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2020 Buy Low/Sell High Thread


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52 minutes ago, phegotgame14 said:

What offers have you seen for Taylor? ( I have Taylor in an auction keeper league I got for $17)

Again, I found it ridiculous, but one was Mahomes and Thielen and the other was Mahomes and Evans. Both Taylor owners were leaning towards no. Personally I found that absurd. 

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I'm a bit leery of trying to pull off a twofer sell high with the COVID nonsense. Starting to feel depth is more valuable than studs this year.

This. Others seem to not to get it but it’s not our duty to explain. If I’m being told Ekeler is a sell high and Corey Davis is a buy low, then this thread is bonkers. That’s my perspective. 

You are my target market.

5 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Again, I found it ridiculous, but one was Mahomes and Thielen and the other was Mahomes and a low-end WR1, the specific player is escaping me right now. Both Taylor owners were leaning towards no. Personally I found that absurd. 

Too many variables: whos the teams other qb's and wr, is it a keeper league, dynasty league. Rb's are valuable than Qb's. Look at yesterday with Joe burrow...300 yards and 3 tds from someone you can add off the waiver wire putting up maholmes numbers

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50 minutes ago, phegotgame14 said:

Too many variables: whos the teams other qb's and wr, is it a keeper league, dynasty league. Rb's are valuable than Qb's. Look at yesterday with Joe burrow...300 yards and 3 tds from someone you can add off the waiver wire putting up maholmes numbers

They were redraft leagues. It's easy enough to measure value. Majority of leagues are 10-12 teamers. Evans and Mahomes were 2nd/3rd round picks. So these people are saying Taylor is worth more than a second and a third. I disagree. 

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22 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

They were redraft leagues. It's easy enough to measure value. Majority of leagues are 10-12 teamers. Evans and Mahomes were 2nd/3rd round picks. So these people are saying Taylor is worth more than a second and a third. I disagree. 

Taylor would go in the first round right after Helair

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4 hours ago, TuesdaymorningQB said:

Agreed that is definitely selling high and buying low, but probably no one with any FFootball savvy is going to trade away OBJ for Corey Davis. One challenge in buying low after 1 week is that the people you are trying to buy from are the people who went out of their way to draft the player you're trying to get. So you not only have to convince someone to part with OBJ after one week, but you have to convince someone who was higher on OBJ than most of the league when they drafted. Fantasy Football players do overreact a little to recency bias, but not enough to make bad trades after 1 week. It takes until about the 3rd or 4th week in the season for people to give up on the draft position where they took someone. Its hard to acquire a 3rd rounder for barely above waiver wire material after a one week sample of performances. Most FFootballers know that top players have bad weeks and so-so players blowup some weeks so its harder to exploit bad weeks of top players to part someone from a player they believed in more than the rest of the league when they drafted, than most of the suggested trades in this thread imply.  

Oh believe me, I understand all this, it's not my first time at the rodeo.

I merely brought up Corey Davis because there has been a discussion about what Buying Low and Selling High means, and Corey Davis was one of the examples.  Nobody will trade CD for OBJ in any league with competent players.  However, I read of some crazy Chubb for James Robinson and Chubb for Antonio Gibson trades that were going down.  Bet those Chubb owners feel like fools this morning.  So I guess it does happen.  Basically it happens when one person values Chubb really low and values James Robinson way higher than everyone else.  Certainly that person would not be in the majority.  

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I'm going to give a slightly different perspective, maybe helpful for some.

These are all players I have, and where I'm at if offers come in.  I'll try to provide some context as well.

- Ertz (3/7 teams; backups are Fant, Logan Thomas, Herndon): I'm at about 65% panic at the moment, so I'll definitely listen to offers.  A solid wr2 might be enough to get it done.  Maybe Diontae Johnson or better.  Marquis Brown would get it done, but I probably want to give it another week to be sure.

- Ingram (2/7; one with Dobbins, one without): I could be convinced pretty easily. Gibson, Swift, Landry?  Probably gonna get a yes.

- Jonathan Taylor (1/7; superflex with Mostert, Drake, Moss, Robinson also on roster): gonna take a godfather offer.  DaVante Adams?  Yes.  Julio, DHop?  Probably, but I'll have to think about it.  Beyond that, gotta package.

- Will Fuller (2/7): I'm listening, but we're still at a sell high point.

- Cooper Kupp (1/7, half ppr): are you offering me Woods straight up?  No?  Damn!  Okay, how about... Juju?

- AJ Brown (1/7, standard): Golladay, Evans, ARob, Mostert, Mixon all probably. Hunt too

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50 minutes ago, MeatyClackers said:

Someone offered me DJ Moore for Will Fuller in a PPR redraft.  I feel like Moore is a buy low and Fuller is a sell high.  I can’t call it.

