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2020 Buy Low/Sell High Thread


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I'm a bit leery of trying to pull off a twofer sell high with the COVID nonsense. Starting to feel depth is more valuable than studs this year.

This. Others seem to not to get it but it’s not our duty to explain. If I’m being told Ekeler is a sell high and Corey Davis is a buy low, then this thread is bonkers. That’s my perspective. 

You are my target market.

7 hours ago, next big thing cp84 said:

Thoughts about Derrick Henry being a buy low target? 

He is the RB24 in 0.5 ppr right now on 59 touches (56 carries, 3 catches). He has the most rushing attempts without a TD through weeks 1-2 since 1977. He is due for a few games with a touchdown or two. He has probably the most guaranteed volume in the league, and that is a hot commodity in the NFL today. Averaging 3.74 and 3.36 YPC in his first two games.

 

Fun stat regarding a potential buy low on him.

In the months of September and October he has 3.8 and 3.9 YPC over his career, (245 and 174 career carries in those months).

In the months of November and December/January, he turns into King Henry, averaging 5.9 and 5.3 YPC over his career, (145 and 296). 

 

Derrick Henry's owners are quite possibly 0-2 in your league, and might feel the need to change something... and I don't think he will go much lower than he is right now.

Interesting to hear people's thought about this

 

(Oh and he plays the Minnesota Vikings this week that just lost Anthony Barr for the season this last week, so that blow up multi touchdown game might be Sunday)

Another fun stat regarding a potential buy low:

 

 

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4 minutes ago, mjb said:

CMC - low as it will go, unless we find out they're going to shut him down after 0-6.

 

Carson for CMC, too much or too little?

Trading away and trading for him depend on a lot of things, two most important ones being

-Team depth, and your ability to be without that production (either that you are giving up to get him or RB1 production he gave you) for 4 weeks and still have a shot at the playoffs

-Your current record. Realistically you should probably only trade for him if you have a 2-0 record or are in a 10 team league where most teams have the depth to wait out 4 weeks without going 0-4. 

 

For example, I am a CMC owner who is 2-0 and in first place in my 10 teamer (cool story, I know). So I have next to zero reason trading CMC, even if in 3 weeks I am 2-3. 

 

However if you feel confident in your depth to ride out CMC on your bench or in the IR spot for 4 weeks, I don't know if there is going to be a bigger chance to take at winning your league than trading for CMC. Currently on the trade market, he is going for about the Chris Carson range (think Miles Sanders, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler area of RBs). If you have a Chris Carson, who's ADP was about the RB15ish range, he is probably your RB2. And you have him paired with maybe a Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, or Josh Jacobs type of back. 

If you hit on a waiver pickup like James Robinson, Jerrick McKinnon, Josh Kelley, Mike Davis, Henderson, or spent a late pick on a serviceable RB3 like Singletary, Antonio Gibson, Zack Moss, etc let them occupy that RB2 spot that Carson is going to vacate for 4 weeks, then replace them with CMC, who will hopefully go win you a league title. 

 

If your roster can handle it, risk it and trade your RB2 if they are a Carson or Chubb type of value and try to land CMC. You'll likely only get him if the CMC owner is desperate (maybe check back next week if they are 0-3), and it certainly can come with some risks... but if it works out you have a pair of stud RB1's to lead you into the playoffs.  

 

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3 minutes ago, next big thing cp84 said:

Trading away and trading for him depend on a lot of things, two most important ones being

-Team depth, and your ability to be without that production (either that you are giving up to get him or RB1 production he gave you) for 4 weeks and still have a shot at the playoffs

-Your current record. Realistically you should probably only trade for him if you have a 2-0 record or are in a 10 team league where most teams have the depth to wait out 4 weeks without going 0-4. 

 

For example, I am a CMC owner who is 2-0 and in first place in my 10 teamer (cool story, I know). So I have next to zero reason trading CMC, even if in 3 weeks I am 2-3. 

