2020 Buy Low/Sell High Thread

[ajs723 3,320]

44 minutes ago, Magoo said:

The guy with the highest ADOT on the team is going to be just a red zone target?  That makes zero sense to me. He's got both covered.  That makes him even more valuable and another reason Doyle isn't a threat and may be worthless as a fantasy player moving forward.

He's averaging under 4 targets per game on the year, with Doyle hurt or limited for most of that. My point isn't that Doyle is going to come in and be a superstar, it's that Cox is never going to see more than about 3 targets per game. He's a fine dart throw, but if you can sell him as the next big thing right now, that's the perfect sell high.

[Magoo 1,517]

12 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

He's averaging under 4 targets per game on the year, with Doyle hurt or limited for most of that. My point isn't that Doyle is going to come in and be a superstar, it's that Cox is never going to see more than about 3 targets per game. He's a fine dart throw, but if you can sell him as the next big thing right now, that's the perfect sell high.

I get your point about about low targets and certainly - my point about game flow and target share vis a vis the whole team aside - through two games they've been low.

But how can you be so sure about the low targets moving forward?  If you are ignoring target share % as it relates to the significance of total targets, then you'd have to say the same concern about 3-5 targets applies to Pittman, Hilton and Pascal as well.   Otherwise you are overly abstracting other completely relevant data.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Magoo

[ajs723 3,320]

Just now, Magoo said:

I get your point about about low targets and certainly - my point about game flow and target share vis a vis the whole team aside - through two games they've been low.

But how can you be so sure about the low targets moving forward?  If you are ignoring target share % as it relates to the significance of total targets, then you'd have to say the same concern about 3-5 targets applies to Pittman, Hilton and Pascal as well.   Otherwise you are overly abstracting other completely relevant data.

Well yeah, I wouldn't be buying any of the pass catchers in this offense.  They are a run first team that will spread the targets out.

This isn't a Gesicki or Jonnu Smith situation where the guy may be a heavily featured weapon. He's closer to Darren Fells or Tyler Kroft. Red zone appeal and limited volume. In my opinion. 

 

[yanksman 3,781]

I like Jimmy Graham better than MAC especially with BDN at QB and Tarik out for the year with an ACL.

[Magoo 1,517]

3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Well yeah, I wouldn't be buying any of the pass catchers in this offense.  They are a run first team that will spread the targets out.

This isn't a Gesicki or Jonnu Smith situation where the guy may be a heavily featured weapon. He's closer to Darren Fells or Tyler Kroft. Red zone appeal and limited volume. In my opinion. 

 

Fair enough and good point I need to rethink my Pittman love now lol.

[No1Statistican 16]

Buy low: Diontae Johnson wr3 price, David Johnson low rb2 price, Adam Thielen wr2 price, Josh Jacobs high rb2 price

Sell high: James Conner rb1 price

Edited September 28, 2020 by No1Statistican

[mulhollandvelvet 997]

Shouldn't we be waiting for Diontae's status before buying? I am worried if he misses a couple games James Washington takes his role. I think if you can sell Allen Robinson right now would be a good time. He had a big game and people are excited about Foles. 

[Dirty Little Birdie 1,124]

has anyone bought low on Drake or Mixon?? if so, what did you send for them? 

[mulhollandvelvet 997]

1 minute ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

has anyone bought low on Drake or Mixon?? if so, what did you send for them? 

I got offered Mixon and Amari Cooper for Miles Sanders and Gallup. I don't really think that is buying all that low though. 

[cgu112 218]

1 hour ago, No1Statistican said:

Buy low: Diontae Johnson wr3 price, David Johnson low rb2 price, Adam Thielen wr2 price, Josh Jacobs high rb2 price

Sell high: James Conner rb1 price

Who r u going to sell james conner for?  His injury risk is baked into his value so you wont get a stud back (certainly not a rb).  And when he plays he's a top 12 rb (probably higher).  With how few good rbs there are right now, selling one with conners situation (workload and team) would be pretty dumb. 

[FinsUp24 519]

Buy low on basically all the fantasy relevant Texans. David Johnson in particular. Schedule really opens up now. 

[Magoo 1,517]

2 hours ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

Shouldn't we be waiting for Diontae's status before buying? I am worried if he misses a couple games James Washington takes his role. I think if you can sell Allen Robinson right now would be a good time. He had a big game and people are excited about Foles. 

I wouldn't sell ARob for almost anything.  He's posted WR1 number multiple years with some of the worst quarterbacks of the last decade.  Let that fully sink in.

[nk2333 9]

2 hours ago, Magoo said:

I wouldn't sell ARob for almost anything.  He's posted WR1 number multiple years with some of the worst quarterbacks of the last decade.  Let that fully sink in.