I think if Fuller stays healthy all year he will have a better season. But that is playing a dangerous game 

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10 hours ago, MeatyClackers said:

Someone offered me DJ Moore for Will Fuller in a PPR redraft.  I feel like Moore is a buy low and Fuller is a sell high.  I can’t call it.

 

Yeah that's a good one. I think it might come down to what your team needs and your league settings - full PPR probably favors Moore, plus maybe you have solid guys like Woods and fancy the Fuller upside.

Definitely feels like Fuller might be sell high and Moore buy low though, agreed.

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Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

Except one of those receivers has one of the league's best young quarterbacks throwing him the ball.  And the other one has Teddy Bridgewater.

 

That's not why you're selling high on Fuller though. You're selling high because we're all waiting for the injury.

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32 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Except one of those receivers has one of the league's best young quarterbacks throwing him the ball.  And the other one has Bilgewater.

 

had to 😁

 

32 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

 

That's not why you're selling high on Fuller though. You're selling high because we're all waiting for the injury.

 

aaaand ... this ^

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33 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Except one of those receivers has one of the league's best young quarterbacks throwing him the ball.  And the other one has Teddy Bridgewater.

But you don’t need Bridgewater to be Mahomes/Watson.  You just need him to be Andy Dalton (to your AJG), Kirk Cousins (to your Theilien/Diggs), or Eli in his twilight (to your OBJ).  Bridgewater is wholly capable of that, with one of the top 3 most dangerous running backs in the backfield to keep the defense honest.  
 

Moore has the right mix of very high PPR upside and a seemingly safe floor. Fuller’s ceiling is top 5, but until he shows he can play 16 games, it’s just as easy to assume that number is 10 games.

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If Drake has another “meh” game against that tough WAS front 7, gonna try to get him. The owner wanted Hurst from me on draft day, so if all goes right Sunday for Hurst I’m gonna offer him Mixon/Hurst for Drake/Engram. Think I have a chance at getting that accepted

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2 hours ago, FeastMode said:

But you don’t need Bridgewater to be Mahomes/Watson.  You just need him to be Andy Dalton (to your AJG), Kirk Cousins (to your Theilien/Diggs), or Eli in his twilight (to your OBJ).  Bridgewater is wholly capable of that, with one of the top 3 most dangerous running backs in the backfield to keep the defense honest.  
 

 

Any of these fellows would do the trick...and would have been massive upgrades to super scrub Kyle Allen...with whom DJ managed to finish 8th in receiving yards last year.  Let's not forget he's only 23 years old - his career arc should still be on the way up!

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Buy low

james robinson- getting high end volume but people arent going to value him as high as they should because hes an unknown name. Team loves him. Top 20 back if he stays healthy with upside for more.

deandre swift- injury slowed his start but hes by far the best back in the backfield and volume will come as he continues to outperform johnson and peterson

Miles sanders- many already unhappy he missed week one. He likely will be eased in and not have an amazing game this week. Capitalize on a panicking owner, sanders has top 5 rb upside but he likely wont get the volume to show it this week

 

 

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15 hours ago, MeatyClackers said:

Someone offered me DJ Moore for Will Fuller in a PPR redraft.  I feel like Moore is a buy low and Fuller is a sell high.  I can’t call it.

Heh I think this is a great example of why "buy low sell high" is great in theory but hard to do in practice. Moore had an ADP of 29 in 0.5 ppr and Fuller had an ADP of 76 (at least according to fantasypros 0.5 PPR), which should make this a no-brainer, and yet here we are.

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8 hours ago, TuckAndRolle said:

Heh I think this is a great example of why "buy low sell high" is great in theory but hard to do in practice. Moore had an ADP of 29 in 0.5 ppr and Fuller had an ADP of 76 (at least according to fantasypros 0.5 PPR), which should make this a no-brainer, and yet here we are.


another example that draft capital doesn’t really matter after week 1.

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50 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:


another example that draft capital doesn’t really matter after week 1.

Yeah, agreed. My point is mainly that this seems like a great "sell high / buy low" opportunity but it's not that straightforward - people value Fuller more than they did last week, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're overvaluing him now

Edit: I only skimmed the previous seven pages but I think I might be bordering on restating some of the earlier arguments on buy high / sell low etc. My bad

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On 9/18/2020 at 11:35 PM, Breesus said:

I think if Fuller stays healthy all year he will have a better season. But that is playing a dangerous game 

If Fuller doesn’t miss any games, he’ll end up borderline top 12

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10 hours ago, JaylenBrownFanclub said:

Buy low

james robinson- getting high end volume but people arent going to value him as high as they should because hes an unknown name. Team loves him. Top 20 back if he stays healthy with upside for more.

deandre swift- injury slowed his start but hes by far the best back in the backfield and volume will come as he continues to outperform johnson and peterson

Miles sanders- many already unhappy he missed week one. He likely will be eased in and not have an amazing game this week. Capitalize on a panicking owner, sanders has top 5 rb upside but he likely wont get the volume to show it this week

 

 


Would u offer conner to get swift?

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