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Seeing as there's a general draft strategy thread for snakes, I thought we might as well get one for auctions.

I know the main strategies have been written to death: studs vs duds, middle draft value, etc.  But in here maybe we can discuss each other's auction strategies with specific players and dollar figures.  

For example, I can keep Robert Woods for $18 which I'm done.  I think he'll have a pretty good year, so with that locked in my strategy is to get Josh Jacobs and another one of the Tier 1,2, or 3 backs.  The top backs usually go for $75+ in my leagues, so I doubt I'll pay that but maybe.  If I were to pay $45 for Jacobs, $70 for Kamara, $18 for Woods that's basically $135/$200 spent, but a solid core.  Two backs who I think will be great, plus a consistent if not spectacular WR to build around.  We all know there are many WR value picks, so for example I'd look at somebody like D. Johnson from the Steelers for sure.  

You know going in if you pay up for a top RB, you're likely looking at a pretty inactive period while your opponents scoop up the good values in the middle of the draft.  

 

If this isn't such a great idea, it can rot away to the bottom pages or be deleted.  

Edited by Mustangt125
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Here is a quick and simple Auction Exploit Tool I create for myself each year.  There are 2 main ways to use it, as a value indicator, but the simpler method is to use it as a Nomination Priority list

The top 5-6 RBs tend to score more points than almost all WRs. Last year 6 RBs out scored the WR2. So what I do is draft 3 RBs that have a path to top 5 potential. Usually one stud and the cheapest of

Depends on the nature of your league. My buddy league inflates top values by a LOT -- CMC went for 93 (yes ninety three), kamara 81, cook 80, barkley 87, etc. Even further down in the draft the prices

why would the jacobs owner not keep jacobs when he went for cheaper than 45 in 2019? Also in your league if you won kamara in 2017 for a few dollars how long do you get to keep him for that price? 

Woods is fine for 18 but not a screaming value imo. I do like woods to have a great 2020 for sure but i would want to keep someone for better.For instance if you could keep dk metcalf for 2 to 5 or woods for 18 i rather do dk metcalf. same if i had chark. 

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I don't play in an auction keeper/dynasty, so specifics change every year, but at RB I'm generally looking for guys who will exceed value.  Trying to take advantage of uncertainty. 

Last year that led me to get Jacobs (rookie on a bad team) and Gurley (former superstar with big time injury concerns) for something like 50/200 combined, + Mongomery for another 15-20.

So I had 3 guys for 2 RB slots (no flex league) for like 30% of my budget.  Worked out with Jacobs, but the Gurley and Monty weren't great (but passable since I had Lamar at QB).

I think the studs+duds guy ended up winning last year, though the year before it was a disaster for him.

This year, I'm projecting

1. CMC and Barkley to go for 70+

2. Zeke, Kamara, Henry 60+

3. Cook 50+

This next group is where I'm looking (in no particular order):

4. Jones, Mixon, CEH, Sanders, Drake, Jacobs, Chubb, Ekeler.  Some will go for 50+, but there's a decent chance some will be available for under 50.  If I can get 2 of them at less than 50% of my budget total, I feel pretty good about it.

Now here's where you get guys that should all be under 50, but wouldn't love at over 40:

5. Taylor, Bell, Gurley, Conner, DJ, Gordon, Carson, Fournette, Mostert, Swift.  If you can get one of them for 30-35, you're probably in good shape.  At the same time, it's a gamble because odds are at least half that list will bust.

And here are your (likely) "cheap" options, but I wouldn't go over 25 for any of them:

6. Dobbins, Ingram, RoJo, Singletary, Monty, Hunt, etc.

I'm almost definitely starting my shopping with group 4, looking for value but willing to go to bat for at least one of them.  After that, there will be a couple targets I'll have, but with a hard cap for what I'll spend. 

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My auction turned a new leaf last year and now we do contracts and keepers, so 40 or more players will be off the board when we start it.  Now we start 1 QB and 7 of any non QB you like, any mix.  No K, no D.  

I made a trade to get Moore and Mostert as keepers, because my own roster had trash to keep.  I start with Tyreek Hill $41, DJ Moore $28, Conner $24, Mostert $10.   I can sign one draftee to a three year contract that gives me this guy at $10 cheaper each year than draft cost in '21 and '22.   

