5 years in the league, never missed a game, 82 games played... and a grand total of 4 times, has he ever had double digit carries.  10, 10, 12, and 13.
He has NEVER touched the ball more than 17 times in a game.

Now... that's not to say that being a passing back specialist doesn't have value and it definitely doesn't mean his current ADP (12 team PPR) of 12th round doesn't provide an opportunity.  Unfortunately, it seems everyone is chasing 2017 in which Duke had a statistical outlier in both targets and touchdowns, both of which inflated his overall finishing position that year (11th) where he more than doubled his career average TD rate (255%), had 36% more targets than his career average rate, resulting in 44% higher receptions than his career average, 47% higher reception yards than his career average rate, and 48% more fantasy points than his career average rate. *Average Calculated by his other 4 years compared to 2017.

There is no logical reason to expect HOU to do more with Duke this year, than they did last year, in which he ranked 41st in points per game among RBs.

Sometimes, when you're desperate, 4-14 points per game from a RB in full point PPR leagues is all you need.  With Duke, you're praying for a TD, which statistically you only have an 19% chance of getting.  Maybe with Hopkins gone, this offense transforms, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

He's a poor man's Tarik Cohen, who was already a poor man's James White.

 

they are already finding ways to convince themselves that this will be the year he breaks out have having ANOTHER rb get brought in to start. Don't see anything that goes against what we've seen year in and year out

Edited by Guwop
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, bgar15 said:

Sneaky start tomorrow night in PPR leagues with Brandin Cooks potentially sitting out? 

 

Most likely negative game script vs KC right?

Thinking about putting him in over similiar queasy question marks like akers and cohen. Gross. I feel good about Duke though.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The question is how will he be used? Is he nothing more than a COP/breather back? And, is it a presumptive 70/30 or 75/25 split in favor of David? 

Or, might he have some stand alone value if they put him out there for his own series or two, as well as perhaps some sets with both DJ's on the field at the same time? 

Anyone have any insight from TC reports or local feed?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...