 

However if you feel confident in your depth to ride out CMC on your bench or in the IR spot for 4 weeks, I don't know if there is going to be a bigger chance to take at winning your league than trading for CMC. Currently on the trade market, he is going for about the Chris Carson range (think Miles Sanders, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler area of RBs). If you have a Chris Carson, who's ADP was about the RB15ish range, he is probably your RB2. And you have him paired with maybe a Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, or Josh Jacobs type of back. 

If you hit on a waiver pickup like James Robinson, Jerrick McKinnon, Josh Kelley, Mike Davis, Henderson, or spent a late pick on a serviceable RB3 like Singletary, Antonio Gibson, Zack Moss, etc let them occupy that RB2 spot that Carson is going to vacate for 4 weeks, then replace them with CMC, who will hopefully go win you a league title. 

 

If your roster can handle it, risk it and trade your RB2 if they are a Carson or Chubb type of value and try to land CMC. You'll likely only get him if the CMC owner is desperate (maybe check back next week if they are 0-3), and it certainly can come with some risks... but if it works out you have a pair of stud RB1's to lead you into the playoffs.  

 

I would be trading away CMC.  I'm thin at RB of course, drafted Kelly, got Henderson in a trade, James White was a draft pick.  I should have been more clear.  A concern is CMC misses 4-6 and they sit him.... forever haha.  Kind of torn.  Thanks for the reply.

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2 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I can get that for chubb?  That would get vetoed in my league but congrats bro

Carson/Diggs for Chubb - Stealing, but well done.

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2 minutes ago, mjb said:

I would be trading away CMC.  I'm thin at RB of course, drafted Kelly, got Henderson in a trade, James White was a draft pick.  I should have been more clear.  A concern is CMC misses 4-6 and they sit him.... forever haha.  Kind of torn.  Thanks for the reply.

Let's say he misses the max time, 6 weeks, which considering there are reports he played multiple snaps on this sprain and average recovery time of RBs with a high ankle sprain over the last 9 seasons has been 3.7 weeks (source  per @mjb), I don't think that'll be the case.

Anyway, for safety he misses 6 weeks. Again, worst case scenario, the Panthers are 0-8. Even then, are you really going to shut down the face of your franchise for an entire half of the season... really?

The Panthers are allowed to have just over 5,000 fans in accordance with NC law starting week 4. Do you think they even get that in the 4 remaining home games after our worst case scenario happens, he comes off IR week 8 and they shut him down for the season? Doubtful.

 

And that's not to mention the competitive side to return that CMC has shown... he won't be getting shut down. You can book that. 

 

Only sell CMC if you are desperate, or really have a gut feeling telling you ya should, after all it is your team.

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8 minutes ago, next big thing cp84 said:

Let's say he misses the max time, 6 weeks, which considering there are reports he played multiple snaps on this sprain and average recovery time of RBs with a high ankle sprain over the last 9 seasons has been 3.7 weeks (source  per @mjb), I don't think that'll be the case.

Anyway, for safety he misses 6 weeks. Again, worst case scenario, the Panthers are 0-8. Even then, are you really going to shut down the face of your franchise for an entire half of the season... really?

The Panthers are allowed to have just over 5,000 fans in accordance with NC law starting week 4. Do you think they even get that in the 4 remaining home games after our worst case scenario happens, he comes off IR week 8 and they shut him down for the season? Doubtful.

 

And that's not to mention the competitive side to return that CMC has shown... he won't be getting shut down. You can book that. 

 

Only sell CMC if you are desperate, or really have a gut feeling telling you ya should, after all it is your team.

We actually xant book that, im usinf the saquon high ainkle sprain narrative to write my cmc2020 book, this wont end well

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9 hours ago, next big thing cp84 said:

Let's say he misses the max time, 6 weeks, which considering there are reports he played multiple snaps on this sprain and average recovery time of RBs with a high ankle sprain over the last 9 seasons has been 3.7 weeks (source  per @mjb), I don't think that'll be the case.