I'm going to blow my remaining budget on two or three guys and take a stab at getting production out of $1-$2 guys.  Just haven't decided who yet.  My goal is to get Dobbins or Taylor and contract them, hopefully their price stays low since their 2020 contributions are in question.  

Gonna be a crazy draft and i have no idea how one plans this out.  There are maybe 3 top 30 players not already spoken for, and cash aplenty as many guys are rostered for less than they'd cost untethered.  

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I have always tried to spend about 70% on my top 5 players. Usually QB, 2 RB’s, 2 WR’s, but going a little cheaper at QB & WR2 for a stronger TE also works. Finding cheap value at WR is easier than at RB, especially off waivers.  That formula has always (at worst) kept me in the playoff hunt. 

Edited by lvsaint429
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The #1 auction strategy is to know the price ranges and go in with NO SET STRATEGY. 
 

An auction draft is a living organism. It can be completely unpredictable. You have to be ready to pull the trigger on players you might not necessarily love if it seems no one else loves them either. You’re buying points. Get the best $/point metrics you can find. 

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19 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

The #1 auction strategy is to know the price ranges and go in with NO SET STRATEGY. 
 

An auction draft is a living organism. It can be completely unpredictable. You have to be ready to pull the trigger on players you might not necessarily love if it seems no one else loves them either. You’re buying points. Get the best $/point metrics you can find. 

Sure, have an idea of what the value is, but every auction is different. You never know when a player is getting thrown out. The beauty of auctions is that you can have anybody you really want if you work your bankroll right.
If I miss out on someone I like because it’s getting too expensive, then I’ll look at someone else. But if I’m targeting specific players I’m high on, I’ll wait. I’d be kicking myself all season if I settled on a “bargain” & missed out on my guy who ends up having a great year

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i always make sure to leave an auction with 1 first rounder a 1 2nd rounder or 2 first rounders.

tonight in a superflex lamar went for 60. a month ago he went for 38. I paid 38 for lamar but no way in hell i would pay 60 tonight. both were 12 team leagues although in the other league we start 3 wr and have 2 rbwrte flexes where tonight was just 1 flex and 1 superflex plus the 2 rb 2 wr 1 te.

tonight my team was cousins minshew big ben darnold cmac miles rjones chark diontae slayton reagor djax ayuik higbee chiefs kicker. in 1 qb auctions non superflex i am not scared to go full on 3 first rounders but tonight in superflex i was more scared to go that route when qb even someone like drew lock was going for like 15 early on. I paid 18 for big ben cause if he bust at least  got 3 other qbs. I will not go down the rudolph hodges rabbit hole no fn thank you. I was happy to get chark for i think like 10 dollars to pair with minshew. I also got the big ben diontae stack. I was planning to stack wentz with reagor but wentz went for like 24 or 25 so i let him go.

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My goal in auction drafts is to build a team I could not build in a conventional snake draft.  That typically means drafting 3 players who have first and second round ADPs.  The guys I've been targeting a lot this year were Sanders, Drake and George Kittle/Kelce.  These three especially allowed me plenty of left over money to round out the rest of my roster.  I've found I like my teams significantly more when I get two RBs in the CEH/Sanders/Drake tier rather than paying up for one of the top tier RB1s. The more balanced RB and spending approach yields way better depth and leaves me with way less roster holes to fill in-season.  However, with the uncertainty surrounding Sanders now I'm pivoting to subbing in a Zeke or Kamara in for him in case we don't get optimistic news on his injury.  I'm also actively avoiding the Round 3-5 RBs.

 

As a rule I'm spending the bare minimum at WR this year.  Of course nothing is set in concrete in an auction but all the value to be had at WR this year makes it feel wasteful to spend significant $ on higher end WR1s. There are simply too many guys who go for cheap who offer good WR2 production with WR1 upside.  

 

 

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The top 5-6 RBs tend to score more points than almost all WRs. Last year 6 RBs out scored the WR2. So what I do is draft 3 RBs that have a path to top 5 potential. Usually one stud and the cheapest of them. so this year would probably be Zeke. Then the 2 others would be high volume usage and pass catching backs so guys miles sanders or drake. This is usually as safe route because if they hit you essentially have 2 possibly 3 of the top 7-8 scorers in fantasy which is almost like having 2 players in one position. If they only have decent years the RB2 on average Still scores more that the WR2 on average by about 20% and if you pick backs that are high usage there almost certain to be at least RB2s on shear volume. 
 

