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2020 SURVIVOR POOL THREAD


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One of the pools I went out early in had this go down this week:

8 people left going into this week.

7 people picked LA Rams

1 person picked Pittsburgh

That person must have been over the moon after the Rams lost.  Now they are in an 8-way pot split.  I think the total pot was about 16 bills so that Pitt loss cost them quite a chunk of change.

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You do what you feel is best, but I have a rule to never touch ROAD DIVISION RIVALS unless Vegas shows the spread as 10+.   This has generally served me well.

Herbert should smoke this team but if its one coach who would lose to the Jets, it is Anthony Lynn.

You had me til MIA, now we can no longer be friends.

1 hour ago, hezagenius said:

That Chicago line moved for next week.  Are they baking in the JAX might not try too hard since they are in the #1 position for the draft now?

Moved from 7 to 7.5 is what I'm seeing

I'm deciding between Bears > Jags or Browns > Jets but it seems like Cleveland has some injuries on defense and on the o-line. Not sure which way I'm leaning yet but I do figure JAX will want to get that #1 pick 

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I have a tough call for the remaining 2 weeks.  My two best options are:

Week 16:  Bears (vs JAX), Week 17:  Saints (vs CAR)

Week 16:  Saints (vs MIN), Week 17:  Patriots (vs NYJ)

I was going with Saints/Patriots, but I just don't trust the Patriots... especially after seeing the Jets beat the Rams.  I think the Bears and Saints are both in the playoff hunt, so they will probably be the better play. 

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6 minutes ago, SuperSteve99 said:

I have a tough call for the remaining 2 weeks.  My two best options are:

Week 16:  Bears (vs JAX), Week 17:  Saints (vs CAR)

Week 16:  Saints (vs MIN), Week 17:  Patriots (vs NYJ)

I was going with Saints/Patriots, but I just don't trust the Patriots... especially after seeing the Jets beat the Rams.  I think the Bears and Saints are both in the playoff hunt, so they will probably be the better play. 

I'd go with Bears then Saints if it was me. 

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25 minutes ago, cbsholy said:

Moved from 7 to 7.5 is what I'm seeing

I'm deciding between Bears > Jags or Browns > Jets but it seems like Cleveland has some injuries on defense and on the o-line. Not sure which way I'm leaning yet but I do figure JAX will want to get that #1 pick 

Vegas insider showed the open at 3.5.  Not sure what day that was on.

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9 hours ago, matanp said:

Steelers destroyed me.  no words.

Same here, pivoted back and forward between PIT and TEN, as soon as the games started at 12 I knew I made the wrong choice. But looking back, PIT could win the division (I think), came off two losses, CIN hasn't won against the Steelers for I don't know how many years, third string QB. It's unbelievable. I should have known better to never pick a Monday, Sunday or Thursday night game and I tried to avoid divisional games (specially the away team). We started out with about 7600 people, $5.00 entry fee, pot of about 38k, I could have been one of the 130 that would have been left to compete.

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KC needs to win this week to get the 1 seed.  I still have them available in my pool.  I was planning on saving them until next week but they may just mail it in week 17 if they lock up the 1 seed this week.  My initial plan was HOU or CHI this week and KC next week.  But if I go KC this week, I'm pretty much looking at PHI v WAS next week.  Is it worth waiting to use KC next week vs LAC and hoping the don't bench their starters?

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I'm still deciding who to go with this week. 8 left in our pool, 1 picked TB earlier so 7 of us still to go. Knowing the other 6 teams will be picking either Chicago or the Browns (2 definitely with CHI and other 4 very likely to go with CLE), should I pivot to the Texans at home to the Bengals this week for the higher expected value? Or is that too risky and I should just follow the crowd?

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1 hour ago, hezagenius said:

KC needs to win this week to get the 1 seed.  I still have them available in my pool.  I was planning on saving them until next week but they may just mail it in week 17 if they lock up the 1 seed this week.  My initial plan was HOU or CHI this week and KC next week.  But if I go KC this week, I'm pretty much looking at PHI v WAS next week.  Is it worth waiting to use KC next week vs LAC and hoping the don't bench their starters?

That's a very tough decision but I think I would burn KC this week if I was in your spot. Would rather PHI or WAS than a resting KC

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1 hour ago, CookiesOmNom said:

I'm still deciding who to go with this week. 8 left in our pool, 1 picked TB earlier so 7 of us still to go. Knowing the other 6 teams will be picking either Chicago or the Browns (2 definitely with CHI and other 4 very likely to go with CLE), should I pivot to the Texans at home to the Bengals this week for the higher expected value? Or is that too risky and I should just follow the crowd?

On neutral fields, I'd like CHI better than HOU this week.  CHI is playing for a playoff berth and their chances got better when AZ lost.  HOU should beat CIN, and CIN is coming off their "superbowl" win last week so I expect a letdown from them.

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11 minutes ago, hezagenius said:

On neutral fields, I'd like CHI better than HOU this week.  CHI is playing for a playoff berth and their chances got better when AZ lost.  HOU should beat CIN, and CIN is coming off their "superbowl" win last week so I expect a letdown from them.

Very true, I forgot about that. Bears definitely have more to play for but their popularity makes me nervous choosing them. Away from home against Glennon who ran some tight games against the Browns and Vikings. Think I'm gonna go with the Texans tbh. All 3 options (including Cleveland) make me nervous this week so may as well go with the least popular option.

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1 hour ago, CookiesOmNom said:

That's a very tough decision but I think I would burn KC this week if I was in your spot. Would rather PHI or WAS than a resting KC

I looked up what I have let and if I play KC this week, my choices will be NYG home against DAL, MIN away against DET, or LV away against DEN.  That is ugly.  I'd actually lean MIN there I think.  I already burned PHI in that pool.

Or I play CHI or HOU and hope that either a) KC loses, or b) KC scores enough in 1 half to beat LAC.

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