Anyway, for safety he misses 6 weeks. Again, worst case scenario, the Panthers are 0-8. Even then, are you really going to shut down the face of your franchise for an entire half of the season... really?

The Panthers are allowed to have just over 5,000 fans in accordance with NC law starting week 4. Do you think they even get that in the 4 remaining home games after our worst case scenario happens, he comes off IR week 8 and they shut him down for the season? Doubtful.

 

And that's not to mention the competitive side to return that CMC has shown... he won't be getting shut down. You can book that. 

 

Only sell CMC if you are desperate, or really have a gut feeling telling you ya should, after all it is your team.

Yeah people have worried about this before but players don't get shut down because their team sucks. There's always the 'tanking theory' but really players and coaches want to win games even if they're having an awful season. And it's a business where quality of product matters so the NFL would really frown upon that. 

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12 hours ago, mjb said:

CMC - low as it will go, unless we find out they're going to shut him down after 0-6.

 

Carson for CMC, too much or too little?

That's about right. If I wasn't 0-2 I'd be doing everything I could to grab CMC because odds are they can't afford 4-6 weeks without him with how thin RB is this year. 

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12 hours ago, next big thing cp84 said:

Another fun stat regarding a potential buy low:

 

 

This is my concern. I understand the argument for positive regression on the TDs, but he's looked atrocious this year, and has been horribly inefficient. 

One argument is positive regression, the other is he's struggling because teams have now had a full year to figure out how to contain him, and Tennessee will continue to take what's given (particularly since it's working). 

He's still definitely a buy low candidate, but I wouldn't give up TOO much to get him. 

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2 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

That's about right. If I wasn't 0-2 I'd be doing everything I could to grab CMC because odds are they can't afford 4-6 weeks without him with how thin RB is this year. 

My only concern Panthers 0-7 when he’s ready... Does he play? Not winning anything.

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On 9/22/2020 at 5:23 PM, Dirty Little Birdie said:

anyone buy/sell Mixon lately? wondering what he's been going for. 

I definitely wouldn't sell. He'd be considered a buy low. Burrow looks good, the offense should continue to gel, I'd expect Mixon to get his. 

On 9/23/2020 at 4:02 AM, nk2333 said:

Is Fournette a  buy low?  Or a sell high.  I personally feel like he takes over the backfield as a backend RB1/ high end RB2 with TD upside in this offense.  

He's a buy lowish. Many see the writing on the wall - that he's the lead guy there and will produce RB1 numbers the rest of the way. In that case you're gonna have to pay a lot for him. But in any league where the owner doesn't feel that way, absolutely. 

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Not a super flashy target but Moss is a really good but low for me. Hasn't jumped off the page yet, and now he's banged up. I'd be shocked if he wasn't the clear 1A on this team by year's end, and this is a very good offense. Shouldn't take too much to acquire him. 

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On 9/24/2020 at 10:34 AM, BGDDYKWL said:

I definitely wouldn't sell. He'd be considered a buy low. Burrow looks good, the offense should continue to gel, I'd expect Mixon to get his. 

He's a buy lowish. Many see the writing on the wall - that he's the lead guy there and will produce RB1 numbers the rest of the way. In that case you're gonna have to pay a lot for him. But in any league where the owner doesn't feel that way, absolutely. 

Much cheaper this week. Can probably get a bargain waiting a couple of more weeks. But still might be overpaying for the name rather than the flex-quality ceiling they provide.

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I'd check on AJ Green's value and if the owner is willing to ship him for pennies pull the trigger. I think there is a chance he's washed and will produce a middling WR3 type season(nothing to get excited about) but it's also possible he's working his way back into game shape and could have a big 2nd half. Boyd and Higgins are good, but Higgins is a rook so he may not be ready to displace AJ quite yet. 

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2 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Gurley is a sell high this week. Atlanta doesn't know how to use him and he's used very little in the passing game.

Yeah I'm confused at people saying he's a buy when Brian Hill just had 9/58/1 and 1/22.  And you gotta think TG is breaking down at some point, right?  

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