Then you take multiple stabs at the right end break out. If you got kittle for 2$ two years ago or andrews for 2$ last year you had such an advantage over the guy who got kelce even tho kelce was the TE1. So spend 8-10$ and get 2 or 3 tight ends that have a path to success.

WR is the least of my priorities because it seems to be the most fluctuate. You have a much better chance drafting a top 10 WR late than a top 10RB and there is always guys coming up in the waiver wire to have success like chark, scary terry, DVP, Macon Jones, deebo, and evening cole Beasley were all on waivers at some point last year and all were useful. last year in half PPR the RB6 and the WR42 combined outscored the WR2 and the RB24 combined. It just makes sense to take your shots studs 

 

Stream QB Daniel Jones’s and Gardner minshews are everywhere. If you’re in a super flex then. I still say draft em late take shots an hound in proven talent. Wentz, mahomes, Lamar all were unproven and were league winners that could be had for next to nothing in a lot of leagues. Some sharp leagues caught on to Lamar however. 

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just do enough mocks with all different strategies and you have everything covered. then  let the draft unfold. if prices are crazy early then wait. if you see half the teams not bidding and waiting then might be smart to strike early.

nominations should be over priced or hyped players you are not targeting. for me ill nominate the gallup, hollywood brown, woods or other wr2 you dont want early to make sure they go for fair or more value. helps you out to get rid of players you dont like in the same tier of players you are targeting.

Edited by colepenhagen
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One thing i have no problem doing in auctions is taking a chance with 3 or 4 1 dollar players super late so if they bust i have no problem cutting them. Nothing worse imo then having a player is too good to cut but not good enough to make a difference. For instance i think of someone like david montgomery last year. HE sucked and was the most boring of rb2s but you could never cut him but he was never the reason anyone won their league either. I rather own 1 cmac then 4 david montgomery types and i will figure out my other 3 spots with dollar store people like last years aj brown deebo chark etc (hoping i hit on one of them no way you will hit on all of them).

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full ppr how would you feel if you got 3 good wr say something like godwin, sutton, dk then for ur rb situation you went volume and upside. bell, gurley, dj, hunt, dobbins?

actually accomplished this with pretty reasonable prices miuns some late value

12 teamer


1. Chris Godwin (TB - WR) $41
2. Todd Gurley II (Atl - RB) $34
3. David Johnson (Hou - RB) $20
4. Le'Veon Bell (NYJ - RB) $28
5. Kareem Hunt (Cle - RB) $13
6. J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB) $7
7. DK Metcalf (Sea - WR) $18
8. Darren Waller (LV - TE) $8
9. Josh Allen (Buf - QB) $6
10. Courtland Sutton (Den - WR) $11
11. A.J. Green (Cin - WR) $5
12. Marquise Brown (Bal - WR) $6
13. Diontae Johnson (Pit - WR) $1
14. Kansas City (KC - DEF) $1
15. Robbie Gould (SF - K) $1

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3 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

full ppr how would you feel if you got 3 good wr say something like godwin, sutton, dk then for ur rb situation you went volume and upside. bell, gurley, dj, hunt, dobbins?

actually accomplished this with pretty reasonable prices miuns some late value

12 teamer


1. Chris Godwin (TB - WR) $41
2. Todd Gurley II (Atl - RB) $34
3. David Johnson (Hou - RB) $20
4. Le'Veon Bell (NYJ - RB) $28
5. Kareem Hunt (Cle - RB) $13
6. J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB) $7
7. DK Metcalf (Sea - WR) $18
8. Darren Waller (LV - TE) $8
9. Josh Allen (Buf - QB) $6
10. Courtland Sutton (Den - WR) $11
11. A.J. Green (Cin - WR) $5
12. Marquise Brown (Bal - WR) $6
13. Diontae Johnson (Pit - WR) $1
14. Kansas City (KC - DEF) $1
15. Robbie Gould (SF - K) $1


So this is a real draft?

