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Duke Johnson 2020 Outlook


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10 minutes ago, The G Man said:

The question is how will he be used? Is he nothing more than a COP/breather back? And, is it a presumptive 70/30 or 75/25 split in favor of David? 

Or, might he have some stand alone value if they put him out there for his own series or two, as well as perhaps some sets with both DJ's on the field at the same time? 

Anyone have any insight from TC reports or local feed?


All the same questions. I’m surprised at the lack of color on this situation. 

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The Duke Johnson thread is the exact same, every single year, no matter what. "Not just a handcuff!" "He's not just a CoP!" "He's the best back on the team." "That guy they signed

Drop him before the game and save yourself the headache. 

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14 minutes ago, pdog109 said:

 

RW forum is no place for personal attacks like this, but carry on hating me for no reason.

1) Duke Johnson is not fantasy relevant 

2) That's not a personal attack by any stretch of the imagination

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1 minute ago, cs3 said:

1) Duke Johnson is not fantasy relevant 

2) That's not a personal attack by any stretch of the imagination

 

1) Depends on the league. In an 8 team league, probably not. In a 14 team PPR league, probably more likely to be relevant.

2) Most definitely is "stay mad" and "champ" (ironically i did win my league last year) but comes off as a derisive comment

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2 hours ago, Vendetta said:

He's still a hold for me for now as a DaJ owner, at least until we hopefully get injury updates on both tomorrow; I'm still slightly worried about DaJ's wrist since he injured it previously.

 

Yeah, pretty much my thoughts as well. He still has value as a cuff. 

Watching the replay this morning, it looks like it was something with his left foot/ankle (and non contact). Will be monitoring the injury report for any potential long term injury. If so, it's Dumpsville for me. 

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3 hours ago, Kilo said:

Even if you're a DJ owner, I might look elsewhere for a backup RB.  IMO, there was a big difference when David J got carries vs Duke J.  Duke did not look good.

 

Agreed on the last part at least - Duke looked quite sluggish in his limited carries, which probably stood out even more because David looked quite spry. Same thing with Darrell vs. CEH.

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3 hours ago, Kilo said:

Even if you're a DJ owner, I might look elsewhere for a backup RB.  IMO, there was a big difference when David J got carries vs Duke J.  Duke did not look good.

Agreed. I play in a variety of league/roster sizes and I would not pick up Duke anywhere. The guy looked bad last night and hasn’t been fantasy relevant since...?

 

If DJ goes down, there seems to be about a zero percent chance Duke becomes the feature back the rest of the year. It would be a Freeman signing or trading for someone like a Gus Edwards. 

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7 minutes ago, vikesrube said:

Agreed. I play in a variety of league/roster sizes and I would not pick up Duke anywhere. The guy looked bad last night and hasn’t been fantasy relevant since...?

 

If DJ goes down, there seems to be about a zero percent chance Duke becomes the feature back the rest of the year. It would be a Freeman signing or trading for someone like a Gus Edwards. 

From a Rotoworld blurb: "Texans promoted RB Scottie Phillips from their practice squad."

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9 hours ago, pdog109 said:

 

People told me he would get hurt right before half time during week 1? I guess i missed that on the spot prediction.

Getting hurt really isn't the point. Even when healthy he's been garbage. It would have to be a really deep league for him to have any relevance.

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1 hour ago, FitzMagic said:

Getting hurt really isn't the point. Even when healthy he's been garbage. It would have to be a really deep league for him to have any relevance.

 

He was on the field in the game though and would have definitely gotten some garbage time points had he not gotten hurt. That's the point. Garbage time points are still points. That's precisely why i started him in the first place. If they had been playing another team i probably wouldn't have started him but considering KC blew them out he would have been in line for garbage time points.

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On 8/29/2020 at 10:47 PM, FFCollusion said:

The Duke Johnson thread is the exact same, every single year, no matter what.

"Not just a handcuff!"

"He's not just a CoP!"

"He's the best back on the team."

"That guy they signed is old/washed up/injured/JAG!"

And then,

Every
Single
Time...

He's a CoP back, who gets outplayed, out touched, and out produced by every back you guys pretend couldn't hold Duke's jockstap.

Terrence West, Isaiah Crowell, Nick Chubb, Carlos Hyde in CLE, then Carlos Hyde again in HOU, and now it's 2020 with David Johnson.

Even if DJ gets hurt... more than likely, they're going to sign someone off the street to come in and take the lead back role, rather than give it to Duke Johnson, because despite what this forum thinks, the coaches who watch this man practice and play know that he is nothing more than a change of pace back.  He is not a bellcow.  5 years in a row he's proved this to you, 5 years in a row his coaches have made it clear, and for 5 years you keep chasing this unicorn role he won't have.

In fact, you guys have spent more years telling people he's not just a CoP back, than he has games with double digit carries in his entire career.

Four (4)
5 years in the league, never missed a game, 82 games played... and a grand total of 4 times, has he ever had double digit carries.  10, 10, 12, and 13.
He has NEVER touched the ball more than 17 times in a game.

Now... that's not to say that being a passing back specialist doesn't have value and it definitely doesn't mean his current ADP (12 team PPR) of 12th round doesn't provide an opportunity.  Unfortunately, it seems everyone is chasing 2017 in which Duke had a statistical outlier in both targets and touchdowns, both of which inflated his overall finishing position that year (11th) where he more than doubled his career average TD rate (255%), had 36% more targets than his career average rate, resulting in 44% higher receptions than his career average, 47% higher reception yards than his career average rate, and 48% more fantasy points than his career average rate. *Average Calculated by his other 4 years compared to 2017.

There is no logical reason to expect HOU to do more with Duke this year, than they did last year, in which he ranked 41st in points per game among RBs.

Sometimes, when you're desperate, 4-14 points per game from a RB in full point PPR leagues is all you need.  With Duke, you're praying for a TD, which statistically you only have an 19% chance of getting.  Maybe with Hopkins gone, this offense transforms, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

He's a poor man's Tarik Cohen, who was already a poor man's James White.

This seems to me to be the most accurate take of Duke's situation.  And now he's hurt.

Everyone plays in different sized leagues and scoring formats, I understand.  But in most leagues I'd suspect it's time to cut bait if you bought.

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8 hours ago, WaiverLooter said:

For what it's worth, he's a prime hot drop candidate on yahoo leagues. I had him as a handcuff to DJ but now I might be tempted to grab someone like Boston Scott or Malcolm Brown instead.

 

Right. After the injury. After he got hurt. If he didn't get hurt and possibly produced at least 10 PPR points no one would be in here with the same old tired RW i told you so narrative. The maturity level of some RW posters is at the Kindergarten level, quick to post the I told you so because I know everything about fantasy football and you don't jack attitude is so persuasive, its disgusting.

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