Younghoe Koo 2020 Outlook

[TTo34 2,956]

 

[USWAY 366]

Legendary

[lolcopter 7,890]

NFL's leading scorer with 133 points, K1 overall, and HE MISSED A GAME

you know I'll be reaching on Koo next season. A true champion 🏆

[codyodea 351]

Fun stat: Koo is on 100% of the fantasy teams playing in the championship rounds.

[USWAY 366]

Ouch. Hope this drives down his draft price next year though.

[Gamecubesupreme 632]

Just now, USWAY said:

Ouch. Hope this drives down his draft price next year though.

It is unlikely to change 

[shakestreet 4,113]

Scoring only 2 pts in the championship game .. 😆😀😀

[Sternes 5,010]

You could feel something bad was going to happen when ATL didn't try to pickup yards and was chucking it deep at the end even though they had TO.

• 1st & 10 at KC 26

  (0:32 - 4th) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to C.Ridley. PENALTY on KC-A.Okafor, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at KC 26 - No Play. Penalty on KC, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.

• 1st & 5 at KC 21

  (0:27 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to R.Gage.

• 2nd & 5 at KC 21

  (0:23 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Ryan pass incomplete middle [F.Clark].

• 3rd & 5 at KC 21

  (0:19 - 4th) (Shotgun) M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to C.Ridley [A.Okafor].

• 4th & 5 at KC 21

  (0:14 - 4th) Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-J.Harris, Holder-S.Hofrichter.

[Braves16 550]

Not koo, dude. 

[ZappB 656]

The regular season is finally over.  Let's see how our boy Koo did.  This is based on Yahoo scoring:

 

Total Points

Sanders - 172

Koo - 168 (missed a game)

Bass - 157

Carlson - 155

Zuerlein - 153

Blankenship - 150

Succop - 145

Tucker - 145

Santos - 139

Myers - 138

McManus - 136

Lutz - 135 (didn't realize how bad of a year Lutz had)

Butker - 134 (didn't realize how bad of a year Butker had)

 

Average Points

Tristan Vizcaino - 12.00 (only played week 17, not really counting this)

Koo - 11.20

Sanders - 10.75

Bass - 9.81

Carlson - 9.69

Zuerlein - 9.56

Gay - 9.43 (played seven games)

Blankenship - 9.38

McManus - 9.07

Tucker - 9.06

Succop - 9.06

Santos - 8.69

Myers - 8.63

Lutz - 8.44

Butker - 8.38

 

Results

Koo finished #2 for total points and #1 for average points if we throw out Vizcaino's one game.  If Koo didn't miss a game due to injury, it's not guaranteed Koo finishes as #1 for total points.  In fact, Elliott Fry scored 4 points for Atlanta in the game Koo missed, so if we added Fry's points to Koo, this would result in a tie with Sanders for total and average points.  

 

Conclusion

DRAFT KOO EVERYWHERE FOR 2021!!!!!!

[CooL 3,267]

On 1/4/2021 at 5:21 PM, ZappB said:

The regular season is finally over.  Let's see how our boy Koo did.  This is based on Yahoo scoring:

 

Total Points

Sanders - 172

Koo - 168 (missed a game)

Bass - 157

Carlson - 155

Zuerlein - 153

Blankenship - 150

Succop - 145

Tucker - 145

Santos - 139

Myers - 138

McManus - 136

Lutz - 135 (didn't realize how bad of a year Lutz had)

Butker - 134 (didn't realize how bad of a year Butker had)

 

Average Points

Tristan Vizcaino - 12.00 (only played week 17, not really counting this)

Koo - 11.20

Sanders - 10.75

Bass - 9.81

Carlson - 9.69

Zuerlein - 9.56

Gay - 9.43 (played seven games)

Blankenship - 9.38

McManus - 9.07

Tucker - 9.06

Succop - 9.06

Santos - 8.69

Myers - 8.63

Lutz - 8.44

Butker - 8.38

 

Results

Koo finished #2 for total points and #1 for average points if we throw out Vizcaino's one game.  If Koo didn't miss a game due to injury, it's not guaranteed Koo finishes as #1 for total points.  In fact, Elliott Fry scored 4 points for Atlanta in the game Koo missed, so if we added Fry's points to Koo, this would result in a tie with Sanders for total and average points.  