im not belittling it but it’s not for me. I’d rather die than have those RBs but man I love those wrs DK, Sutton, green, and brown at those prices is awesome. Which is why I would Rather Take the money for Godwin, gurley, hunt, DJ, and dobbins and just get 2 stud RBs 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

full ppr how would you feel if you got 3 good wr say something like godwin, sutton, dk then for ur rb situation you went volume and upside. bell, gurley, dj, hunt, dobbins?

actually accomplished this with pretty reasonable prices miuns some late value

12 teamer


1. Chris Godwin (TB - WR) $41
2. Todd Gurley II (Atl - RB) $34
3. David Johnson (Hou - RB) $20
4. Le'Veon Bell (NYJ - RB) $28
5. Kareem Hunt (Cle - RB) $13
6. J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB) $7
7. DK Metcalf (Sea - WR) $18
8. Darren Waller (LV - TE) $8
9. Josh Allen (Buf - QB) $6
10. Courtland Sutton (Den - WR) $11
11. A.J. Green (Cin - WR) $5
12. Marquise Brown (Bal - WR) $6
13. Diontae Johnson (Pit - WR) $1
14. Kansas City (KC - DEF) $1
15. Robbie Gould (SF - K) $1

I like the idea but it's so risky. Gurley Johnson and bell are all questionable for injuries or inconsistent value over the weeks. But if they work nice and stay on the floor you have a good team, your strategy could be used if the top rb go for over 60 $

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On 8/22/2020 at 3:37 PM, colepenhagen said:

full ppr how would you feel if you got 3 good wr say something like godwin, sutton, dk then for ur rb situation you went volume and upside. bell, gurley, dj, hunt, dobbins?

actually accomplished this with pretty reasonable prices miuns some late value

12 teamer


1. Chris Godwin (TB - WR) $41
2. Todd Gurley II (Atl - RB) $34
3. David Johnson (Hou - RB) $20
4. Le'Veon Bell (NYJ - RB) $28
5. Kareem Hunt (Cle - RB) $13
6. J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB) $7
7. DK Metcalf (Sea - WR) $18
8. Darren Waller (LV - TE) $8
9. Josh Allen (Buf - QB) $6
10. Courtland Sutton (Den - WR) $11
11. A.J. Green (Cin - WR) $5
12. Marquise Brown (Bal - WR) $6
13. Diontae Johnson (Pit - WR) $1
14. Kansas City (KC - DEF) $1
15. Robbie Gould (SF - K) $1

If I'm looking to target WR like you were planning here I'd get a 60$ range RB1 like Kamara, Zeke or CEH to build around.  I don't like the the thought of spending a combined 62$ on Gurley and Bell when you could get a sure fire RB1 for around that cost

Edited by YoungDro
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Just did a mock, so giant grain of salt, but had an insight to how I'd like to go about it this year.

My league is half ppr, all TDs = 6 pts, QB/2RB/3WR/TE/D/K

If I can do something like QB for 20ish (I have a particular one in mind) and 2 stud WRs for 80-100 total, that would leave me with 80-100 to target: 2 middling RBs around 25, plus 2 or 3 upside RBs (for around 15-20 total) hoping to get 2/5 solid enough to start every week and not lose me games, then 2 WRs to choose from as a boom/bust WR3 , and one of the TEs I want for 5-10.

I ended up very happy with my mock that way.

Edit: for the curious, the above scenario yield RBs Monty-22, Ingram-21, RoJo-14, and Singletary+Dobbins for under 10

Edited by SadFaceHappy
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Every draft is different with auctions. The most important thing is to pay attention to how the draft is going. If players are being overspent on slightly early in the draft, then there will be steals later. It would be best to not spend much in the beginning in those drafts. If players are going under their average prices early, then there wont be any steals late in the draft. Best bet is to spend early in those drafts.

You should plan on building a team based on both scenarios and based on slightly above the average prices each player goes for. Always have a backup player that you like for each player that you might miss out on because you never know when some clown wants to overpay for a guy or if someone is just trying to bid you up. 

I personally will always pay for a great TE and build around that. Yes, if you pass on the top TEs early and draft a steal later, of course youll likely be a top 3 team. BUT if you don't get a steal at TE, you will basically be slightly above average the whole season, or desperately looking for trades for a TE. Id much rather have a balanced, strong starting team. I don't care about backups, QB's, kickers, or DEF, as long as I have the strong 6 first (WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, FLEX). I will spend every dollar for a strong 6. This is why i only do auction leagues too because I can build my team much easier this way.

