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Brian Hill 2020 Outlook


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Now that I've posted a fun GIF, let's do something more serious.  I saw above (and/or in Gurley thread) the speculation that this might turn into a brutal RBBC with Gurley out.  Anything is possible,

Straight trash can....Covid/Injuries forced me to pick this joke up off waivers and play him. Dude is horrid.

Brian Hill is just not very good.

10 minutes ago, abachar said:

If I remember correctly he was a massive FAAB bust last season when Freeman went down


yeah I remember that, people were saying they were gonna shut down Freeman for the year and he only missed like 2 games and then reclaimed the starting role.

I’d be more worried about the Falcons schedule ROS. This week is a solid matchup, but then we’re looking at the Saints and Bucs/Chiefs in the playoffs. With how awful that Atlanta defense is and how poorly Ryan’s been playing he’s not exactly in an ideal situation to produce.

I’d say he’s easily worth the plunge if you need the depth and have bench room to spare but maybe temper expectations some.

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13 minutes ago, JDE said:


yeah I remember that, people were saying they were gonna shut down Freeman for the year and he only missed like 2 games and then reclaimed the starting role.

I’d be more worried about the Falcons schedule ROS. This week is a solid matchup, but then we’re looking at the Saints and Bucs/Chiefs in the playoffs. With how awful that Atlanta defense is and how poorly Ryan’s been playing he’s not exactly in an ideal situation to produce.

I’d say he’s easily worth the plunge if you need the depth and have bench room to spare but maybe temper expectations some.

Guys need W's now too. Some don't even care what comes after this weeks good matchup.

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Gurley owner. Just picked up Brian Hill. Lots of people talking him up. Can someone tell me why they brought Gurley in if Brian Hill is the back for Atlanta? Why did they need Gurley? Do they not trust Brian Hill? Why should we expect anything more than a part time role if that's what the team thinks of him? Thinking out loud. 

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1 minute ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Gurley owner. Just picked up Brian Hill. Lots of people talking him up. Can someone tell me why they brought Gurley in if Brian Hill is the back for Atlanta? Why did they need Gurley? Do they not trust Brian Hill? Why should we expect anything more than a part time role if that's what the team thinks of him? Thinking out loud. 

 

In Training Camp, it was said Hill has taken a major step forward this year. I don't think they expected it. 

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5 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Gurley owner. Just picked up Brian Hill. Lots of people talking him up. Can someone tell me why they brought Gurley in if Brian Hill is the back for Atlanta? Why did they need Gurley? Do they not trust Brian Hill? Why should we expect anything more than a part time role if that's what the team thinks of him? Thinking out loud. 

 

2 minutes ago, MKO3090 said:

In Training Camp, it was said Hill has taken a major step forward this year. I don't think they expected it. 

^^^This is accurate to what I recall seeing/reading. Mostly got in better shape, but also just had a better idea of what he was doing.

And he has looked marginally better too. He caught a lot of flak for letting owners down last year, and IF I remember correctly, was kind of a dick about 'not caring about fantasy' etc...but that was justified, given the sort of people that @ players on twitter for such stuff. I remember picking him up and it did not go well, but have to let it go and roll with possible volume and a solid match-up.

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1 hour ago, rabaak said:

I'm Thinking Ito gets 8-10 touches, with short yardage and TD work.  What do Atl fans on this site think?

 

You're asking in the Brian Hill link whether his now back-up is going to rain on his parade?  Methinks you need to take your question to the Ito Smith thread! ;)

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

You're asking in the Brian Hill link whether his now back-up is going to rain on his parade?  Methinks you need to take your question to the Ito Smith thread! ;)

The question has a definite impact on Brian Hill. 

I only watched one Atl game this year against the Vikings.

Ito only got a few carries and receptions in that game. But he looked like he was way more efficient with his touches than Brian Hill was. 

So, will Brian Hill really be the only benefactor of Gurley being out?

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34 minutes ago, rabaak said:

The question has a definite impact on Brian Hill. 

I only watched one Atl game this year against the Vikings.

Ito only got a few carries and receptions in that game. But he looked like he was way more efficient with his touches than Brian Hill was. 

So, will Brian Hill really be the only benefactor of Gurley being out?

I agree. As I said earlier above, I think it’s going to be a RBBC. But if you’re asking in the Hill thread for validation of that, you’re only going to be met with “Hill szn!” replies for the most part as people reading this thread likely have a vested interest. You’d get probably more constructive insight if you posted in the Ito thread. 

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Unless I’ve missed something or something drastically changed during the season for the Falcons running back depth chart,  I’m not sure that I’ve seen anything that could lead us to believe that this will be a RBBC.

This is Hill’s job at least for this week....IMO lol

Solid #2 with upside.

 

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1 hour ago, rabaak said:

The question has a definite impact on Brian Hill. 

I only watched one Atl game this year against the Vikings.

Ito only got a few carries and receptions in that game. But he looked like he was way more efficient with his touches than Brian Hill was. 

So, will Brian Hill really be the only benefactor of Gurley being out?


No one knows man. We’re all just gambling here. Hill has been the guy to spell Gurley all year and is the safest bet for touches. I’m sure Ito will get some work but we’re banking on Hill getting the bulk of the work and producing against a subpar defense. 

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2 hours ago, CooL said:

... I think it’s going to be a RBBC. ...

 

The term "RBBC" is so open to interpretation that, unless defined specifically, it's essentially meaningless.