 

Conclusion

DRAFT KOO EVERYWHERE FOR 2021!!!!!!

While I owned the Youngway and was happy to have had him, I think your list shows what a crapshoot kicker can be.  Going to guess that Tucker, Butker, and Lutz were the top 3 kickers drafted.  And look where they ended up.  They are good kickers tied to good offenses.  So why are they so low?  Were they always kicking XPs while Koo and Sanders were on less efficient teams and had more FGs?  Likely yes, although I haven't looked at the data too carefully.  So should the thinking then be to look for these marginal offenses?  What happens if the offense is just plain bad and never scores at all?  What happens if Matt Ryan returns to form and then they start scoring TDs again?    Just so hard to project.

I think the only Conclusion that you can safely come away with is that you shouldn't draft a kicker until the last round ever.

[ZappB 656]

6 hours ago, CooL said:

While I owned the Youngway and was happy to have had him, I think your list shows what a crapshoot kicker can be.  Going to guess that Tucker, Butker, and Lutz were the top 3 kickers drafted.  And look where they ended up.  They are good kickers tied to good offenses.  So why are they so low?  Were they always kicking XPs while Koo and Sanders were on less efficient teams and had more FGs?  Likely yes, although I haven't looked at the data too carefully.  So should the thinking then be to look for these marginal offenses?  What happens if the offense is just plain bad and never scores at all?  What happens if Matt Ryan returns to form and then they start scoring TDs again?    Just so hard to project.

I think the only Conclusion that you can safely come away with is that you shouldn't draft a kicker until the last round ever.

Those are all valid points.  Off the top of my head regarding the top drafted kickers going into 2020, and quickly looking at stats:

 

Butker: KC may have been more efficient with scoring TDs.  KC scored 451 points in 2019 and 473 points this year, so perhaps Butker kicked a lot of XPs, though from a quick look Butker didn't actually score the most XPs.  He's 7th with 48 XPs.  Bass is actually 2nd with 57 XPs.  The top ten for kicking XPs were: Crosby, Lutz, Bass, Succop, Tucker, Myers, Butker, Gostkowski, Carlson, Blankenship.

Lutz: Weeks 11 through 15 were pretty bad, he averaged 4.6 points for that span, which coincides with Taysom Hill starting.  Brees did start week 15, but then again Brees was coming back from injury.  New Orleans scored 458 points last year and 482 this year so it doesn't look like an issue of NO's offense being bad this year.

Tucker: Baltimore scored 531 points last year and 468 this year.  It seems self-evident that the offense regressed.

 

One thing I recalled going into the 2020 draft was that  in 2019 Koo was one of the top kickers, if not the top, after joining the Falcons.  So it's a question of whether you think Atlanta's offense and bad defense will be the same next year.  

My general Kicker strategy is to target offenses that I think will be "pretty good" if I'm not targeting one of the top ranked kickers.  The general idea is if you think the offense will be good enough to drive down the field but may stall a lot in their opponent's territory.  I don't have an exact science for it.

Edited January 7 by ZappB

[Hexar 2]

I think Koo will bait a lot of people with all of the extra talk he's received. Kickers are still kickers and drafting before the last few rounds isn't great. I'd rather load up on backups or rookies before reaching on Koo.

[Nap Time 1,041]

The Falcons offense was 26th in red zone TD percentage.  Unlikely to repeat.

[kdko 1,192]

Was about to rage on him for the week 16 performance, but was a joy to have him on my roster this year.  Every year you strike gold with a kicker is a great feeling, too bad it's hard to predict.  He's about a good a bet as any considering Ryan's red zone ineptness though.