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Its Covid times.

I have been avoiding stars and scrubs approach in Auctions. This is for 10 teamers.

 

In higher money leagues, when everyone is focused on RBs, sometimes Tier 1 WRs go cheap. I pair Tier 1 WRs with Mid Tier RBs and decent bench. Tier 1 QBs always seems to go at 27-35ish (Lamar and Mahomes). I got D Adams and Julio for 36 and 32$, I feel like they provide a better punch than just getting Kamara or Zeke for 65.

 

In lower leagues, where even WRs go for premium, I have been stacking RBs like crazy. Picking up a good Tier 2 RB like Josh Jacobs or Sanders and then filling up with 15-25ish RBs like M Gordon, Fournette, Gurley, Ingram, Mostert, Taylor, etc. I just need couple of them to click. Also could use some as trade bait as the season goes underway.

I just do not like spending 50-60$ for Tier 1 RBs.

 

 

 

 

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On 8/21/2020 at 5:09 PM, isuckatdfs said:

why would the jacobs owner not keep jacobs when he went for cheaper than 45 in 2019? Also in your league if you won kamara in 2017 for a few dollars how long do you get to keep him for that price? 

Woods is fine for 18 but not a screaming value imo. I do like woods to have a great 2020 for sure but i would want to keep someone for better.For instance if you could keep dk metcalf for 2 to 5 or woods for 18 i rather do dk metcalf. same if i had chark. 

 

I can't recall who had Jacobs last year but he must have had a better keeper this year.  You can only keep a player for one year, so that's a big element.  We find that it keeps everything fresh with recycling the players back into the pool.  I ended up keeping Woods for 18.

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Of the top backs I only came away with Jacobs.  I really wanted him and had to overpay but slightly disappointing.  We had CMC, Zeke, Saquon, and Kamara all go for 85+.  That is very high but the top backs are always going for more in our auctions.  

 

I was able to get DJ Moore for $22 and Mark Andrews for $2 which I thought were great buys.  Overall I have good depth but am lacking the real superstar player.  I don't hate my team but I don't love it.  

I have another auction coming up in a couple weeks in which I can keep Sanders for $30.  So I am telling myself I HAVE to leave that with another top back added.  If I spend around $100-105 on two should be great backs, then I have a lot of room to build the rest of my roster.  That was my original plan or the other day but it always seems to take a turn once I'm in draft.

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Personally i been fading the top 18 highest priced wr this year in auctions. Most I think I ever paid for a wr was 20 and that was in a 10 team auction with just 1 flex where i bought cmac drake miles and then i paid 20 for robert woods. I am gin with djax for week 1 as my wr2. I will prob be streaming wr2 all year but oh well. 

Also i need 2 for my 8pm 15 dollar superflex auction on yahoo so if you are interested pm me

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Here is a quick and simple Auction Exploit Tool I create for myself each year.  There are 2 main ways to use it, as a value indicator, but the simpler method is to use it as a Nomination Priority list.  If you want to maximize your auction dollars, you can target players who are ranked/projected highly, that are regularly under sold.  OR you can use it to exploit these values against your opponents (or AutoDraft Bots) to eliminate their possibility to obtain said values.

The premise is rather simple, you want to save as much money as possible and you want your opponents to waste as much of their money as possible, more specifically, on players you do NOT want.  These deviations tend to occur from highly projected players, that get nominated later in the draft when people are too broke or too cheap to pay full value.

So, for example, A.J. Brown has a projected price of $33, but only an average price of $17.40.  He has the highest differential in the entire player pool, across all positions.  In the event you did NOT want to draft/own AJ Brown this year, he would be my first nomination.  Doing this increases the likelihood that he goes closer to full price, eliminating potential value he offered pre-draft, and forces your opponents to pay more than they would have normally.

Each position is sorted by the highest (+)differential respective to their position.  I just grabbed the top 50 RBs, top 50 WRs, and cut QB/TE when they roughly zero'd out.

Name, Projected Value, Average Value, and Difference.
*These figures are directly from Yahoo's Draft Analysis, current as of today 8/29 ~5pm PST.

Auction.png

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