Almost no teams use a lone or "lead" back these days, defined as 80% or more of the touches.  McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott used to be one, Cook some weeks (with other weeks with a lot of Mattison too), Henry obviously - but there aren't many and they tend to be the absolutely elite players.  If anything other than that sort of usage is an "RBBC," then of course this is going to be an RBBC.  I gave what I think is a pretty optimistic analysis but I don't think Hill is going to get 85% to 90% of the work.  

But Gurley has been very effective in fantasy as the top back in an "RBBC."  Here are Gurley's snap counts this season by percentage: 37%, 46%, five games in the 50s, 62%, 64%, 71%.   His last three games were 51%, 62%, and 37%.  Now, snap counts alone can be misleading so let's look at Gurley's percentage of the RB carries in the last three games: 63%, 68%, 61%.  For the season, Gurley has 68% of RB carries.  How about targets?  They are too few to really analyze game by game but Gurley has 24, Hill 20, Ito Smith 10, Keith Smith 7.  Gurley has 39% of RB targets.  Is that "RBBC?"  Sure, it is.  (And one could argue the RBBC has developed against Gurley because Hill has been earning more work lately.)  

But Gurley's been good for fantasy, even leading the "RBBC."  57 total yards, 2 catches, and a TD in Week 1.  82 total yards, 1 catch, a TD in Week 3.  16/57/2 (adding one catch) on the ground Week 4.  Week 5: 14/121/1 and 4/29 through the air.  Through Weeks 7 from 9 he rattled off four total TDs.  His "dud" was 21-for-61.  Give me that kind of "RBBC" production off the waiver wire any day.

So, sure, Ito Smith (who has 13 carries all season) could cut into Hill's workload.  He's a good pass catcher particularly.  I don't think Atlanta will make Hill a 85% or 90% touches guy.  But the point of my post was that he didn't need that kind of work to be a back-end RB2 type with upside for more.  Nor do I think this will turn into a brutal, value-killing 45/35/20 type split with Ollison in the role of the third wheel.  

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2 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

But Gurley has been very effective in fantasy as the top back in an "RBBC."  
 

(snip)

Nor do I think this will turn into a brutal, value-killing 45/35/20 type split with Ollison in the role of the third wheel.  

1. Hill has nowhere near the talent of Gurley.

2. How do you know that it won’t be a three headed monster? Ito Smith has few touches this year because he’s third string playing behind a former All Pro. There would be no reason to think he would sniff the field much with a healthy Gurley. I think he sees the field more than Hill owners would like. 

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7 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

 

The term "RBBC" is so open to interpretation that, unless defined specifically, it's essentially meaningless.

Almost no teams use a lone or "lead" back these days, defined as 80% or more of the touches.  McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott used to be one, Cook some weeks (with other weeks with a lot of Mattison too), Henry obviously - but there aren't many and they tend to be the absolutely elite players.  If anything other than that sort of usage is an "RBBC," then of course this is going to be an RBBC.  I gave what I think is a pretty optimistic analysis but I don't think Hill is going to get 85% to 90% of the work.  

But Gurley has been very effective in fantasy as the top back in an "RBBC."  Here are Gurley's snap counts this season by percentage: 37%, 46%, five games in the 50s, 62%, 64%, 71%.   His last three games were 51%, 62%, and 37%.  Now, snap counts alone can be misleading so let's look at Gurley's percentage of the RB carries in the last three games: 63%, 68%, 61%.  For the season, Gurley has 68% of RB carries.  How about targets?  They are too few to really analyze game by game but Gurley has 24, Hill 20, Ito Smith 10, Keith Smith 7.  Gurley has 39% of RB targets.  Is that "RBBC?"  Sure, it is.  (And one could argue the RBBC has developed against Gurley because Hill has been earning more work lately.)  

But Gurley's been good for fantasy, even leading the "RBBC."  57 total yards, 2 catches, and a TD in Week 1.  82 total yards, 1 catch, a TD in Week 3.  16/57/2 (adding one catch) on the ground Week 4.  Week 5: 14/121/1 and 4/29 through the air.  Through Weeks 7 from 9 he rattled off four total TDs.  His "dud" was 21-for-61.  Give me that kind of "RBBC" production off the waiver wire any day.

So, sure, Ito Smith (who has 13 carries all season) could cut into Hill's workload.  He's a good pass catcher particularly.  I don't think Atlanta will make Hill a 85% or 90% touches guy.  But the point of my post was that he didn't need that kind of work to be a back-end RB2 type with upside for more.  Nor do I think this will turn into a brutal, value-killing 45/35/20 type split with Ollison in the role of the third wheel.  

Agreed. My only concern (that didn’t exist until reading these threads and other similar ones) is that Ito or Ollison may be the primary goal-line RB. If this were to happen it would be very problematic for Hill, as that was the driver of a majority of Gurley’s value.

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None of us know what will happen but we have seen teams gash the Raiders on the ground.

 

The #2 back who has shown well on occasion now faces a bad D in a game that could be a shoot out. No reason to project a 55/45 or 60/40 split with Ito etc. yet.

 

Plenty of time for the Negative Nancy and Debbie Downers to tell us so post game. 

 

He is in the CEH (due to matchup), Drake, Gus Edward's range this week imo.

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7 hours ago, rabaak said:

I'm Thinking Ito gets 8-10 touches, with short yardage and TD work.  What do Atl fans on this site think?

 

Ollison had like 4 TDs in a 6 game stretch on VERY limited carries last year. Meaning I'd be surprised if he's not the GL back. I think you'd give Hill a floor/ceiling of like 7/18, with him likely only ending up being a good start if he punches one in. 

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