Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Seriously wtf am I supposed to do. Team is good, but I just get ******** rolled up on by spike weeks and players in good spots shitting the bed (Rivers, AROB etc . . . ) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Gohawks 10,843 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said: Seriously wtf am I supposed to do. Team is good, but I just get ******** rolled up on by spike weeks and players in good spots shitting the bed (Rivers, AROB etc . . . ) 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Gohawks said: Elaborate Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dsrich 992 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said: Seriously wtf am I supposed to do. Team is good, but I just get ******** rolled up on by spike weeks and players in good spots shitting the bed (Rivers, AROB etc . . . ) What are we looking at here? 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Just now, dsrich said: What are we looking at here? An 0-2 start Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tghetty 355 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Starting J Robinson over hines ketchup would be excellent start for one. A rob will have better days. Hang in there Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, Tghetty said: Starting J Robinson over hines ketchup would be excellent start for one. A rob will have better days. Hang in there Hindsight bias is 20 20 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jkendrick2 114 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said: Seriously wtf am I supposed to do. Team is good, but I just get ******** rolled up on by spike weeks and players in good spots shitting the bed (Rivers, AROB etc . . . ) I would start with playing Jrob next week against Miami. Maybe in place of Hines. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Just now, jkendrick2 said: I would start with playing Jrob next week against Miami. Maybe in place of Hines. Again. Hindsight 20 20. J Rob will be in there, but pretty hard to see this coming when the jags are +8.5 against the Colts and Titans. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
oliminator123 3,451 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Just now, Sizzlebshu said: Again. Hindsight 20 20. J Rob will be in there, but pretty hard to see this coming when the jags are +8.5 against the Colts and Titans. Betting lines and fantasy are two separate things. Keep them that way. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Just now, oliminator123 said: Betting lines and fantasy are two separate things. Keep them that way. And yet they are correlated. Ignoring vegas lines when tiebreaking is foolish.I expected the games to be pass heavy and non-competitive meaning more work for Thompson, which did not happen. Robinson had 1 target week 1 so I don't think that was a wrong conclusion to draw. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I am in good company. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jkendrick2 114 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said: Again. Hindsight 20 20. J Rob will be in there, but pretty hard to see this coming when the jags are +8.5 against the Colts and Titans. I agree. I didn't start him this week either but I more then likely will have him in my flex. I would also try to upgrade your qb position. Maybe Minshew or Tannehill are on your waiver wire Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, jkendrick2 said: I agree. I didn't start him this week either but I more then likely will have him in my flex. I would also try to upgrade your qb position. Maybe Minshew or Tannehill are on your waiver wire Minshew is (as well as Goff), but horrible luck has me starting the wrong one each week (went with goff last week and rivers this week because he also has the jets next week after another very winnable matchup versus the vikes swiss cheese pass D) I get the Colts may run it out on the jets, but the jets are pass funnelk who every QB will have success on. Literally can't ask for a better matchup Edited September 21, 2020 by Sizzlebshu Quote Link to post Share on other sites
oliminator123 3,451 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said: And yet they are correlated. Ignoring vegas lines when tiebreaking is foolish.I expected the games to be pass heavy and non-competitive meaning more work for Thompson, which did not happen. Robinson had 1 target week 1 so I don't think that was a wrong conclusion to draw. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I am in good company. I can see looking at the O/U's but scoring lines/points is useless. What difference does it make if Jax is +8.5? It could be 50-40 final score - what good was that point differential? Nothing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tghetty 355 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said: Hindsight bias is 20 20 In Hine-sight huh? 😂 I never liked him, he will have his good games with rivers but Robinson Ingram are your guys in front of him. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, oliminator123 said: I can see looking at the O/U's but scoring lines/points is useless. What difference does it make if Jax is +8.5? It could be 50-40 final score - what good was that point differential? Nothing. You’re kidding right? There’s literally objective data showing that rbs tend to do better when big favorites are playing at home. Likewise, the data also shows rbs for big dogs tend to do worse. Why? Teams run the ball less when they are losing because they want to extend the game to catch up. The differential is factored into the implied total, which is also worth looking at. Notwithstanding that, the total for the game was 42.5 meaning the jaguars had an implied total of about 17 points Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DezedandConfused 3,035 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 The quality of this forum is going to ****, I just saw someone call Henry a low-end RB2 lol I'm done. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