I would, for the right offer.  Seems like Graham is getting the red zone looks.  That TD didn't come until late in the 4th.  The Bears will have to be in some shootout games for robinson to post every week wr1 numbers and with that D, I don't see it happening that often.  As a Robinson owner, I hope i'm wrong. 

Edited September 28, 2020 by nk2333

[SharkSwimmer 4,890]

Sell high on Josh Allen.

[harck 478]

Feel like Amari Cooper is a sell high. The cowboys are so loaded on offensive weapons that I think his share of targets starts to trend down (not to mention every falcons/seahawks game is a shootout). Also, did anyone else feel like he got injured in that Seahawks game but they sent him out in the second half as just a decoy? He was sidelined on half of the second half drives, and the other half he was just walking his routes.

Love his targets, love that he has put consistent 17-18 pts per game without a TD in PPR, but worried his targets dry up to the other 3 talented guys and there's some injury under the surface brewing here.

Edited September 28, 2020 by harck

[jmcampbe11 754]

3 hours ago, Magoo said:

I wouldn't sell ARob for almost anything.  He's posted WR1 number multiple years with some of the worst quarterbacks of the last decade.  Let that fully sink in.

 

I wouldn't be looking to sell A-Rob either. I'm looking at this week's performance as more of him turning the corner than a one and done. 

[jmcampbe11 754]

1 minute ago, harck said:

Feel like Amari Cooper is a sell high. The cowboys are so loaded on offensive weapons that I think his share of targets starts to trend down (not to mention every falcons/seahawks game is a shootout). Also, did anyone else feel like he got injured in that Seahawks game but they sent him out in the second half as just a decoy? He was sidelined on half of the second half drives, and the other half he was just walking his routes.

Love his targets, love that he has put consistent 17-18 pts per game without a TD in PPR, but worried his targets dry up to the other 3 talented guys and there's some injury under the surface brewing here.

 

Makes sense. Lots of mouths to feed on that team. 

[jmcampbe11 754]

5 hours ago, No1Statistican said:

Buy low: Diontae Johnson wr3 price, David Johnson low rb2 price, Adam Thielen wr2 price, Josh Jacobs high rb2 price

Sell high: James Conner rb1 price

 

I'm wrestling with what Johnson actually is. Is week 1 or 2 more indicative of what to expect? 

As for Conner, what comparable RB1s do you think you might be able to trade him for? 

[jmcampbe11 754]

5 hours ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

Shouldn't we be waiting for Diontae's status before buying? I am worried if he misses a couple games James Washington takes his role. I think if you can sell Allen Robinson right now would be a good time. He had a big game and people are excited about Foles. 

 

...but he's been a consistently good receiver throughout his career and Foles is most definitely a QB upgrade. 

[jmcampbe11 754]

5 hours ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

has anyone bought low on Drake or Mixon?? if so, what did you send for them? 

 

Kind of. Drake was drafted the pick before T. Hill in my league so they were kind of equal in value. And I was able to trade Hill / J.White for Drake / J-Rob...and I think J-Rob is a pretty big upgrade over White. 

[harck 478]

Yeah my favorite ROS receivers right now are Lockett and Robinson. Very jealous of the peeps that drafted them. Chicago is built around Robinson and Foles will feed him. Lockett is benefiting from the Seahawks shift to pass first and is probably a 20 point floor at this point. If I drafted these guys, I wouldn't trade them for anything outside of super super lopsided deals, particularly ppr leagues.

Edited September 28, 2020 by harck

[leffe186 662]

5 hours ago, cgu112 said:

Who r u going to sell james conner for?  His injury risk is baked into his value so you wont get a stud back (certainly not a rb).  And when he plays he's a top 12 rb (probably higher).  With how few good rbs there are right now, selling one with conners situation (workload and team) would be pretty dumb. 

 

Yeah, I'm having an internal battle over this one atm. The DJ Moore owner nearly bit on a straight swap this week (all my WRs are dead) and I'm pretty glad he didn't. Just can't make up my mind what to do with Conner.

[zen25 96]

wow man. That's a crazy good offer.

[leffe186 662]

2 minutes ago, Heizz said:

I know his next 3 games are gravy, but is anyone on board with James Robinson as a sell high?

 

I was just offered Michael Thomas, and am having a hard time not smashing the accept.

 

It's situational I think. I kept him in one league and sold him in the other. It's selling high in a sense, but I don't see it dropping off any time soon.

[Dr. JJ 8]

3 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

I'm wrestling with what Johnson actually is. Is week 1 or 2 more indicative of what to expect? 

As for Conner, what comparable RB1s do you think you might be able to trade him for? 

 

I don't understand why a (naive) owner would trade a RB1 for Conner.  That makes no sense and someone earlier said that Conner's injury history is baked into his trade value, which is true.