oliminator123 3,451 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said: You’re kidding right? There’s literally objective data showing that rbs tend to do better when big favorites are playing at home. Likewise, the data also shows rbs for big dogs tend to do worse. Why? Teams run the ball less when they are losing because they want to extend the game to catch up. The differential is factored into the implied total, which is also worth looking at. Notwithstanding that, the total for the game was 42.5 meaning the jaguars had an implied total of about 17 points Yes - and we saw what happened. JRob did great, Jax scored 30 points, your whole claim got blown out of the water. I am all for analysis, but the "objective data" you're speaking to sounds worthless. Fantasy can't be predicted based off of past experiences. You go by skilled players and matchups. Nobody is drafting a running back based off of point spread matchups season long home versus away - that's nonsensical. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, oliminator123 said: Yes - and we saw what happened. JRob did great, Jax scored 30 points, your whole claim got blown out of the water. I am all for analysis, but the "objective data" you're speaking to sounds worthless. Fantasy can't be predicted based off of past experiences. You go by skilled players and matchups. Nobody is drafting a running back based off of point spread matchups season long home versus away - that's nonsensical. Idk how to respond to this. It happened therefore we should ignore all indicator to the contrary. Its the nfl and **** happens. Process > Result Quote Link to post Share on other sites
oliminator123 3,451 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said: Idk how to respond to this. It happened therefore we should ignore all indicator to the contrary. Its the nfl and **** happens. Process > Result You do your way, I'll do mine. But I'm not the one bitching in the vent and rant thread. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 50 minutes ago, oliminator123 said: Yes - and we saw what happened. JRob did great, Jax scored 30 points, your whole claim got blown out of the water. I am all for analysis, but the "objective data" you're speaking to sounds worthless. Fantasy can't be predicted based off of past experiences. You go by skilled players and matchups. Nobody is drafting a running back based off of point spread matchups season long home versus away - that's nonsensical. Again, idk what to tell you. You clearly don't play DFS (which is effectively what making a lineup decision is) with any success otherwise you would know this. The only thing I can say is go look at the data and see for yourself that it does in fact have statistical significance. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
atdharris 288 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 (edited) Yesterday just was not my day. Brady had two TDs dropped and then Leonard Fournette failed to get in after catching a pass. Then Zeke had his TD taken away and Dak ran it in. And my opponent, who has a weak team, had Cam Newton, who put up 36 points. And he picked up Jonnu Smith Sunday morning to replace inactive Jack Doyle, who proceeded to score 22 points. I lost by 10. Just brutal luck. Oh, and the Packers kept DeVante Adams out as a "precaution." Edited September 21, 2020 by atdharris Quote Link to post Share on other sites
yossarian 3,590 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Sizzlebshu said: Minshew is (as well as Goff), but horrible luck has me starting the wrong one each week (went with goff last week and rivers this week because he also has the jets next week after another very winnable matchup versus the vikes swiss cheese pass D) I get the Colts may run it out on the jets, but the jets are pass funnelk who every QB will have success on. Literally can't ask for a better matchup i think i might like minshew better than goff or rivers. Rivers is the master of the 34-for-45 300 yard, 1 td game and Goff's just...i don't like Goff--I can't ever figure out when his good games are going to happen so I've just stayed away from him. Take a look at Minshew's upcoming schedule. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sizzlebshu 99 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 1 minute ago, yossarian said: i think i might like minshew better than goff or rivers. Rivers is the master of the 34-for-45 300 yard, 1 td game and Goff's just...i don't like Goff--I can't ever figure out when his good games are going to happen so I've just stayed away from him. Take a look at Minshew's upcoming schedule. Yeah I get its easy looking (so is goff's for what its worth). I was just mainly thinking for this week. Rivers should have had a really good day, but Hilton dropped a 44 yd TD put right on his hands. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
leffe186 662 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, atdharris said: Yesterday just was not my day. Brady had two TDs dropped and then Leonard Fournette failed to get in after catching a pass. Then Zeke had his TD taken away and Dak ran it in. And my opponent, who has a weak team, had Cam Newton, who put up 36 points. And he picked up Jonnu Smith Sunday morning to replace inactive Jack Doyle, who proceeded to score 22 points. I lost by 10. Just brutal luck. Oh, and the Packers kept DeVante Adams out as a "precaution." Man, I hate when the oppo is forced to make a move and the new guy blows up. Feels extra sucky. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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